Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

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  1. We have a state pension system which is the envy of no one.Lower as a percentage of average income than any country in Western Europe and 40% lower even than the USA.

    Yes there are rich pensioners in the UK and no they don’t need a winter fuel allowance or other universal benefits but if you are taking it away from them use it for poor pensioners and those not of pensionable age not to subsidise an IHT cut for people leaving an estate of over £1 million

  2. @Alec

    “It’s the vast mass of people in homes of £300K who might see most of their assets wiped out.”

    —————–

    This will be interesting electorally, because effects of QE leached out of the SE into dormitory towns and Cities assisting Tory VI in better-connected parts of the Midlands etc.

    But not necessarily as much of a windfall the further out from Londom peeps are. So there might be quite a few in the Midlands with windfall gains of a few hundred thousand as opposed to a million.

    Wonder what Pete B thinks of it all, living in Brum?

  3. @ Mike

    “Again, anecdotal, and again going against the “manifesto changes nothing rule”, but the huge number of angry comments below an article about the “Dementia Tax” in the Spectator on line edition backs up what you’re saying.”

    I wish people would stop falling into these traps, do you really think there are pensioners and the like going online and commenting on the Spectator website.

    It’s like when the audience boo the Tories on QT, it is not representative of the general public, it’s just Labour party activists.

  4. @TOH

    Disagree withyour sentence. What the opponents of social care changes seem to want is that the state should take of people past the grave.

  5. Scottish Independence Referendum, YouGov poll:

    Yes: 45% (+2)
    No: 55% (-2)

  6. @ TOH

    “The State should not be expected to look after us from “cradle to grave””

    What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander where is your IMO

  7. Blue Bob

    “I wish people would stop falling into these traps, do you really think there are pensioners and the like going online and commenting on the Spectator website.”

    Looking at the usual comments on sites like the spectator and more so the DM, I would say most commentators are politically right wing. There are certainly vocal left wing trolls, just as there are Kippers and Tories aplenty on the Guardian’s BTL but I do think the majority of online commenters are in most cases in line with the publication’s wider readership.

  8. how do 50+ voters completely overturn the poll on independence? do the numbers add up?

  9. JonBoy – “The combined opposition need to gain only 20 seats to outnumber the Tories and NI unionists. That could put Corbyn into No. 10 as head of a coalition. With tactical voting I don’t think that’s impossible.”

    The amazing thing about the above statement is that the council elections were only 2 weeks ago, but people seem to have wiped the results from their memory…

  10. @BlueBob,

    Agree on your comment regarding preaching to the converted. Loads of that online.

    Watched QT last night, typical left loaded noisy audience, but don’t let that fool you, it wont be representative of 8th June am pretty certain.

  11. ALEC

    @”It’s the vast mass of people in homes of £300K who might see most of their assets wiped out.”

    Depends on their retirement income.

    Does anyone know-if your pension goes someway towards a private plan of your choice-can you ask for LA top up, funded by your estate-or do you have to choose between a private plan you can fund out of income-or a LA plan funded from your estate?

  12. @Candy: Oh dear, have you wiped from your memory the turnout?

  13. @Albert

    Over 50s (and especially over 65s (and especially, especially over 75s)) are heavily against indy.

    The question is, do indy supporters change as they age? If not, indy is coming in 2-10 years.

  14. QUOTE (Blue Bob) “You can always tell what sort of audience is present by the amount of people with pink/red/green colour hair.”

    What an appalling, prejudiced statement! I really don’t expect to read such sweeping generalisations on a thoughtful site such as this one.

    It may have been true to an extent in the late 1970’s when the bulk of people with dyed hair were punk rockers, where the bands and stars of that genre loudly espoused a left wing or anarchist viewpoint, but, in this day and age, dyed hair is fairly mainstream and is nothing more than a fashion choice.

    Dyed hair does say one thing – and only one thing – about the person – they are likely to be relatively young.

  15. Big miscalculation by Corbyn not attending the debate. If he’d been there the to audience would have been larger and he would have had a chance to present himself unfiltered. It could have given him momentum going into the final weeks – which he needs. I can’t understand his logic – public have low expectations of him this was his chance to confound the expectations. Again Corbyn is a lovely guy but no political nous.

  16. Mark

    “Dyed hair does say one thing – and only one thing – about the person – they are likely to be relatively young.”

    My wife is 76 but looks 20 years younger, do you really mean that? If so you have a lot to learn.

    :-)

  17. WB

    Fair comment, I give you my IMO.

  18. @JonBoy

    Are you suggesting Lab people turn out more than Cons? :-)

  19. @statgeek
    i didn’t know the indy question was so different among ages, if this poll is correct

  20. Couper2802
    I agree re Corbyn not attending the debate.

    Voters are sceptical about him, so he should take every chance he gets to try to convince them he’s capable of leading the country. How hard can it be to look more like PM material than Nuttall, or even Farron? (Sturgeon’s a different matter – and that would have been an interesting clash)

    I guess we wait and see how audiences for whatever formats Corbyn and May are doing compare with the audience for last night’s debate.

  21. Couper2082

    “Big miscalculation by Corbyn not attending the debate.”

    I disagree. If he’d have been there without TM he’d have been the target. That’s why TM didn’t want to be there. Now all the others look irrelevant non entities.

  22. @Colin

    The way it works at the moment is that care home residents are either self funded or LA funded. To qualiy for LA funding assets must be below the threshold. There is alao a limit on what the LA will pay so, in most care homes, self funded residents effectively subsidise the others.

    I haven’ t seen anythibng speling out the detail of how the new system will work. For example, will the LA continue to fund someone in an expensive care home once they can no longer pay for themselves.

  23. QUOTE (The Other Howard) “My wife is 76 but looks 20 years younger, do you really mean that? If so you have a lot to learn.”

    All I was pointing out is that many (if not all) people that follow a fashion – any fashion, tend to so so in their teens or 20’s – and that includes dyed hair. While some carry on doing so for the rest of their lives, many others do not.

    That’s not dyed hair, but most, if not all fashion styles and genres.

    I was simply pointing out to Blue Bob that something like dyed hair is not something you can judge a personality – or political affiliation on – it’s akin to saying that people that wear v-neck sweaters are rabid right tories, or that women that wear flowery skirts are loony lefties.

    Both statements would, of course, be ridiculous, just as, IMO the original statement on dyed hair was.

  24. Reading the comments it would seem that quite a few seem to think the Con social care proposals are a game change… well it would seem that way in trying to convince us how bad they may be and hence its impact.

    What seems missing to me is no comment on the current system and its relative impact on those of us in the age bracket that it would have the maximum impact. In other words how it compares and contrasts.

    If the current system was being proposed what attack verbiage against them would be used by those trying to gain political advantage.

    I am not aware that Labour are changing the current system to one that provides free care no matter what.

    Of course its about perceptions hence the eagerness to get the slogans that make perceptions stick.

  25. @TOH,

    Yes thanks, lol. It’s that classic tactic of abuse rather than engage with debate…

  26. JONN

    Very fair comment IMO and it was why I posted my own experience of my father and father in law.

  27. THE MONK

    Thanks.

    Detail needed as you say.

    The Labour spokesman was on DP this morning-they are sticking to a Cap on lifetime costs-but will call a cross party Conference to decide !

  28. TOH
    I did know what the current situation is. Far more people use domicili*ry care services than ever use residential care services (sorry, can’t find the figures and I’m supposed to be working – general elections aren’t good for my productivity!). In any case, as far as VI is concerned what matters is how the impact of the proposals is perceived and that is what I was speculating about, picking up on Tony’s report of an overheard comment.

    I’ve tried adhere strictly to AW’s comment policy and avoid wading into the debate about policy. I note that there’s a divide between those – like you – who don’t think the state should have to take responsibility for care, and those – like Alec – who point out the merits of pooling risk via the state. I haven’t seen any data on which point of view has most support amongst the general population.

    I’d point out that most people trust the NHS to provide good medical care and I believe many would welcome a similar ‘national care service’. In my experience when people aren’t worrying about being able to afford care for their parents, they’re worrying about whether it really qualifies as ‘care’ and would declare a willingness to pay more to ensure that care is provided by people with suitable skills and temperament, and time.

    There seems to be general recognition on this board that the cost of social care is a nettle that needs grasping and hopefully the general voting population isn’t too far behind. That leaves the debates about whether risks of frailness in later life should be borne by the individual, or collectively and what regulatory regime and combination of state and free market provision represents the best way of providing high quality, good value care.

  29. Good afternoon all from a rather damp Winchester…

    s thomas

    Missing posters

    “Also AC who finally came out of transition and declared himself for Corbyn. I suspect that this act of self revelation so ashamed him when he woke up in the morning that he has gone off to another site where he can avail himself of the rehabilitation of offenders Act”
    _____________

    Now don’t get ahead of yourself. I’ve been missing for a few weeks due to being on secondment to Melbourne Australia and the small matter of moving house and my other half moving in with me..Quite traumatic times ;-)

    Back to your comment..If you cast your brain cell back to what I actually said then it wasn’t so much that I was supporting ol Corby but more to do with the fact TM wasn’t going to take my vote for granted by calling for an opportunistic snap election.,

    And the samll matter that Brexit seems like being a right old dogs breakfast.

  30. @Carfrew

    Personally I prefer feud to polite disagreement but each to their own ;-).
    I think you have to make a distinction between those who adopt policies out of political expediency and those who are true believers so to speak. For both the Tories in the post-war period and Labour since 1992 I would argue it was far more the case of the former than the latter, and if Liberal infiltrators had any influence it was because key figures within the party sought power over ideological purity.

    Where I really struggle with your theory is in applying it to 4 of the key players in New Labour, – Blair, Brown, Campbell and Mandelson. Now it’s actually hard to claim Blair was an infiltrator and one should not discount the influence of Christian Socialism on him. He stuck with Labour in 83. Personally I think Blair was more driven by power than ideology, and that his beliefs are rather unique blend of social democracy, Christianity and economic liberalism. In Mandelson’s case he came from the left originally, and I don’t buy that Herbert Morrison’so grandson joined the Labour party at a young age in order to bring in liberalism by the back door. Again I think he was more driven by obtaining power and ideology came second. People often over look how close he was to Kinnock.
    I won’t repeat what I have already said about Brown. Campbell’s own political views are far from Liberal, and he pushed for populist measures aimed at wc and lower middle class voters.

    Also most of the Blarites defected to Brown after Blair went, and many supported David over Ed Miliband on the basis of electoral appeal rather than ideology.

    I don’t doubt there were Labour MP’s 9(or Tory ones) during this period who would have quite nicely fitted into a Liberal Party – however I tend to see them more as Carpet baggers rather than a band of infiltrators trying push the party towards liberalism.

    Back to Blair. Obviously in his case you can see strong similarity in political views with someone such as Jenkins. But I remember Campbell making a comment after the 2010 election that he ways thought it was a fallacy that you could just at the Liberal and Labour vote together – which in retrospect I now see as a comment on potential differences of opinion with Blair. There is a reason why Labour and the LDs didn’t merge in the Blair years – they are in essence different, and ultimately whilst Blair shared views with the Liberals I don’t he is one.

  31. @redrich/carfrew,

    I have read Blairs autobiography and I actually agreed with a lot of what he said. He is 100% on the money saying you can’t win from the hard left and that left wing militancy loses you the centre and middle England. It’s a real shame for him personally, and of course far more so all those affected, that Iraq overrides everything. Without that I think he would be remembered quite well, and I say this as a Conservative voter.

    It’s hard to know how Lab will bridge the new Labour/centrist element with the left wing momentum element??? Any thoughts?

  32. On predictions…

    I’m going to wait for a few days before I predict the UK election so that the Tory manifesto will have time to sink into peeps coupons.

    However for Scotland, based on the latest poll and other stuff my prediction is…

    SNP 44% (50 seats) – 6
    Tories 26% (4 seats) +3
    Labour 22% (2 seats) +1
    Lib/Dem 6% (3 seats) +2

  33. Sorbus

    “There seems to be general recognition on this board that the cost of social care is a nettle that needs grasping and hopefully the general voting population isn’t too far behind. That leaves the debates about whether risks of frailness in later life should be borne by the individual, or collectively and what regulatory regime and combination of state and free market provision represents the best way of providing high quality, good value care.”

    I can agree with that.

  34. Ok I know that this is not a proper poll but the link below is from a football blog which has a very active politics section. It was very lively over the brexit vote and members voting intentions turned out to be very much in line with the outcome in Sunderland.

    They have asked members to show their voting preferences in the first week in of the campaign and again this week. If you link back at the first pool (link provided in the first post)you can see a makered shift from a tight race to Labour returning to the sort of lead you would expect in this part of the world.

    It also confirms the decline of UKIP in an area which was seen as a possible base for the party to build on.

    It is interesting to look at how people who are not part of the world UK Polling Report contributors are debating the election as well.

    https://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/which-party-do-you-intent-to-vote-for-on-june-8th-part-2.1363229/

  35. One of the problems with social care that the research of it started to up only a few years ago, and we still have very little evidence (the one civil service has is largely based on highly structured surveys, and more or less exclude social enterprise that provides 40% in some parts of the country). Also, there is barely any research on a comparative basis.

    I know that academic research could be quite esoteric, but in this case positively useful.

  36. StatGeek – “Over 50s (and especially over 65s (and especially, especially over 75s)) are heavily against indy. The question is, do indy supporters change as they age? If not, indy is coming in 2-10 years.”

    You are assuming that all age cohorts are of an equal size, but that is not the case.

    Here is Scotland’s population pyramid from the 2011 census:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e9/Population_pyramid_for_Scotland_using_2011_census_data.png/720px-Population_pyramid_for_Scotland_using_2011_census_data.png

    Notice how small the 11-15 lot were in 2011. These are the people coming up to vote.

    They can’t outvote the older generations.

    There is a second element: the portion of over 50s who favour indy have a lower life expectancy than the No voters (because they are poorer). So the people who pass away will disproportionaly be Yes voters, and all the new 18 year olds will be doing is replacing them so the overall effect is no change.

  37. AC

    Good to see you back and hope you had a good time.You didnt go with tancred did you?

  38. Rich

    “It’s hard to know how Lab will bridge the new Labour/centrist element with the left wing momentum element??? Any thoughts?”

    A centrist would do the trick. Social democrats are very good in making very socialist speeches and then doing something (not quite) the opposite. Well, they have to…

  39. Rudyard

    I admire your optimism. I am rather an optimist myself, though please do not think me rude if I think my optimism has rather more statistical foundation than yours.

    I completely agree with your sentiments regarding voters that disagree with you. I am lucky in that I canvass in quite a civil part of the country and my discussions with SNP voters tend to be relatively amicable agreements to disagree. (I believe I have changed the mind of two so far.) I have canvassed in some areas of Glasgow and Dundee in the referendum campaign, however, where my approach was met frequently by swearing and abuse that I personally do not feel helps the tone of political debate.

  40. Sorry but at the moment I can’t see past the social care and pensions comments and whether a negative or positive to voting intentions of target voting group.

    Maybe I’m naive but I always thought manifesto proposals would be trialed/tested to some degree. Thus a degree of confidence that it doesn’t alienate target group. Plus it can be can be strongly defended in relation to target group in debate and discussion against existing policies.

    Would conservatives put a proposal in manifesto based on trialing that was a strong target vote turn-off, or is it a gamble or risk they are prepared to take because it fits into a narrative they wish to push.

    For me it is a proposal I could defend in debate against existing situation. Of course that doesn’t mean other perceptions win out.

  41. Candy

    A lot of the older demographic who voted No to independence did so on the back of uncertainty over pensions post-indy.

    Standard Life’s intervention and Alister Darlings “don’t take the risk speech if you’re still undecided” swung it in favour of No.

    The pensions argument will be key to any future indy vote in Scotland.

  42. To me all the social case and pensions stuff will end up being noise – 95% of voters, probably more, will be hearing something about it during the 2 minutes of news which they pick up each day and not really knowing or having the time to think about who they think is right or wrong.

    In that respect, it plays into the hands of the Tories given that the more days that pass without any changes in the polls or true voting intentions the better for them. If the Tories could fast forward to June 8th now, its a no-brainer that they would do so

    Overall, it does feel like TM and her terms are holding off going on the attack so that they dont risk being seen as nasty. Only if the polls start to narrow do I think we’ll see their crosshairs more firmly focussed on Corbyn.

  43. s thomas

    AC

    “Good to see you back and hope you had a good time.You didnt go with tancred did you?”
    _______________

    Thanks..
    All work and very little play but overall did enjoy my second trip to Melbourne this year. Certainly didn’t take Tancred with me, he’s probably not showing his face due to the disastorouse state of the Lib/Dems. ;-)

  44. @ Mark

    “What an appalling, prejudiced statement! I really don’t expect to read such sweeping generalisations on a thoughtful site such as this one.”

    Really?, you see that is the problem these days from the left, over the top outrage for any views that do not align with those that are not there own.

    What about the Tory scum posters that were on show yesterday at the manifesto launch, as a Tory am I scum? is my wife scum?, how many Labour scum posters do you see when Labour are campaigning?

  45. @ Allan

    Welcome back.

  46. For the first time in this election I am actually impatient to see polling results this weekend. I wouldnt be surprised by a dramatic narrowing – but that is pure speculation based on my nose for what is going on.

  47. @Rich

    I do think Blair was helped by a general shift to the left on a number of issues during the mid 90,s the Tory,s losing credibility on the economy, his own positive ratings on leadership and competency.

    One of the reasons why I am at odds with Carfew is that my memory of the 1990,s is of a Labour Party shell shocked by the 92 defeat and concluding that it had to ditch clause 4 to win back Basildon man from the Tories. This was a product of a political calculation and not one Liberals joining the party and getting it to change policy. I think the Liberals Carfrew has in mind joined after this decision on Clause 4 had already happened.

    Currently there is a shift in views in relation to government intervention in the economy, so in terms of policy I don’t think Labour need to do the type of momentous shift as dropping Clause 4 was. This will make it easier for the two sides to come to a compromise on policy- especially given the apparent appeal of many of Labour’s policies. A leader who has not been tarnished by the recent in fighting and who everyday people can relate to and ideally female would be the best choice.

    If Labour successfully limit their losses to about 30 seats – then with a decent leader in place they will be competitive at the next GE especially if it all goes Pete tong on brexit

  48. I hear Scum get given dodgy smart meters.

  49. @Bernard “Mid 30s for Labour is approaching Blair’s score in 2005 and Cameron’s score in 2015, and that does not sound plausible to me on a UNS, not by a long stretch. Of course I could be completely wrong, the electorate have fundamentally changed, and are ready to give Corbyn and socialism a go. Hhhmm”

    It’s not credible, is it? I simply don’t believe ~35% of people who turn up at the poll booth are going to vote for a Labour party run by Corbyn, Abbott and Co.

    I still think it is unlikely that Corbyn will beat Foot’s performance in 1983 and the Tories will end up with more seats than then. Remember Foot’s frontbench was staffed by political titans compared with what’s on offer with the current Labour crop.

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