I don’t think we have any new GB polls today, but we did have a new Scottish poll from YouGov in this morning’s Times. Topline figures are SNP 42%(+1), CON 29%(+1), LAB 19%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1).

This is the first poll since the local elections and doesn’t show any obvious impact from them – the SNP remainly safely ahead, the Conservatives are clearly the second placed party and there does not appear to have been any real movement since the last poll. Tabs are here.


317 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll – SNP 42, CON 29, LAB 19, LDEM 6”

1 2 3 4 5 7
  1. @ROBIN
    I wouldn’t get too exercised about anecdotes of overheard conversations from people who start their comment with “I work in the city” or “I work in a hospital”. People do this to try to give their story more credence, especially if it is impossible to check. These stories are put out to put the worst possible spin on the policy being discussed in order to discredit whoever has proposed it. They are a kind of project fear offering no proof of the particular allegation but seeking to reinforce people’s prejudices.

  2. Looking at the national polls does anyone else think the Tory attack on winter fuel payments, Tripple lock and social care is going to make a dent in there vote?

    From my view Labour are hitting this hard, I think this was a huge mistake from the Torys and is going to hit there vote short by a good number of points, Just seems to me there trying to give Labour a chance.

    I guess the next few polls will tell. Fieldwork will have to be done from 19th onwards to give us a good view.

  3. Labour going strong on the door in London

    Saying TM is breaking up the NHS .They are saying at their stall that this is the end of the NHS, saying the Tories removing Dementia from free treatment is only the beginning of charges saying that they will bring a array of new charges.

    The Tories are saying at their stall

  4. @couper2802: “I am not convince this Crosby onslaught on Corbyn will work surely it’s already priced in?”

    It certainly isn’t aimed at getting in new voters. Anyone paying attention already long knows it. Also:

    a. We live in a world where tributes were paid to Martin McGuiness, and whose somewhat closer links to the IRA were almost seen as youthful indiscretion. Corbyn’s political sympathies with the Republicans is minor – he has never even had anyone slapped let alone knee capped.

    b. For the young voters, they did not grow up with the IRA. They have grown up with IRA people being treated as peacemakers, and the establishment talking of “threats to the peace process” as though there were understandable reasons why the Republicans might start it up again.

    It may galvanise the Tory base – convince pensioners that there are more important things than getting unsustainable transfers of wealth from the young.

    Anyway, an odd election where Tories having a 13 point lead and 45% in one poll is seen as a potential crisis.

  5. Labour going strong on the door in London
    Saying TM is breaking up the NHS .They are saying at their stall that this is the end of the NHS, saying the Tories removing Dementia from free treatment is only the beginning of charges saying that they will bring a array of new charges.

    The Tories are saying at their stall it will not affect how much you leave to your children inheritance to your children for most people , having trouble defending it,but are getting alot of support over immigration.

    Interesting day in the Market.

  6. LMZDEE

    There’s no attack I don’t think. Just an attempt – for which the policies may or may not be the right ones – to face the economic realities of our ageing population, which up to now no party’s had the guts to do, or even admitted that it’s a huge problem.

    1. The Winter Fuel payments – those that really need this should be protected, but the devil will be in the detail. No reasonable unbiased person would roundly conclude that they aim to take this away from needy people.

    2. Triple lock – this remains until 2020, after which it becomes a ‘double lock’. Still a good commitment by historical standards, though I feel they communicated this one badly and possibly may have got the wind up pensioners totally unnecessarily. Ironic given that there will probably be no changes to growth in pensions during the new parliament compared to keeping the triple lock!

    3. Social care – again the devil will be in the detail. Some may switch back to Labour to ‘send a message’, or out of a vague concern through not understanding the policy. However, on this one particularly out of the three you mention, I believe there is much more recognition from the public that Theresa May deserves some credit for starting to get to grips with a difficult problem that is only getting worse as time goes on. I don’t think this policy alone would net many vote losses.

    But you may be correct that, taken together, and with the attacks from the Opposition (who incidentally haven’t stated what their alternative solutions would be!), they may well lose a few %. Ironically more so if they continue the policy of more or less ignoring the Opposition during the campaign as part of demonstrating who the ‘grown-ups’ are.

    Ultimately come 8th June, the effects in terms of votes from all this will come down to the perceived motives of the government, and whether TM has sustained the high levels of goodwill from the electorate that she has had up to now that will allow people to ‘give her the chance’ that she asks for. My guess is that these policies will have at least solidified the Labour core vote so that it turns out at the levels indicated by the polls on the day rather than evaporating somewhat like in 2015.

  7. @ ROBIN
    The quote you posted is just a a type of urban myth post, full of classic myth indicators like the words: “just seen this post online” when no such post actually existed.

    They get shared as memes amongst those who want them to be true – the definition of an echo chamber and how “fake news” gets born.

  8. @ CMJ – thank you, very helpful

  9. Redrich

    Good for you !

    All one can do is one’s best.

    If a hundred people do that, we have a movement !

  10. @Johnmo,

    So fed up of labours line against Cons on NHS. Has anybody read the manifestos?!!
    Real terms increase over next parliament promised;
    Conservatives £8bn
    Labour £7bn
    LD £6bn

    Straight from each manifesto.

  11. Rich

    Sadly, Labour seem to be Trumpifying this campaign much more heavily than any of the parties usually do, with their unfounded claims made with much vigour.

    There is a danger that, like with Trump vs Clinton, it may have some success in improving polling numbers.

    It’s not a great indictment of their own policies that they are going full Trump instead of promoting them.

  12. @BT

    I just don’t think its a smart move to have policys that are anti your core vote. Im not saying its the wrong thing to do, If any benefit needed to be means tested its the winter fuel payments.

    Labour are going to town on this and are going to pick up some votes from it. I can just really see this hurting the Torys a lot and these projections of 100+ Majority dieing off. So much so Ive put a bet on Labour being 200+ seats

  13. Scottish Liberal targets – all odds-on in the betting markets!

    Edinburgh West
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131279667
    Dunbartonshire East
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131279539
    Fife North East
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131279701

    Anyone running a model or using Electoral Calculus will have the first two as good chance but Fife North East is a surprise to see SLIB. Any specific seat factors?

    Personally I’m not so sure the CON tactical vote support that looked present in 2015 for the first two can be relied upon this time. In 2015 a SLIB-CON grassroots tactical vote made sense as the two parties had similar views on the Indy issue. Brexit throws a spanner in that for 2017?

    Anyone any view on whether Ruth’s call for SLAB tactical vote will gain much interest (above any interest it received in 2015)? Lots of seats where it could make a crucial difference

    Given the difference in the Union parties at a UK level I see a risk we get less tactical voting than 2015 and SNP hang on to more seats than UNS models predict.

  14. BT SAYS “Social care – a vague concern through not understanding the policy. ”

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/19/jez-not-understand-tory-social-care-policy/
    Here is Jeremy Corbyn speaking on the Tory social care policy this morning. He says:
    “What the Conservatives are doing is to put a £100,000 cap on social care which actually goes nowhere near meeting the needs of somebody with extreme conditions can easily spend £50,000 a year on their care. It’s completely unrealistic, what they’re doing. We will make sure social care is properly funded.”

  15. Good morning all from a sunny Winchester.

    OLDNAT

    Allan Christie

    The Green vote will be interesting in Glasgow North, where Pat Harvie is the candidate.

    Not that he will win, but I can see him eating into the SNP vote, and with a number of ex Slab folk in Maryhill shifting to SCon, I wouldn’t be amazed if the SGP pushes SLab into 4th place behind SNP, SCon, and SGP.
    _____________

    If Labour falls to 4th spot in a Glasgow seat at a GE then that would show just how much the party has disintegrated.

    Wee Pat will pick up a few thousand votes in Glasgow North but he needs to get em students out of their beds.I think Labour will still come in second but they will lose about 40% of their 2015 vote.

  16. Who mentioned Orkney & Shetland?

    It’s a long shot for an SNP gain but after 2015 election many voters on Orkney & Shetland were less than impressed with their MP when he was caught out lying and involved a court visit.

    That may well be a factor in this election.

  17. Rich,

    i am reporting what they are saying at my Farmers Market.

    Labour are saying , its simple the

    NHS IS OVER
    If you own your own house , you will pay for more and more health and social care when you retire.

    Tories are saying we will reduce immigration to 10,000 per year.

    Maybe neither are true

  18. From a Local Paper – The Newcastle Evening Chronicle

    http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/voting-poll-reveals-conservatives-could-13032196

    “A survey has indicated that a former safe Labour North East seat could fall to the Tories in the general election.

    The North East still intends to vote Labour in the upcoming General Election but an exclusive survey for ChronicleLive shows that the Tories lead in the North West Durham constituency – which has been held by Labour since it was created in 1950.

    As it stands, 23.7% of those surveyed in the area said they would vote Labour, while 26.9% responded they intended to choose the Conservatives.

    Our data, which had more than 6,000 respondents, showed that Sunderland Central, another safe Labour seat, could also turn blue.”

  19. Well listening to LBC and 2 pensioners rang up furious at changes Cons are doing. Bit worrying. They don’t like the social care changes or the winter fuel disparity to Scotland. This manifesto might be risky. School meals another one not going down well. Wish they had cut international development instead..that would have won votes.

  20. LmzDee

    Looking at the national polls does anyone else think the Tory attack on winter fuel payments, Tripple lock and social care is going to make a dent in there vote?
    _____________

    It’s for these reasons I’m holding off my predictions for the GE. I want to see what impact the Tory manifesto will have on polling but my guess is that with the Tories so far ahead in the polls, any negative impact from the proposals you’ve highlighted will be extremely limited.

  21. @northernruralmodeoman

    That’s a dodgy voodoo poll, unweighted and and unrepresentative.

    I believe that paper ran some very dodgy Referendum polls too.

    I would ignore it.

  22. Re NHS,

    Labour is new money on top of announced increases, Tories includes stuff already announced for next couple of years so lower.

    Still main point stands there is little in the headline spending commitments between the 2.

  23. There are manifesto promises, Acts of Parliament, and budgets. I’ll judge on the latter two (or on past examples of the former)

  24. @LmzDee
    Looking at the national polls does anyone else think the Tory attack on winter fuel payments, Triple lock and social care is going to make a dent in there vote?”

    Winter fuel payments – No. It’s not that much money and it will be means tested anyway.

    Triple lock – No. People in general will not understand the difference between the Triple Lock and the proposed Double Lock. Too technical for most voters.

    Social care – This is the biggie. It’s already being called the “Dementia Tax”, and could rebound spectacularly on the Conservatives. However, to become an electorally significant issue:
    (i) the Opposition parties will need to find a simple way of explaining how these changes will affect the estates of homeowners relying on social care; and
    (ii) the insurance element will need to be exposed.

  25. Weekend polls tonight will be VERY interesting. For me this might be a high water mark for Labour before the Tories go hard on Comrade Corbyn and past history/Iinks etc.

  26. Interesting what TM is doing with the manifesto which IMO is the opposite of Labour buying votes, There was an article in the Times a week or so ago which suggested that she should spend some “political capital” in the manifesto by suggesting some difficult policies. So she removes the triple lock, changes social care does not guarantee no tax rises etc. If that is what she has done then that.’s an honest approach I think. One of the problems of our system is that government ignores the problems that should be addressed because in doing so they would lose votes.Hence the kicking into the long grass by successive governments most aspects of our ageing population and increased longevity e.g. changes to pension age, increased dependence on the NHS.

  27. Agree Rich. The opposition parties always close the gap at this point, the big guns get turned on and come Election Day we’ll finish off with polling similar to the end of April

  28. RAF “People in general will not understand the difference between the Triple Lock and the proposed Double Lock. Too technical for most voters.”
    After 2020 the guarantee of 2.5% goes. The inflation and earnings links stay.
    Is that really so hard?

  29. GB
    I agree, I’m sure that many are in Labour would like to remove the triple lock and have the flexibility to increase NI or income tax, but Labour would never get away with making those changes.
    Imagine the headlines if Corbyn had announced them!

  30. Pensioners like me receiving the winter fuel payment, but not needing it, know they don’t NEED it.
    Pensioners like me may remember their mother counting how many copper pennies were left in her purse at the end of every week, and the winter of 1947.
    I remember being told off for throwing a piece of paper on the fire (a bed of red coals) because it made a flame and increased the rate the coal was used up.

  31. The issue is that Dementia is an illness, other illnesses are treated free at the point of delivery.

  32. Dave
    There are manifesto promises, Acts of Parliament, and budgets. I’ll judge on the latter two (or on past examples of the former)

    Unless you’re an MP you don’t get to vote on those. All we have is the manifesto promises and previous form. TM wants the Conservatives to change direction, I think that’s the point of the election, so the form guide isn’t that much use as his time.

  33. Its not that people won’t understand these things it how Labour attack them that will dent the Torys, Dropping the tripple lock sounds bad even thought he double lock isn’t much difference,

    Labour are all ready telling everyone its 10 million that will lose out on the fuel payments and the Torys don’t have numbers to say how many it will be.

    The social care is being called a dementia tax which sounds bad.

    I just feel all this could make the election close, I all ready feel the polls understate Labour and overstae the Torys for the first time in a while.

    The youth turn out will be up this time as Corbyn has really got them going and they turn up in bigger number during the EU ref. I know this is always said about the youth vote but I feel this time i will happen

  34. rich

    Weekend polls tonight will be VERY interesting. For me this might be a high water mark for Labour before the Tories go hard on Comrade Corbyn and past history/Iinks etc
    _____________________

    Yeah, that’s what will happen. The Tories see a dip in VI then bring up stuff totally irrelevant to everyday matters. The majority of the media will also jump on the past Corby stuff but hopefully, voters will source their info via social media where it’s a more even platform.

    The Tories will win big at this election but they will not win over 50% of the popular vote and if turnout is low then legitimacy comes into play. How can 1 party have so much power when the vast majority of people either didn’t vote or vote for TM?

    This whole election is about giving TM a strong madate for Brexit and despite the fact that she is on course to win a large majority, if only around 36% of those “eligible”to vote, vote for her then surely legitimacy comes into play?

    .

  35. “vote for her then surely legitimacy comes into play?”

    You can shout legitimacy as much as you like. What can you do about it?

    Those who choose not to vote accede to the result by default. It’s seen as a ‘with the floor’ vote because we have no ‘none of the above’ on the ballots.

  36. RAF

    I wasn’t really saying that i agree with the social care changes just that they are probably, on balance, going to be unpopular and therefore were a risky item to be in a manifesto. In contrast I can’t see any hard decisions being made in the Labour offering which is deliberately aimed at popular policies designed to be vote winners (unless you are in the top 5% of earners …).The don’t frighten the horses approach has dishonestly IMO not spelled out things like the real Labour intentions on defence and immigration/freedom of movement which only now and again you get a hint of e.g. Thornberry yesterday on Trident

  37. LmzDee

    All of what you have said, is said every election it seems, and it never happens.

    I could see Labour doing rather well (Compared to expectations) in terms of votes. 32-33% at most, however they will do very badly in terms of seats. UKIP falling away to the Conservative party is the major issue, where this hurts Labour is where there are very few Lib Dem votes to squeeze their way.

    Looks a quite horrendous sight for Labour in my opinion.

  38. AC

    How is it not relevant to everyday matters when we are choosing a PM to lead us through Brexit negotiations and to run the country for 5 years.

    Corbyn has a history( which many people dislike) – surely it is relevant to whether he is trusted( the polls currently say not) to lead.

  39. Cloudspotter.
    I know I don’t get a direct vote on Acts of Parliament and budgets. But I can judge from the proposals in them whether manifesto promises are being implemented, whether those were realistic, or just vote catching devices. Until a government’s actual programme appears, there is not much to go on. But you can remember next time you do have a vote.

  40. @Allan Christie

    Did you say the same thing about Tony Blair in 1997 or is it only Conservative landslides you have a problem with? Tony Blair and Labour achieved 43.2% of the popular vote on a turnout of 71.3% and won 418 seats, a working majority of 178.

  41. The trumpification is worrying

    I’ve had 2 “websites” shared on my Facebook feed, both looking like official NHS documents, one shows £110 charge to see you’re GP in Devon and the other mandatory health insurance.

    When challenged as fake, they disappeared only to resurface a few days latter different poster different domain

  42. Neil Wilson

    You can shout legitimacy as much as you like. What can you do about it?

    Those who choose not to vote accede to the result by default. It’s seen as a ‘with the floor’ vote because we have no ‘none of the above’ on the ballot
    ______________

    That’s true and I hold that exact view but you have to remember why this snap election was called. TM wanted a stronger hand in dealing with Brexit. It’s the biggest constitutional issue to hit the country since the Irish gave us the boot. Surely the majority of the country will get behind TM and legitimise her rallying call?

    It’s far too big an issue for the Tories to be playing silly buggers with regarding Corby’s past links to mythical Irish lepricorns. I want to know how trade talks are going? Our stance on Syria, immigration taggarts and so on.

  43. Julius

    @Allan Christie

    Did you say the same thing about Tony Blair in 1997 or is it only Conservative landslides you have a problem with? Tony Blair and Labour achieved 43.2% of the popular vote on a turnout of 71.3% and won 418 seats, a working majority of 178
    _______________

    I’ve been posting on UKPR for about 5 years now, I’m sure other long-time posters will know that I did indeed say the same thing about Tony Blair and please don’t mistaken me for a Blair supporter.

  44. @ NEIL WILSON
    “Those who choose not to vote accede to the result by default. It’s seen as a ‘with the floor’ vote because we have no ‘none of the above’ on the ballots.”
    Agreed, except that you can always write “None of the above” on your ballot paper. If that were widespread, and got more ‘votes’ than the ‘winner’ it would be hard for the ‘winner’ to claim legitimacy. At 60% turnout, we might not be far from that.

  45. Imagine if Labour had announced that if you need care in the home anything you own over 100k including your house could be taken for your care.I am sure The Daily Mail and others would have said it was a courageous and good policy and the polls would have reflected that.

  46. Andy T

    AC

    How is it not relevant to everyday matters when we are choosing a PM to lead us through Brexit negotiations and to run the country for 5 years.

    Corbyn has a history( which many people dislike) – surely it is relevant to whether he is trusted( the polls currently say not) to lead
    __________________

    I’m actually finding myself in the default position of defending ol Corby which was not my intention.

    Yes, Corby has a history many people don’t like but why not promote your own vision for the country instead of stuff decades old? I mean some of the stuff that’s being bounded about happened before I was even born!!

  47. Sea Change
    Many thanks for reminding me of that YPM sketch. Wonderful stuff. What a series that was.

  48. @Dez,

    Silly comment that could be applied to Daily Mirror, Socialist worker, Independent vice vers. Papers reflect their readers views, which is why Mail and Sun do what they do. There are lots of left wing alternatives, the problem is not enough people want to buy them.

  49. It is certainly true that Labour is severely constrained by the hostile press when it comes to policies.

    https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/

    However, there would have been some protection against it had not all credible advisers been – well, let go.

  50. @allan Christie,

    I agree, apart from the social media point, which is worse than printed media for fake news. I made a point earlier that Tories are committing more money for the NHS than Lab and LD manifestos, yet social media says Tories want to drive it in to the grounds. It’s pure propaganda.

    Rich

1 2 3 4 5 7