Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

1 3 4 5 6 7 9
  1. Why didn’t we just cut International development to 0.2%, same as the US, save £10bn and keep free lunches, winter fuel and all manner of other things?? Lunacy.

  2. Andy T

    I am probably in the same position as your parents and take the same view as regards the winter fuel allowance. I don’t think this will impact the election at all and I doubt Labour will overdo an attack on this. When I see the figure appearing on my account I have to spend several minutes working out what exactly it is!

  3. The debate got a pitiful 1.65m or 8.8% of the available audience.

    Not sure ITV would want to repeat this exercise next time and it seems that the BBC & Channel4/Sky have much better proposals given the current circumstances (ie May not wanting to share a stage with Corbyn).

    I am not sure we will ever get the 2010 format debates again unless we have a PM who is far behind in the polls and decides that doing a TV debate cannot make their ratings any worse (as I guess Brown thought).

  4. @ Carfrew
    @Redrich

    Sorry but I can’t resist entering a private feud: I think you are both using philosophical and academic descriptions of Liberal and Libertarian not what ordinary voters consider them to be, and as such will be unlikely to have any particular impact on VI.

    FWIW considering Labour and ID cards I think this was far more to do with those ministers who were ex-communist party of GB (e.g. Charles Clarke) displaying the natural authoritarianism that first attracted them to politics! But in VI terms was popular with WWC voters who thought somehow this would prevent their shed being burgled!

  5. I wonder if UNS will become redundant in this election.

    My suggestion is that Labour are piling up votes in very safe seats, especially in London, and are seriously underperforming in the WM, Wales, Scotland and the North of England. Let’s take a crude measurement of the mean average btween 25% (where Labour are under performing) and 35% (where they are over performing), and we have 30%, which looks spot on to me.

    Mid 30s for Labour is approaching Blair’s score in 2005 and Cameron’s score in 2015, and that does not sound plausible to me on a UNS, not by a long stretch. Of course I could be completely wrong, the electorate have fundamentally changed, and are ready to give Corbyn and socialism a go. Hhhmm.

    It would be great if we had detailed polling of marginals – Lord Ashcroft, where are you?

  6. The combined opposition need to gain only 20 seats to outnumber the Tories and NI unionists. That could put Corbyn into No. 10 as head of a coalition. With tactical voting I don’t think that’s impossible.

  7. The YouGov Scottish poll is interesting. No movement on independance:-
    Should Scotland be an independant country

    Yes 45%
    No 55%

    And on best leaders:

    NS has a +2 rating as FM
    KD has a -19 rating as leader of Labour in Scotland
    RD has a +10 rating as leader of Cons in Scotland.

  8. @Jonboy

    I can’t see that as being possible with the Conservatives polling steadily at 45%+ – it would require tactical voting on a scale not seen before, and I don’t see any evidence of that?

  9. Though these days I say little on this site – as I think I’ve probably said more than enough over the years – I still read it regularly and often enjoy and am better informed by both articles and comments….

    I know there will be a frenzy of comment until the election and then perhaps a dearth for a while thereafter….

    The only thing I think we’re left to wonder about is whether the Labour Leadership’s belief that there is a gathering engagement from young voters is true. It is in a sense the Bernie argument and he too played to large crowns – but in the end he lost quite badly to Clinton in the big states….

    Once it is done and dusted I will remain curious to know what Brexit will really mean because I think Macron and Mutti will not let it mean what Mrs May wishes it to mean…I’m also as curious about what happens next in Ireland…

  10. I am certain that others will disagree and AW has already made it abundantly clear that manifestos have little effect. However, my feeling listening to chatter amongst my age group (60+) is that the Conservative proposal to charge folk against the value of their property over 100,000 pounds for social care is a game changer. For example I heard a woman in Costa yesterday fretting about what will become of her when they force her to sell to settle her alzheimer afflicted husband’s debt when he dies. I dont know if this is how it will work, but there is genuine alarm out there which is not dealt with.

  11. @ RICH – foreign aid

    If you go to p39 of the CON manifesto you’ll note this little phrase

    “…better definition of development spending..”

    I spot some wiggle room on the 0.7% “promise”!!

  12. @JonBoy

    As it currently stands, with nominations closed, there probably aren’t 20 seats to win based on current polling info.

    Thats hold everything and find 20 winnable seats, tough ask. LAst time that happened seats like Stockton South or Somerset North East were red, there isn’t even a red or orange campaign in NE Somerset to speak of….

  13. @Bantams

    Disappointing Tory manifesto with no chance of lifting VIs.

    Yet I still woke this morning with a strange and inexplicable warm glow. It took me a full five minutes to realise it was as a result of Exeter City’s pulsating play-off victory over a brave Carlisle United. A 25 yard rocket to win the tie in the last seconds. Great. We were bottom of the League in November.

    Good luck against Millwall.

  14. The Other Howard,

    For me, the most interesting element of that poll was that the unionist parties are hoovering up 23% of 2014 “Aye” voters, whereas the SNP and Greens are only winning the support of 12% of “Naw” voters. That suggests that unionists are voting on more constitutional lines than nationalists, and it’s causing problems for the SNP, who are down nearly 10% on their 2015 result.

    Also, 24% of 2016 Leave voters currently back independence. This creates an interesting challenge for the SNP: how do they use the EU referendum to justify Indyref without alienating pro-Leave nationalists?

  15. Jonboy

    Why would voters think it best to put Corbyn as PM heading up a coalition of misfits. How would Corbyn hold together Labour in power let alone SNP and what is left of LD and the Greens.

    Surely the thought of this would send even more people over to the Tories.

    I expect the Tories to return to Brexit close to Election Day and to remind voters of the possibility of Corbyn as PM leading ” a coalition of chaos”
    That should add a % or 2 to the Tory vote and frighten any remaining UKIP voters totally.

  16. @Rich
    @Trevor Warne

    I suspect the foreign aid budget is being earmarked for the pay-off to the EU. We will give them, say £5 billion for each of the next five years, provided it is given to countries like Greece who perhaps need it as much as some current recipients.

    The money is still helping those worse off than ourselves, and no implications for the current account.

  17. Tony Dean:
    “I am certain that others will disagree and AW has already made it abundantly clear that manifestos have little effect. However, my feeling listening to chatter amongst my age group (60+) is that the Conservative proposal to charge folk against the value of their property over 100,000 pounds for social care is a game changer”

    Again, anecdotal, and again going against the “manifesto changes nothing rule”, but the huge number of angry comments below an article about the “Dementia Tax” in the Spectator on line edition backs up what you’re saying.

  18. Also, 57% of voters look like voting for unionist parties – hardly the mandate for a second referendum that the SNP would like…

  19. @Redrich

    No use to resort to ad hominems such as “touchy”. My post just pointed out areas of agreement and error dispassionately as I shall now do some more.

    Yes, one can see your subtle shift. In order to skirt around the idea that it was more of a takeover, you want to say it’s just OUTSIDE influence of Labour.

    As opposed to those with more of a Liberal tendency starting to takeover other parties. But that’s what happened. With Liberal VI trashed for decades, those with liberal tendencies start joining other parties, Jenkins etc. started taking over within Labour, and the Selsdon set with Tories on the Economic front.

    Labour fought back against the entryists so much that Jenkins’ gang felt they had to leave to form their own party before joint their natural home, the Liberals. Thatcher was more successful in keeping her hegemony until she was ousted by Major and Clarke etc.

    Years in the doldrums allowed Liberals to resurface later under Blair and then Cameron. And now, once again, liberals ousted, in both cases quite dramatically ousted by Corbyn and May.

    Ironically, such was the prevalence of liberalism in the big two that LDs felt they had to move left to outflank. Ditched it instantly when in power though!!

    If you want to believe these battles were not due to liberals within parties fighting for control of the big two, and instead were all due to the massive outside influence of liberals like Ashdown, Clegg and now the amazingly influential Mr Farron, feel free!! It doesn’t make any sense but there you go…

    P.s. (like I said, I agree they are not liberals in all respects, just as Labour aren’t Socialist in all respects and even libdems aren’t liberal in all respects. I mean look at Farron’s recent difficulties over abortion etc…)

  20. Latest Westminster voting intention (Scotland)
    SNP 42%
    CON 29%
    LAB 19%
    LD 6%
    OTH 3%
    (Fieldwork 15-18 May)

    ***

    Somebody was suggesting yesterday Labour to win seats back from the SNP…!!

  21. BILL PATRICK

    Interesting comment on Scotland. I think the FM drive for a second independance referendum backfired on her when TM called the election. I still expect the SNP to dominate in Scotland but it looks as though the Tories will take several extra seats. Maybe the SNP zenith is now past

    On the GE I think the Tories will return to Brexit and strong and stable government as the hustings draw to a close.

  22. Good Morning to all at UK Polling

    Regarding the ITV debate, I think it fair to say that the vast majority of the public don’t really get engaged with General Elections until 10 days to a fortnight before the vote. So we are probably looking at after the whitsun break, bank holiday Mondaybeing 29th May.

    That will be the 10 days when the public sit up and take notice.

    In the meantime, I feel the best way to engage people is by face to face conversations in market squares, public houses and knocking on doors.

    It can be quite invigorating and you tend to find “the public” is a many headed beast.

  23. It’s all about the leader, and I’m guessing that’s why May has taken a certain risk with the older vote. Brave in my opinion, unlike Corbyn’s manifesto, which is pure fantasy. Sorry if that’s partisan, but that’s how I see it.

    The IFS are due to meet next week after studying the respective manifestos, and to give their opinions on their credibility. Cannot wait.

  24. SORREL

    @”The winter fuel payment changes are another own goal by the Cobservatives”

    Nah-it will be retained by those on lower incomes. The others -who gave it to the grandchildren, or to charity will shrug their shoulders & smile.

  25. @Tony Dean: Your woman in Costa need not worry, for they won’t claim against her house until both die. It’s not the clients or their spouses who should worry, it’s the councils. No one has picked up on the fact that the new £100,000 threshold only makes it more difficult for them to afford to provide care (unless they are compensated, and more, by the government – but don’t forget revenue support grant is ending in 2020). We’re told the winter fuel savings will be used – well, maybe. Not everyone owns a house for them to reclaim against – and that would be some way down the track anyway. The immediate need is now.
    @Bardin1 and Porrohman: Just as there were once shy Tories, so there is an army of shy Corbynistas.

  26. @WB

    “Sorry but I can’t resist entering a private feud: I think you are both using philosophical and academic descriptions of Liberal and Libertarian not what ordinary voters consider them to be.”

    ——–

    It’s not feuding to politely disagree and work through summat. And my simply saying that things like privatisations or free movement are typically Liberal is not arcane philosophy but everyday stuff. And neither of us are disagreeing much over what’s Liberal. We both agree Labour in Sixties and Seventies adopted Liberal policies. The difference is more over the reason why. (Even the Libertarian aim to massively roll back the state is not exactly philosophical. It’s very practical, just not so common).

  27. “The IFS are due to meet next week after studying the respective manifestos, and to give their opinions on their credibility. Cannot wait.”

    Who is going to give their opinion on the credibility of the IFS – since it is a neoliberal infested swamp that doesn’t even know how the monetary system works at a macro level.

    You may as well ask the Vatican research department to pass judgement on contraception laws.

  28. Colin

    “Nah-it will be retained by those on lower incomes. The others -who gave it to the grandchildren, or to charity will shrug their shoulders & smile.”

    My wife and a friend of hers were both painting at the time of that announcement.

    “About bl**dy time they shouted as one. My own sentiments exactly.

  29. What is changing the Labour vote is the belief that Jeremy Corbyn won’t win regardless (which in turn offsets his unpopularity), and for a left wing voter a vote against the Tories is still a vote against the Tories. That, and the details of of the Labour manifesto are also appealing to them also.

  30. @Redrich

    You may also note the rumours of Blair being invited to take over LDs. Prolly won’t happen, but not a surprise if it did!!

  31. Rudyard

    What happens when you meet a devout Tory? I imagine it must be a pretty regular occurrence and I am not sure how somebody of your decidedly Pollyannaish outlook would retain your usual conviviality.

  32. There are some people commenting on here who seem to be under the totally illogical illusion that JC is going to be the next PM. It ain’t going to happen. I suspect the low thirties is the best Labour can hope for, TM won’t complain as JC is likely to still be standing across from her in the HOC in the next parliament.

    This is coming from someone who has never been a natural conservative.

  33. Scottish poll available here:
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rnz6ummmks/TimesResults_170518_Scotland_WestminsterVI_W.pdf

    The overall shift is tiny but looking at the cross breaks I’ve highlighed a few things:
    1/ CON loyalty is immense (97%) and they are grabbing a little bit from everyone else (even the 10% from SNP when multiplied up by SNP’s 2015 share is a lot of voters!)
    2/ Weaponised referendums and talk of a 2-horse race is marginalising SLIB. Most notable is SLIB->CON, % “flow” and change on the month:
    SLIB loyalty 48% (-6)
    SLIB->CON 41% (+10)
    (ie almost as many 2015 SLIB voters are now VI for CON as staying loyal)
    SLIB DK still high at 19%
    3/ SLAB is modestly solidifying its support base (loyalty in SLAB up from 53% to 60%), DKs dropped.

    I really wish a Scottish poll would ask “would you consider voting tactically” as the 2015 vote crossbreak on that would be very interesting! Will many SLAB potential voters “pinch their nose” and vote CON?? Potentially makes an important difference in 5-10 Scottish seats.

  34. May’s social care provisions are something akin to your classic windfall tax on those who’ve had windfalls from QE policy in the SE massively inflating property prices.

    It’s economically useful but of course you have at some point to recover the windfall to get the most benefit, having secured their votes in the meantime. You just have to wait for an opportune moment, Brexit plus Corbyn. Because peeps may feel Corbyn will tap their assets even more…

  35. http://www.markpack.org.uk/149913/maldives-electoral-registration/

    I had no idea that people from Mozambique and Rwanda could vote in our elections.

    If France had joined the Commonwealth before the EU referendum…

  36. “If France had joined the Commonwealth before the EU referendum…”

    ——–

    Obviously a horrific thought but would have been good to see old Col’s reaction!!…

  37. Are there any other ways to access the QE-inflated asset mountain? I mean, what if someone doesn’t need expensive care? They still keep the mountain, an opportunity missed, unless peeps have more ways to tap into it…

  38. @ MILLIE – I agree. Helping countries within the EU seems just the kind of “..better definition of development spending..” that means we pay off our divorce bill on the quiet and save the EU the immediate concerns about plugging the gap in our contributions. I know we floated the idea before and am certain Spreadsheet Phil has made the connection – I would guess the bean counters in the EU commission are also aware of the obvious compromise solution on the bill and future EU budget.
    Direct payments to Italy, Greece, etc to deal with the refugee crisis? I’d go further and say some of our NATO 2% is “foreign aid” assistance for EU given our troop deployments in E.Europe. I’m pretty sure the EU would be happy with a “..better definition of NATO spending..” that included payments/military support on the Russian border!

    I suspect CON are fully aware of it but keeping that card in their back pocket for mid-term deployment if the economy dips a little? If your going to comfortably win the election anyway, why not keep some cards back for later use and quietly convert the foreign aid piggy bank as a rainy day fund!

  39. Rory – spot on.

  40. “What is changing the Labour vote is the belief that Jeremy Corbyn won’t win regardless (which in turn offsets his unpopularity), and for a left wing voter a vote against the Tories is still a vote against the Tories. That, and the details of of the Labour manifesto are also appealing to them also.”

    ———

    So what we wanna know is… How much? How much is it the policies and how much is it because they assume he can’t win, and how much do some want a stronger opposition and similar mooted factors….

  41. @Alec,

    Just a thought, and I agree it may hit core vote, but what is wrong with somebody with £1m house paying for extensive care rather than the state?, instead of wanting the house ring fenced to pass on to the family….There is a time bomb here that needs addressing, but it’s very difficult to get it past people…

    Rich

  42. Reginald

    Not pollyannish, I hope ! Just try to see the best in people and things.

    Of course, I am confronted by voters of all hues. Politeness and the acceptance that we all agree and disagree on matters is the best way to proceed.

    Rudeness doesn’t get you anywhere.

    I prefer to live on the sunny side of the street.

  43. Tony Dean
    I heard a woman in Costa yesterday fretting about what will become of her when they force her to sell to settle her alzheimer afflicted husband’s debt when he dies

    I’ve been wondering about the psychology of this. It’s all very well saying that partners won’t be kicked out of the home, but will people believe that? More generally, will the prospect of losing the home just eat away at older people’s sense of security and leave some feeling that it’s not really their home any more?

    I think older people tend to value security and certainty and these proposals take that away. It can’t be pleasant to be old, frail, nearing the end of your life and know that every bit of help you need is eating into the inheritance you hoped to leave, no matter how often your children tell you (and I would like to think that the overwhelming majority would be sincere) that they don’t care about the money, they want you to be comfortable.

  44. @TOH

    You missed

    May at -17
    Corbyn -36

    In Scotland

  45. I don’t understand why the Conservatives didn’t simply make the winter fuel allowance taxable (pensions are), hence making it cheap to administer?

    They must have the figures calculating the reduced expenditure – or does the means testing have to be set very tight to get the money they expect?

  46. It seems to me, that if you chose a less lucrative but more socially useful career like being a paramedic, why shouldn’t you have your care needs paid for by the state, while letting the banker who made squillions while taking down the ecomomy pay for their care?

    This is a polarised view however if one doesn’t also acknowledge the reverse anomaly: contrasting peeps with not much money who’ve caused quite a bit of needless trouble, versus the well-off who actually contributed quite a lot.

    In one version of an ideal world, whether you got to keep your state-sponsored asset pile would in no small way depend on how much you’d contributed to peep’s benefit. But of course in practice this is a rather tricky thing to execute…

  47. @hireton,

    I doubt that very much. It will be deferred,

  48. Scottish Independence Referendum, YouGov poll:

    Age: 18-49 yrs

    Yes: 57%
    No: 43%

  49. COUPER2802

    I left them off because I don’t actually think their standing terribly relevent to how Scotland votes on June 8th. I could be wrong of course.

  50. @rich

    Possibly but give it 5 years and a continuing cash crisis in local authorities and we shall see.

1 3 4 5 6 7 9