Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

1 5 6 7 8 9
  1. @ Jim Jam

    What an appalling, prejudiced statement!

    :)

  2. @Allan C “Certainly didn’t take Tancred with me, he’s probably not showing his face due to the disastorouse state of the Lib/Dems. ;-)”

    He was very enthused with Miller and her campaign’s donations. I suggested he become her Treasurer and that’s the last we have heard from him!

    I’m sure he’ll be back on election night to dispense his unique brand of wisdom!

  3. @SEACHANGE

    I agree 35% seems high but that’s what the polls say , or is there a big error in sampling or the number crunching from all of them?

  4. Given how much the smaller parties seem to be tanking, what % roughly do people think Con have to beat Lab by in order to end up in a no worse off position in terms of majority? I know Con used to have to win by a couple % or something like that in order to get a majority

    Appreciate TM is aiming for a much bigger majority but if she just ends up with another 2 years its still not the end of the world

  5. @ N R Mondeo Man

    It’s not what the polls say. At least not at present. I can’t remember seeing a poll with Labour on 35. Average is about 31 or 32, I think. And that after a good week of news and with TM’s powder still dry on JC, his hinterland and his past pronouncements and positions.

  6. I’ve gone on to electoral calculus factored in the latest msn poll of poll figures plus the latest scots poll the result a tory majority of 120.

  7. I just had a general comment and not sure if it’s been covered regarding parties that are not standing in all constituencies and polling results. For example as UKIP are only standing in roughly 3/5ths of constituencies does therenational polling exaggerate the result they will get. Are people who say they will vote UKIP but then find they cannot on polling day removed from the data. Are the polls a wish to vote for someone rather than an ability?

  8. So here goes:

    Con 407
    Lab 160
    LDP 11
    SNP 49
    Speaker 1
    NI 18
    PC 3
    Green 1

    ish

  9. “According to the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman, Labour HQ is working on the assumption that the party will be left with just 140 seats after the election. Here’s an extract from her blog.

    I understand from two very good sources that this working assumption developed by Patrick Heneghan, the party’s elections director, is based on the party’s private data. This could mean that 89 sitting Labour MPs lose their seats – and means the party considers previously safe constituencies to be at risk.

    That must be one of the gloomiest forecasts around. But other predictions have not been a lot more encouraging for Labour. The electionsetc blog, run by the academic Steve Fisher, has been compiling a list of all the various election predictions that are in the public domain underpinned by some sort of methodology – models based on polling (either simple seat projections, or more complex ones, taking into account other factors), results implied by the betting markets, and wisdom-of-the-crowd mass forecasts. It published a summary of the latest data last week.

    Of course, they could all be wrong. And these figures do not take into account poll over the last week, which have shown some movement towards Labour.”

  10. What I think a lot of contributors here are missing is that Mrs May doesn’t like campaigning , whereas Mr Corbyn is a natural. Jeremy has been protesting all his life and seems to have an affinity with people. Mrs May, on the other hand, whilst a formidable organiser and politician, is not a natural speaker and doesn’t seem to show great empathy.

    The Labour strategy of “Let Jeremy be Jeremy” is based around his personal popularity on the doorstep and, I think, seems to be working.

    That said, Mrs May is seen as a strong leader so, all to play for.

  11. It’s the ultimate nightmare for moderate Labour: a thumping in seats, but a high enough vote share to keep Corbyn around long enough to change the party fundamentally.

  12. Oh by the way in the betting market the tory drift is continuing there up to 1/20 with labour down to a miserly 10/1 .

  13. @Rudyard

    God bless you and your optimism.

    Do you therefore consider it an error for JC not to attend last night’s debate?

  14. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/19/german-business-leaders-conservatives-tories-rethink-plan-leave-single-market-trade-eu

    No more proof needed that German industrialists won’t be pushing hard for a lenient trade deal for the UK. The integrity of the single market is much more important to them, even if a poor trade deal with the UK will cause them some pain.

    Not quite what we were told last year.

  15. @Redrich

    Your objections seem unchecked by any comparison with reality!! It’s kinda quant…

    Rather than it being Blair et al being opportunist and dragged towards the liberal, it’s more the case they opportunistically wore the clothes of Foot et al to rise up the party then reverted to the liberal once in power. Because that’s what happened. Also because they pressed for more of it beyond any clamouring from party or voters. How many were clamouring for some of those privatisations? And God knows who clamoured for ATOS…

    Really can’t see how you can assume the son would inevitably follow his ancestors so closely politically, look at Hilary Benn.

    Minor shifts in liberal,position between Blairites and Brownies and Milibandites don’t demonstrate an absence of liberalism. The proper shift to Corbynism shows those other shifts up for what they are.

    Accept in any party some MPs may be carpet-bagging opportunists who blow with the prevailing wind but it’s another straw man: their existence doesn’t mean that the liberals weren’t driving things

    Accept Labour may not have been as good a fit with LDs as LDs were quite a bit more liberal. Doesn’t mean Labour weren’t liberal though.

    So, lots of interesting straw men, and you may find more but none will work because it was pretty obviously the pursuit of a range of liberal policies that they avidly kept pursuing beyond any pressure. Who forced them to ditch transitional arrangements on free movement? To set up Academies? And much, much more…

  16. People mock Foot as unelectable, but in actual fact after his election as leader Labour soared above 50% in opinion polls for a time.

    He maintained a significant lead over the Tories, but then the SDP breakaway split the left-wing vote, and this was compounded by nationalistic frenzy caused by the Falklands war. It’s all there in the polls of 1983, you can see how it played out.

    The British people are consistently to the left economically and right socially. Both bringing back hanging, and increasing the top rate of tax to 60% are policies supported by a majority of voters.

  17. It is a curious political world

    In the last year or so:
    The Labour Moderates have been particularly immoderate!
    The Labour hard left have a particularly soft underbelly!
    The UKIP Populists are particularly unpopular!
    The Liberal Leader is accused of illiberalism!
    The Conservative leader wishes to change everything!

    The only thing strong and stable is the prediction that politics is unpredictable!

  18. @ Neil Wilson

    ‘Who is going to give their opinion on the credibility of the IFS – since it is a neoliberal infested swamp that doesn’t even know how the monetary system works at a macro level.’

    I thought I’d repost in case some missed your voice of reason … wish the BBC would stop treating the IFS as if their ‘opinion’ was the final word (on anything).

  19. @Redrich

    “One of the reasons why I am at odds with Carfew is that my memory of the 1990,s is of a Labour Party shell shocked by the 92 defeat and concluding that it had to ditch clause 4 to win back Basildon man from the Tories. This was a product of a political calculation and not one Liberals joining the party and getting it to change policy. I think the Liberals Carfrew has in mind joined after this decision on Clause 4 had already happened.”

    ———-

    It was calculation on behalf of McDonnell et al. As he puts it, they were so desperate, they accepted the medicine of people like Blair. They accepted the liberalism advocated by others. And then regretted it when they saw just how far they’d take it…

  20. @Redrich

    “Currently there is a shift in views in relation to government intervention in the economy, so in terms of policy I don’t think Labour need to do the type of momentous shift as dropping Clause 4 was. This will make it easier for the two sides to come to a compromise on policy- especially given the apparent appeal of many of Labour’s policies. A leader who has not been tarnished by the recent in fighting and who everyday people can relate to and ideally female would be the best choice.”

    ———

    Despite the momentous shifts in the party, in polling on policies, in failure of liberalism in numerous ways, including the crash, liberals are STILL sticking to their creed as much as they can. Which is more than enough to prove the point all on its own, besides all my other points.

  21. Following their Damascene conversion to free prescriptions last week, the Conservatives announce that universal Winter Fuel Payments ( which are also devolved) will continue in Scotland. Apparently, because it’s colder in Scotland. Nothing to do with their election strategy of attracting SLab voters.

  22. ALEC

    Why bother to post that Alec. The Tories will win the GE in all probability, and the manifesto makes clear we are leaving the EU in the fullest sense and if necessary no deal is better than a bad deal. The Europeans are increasingly worried and are “circling the waggons” as expected. May and Davis accepts the discussions won’t be easy and have said so as plain as you can.

    I don’t see the relevence in a discussion on GE polling.

  23. Hireton

    “Nothing to do with their election strategy of attracting SLab voters.”

    Sounds like it’s got everything to do with it to me.

  24. Isn’t it colder in Scotland though? I thought it was colder. Surely it’s colder. It’s closer to the cold bit. It’s got to be colder…

  25. WB

    Very good :-)

  26. @drmibbles:

    Like you I remember well that the Tories spent much of their first two terms looking like they would lose. Thatcher never looked as entrenced as Blair did in his first two terms.

  27. SYZYGY

    I thought I’d repost in case some missed your voice of reason … wish the BBC would stop treating the IFS as if their ‘opinion’ was the final word (on anything).

    I agree with you because sometimes they get it wrong. However I expect Labour cheers if the IFS critise the Tory manifesto, will you still agree?

  28. ToH

    “I don’t see the relevence in a discussion on GE polling.”

    As one of the legs on which the Conservative manifesto stands is Brexit, there is some relevance (imo).

  29. WB

    “The only thing strong and stable is the prediction that politics is unpredictable!”

    Except possibly which party will win the GE with a greatly increased majority

  30. Scotland colder as it is further North ?. I would tend to disagree, I would add that it may be colder on the east coast of both Engand and Scotland than the west coast. Is there not some island over the west coast which has palm trees growing.
    As my old geog teacher used to say. The west is warmer in winter.

  31. LASZLO

    Really, do you think British voters will repond to hard talk from German businessmen?

    Raising Brexit is i would have thought the last thing Labour wants at the moment.

  32. I wonder if the Tory manifesto will have any effect at all on the pensioners who’ve always voted for them.

    If May had announced that every tenth person over 65 will be taken out and shot on June 9th, the zombie army would still pour into the polling stations on June 8th to vote Tory.

  33. @ Carfew

    Lewis Minkin’s book on the Blair Supremacy describes the managerial coup effected in the Labour Party.

    He even reports a ‘wry comment from Blair describing “New Labour” as “the newest political party on the scene and the smallest. It has about five people.”’ ‘From within New Labour,’ Minkin continues, ‘the takeover of the party by this small minority was quietly and sometimes boastfully acknowledged to be a coup d’etat over the party.’

    Minkin describes it as a ‘rolling coup’ in that ‘it involved a series of unilateral major moves over several years’.’

    http://www.redpepper.org.uk/inside-new-labours-rolling-coup-the-blair-supremacy/

    Personally, I would use the label of ‘transatlanticists’ rather than liberal because it much more clearly describes the commitment to the Washington Consensus and the intention to hollow out and reconfigure the LP into a parallel of the US Democrat Party. However I appreciate that many discussions would fall at the first hurdle if terms were universally and rigorously defined.

  34. @Syzygy

    Yes, the parallels with the Democrats are there. And yes, Redrich must be living in a very different world to the rest of us if he couldn’t see the concerted attempt to take over, parachuting in MPs relentlessly, all that. It wasn’t some kind of haphazard accident.

  35. @Syzygy

    Thanks for the link btw. Looks interesting. I shall check it out along with the YouTube link over the weekend.

  36. with reference to the recent VI improvement for Labour in the polls, I recall reading an article on the BBC a few days ago about Pro Corbyn Facebook groups and that one of the things they were doing was attempting to improve his profile by mass completion of polls.

    Now the examples given in the article of their activities were for small online open polls with no sample control and so fairly irrelevant but it did get me thinking that the natural extension for this kind of co-ordinated activity would be to get as many people as they could signed up for the major pollster panels.

    I was just wondering if AW could illuminate whether Yougov or other pollsters look for or have methods in place to combat any kind of entryism.

    I should clarify that I have no evidence to suggest such an attempt has been made by an of these groups just that the correlation got me musing.

    [Yes. But obviously, we don’t say what they are. Suffice to say, the panel is hundreds of thousands of people, so for entryism to be enough to make any difference, it would need to be of some scale, making any such unusual patterns of recruitment fairly obvious – AW]

  37. @Gordon

    Well the west is warmer, it has the Gulf Stream and stuff. But if Scotland isn’t colder you just turned my world upside down…

  38. @ TOH

    ‘I agree with you because sometimes they get it wrong. However I expect Labour cheers if the IFS critise the Tory manifesto, will you still agree?’

    I always want to agree with you :). I’m sure you are right that I’m much more inclined to feel cheered if the IFS view fits with mine.

    However, I know that I shouldn’t because I agree with Neil Wilson that the IFS does not understand how the monetary system works at the macro level. Nevertheless, as they say a stopped clock is correct twice a day :)

  39. @TOH – “Why bother to post that Alec. The Tories will win the GE in all probability, and the manifesto makes clear we are leaving the EU in the fullest sense and if necessary no deal is better than a bad deal. ”

    Actually, the Tory manifesto makes clear that they will seek free trade with the EU and as few barriers to trade as possible.

    There are plenty of sentences and snippets in the manifesto that can be trotted out in a couple of years time to justify compromises made in order to protect the UK economy, and no one in government, May included, seriously thinks no deal is a valid and viable option.

    This election has been called precisely because she wants a big majority to be able to face down criticisms of compromise, and the longer people persist in imagining there is a chance of leaving without making the compromises needed to secure a reasonable trade deal, the more disappointed they will be.

  40. WB

    “It is a curious political world”

    :). The times they are a changing?

  41. Blue Bob

    @ Allan

    Welcome back
    ____________

    Thanks.. :-)
    ……………
    SEACHANGE
    “He was very enthused with Miller and her campaign’s donations. I suggested he become her Treasurer and that’s the last we have heard from him!”

    “I’m sure he’ll be back on election night to dispense his unique brand of wisdom!”
    _________

    He could well be working for Gina. Both are unique brands of liberalism.

    Mind you, even though I’m half her age she’s not bad for 52. I’m good with numbers, might give her a call. ;-)

  42. Hireton

    I’m struggling with that as a piece of Tory logic. Will they, on the same principle, be introducing a petrol allowance for people in rural areas?

  43. @ Alberto
    altogether now:
    Come mothers and fathers throughout the land
    And don’t criticize what you can’t understand
    Your sons and your daughters, beyond your command

    Your old road is rapidly agin’
    So get out of the new one if you can’t lend your hand
    For the times, they are a-changin’

  44. I could almost vote for a storage allowance. Almost…

  45. Tory proposals to make voters show photo ID in order to vote aren’t attracting much attention on UKPR, despite the likely implications for differential turnout.

    NI already has this requirement. Apparently when they were trialling it in NI they found (surprise, surprise) that poorer people were less likely to have the requisite forms of ID, so they introduced free voter ID cards. No such proposal for the rest of the UK.

  46. @Syzygy

    Couldn’t wait, and just read the article!! Bit chilling innit. Like the bit about the lone parent thing. Amazing the way these cuckoos operate…

  47. Well the IFS doesn’t always get it right, no one does.

    but regardless of the rather self regarding comments on here they probably have a far better more detailed understanding of the Uk economy than everyone who posts here put together.

    I am no fan of lefties that turn p with megaphones to drown others out but they are only marginally worse than right wingers who rubbish experts because they don’t like what the messenger is saying.

    Peter.

  48. @ Carfew

    ‘You may also note the rumours of Blair being invited to take over LDs. Prolly won’t happen, but not a surprise if it did!!’

    The plans are rather more than rumours. The funding is in place for Blair’s SDP2 … and according to Peter Oborne, George Osborne has been sounding out potential recruits in the Tories, LP and LDs. Osborne has even managed to secure a helpful newspaper for the project. Mandelson has wanted a centre ‘left’ party of permanent majority since before the 2010 GE (when he was so badly betrayed by the LDs).

    It is even reported in Labour List (though without reference to LD or Conservative joiners). https://labourlist.org/2017/05/corbyn-must-go-if-labour-loses-say-partys-voters-as-poll-shows-stark-challenge-facing-backers-of-new-party/

  49. @ Carfew

    Yes it was chilling to live through too.. incomprehensible and only gradually did it become clear. (I remember calling in Southern region to get them to oust the cuckoos .. only in true horror story style to realise that they were cuckoos too. It was invasion of the body snatchers!). Btw Alan Simpson stupidly resigned his seat in 2010 because he would have been a fantastic leader of the LP.

  50. I’ve been looking back through the comments and can’t seem to find any comments from BIG FAT RON.

    Has BFR gone to work for Gina as well?

1 5 6 7 8 9