Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

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  1. Alec

    “Actually, the Tory manifesto makes clear that they will seek free trade with the EU and as few barriers to trade as possible.”

    Indeed it does but it also says no quite clearly to the single market and the customs union and is clear on taking back control of our borders and our law. On money I quote “…………the days of Britain making vast annual contributions to the European Union will end. “

    Even I might be happy with compromises provided they exclude all the things which would keep us partially within the EU.

  2. A general public service announcement to people here, since there are a couple of people trying it at the moment.

    If I’ve put you on moderation, it means I can’t trust you to follow the comments policy and moderate your comments yourself. If you then post in a constructive way following the comments policy I’ll eventually decide that you can be trusted after all and let you post freely again. Changing your email address and name and posting a jolly new message claiming you are a **brand new**, unrelated person, is rarely convincing. Especially if your IP address is the same, and you try reposting messages from your old email address.

  3. Alec

    This bit really made me laugh

    “May included, seriously thinks no deal is a valid and viable option.”

    So you are now claiming to read May’s mind. I think you totally wrong and I would suggest that so far I have read her mind better than you have.

    Still we can leave it now as we will know within less than two yeras.

  4. It’s that lot, Anthony. They done it.

  5. SYZYGY

    Excellent response :)

  6. My favourite posters are those who political affiliation isn’t always obvious, and that’s actually quite a few here.

    Although I must admit I did quite like the coloured political party theme we had briefly a few years ago ;-)

  7. @Syzygy

    “The plans are rather more than rumours. The funding is in place for Blair’s SDP2 … and according to Peter Oborne, George Osborne has been sounding out potential recruits in the Tories, LP and LDs. Osborne has even managed to secure a helpful newspaper for the project. Mandelson has wanted a centre ‘left’ party of permanent majority since before the 2010 GE (when he was so badly betrayed by the LDs.’

    ———

    Ah, of course, good spot, I hadn’t seen the Osborne link and why he’d want the newspaper.

    According to the article Blair favours trying to take over Lab, well that’s the cuckoo thing to do. Still, taking over LDs would also be cuckoo, albeit a better fit.

    Regarding the Invasion of the Bodysnatchers, yes one can imagine what you mean. It can be hard to get your head around how some of these people think, but once you do, omfg etc.!!

  8. @Carfrew

    You don’t actually respond to any of the points I make and provide no evidence to counter – just dismiss as strawmen and ignore any facts that in any way contradict your theory. You are being very dogmatic .

    Can you provide any evidence that in then 1980’s Brown, Blair, Campbell and Mandelson etc were Liberals? Do you agree or disagree that the key decision was the removal of clause 4 (I voted against btw). I can’t recall the party being flooded by infiltrators in the period before that decision was made. Of the 4 I mention the only one which could fit your theory is Blair – but as I said Christian Socialism is just as much a part of his belief system as supporting economic liberalism. Also I think the drive for power after being out of office since 1979 was more key driver rather than the ideology itself.

    You are aware that Hillary Benn actually voted for Ed Miliband as first choice – not the ‘Blarite’ Miliband?

    I would be interested if any Liberals who post on this site view Blair, Mandelson, Brown and Campbell as fellow travellers.

  9. Sorry to harp on about it, but I think the care proposals from the Conservatives are a real blunder. If it were a budget proposal it’d be gone within a week.

    The problem is the perception is that now if you get home help, they’ll take away your home. That might not be accurate, but it’s what people will think. And they will vote whichever way takes away that danger to their home.

    It’s a very silly policy to put in a manifesto. I wonder if it’s possible to rescind it in some way before the election. Otherwise I think it may well affect several marginal seats.

  10. Carfrew

    http://cdn1.globalissues.org/i/political-compass/uk-parties-over-time.png

    I assume you are aware of political compass but I think this historical chart is interesting. I don’t know the exact methodology used to generate the party positions and it this isn’t on the main site now but I think it potentially explains a lot. The two axis approach has so much more to offer modern political analysis than the old left-right single axis.

    They have a 2017 one up now too
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2017

    No doubt we can argue about exact positioning and labels but clearly Labour have returned much more to their old Labour libertarian socialist position from the essentially 1970s ‘one nation’ Tory mildly authoritarian liberal position of New Labour. Also see how non centrist the modern Tory party is. What do we call that?

    Most modern ‘western’ governments are similarly in the authoritarian and econ liberal secror, though often more central that the UK parties, so Corbyn’s Labour are now relatively far left but not historically far left, hence the confusing use of the moderate and centrist terms.

    My Corbynista chums are all in the libertarian socialist corner but spread widely across it with interestingly none that close to the old Stalinist authoritarian state socialist corner. The Tories I know that have done the test are usually quite centrist and not as far in the top corner as the party. However they are all under 50, so quite possibly not as reactionary as their older comrades.

  11. Having lived through SDP1, I must admit I’ve been rather dismissive of the idea of SDP2 until now. But it seems the LibDems may be in terminal decline and the brand is perhaps fatally tarnished, so maybe a new party might stand a chance this time round. But Blair is also pretty much fatally tarnished too, so having him involved is not going to help I think.

  12. @Redrich

    You’re escalating in error.

    I went through each in turn. On the father/son thing (nope, look at Hilary Benn), on Blair being opportunistic (I explained you had it the wrong way round, he fitted in at first then imposed his will as leader), on the carpet bagging agreed but pointed out it was a straw man, on shifts between blairites and brownies etc. I said there’s not much between them, and accepted Lab not a great fit with LDs.

    I shall now go through your new attempts in turn.

    Requiring evidence of them being liberals in the Eighties is a straw man, they had to toe the line to get power. You want to ignore what they did in power, lol. Equally much of the infiltrating and parachuting occurred once in power so it makes no sense to look for it earlier.

    Dunno why you think Benn backing Miliband is that big a deal, once again, he wasn’t that different from Blair. That’s why the PLP didn’t resign en masse under Miliband.

    Obviously some liberals on here may not wish to be seen as having similarities to new Labour, but doesn’t mean there aren’t quite a few…

  13. PETER CAIRNS

    @”Well the IFS doesn’t always get it right, no one does.
    but regardless of the rather self regarding comments on here they probably have a far better more detailed understanding of the Uk economy than everyone who posts here put together.”

    Here here.

    And just because they don’t promulgate Richard Murphyish stuff about Governments not being constrained by notions of Debt Repayment [snip… I think I’ll step in there before it provokes a response and I have to moderate another long economic back-and-forth. Really not the place – AW]

  14. ALBERTO and TRUE GUY.
    Good Afternoon from a very sunny Southbourne Ward in Bournemouth, Dorset where Tobias Ellwood is a PPC and could win here, IMO.
    I think a new centre party might well emerge via the remaining PLP if JCorbyn carries on.

    ALBERTO: nice compass link, thank you. Harold Wilson said: it will give them (PLP members) something to do, when the 1964-70 liberal reforms were introduced.

  15. @Redrich

    Read Syzygy’s link about how even Blair said it was just a few of them at first at the top and how they then gradually consolidated, parachuted more in…

  16. Rudyard

    This might be your moment.

    IF the weekend polls show further upward movement for Labour then I guess that will be at the expense of the Tories. Now really is the time to close the big gap ( which I still think very unlikely, as the polls have been more stubborn than my wife) post TM manifesto launch.

  17. @Alberto

    Yes, the political compass thing crops up from time to time but not sure of how they reach their conclusions… The idea Labour in the seventies were more small-state Libertarian than most is just very weird. There are small state socialists, but Labour in the Seventies? Er, nope.

  18. Hi Anthony

    I think part of the problem with the “off topic posts” is that there seem to be relatively few polls to discuss. I think I remember in the last GE there seemed to be one every 20 minutes or so. I have got to the (rather sad) point of refreshing “Britain elects” every half an hour to see if there is anything new.

    Do you have a feel for the number and frequency of polls over the next 20 days?

  19. TORY MANIFESTO

    It is well worth a read. Certainly Herr Junckers will have choked on his Stuka Cereal this morning and have been on the hot line To Frau Merkel.

    No deal better than a bad deal;

    Leave single market

    leave customs union

    End of free movement

    New fund for distribution out of former EU contributions

    Exit London Convention on Fishing rights

    Exit Fishing Union

    Lookss…..well…..like brexit

  20. “I think part of the problem with the “off topic posts” is that there seem to be relatively few polls to discuss. I think I remember in the last GE there seemed to be one every 20 minutes or so.”

    ————-

    Well with such a big lead for the leaders, there might be less polls as polls might be considered less influential this time around…

  21. @ CMJ – thanks for the update from Stephen Fisher, nice to see all the different predictions in one place.

    Did you notice any significant regional split in the recent LD->LAB move in the polls?

    I know the cross breaks represent v.small numbers for LD but I know you are the regional tracker guru so thought I’d ask.

    Appreciate any observations you have.

  22. @Trevor

    I’ll check when the kids have gone to bed.

  23. @Candy
    You mean the other way round.
    You can’t pray in aid the local elections.

  24. Interesting how Fisher incorporates betting, but also things like the Red Box sweepstakes…

  25. We have moved incredibly quickly from the possible break-up of Lab and a resurgent LibDems to Corbyn having an excellent campaign and the LDs in the wilderness.

    Meanwhile, the Tories are having a complete mare.

    It really is the oddest campaign.

  26. “I think part of the problem with the “off topic posts” is that there seem to be relatively few polls to discuss. I think I remember in the last GE there seemed to be one every 20 minutes or so.”

    I think it’s perhaps because the polls were judged to have performed less successfully than hoped last time round, so perhaps fewer are being commissioned. Isn’t this the reason why YouGov isn’t doing daily polls now – which must be a big part of the difference in numbers of polls being done?

  27. @Millie,

    I think it’s been very predictable.

  28. Millie

    My thoughts exactly. I keep thinking Lyton Crosby must have something up his sleeve, or some kind of brilliant plan, but there are no signs of it yet. The Tories look like AC Milan in the 2005 Champions League Cup final, 3-0 up at half time and seemingly able to score at will, then an hour and half later watching Liverpool collect the trophy, not knowing quite how it happened. This election could still be Corbyn’s Istanbul…

  29. “We have moved incredibly quickly from the possible break-up of Lab and a resurgent LibDems to Corbyn having an excellent campaign and the LDs in the wilderness.

    Meanwhile, the Tories are having a complete mare.
    It really is the oddest campaign.”

    ———-

    LDs made the kind of betrayal that it may take a generation to overcome. Theresa isn’t known for her campaigning while jezza gets plenty practice campaigning annually for the leadership. Theresa didn’t really have to campaign much for hers. They just told Cameron to get lost, others stood aside and that’s that.

  30. @MIKE

    It’s like they one the first leg 3:0 and are 5:0 up at half time. No point taking any risks at all, control the ball, all you need is a defence that is…strong and stable? no?

    If you really fancy rubbing it in and scoring another couple leave it till the last 5 minutes ( last week )

  31. Mike

    “I keep thinking Crosby must have something up his sleeve or some kind of brilliant plan”

    Perhaps – but maybe this is it. Run the most boring campaign possible – just let their opponents do the running and hold their position in the mid to upper forties (landslide territory).

    “The person who knows when to fight and when not to fight will be victorious”
    The Art of War (Sun Tzu, not me)

  32. YouGov have looked at the nationalisation thing in some detail (looking at support for or against in 13 industries):

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uufxmyd8qm/InternalResults_170518_nationalisation_privatisation_W.pdf

    Only 58% think the Beeb should be public sector (compared to 65% thinking Royal Mail should be in the public sector).

    When you look at it by voting intention, the Lab policies are playing to their base (Tory voters don’t agree with them on the railways for example).

  33. @Carfrew

    I think though you put it rather jokingly there a great deal of truth in what you say.

    This is a very strange election campaign , with no party behaving the way I expected them to a few months ago.

    Who would have predicted Corbyn polling better than Milliband achieved, LibDems going for legalising cannabis, Mays manifesto bombshells, the SNP outflanked over Indyref2?

  34. @Mike:

    Football is a funny old game. Two years later Liverpool had the best of the game, but lost.

    I am more reminded of the referendum campaign. After a week of bad news for Leave and Obama telling by us to the back of the queue, I thought the jig was up. Polls did not change. Like Bigotgate again.

    In politics, genuine goals are harder to score, and are usually like Tudor football – you win by long attrition.

  35. @JonBoy

    Do you really believe that Labour turnout in the coming general election will be higher than Con turnout?

  36. @sorbus

    “Will they, on the same principle, be introducing a petrol allowance for people in rural areas?”

    They (or rather the the Tory/Lid Dem coalition) already did:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rural-fuel-price-cut-begins

    But it applies across the UK.

  37. “The problem is the perception is that now if you get home help, they’ll take away your home”

    ———

    That’s why it’s called home help. They’ll help take care of your home after you’re gone…

  38. I don’t think there is any question that Crosby and the Tories have several plans and cards up sleeves, all of them aces.

    I am convinced that there is damning evidence of Corbyn doing or saying things he shouldn’t have, all they are waiting for is the right time to release them.

    Same for John McDonnell.

  39. @MIKE The Tories look like AC Milan in the 2005 Champions League Cup final, 3-0 up at half time and seemingly able to score at will, then an hour and half later watching Liverpool collect the trophy, not knowing quite how it happened. This election could still be Corbyn’s Istanbul

    Liverpool had an inspirational leader. Labour have Corbyn.

  40. “Who would have predicted … LibDems going for legalising cannabis”

    Can’t say that one surprised me. Their party members have been in favour for a good long while, and with a number of other countries doing it and public opinion in the UK shifting as well, it was only a matter of time.

  41. Andy Williams

    I think that is a great point, Stevie G was instrumental.

  42. @BARDIN1

    “Who would have predicted Corbyn polling better than Milliband achieved, LibDems going for legalising cannabis, Mays manifesto bombshells, the SNP outflanked over indyref2.”

    ———-

    Well I didn’t predict any of it, but did think some of it might be possible. Obviously I didn’t predict Farron’s missteps, or SNP being outflanked, but I am not that surprised at Theresa’s manifesto. As for Jezza, suspected individual policies might be well-perceived, but wasn’t at all sure they would cut through all the other noise.

    And yes, was only half joking about Jezza and Theresa’s campaigning…

  43. @woody

    Yep I think so. Two weeks to go there will be a trickles to pave the way then the last weekend before polling something big and new. I can think of a few likely scenarios but I’m not daft enough to post them.

    I’m just not sure how Crosby is going to play the postal votes. It’s like there are 2 elections.

  44. NRMM

    I have no idea if it is true but I perceive that postal votes favour Labour by a large margin so probably can be discounted.

  45. @ CMJ – thanks, about to head out for the night so I won;t be able to thank you later!

    A few weeks back I think a lot of us thought LDEM were going to score mid-teens on back of gaining Remain votes. I’d modelled this up as them “doing more harm than good” in that they could steal a lot of Rem-LAB votes and hence lower the threshold for CON in many seats (UNS models did not account for that). These scenarios gave my skewed probabilities that took CON to 450+ in some cases although I thought that was a little OTT and settled for something closer to 430. Obviously those scenarios now seem very unlikely.

    However, I’m now looking at almost the opposite where LDEM voters are being tactical and hoping to reduce the CON majority by “loaning” LAB their vote (it is the tactical thing to do in 90%+ of seats)

    If Green and LDEM voters tactically switch to LAB then they can “save” lots of seats in the Midlands/North/Wales (up to 40 in an extreme tactical vote scenario).

    I’m not sure how Electoral Calculus does the tactical voting adjustment – doesn’t seem to give anything like the differences I see.

    Not changing my prediction but just highlighting a “shock” scenario that might return CON with only a dozen or so more seats than they have now. LDEM voters are probably the most likely to be aware of tactical voting opportunity and hence the polls (and especially regional breakdowns) should pick this up. What we’re seeing as a drop in LDEM VI (to LAB) might be due to tactical voting intentions rather than a “genuine” move?!?

  46. Hmmmmm

    I wonder if there are less waverers in postal voting? All you geeks out there ..is there anything to back this up?

    If you’re trying to reduce labour turnout by negative campaigning I would think it has far less effect on the postal votes. So wait till the last weekend.

  47. I have a dream,Andy T.

    Onwards to the promised land..

  48. @Trevor

    I see what you are saying. I would think though, that tactical voting would be stronger the closer to the polls (when the leaflets pile up saying “ONLY THE LB DEM or ONLY LABOUR can win here). I would think at this stage a lot of voters wont realise it if they are in marginals where a switch would have an effect.

    I think there may be some switchback in seats where prominent LibDems were ousted last time – like Twickenham and Kingston

  49. The conservatives now have a different policy for winter fuel allowance in Scotland and England .They are as pragmatic as ever for power.However is there any polls that resentment is starting to grow in how citizens are treated differently in both countries .

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