I don’t think we have any new GB polls today, but we did have a new Scottish poll from YouGov in this morning’s Times. Topline figures are SNP 42%(+1), CON 29%(+1), LAB 19%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1).

This is the first poll since the local elections and doesn’t show any obvious impact from them – the SNP remainly safely ahead, the Conservatives are clearly the second placed party and there does not appear to have been any real movement since the last poll. Tabs are here.


317 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll – SNP 42, CON 29, LAB 19, LDEM 6”

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  1. ROB
    “Its effectively an inheritance tax”
    It’s not an inheritance tax because if you have not asked the state to provide care, you have nothing to pay for. It is a deferred payment for social care services.
    Consider Mr A with a £300,000 estate (so not liable to pay Inheritance tax.)
    He has a heart attack and dies suddenly. His estate is distributed in accordance with his will.
    Mr B has a similar £300,000 state and suffers a stroke. He survives, but is partially paralysed and needs residential care. That costs £250,000 until he dies. £200,000 is recovered by the state from his estate, but he is allowed to keep the last £100,000 (considerably more than at present).

    It’s not fair, but then neither were the outcomes of heart attack and stroke.
    Something has to be done, and at least the problems are being discussed.

    Consider Mr C, also with £300,000 estate. He suffers a fall, needs a mobility scooter which he buys, and considerable help for some months, provided by his son and daughter-in-law, who gives up her part-time job to care for him for six months. Like Mr A, he has no liability to the state. Mr C alters his will to give to his daughter-in-law the £5,000 he had intended to leave to cancer research in memory of his deceased wife.

    Life is complicated, and decisions may be very personal.

    Mr D has an estate worth £500,000, has no dependents, and leaves all his money to various charities, but needs care in his own home and in a residential home at the end of his life, costing £250,000.
    Who is first in line for his money? HMRC for inheritance tax? 40% of £160,000 = £64,000? Or the care system, for £250,000, which would take his net estate below the IHT threshold, and allow the charities rather more benefit?

  2. Between 1997 and 2015 it tended to be relevant to talk about the respective parties floors and ceilings in terms of share of the vote and seats. Brexit, Indyref, the coalition and Corbyn have rendered all of those previous assumptions largely out of date.

    Nonetheless, in Scotland there is a four party system – Labour’s share is too high to dismiss them as a relevant factor despite their bleak prospects under FPTP in Scotland, and on these numbers the Lib Dems could quite realistically get three times as many seats as Labour on less than a third of Labour’s vote.

    The point to that pre-amble? In a four party system, I struggle to see how the Tories can realistically build on whatever it is that they do in this election. The SNP will clearly fall back on 2015 (though still IMO do better than Labour in 2010). But I would assume that after that, seat changes in future elections would be few and far between, much like it was from 2001 to 2010, unless for some reason Labour or the Lib Dems make significant progress.

    Such an improvement for the latter parties could in some circumstances be superb for the Tories in terms of seats (if the reason for it were voters falling out of love with the SNP or feeling that they were a wasted vote at Westminster, and ironically allowing the Tories to sneak constituencies through the middle).

    But in terms of share, I’d have thought 30% give or take really must be the Conservatives’ ceiling, given the relatively stable positions of the Scottish electorate on the union, whether closer ties should be maintained with the EU, and their differing positions on tax and spend and on immigration compared to England and Wales.

  3. I’m not convinced the approach Labour is taking is just aimed at galvanising their core vote. Many of the policies, appear to be aimed at giving those who haven’t bothered to turn out something to vote for. Not sure if the polls are picking those people up, given the weighting for likely good to vole which most of them seem to employ.

  4. Hireton – “I wonder if the “Dementia Tax” label will.stick as well as the “Bedroom Tax”?”

    I think the left will continue to use it as much as possible.

    It’s worth noting that in the lead up to the 2015 general election, Labour banged on and on about the bedroom tax and the result was the Conservatives moving from largest party status to winning an outright majority!

  5. MIKE @ Redrich
    Labour seems to have been able to neutralise the Brexit question for the moment, or had it neutralised for them by a large chunk of the Remain vote accepting that Brexit will and should happen.

    Well put. It’s for that reason that I don’t foresee all the ex-UKIP vote going Con. A majority of them, perhaps, but Lab are likely to get a decent share of the spoils too.

    REDRICH

    Agreed, at least for E&W.

  6. @rich

    or – alternatively – a horrible policy?

    But, we are here primarily to discuss polling and what influences public opinion.

    The reception to the tory social care plan look like being a massive raspberry. No matter the rights and wrongs of the policy – its very easy for the opposition parties to depict this as a pretty serious assault on older peoples assets that seems to treat people differently depending on their medical condition – hence labels like “dementia tax” .

    Politically it seems to make no sense – it has dominated all the other things in the manifesto and its a gift to tory critics – it plays straight into the “nasty party” image – as well as highlighting fears of creeping privatisation of the NHS – and it attacks the group in society most likely to vote and most likely to vote tory.

    Are they that sure of their poll lead they think they can do this without serious consequence? It smacks of extreme arrogance and complacency.

  7. Looking at the ORB summary and data tables.

    Following Labour’s manifesto launch on Tuesday 16th, there has been a slight increase in Labour support shown in this week’s ORB poll. 34% now say they will vote for Jeremy Corbyn, up from 32% last week. There is an increase in the number of 2015 Labour voters who now say they will vote Labour again. (78% last week, 82% this week).

    Remain voters

    In ORB’s voting intention poll four weeks ago, only 26% of Remain respondents said they would vote for Theresa May, and this has slowly increased to 30% this week. There has also been a fall in Remain supporters voting for the Lib Dems – support has fallen from 19% of Remain voters at the end of April (26th – 27th) to 12% this week.

    Leave voters

    Leave voting intentions have remained fairly stable – hovering around the 60% mark for Conservatives for the past three weeks, and 20% for Labour.

    http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/additional-questions-19th-may-1.pdf

    The Lib Dems are facing a truly dire night if this pattern continues. Those taxi jokes could easily become a reality. I thought Vince Cable was actually very honest about the nation’s finances on QT but was clearly quite subdued and I suspect he doesn’t rate his chances of a comeback in Twickenham.

    Also 25% of Labour 2015 voters want to see the party split if Corbyn remains after the GE. Politics is not likely to get boring anytime soon!

  8. Without Scotland and a strong Liberal Democrats in the south west, Labour haven’t got a chance of winning an election again IMHO. Even if Corbs gets close to Blair’s 35% share in 2005 (which of course gave him a healthy majority) the votes will be in the wrong places and I can see them coming a close second to CON+UKIP in many of their old seats.

  9. @JOSEPH1832

    “The charge for dementia care and the like is not a tax. It is a payment for services”

    Isn’t every tax a payment for services?

  10. @Lewblew

    That’s a strong possibility.

  11. REGGIESIDE @rich
    Politically it seems to make no sense – it has dominated all the other things in the manifesto and its a gift to tory critics – it plays straight into the “nasty party” image – as well as highlighting fears of creeping privatisation of the NHS – and it attacks the group in society most likely to vote and most likely to vote tory.

    I suppose it’s possible that May thinks there’s no way of getting a reasonable deal and actually wants to pass the poisoned chalice of EU negotiations to Corbyn to give her successor a fair wind at the next GE.

  12. Regarding the Opinium net approval ratings:

    Theresa May has gone from +15 on 10 May to +17 on 20 May

    Corbyn has gone from -28 on 10 May to -18 on 20 May

    Farron was -21 on 10 May and is still -21 on 20 May

    Nuttal has gone from -38 on 10 May to -36 on 20 May

    Big improvement from Corbyn, but Mrs May moved up too. Farron now rates as worse than Corbyn, it’ll be fair to conclude that the public have taken a dislike to him and he’s a drag on the LibDems.

  13. @SYZYGY
    Apologies if you thought I was being critical of you – that was not intention neither was it to dismiss Minkin. I’m familiar with Minkin’s work and agree with a lot of what he says – but there was nothing in the article or the post that provided evidence for me to change my mind on that particular topic. I don’t dispute that Blair followed a managerialist approach, or that when in control took decisive action to consolidate power (all leaders have to do it – I do not see anything nefarious or unusual in Corbyn getting his supporters adopted as candidates). Also managerialist does not necessarily equal Liberal, in the political sense of the and is not evidence that Blair was always a ‘Liberal’from day one – oops better stop there

    (AW I have an earlier post in moderation similar to this one – please can you delete that one. Thanks in advance)

  14. Just spoke to parents. Mum is a staunch Tory. She feels the Con manifesto is arrogant and taking the voters for granted because May knows they won’t vote for a socialist. In the case of my mum that’s true.

  15. ROB Unlike taxes, which pay for future services for the community as a whole, social care payments will be for specific services incurred by individuals, calculable and invoiced to those individuals.
    Some of these care costs should be paid for from taxes, as will be those still outstanding when a recipient is down to £100,000 or has less than that to start with.

  16. new thread – quite old actually by now.

  17. What has surprised me is that Labour since JC was elected has not seen any sign of recovery in Scotland – I thought that would be a benefit of his leadership. With Labour presenting the most left-wing manifesto since 1992 and not making much of an impact on Scottish VI, it does look like the notion that Scotland is more left wing than the rest of the UK is a misconception. The possibility of another indyref obviously seen as more important than having a left wing govt in Westminster.

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