Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

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  1. “on the itv debate Farron in full on search for remain voters”

    ——–

    Has he ever thought of campaigning in Europe? Might have more luck…

  2. S Thomas

    :)

  3. @S Thomas

    The Conservatives are guaranteeing the Triple Lock on pensions until 2020.

    Here is a quote from page 66 of the Conservative manifesto.

    “So we will keep our promise to maintain the Triple Lock until 2020, and when it expires we will introduce a new Double Lock, meaning that pensions will rise in line with the earnings that pay for them, or in line with inflation – whichever is highest.”
    2017 Conservative manifesto page 66.

    See the link below:

    https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/manifesto2017/Manifesto2017.pdf

  4. Touch of realism needed tonight, I suspect.

    There has been some excitement at the significant poll moves of Labour, and this has led to a deal of anticipation about how tight this might get.

    However, the reality is that, according to the polls, Labour have moved from a position that threatened to effectively eliminate them as a national (UK) political party, to one where they face nothing worse than a monumental once in a generation drubbing. At heart, this is nothing to get excited about.

    In my own, safe Labour, north eastern constituency, which our local paper says has been red since 1903, the former Labour MP and candidate says the Tories could win, and for the first time in living memory there is a mass mobilisation of party members to attempt to fight off the unthinkable.

    The recent poll movements might help them do this, but lets be honest – worrying about holding your absolute banker seats does not suggest we should be getting too carried away with the polls just yet.

  5. @Redrich

    And yes, stuff like ID cards is summat where not that liberal. But like I said, they weren’t 100% Liberal. Just a lot more liberal than before…

    Regarding interventionism… you can be quite interventionist in some ways to force more liberalism in others. E.g. Free Movement, some of the multicultural stuff etc…

    ID cards might indeed have been part of that. And there was much intervention to force privatisations and such liberalism. Oh the irony…

  6. @Syzygy

    “I’m sure I’d like your world … synths an all. When I was at IC, all my physics friends were involved with making their own modular synthesisers …”

    ———-

    Ah, another golden era I missed out on. They’re re-releasing the Moog Modular though… prolly be ultra pricey, but tempting to sell a kidney or summat,

    Thanks muchly for the link, I’m in the pub at the mo’ but shall check it out later!! And your friends research sounds intriguing…

  7. This is quite interesting – https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/18/eu-trade-deals-competition-labour-standards-canada-brexit-uk

    It puts a bit more thought into the idea that the UK can get a good trade deal when we leave.

    Unlike much of the commentary and political claims over recent EU trade deals, it helpfully points out that the Canada/EU deal contained provisions on environmental, labour and competition issues, precisely because the EU doesn’t want a race to the bottom.

    For the UK, this is significant, especially as we are already completely integrated with the EU. From the article – “EU leaders have agreed that a future Brexit trade deal should not give the UK “unfair competitive advantages” through lower social and environmental standards or tax competition. The bloc will also seek to guard against the British government handing out subsidies to favoured industries in a way that would tilt the playing field against European competitors.”

    Companies like Nissan might find assurances given cannot necessarily be honoured within an EU/UK trade deal.

    Even more interesting are Macron’s comments on his ‘buy European’ idea. As part of the reaction to the impacts of globalisation, Macron wants a ‘buy European’ act for the EU, which would make it harder for non EU countries to win public contracts. The executive have not dismissed this idea, and it adds to the sense that leaving the world’s largest trading block as free trade starts to go out of fashion might not be the brightest bit of timing.

  8. @Carfrew

    I think you are missing the points I am making.

    1 – policies are not necessarily the exclusive preserve of a political parties or theory

    2 – there is often confusion in the use of the term ‘liberal’ between the political party and using it terms of assessing a position on a topic in terms of scale of intereventism/authoritarianism – liberal/non-interventionist

    Foot et al are often described as libertarian socialist as they had liberal with a small ‘l’ views on individual rights but had interventionist views on the economy. In basic terms the view is that people should be free but as long as there is economic inequality people cant be free, therefore control the economic to ensure economic equality and individual freedom. In terms of political philosophy this has a long standing history you can trace back to early Christianity and whilst sharing some roots with liberalism it is distinct from it. Corbyn comes from this strain of political thought.

  9. Well I have to say I’m enjoying seeing the polls actually move this time, unlike the 2015 election. Hopefully that is a signal that their samples are a better reflection of the electorate this time round.

    I wonder if AW is willing to open up his mind to the possibility that a manifesto can move polls, as we have definitely seen a movement since the Labour one was released.

  10. @SYZYGY

    IC as in Imperial? Snap!

  11. @Redrich

    “I think you are missing the points I am making.

    1 – policies are not necessarily the exclusive preserve of a political parties or theory

    2 – there is often confusion in the use of the term ‘liberal’ between the political party and using it terms of assessing a position on a topic in terms of scale of intereventism/authoritarianism – liberal/non-interventionist”

    ———-

    No, it’s just that having made some useful points, you are now in danger of resorting to quibbling.

    At the end of the day, policies like privatisations and free movement etc. are pretty obviously liberal.

    That it is possible to agree in principle that things like death penalty and other policies unspecified might be more complicated in provenance does not alter the fact that Labour adopted a number of liberal policies and accepted a number more already in place by Tories.

    Regarding Foot et al, once again you are taking refuge in the unspecified. What policies were in their platform that were Libertarian?

  12. Richard,

    Not sure there is any particular dispute that a manifesto launch, rather like a party conference, can give a party a bounce. The relevant point is whether or not it sticks. It hasn’t taken much, if anything, off the Tory VI

  13. Labour’s advance position is entirely due to the implosion in the Lib Dems. .

    I’ve said several times times before that the Lib Dems tactic of trying to appeal to embittered Remainers was hopeless from the start.

    The market is too small, there are too many competitors for it, and Farron is the least credible Lib Dem leader they’ve had since the Party was formed.

    People have moved on. The Lib Dems have, by their own bad attitude to democracy fatally damaged their own brand as far as this election is concerned. I wouldn’t surprised if Nick Clegg loses his seat.

  14. @Richard

    ” wonder if AW is willing to open up his mind to the possibility that a manifesto can move polls, as we have definitely seen a movement since the Labour one was released.”

    It’s at least arguable that, pre Lab manifesto, the party was already on an upward trajectory.

  15. @Alec

    As Labour got30.4% in the 2015 election and they are currently 34% in the last poll your view that this is a ‘once in a generation monumental drubbing’ seems childishly partisan and not in keeping with the ethos of this site

  16. @ ROB
    @SYZYGY
    IC as in Imperial? Snap!

    Why we’re practically related :)… which school were you in? I was in Zoology …

  17. @RAF I agree the polls showed a small but consistent shift – we surely haven’t seen enough to guarantee that the manifesto caused another small upward shift but it is looking possible

  18. Incidentally. It’s irrelevant how the vote shares out between the losers.

    The mantra for all poll watchers in this and recent elections is ‘Watch the Tory Share’.

    It continuously stays from at 45% to 49% suggesting a majority of at least 100.

    You also have to remember where these Labour voters actually are. lt’s no good Labour piling on yet more votes onto these big majorities in the inner cities whilst losing votes in the marginals which we saw vote in the Local Elections.

    The Tories are still well on course for a big win. I myself however am sticking to what I was saying at the very beginning. A Tory majority of about 50-60

    I also understand that this Triple Lock change has gone down well with focus groups, and in feedback the Tories are getting on the doorstep.

    They floated the idea two weeks ago to see what would happen and they’ve been pleasantly surprised. Pensioners see the fairness in it, and younger in people who feel diddled by the present system have been mollified.

    So seeing as they are the only ones willing to address it ,it’s win win win all round for the Tories.

  19. Julius
    Thank you for the correction. They are brighter than i thought.
    I feel that this manifesto is a slow burner. Two features:

    a. To repeal london convention.they will be dancing in Grimsby tonight!

    b. Unilaterally redefining Foreign aid to enanble us to incorporate other areas of spending within the framework. satelites, mini fusion power sources -get your bids in now

  20. Im slightly amused by people scratching their heads that Corbyn isn’t putting off as many people as milliband. And the personal abuse chucked at him seriously contravenes the conventions of this site.

    Corbyn – and what he represents – is actually very attractive to a lot of people. He is not a great orator – but he is seen by many as sincere and principled and generally decent and with policies they wholeheartedly support. Also he is does not speak in “politics speak” of soundbites – he argues his case cleary, sincerity and genuine passion. He is seen as a huge breath of fresh air after the empty vacuity of much of the utterances of milliband, brown and blair in their ultimately doomed attempts to win over mythical “middle england”.

    Nor is seen as “out of touch” by many ordinary working class voters -he is a familiar type – the earnest lefty, socially conscious local community worker, teacher, youth worker, support worker, community campaigner – the sort of person they will come across on a daily basis.

    I work in w class area and i was chatting to two young women – not university educated, solid working class, not particularly political. “have you registered to vote?” “yeah!” they said – ” labour mate – cos corbyn hes alright – hes not a dick like the others – says what he believes”

    I dont think this is atypical – no labour will not win – but there is a groundswell of mass enthusiasm for him and his remodelled labour party – especially amongst the young. He pulls in crowds of thousands to cheer him everytime he makes a public appearance.

    No way would this be happening with Burnham, cooper or an other as leader purusing the same old same old. Remember the “ed stone”? good grief….

    The tories (and the right of the labour party) underestimate him – and what he represents – at their peril.

  21. I’m watching Question Time and I’ve just realised why I’ve stopped watching it – Angela Rayner is one reason – what an annoying woman – and the two women having a shouting match and Dimbleby letting them. Also the audience seems unbalanced or are the left wingers simply more noisy and ignorant!

  22. “enable us to incorporate other areas of spending within the framework…
    Satellites, mini fusion power sources -get your bids in now”

    ———

    !!!!!!!!

    Omfg etc.

  23. “Also the audience seems unbalanced or are the left wingers simply more noisy and ignorant!”

    ——–

    Would you prefer them to be the opposite? Quiet, sneaky and on the right?

  24. Not at all Carfrew – just more balanced because it just doesn’t appear so that’s all!

  25. @Carfrew

    ‘No, it’s just that having made some useful points, you are now in danger of resorting to quibbling.’

    Not quibbling/or trying to score points just clarifying the point I am trying to make after a bottle of wine,

    ‘At the end of the day, policies like privatisations and free movement etc. are pretty obviously liberal.’ – yes agreed in terms of descriptor of economic policy. Not necessarily so clear cut in terms of the use of the word as a political descriptor. Here is a quote from Roy Jenkins –
    I distrust the deification of the enterprise culture. I think there are more limitations to the wisdom of the market than were dreamt of in Mrs Thatcher’s philosophy. I believe that levels of taxation on the prosperous, having been too high for many years (including my own period at the Treasury), are now too low for the provision of decent public services. And I think the privatisation of near monopolies is about as irrelevant as (and sometimes worse than) were the Labour Party’s proposals for further nationalisation in the 1970s and early 1980s.
    I would in essence see Jenkins as a political liberal – but I would not class Thatcher as a Liberal. If you take the case of Margaret Thatcher she is the diametric opposite of Foot – liberal on economic policy, authoritarian on social issues.

    ‘Regarding Foot et al, once again you are taking refuge in the unspecified. What policies were in their platform that were Libertarian?’
    How about pro-civil liberties, anti-death penalty, freedom of speech (one of Foot’s basic core belief’s which he staunchly defended during WWII), pro women’s emancipation etc

    Getting back to the original point – Blair was closer to Jenkins than say Brown in areas of economic policy, you could imagine the quote above coming from Blair, but in terms of social policy (tough on crime and the cause of crime, willingness to restrict civil liberties etc) I wouldn’t classify his as a liberal. Blair was more comfortable accepting the economic consensus that Brown who at heart and by inclination was more interventionist.

    Another obvious area where it is problematic in describing the likes of Blair and Thatcher as Liberals is foreign policy. Historically the ‘liberal’ position on foreign policy has been non intervention – and one the main opponents of the war in Iraq was the Liberals (as Brown always refers to the LDs).

  26. Arguing about QT’s audience is really meaningless.

    You don’t know where the mics are at any one moment.

    If you are carefully listening (but why would you spend your life on it) you would recognise that completely different ideological stances can have the same noise level.

    The only time I remember when all these programmes pointed to the same direction was 1997.

  27. @ Sine Nomine

    My thoughts exactly, you can always tell what sort of audience is present by the amount of people with pink/red/green colour hair.

    As I posted earlier, the left likes to shout people down who do not share their views and applaud hysterically for those that do.

  28. @Bardin1

    “As Labour got 30.4% in the 2015 election and they are currently 34% in the last poll your view ( @Alec ) that this is a ‘once in a generation monumental drubbing’ seems childishly partisan and not in keeping with the ethos of this site”

    With the collapse of UKIP and the squeezing of LDems so that GE 2017 appears to be becoming a two horse race in England and to a lesser extent in Wales. It is thus entirely logical that LAB VI should increase at the same time as CON VI. However, it is clear CON VI has increased at a much higher rate than LAB VI in every current poll when compared to 2015 GE.

    If I may resort to the football analogy, in 2015 CONS won 2:0.

    Current opinion polls suggest CONS are winning 5:1

    Most people would agree 5:1 in a football match is a drubbing.

    The consolation goal does not count for much though it may allow the manager to keeps his job until next season.

    I don’t think Alec was being partisan, just brutally honest as things stand today.

    Of course the actual result could be different, three weeks is long time in politics, but history tells us this is unlikely whether we like it or not.

  29. Theresa”longshanks” May

    It appears that the Policy of indifference to the Union has come to an end. The manifesto tells us that TM is heading north and is armed and dangerous at least to the SNP. She marches with the promise of much treasure

    1.She is weaponising the fishing industry with Brexit and leaving the London Convention to enthuse scottish fishermen ;
    2.Scotland will have to bid for how much of the fund replacing our EU payments it wants.I do not think TM will require NS to come to london in chains with her bid;Will NS be able to resist?
    3. A new borderlands fund to prize those areas away from the SNP
    4.an extension of the existing strategic schemes ;
    5. more favourable tax thresholds
    6. No referendum until 2022

    she clearly regards the SNP as saboteurs and sees no reason why the Tories should not be the majority party in Scotland

  30. Laszlo

    Bit racist to make a comment on where the “mics” are in the question time audience. I expected better:-)

  31. @Redrich

    Agreed that Jenkins was more socially liberal than economic. And Thatcher more economically liberal than social.

    I have argued the same myself. In the Sixties, social liberals started taking over Labour, and Economic Liberals the Tories. Hence Heath liberalising banking etc.

    It’s once you get to Blair that you see more of both economic AND social liberalism, and following him, Cameron for the Tories.

    Once again, yes you can find aspects of Blairism that aren’t properly Liberal. This doesn’t alter the fact it was a big move along the liberal spectrum. And even more along economically which you are studiously avoiding!!

  32. @Redrich

    “How about pro-civil liberties, anti-death penalty, freedom of speech (one of Foot’s basic core belief’s which he staunchly defended during WWII), pro women’s emancipation etc.”

    ——-

    Can’t see how these things are Libertartian, which conventionally is a case of having massive issues with the State. Liberal, maybe. But like I said, Labour co-opted some Liberalism back then, including Jenkins. It’s just a lot more since…

  33. @Redruch

    The fact you can point to the liberal takeover beginning earlier does not negate my point but rather reinforces it. Been saying it all along…

  34. S Thomas

    Unintended. But its in the spelling anyway :-)

    I do find though the extremely heightened awareness of both sides of BBC programmes puzzling.

    Would 0.3 second applause for,the “wrong side” be an evidence of bias that may turn the elections upside down?

  35. Kehu

    Hear Hear

    Reading recent threads: if being excessively optimistic about one party/ always seeking to put the best spin in one direction = “partisan”, well that sums up Bardini quite well it would seem.

  36. I think people should reign in some of the bile with regards to corbyn. you may think hes a disaster/a fool/a loony leftie – but its clear that a reasonable chunk of voters are very enthusiastic about him and his politics – especially young people.
    Im not the least bit surprised that extra exposure of corbyn and his politics has given labour a lift in the polls.

    Nor is he necesarily seen as “out of touch” by many ordinary working class voters -he is a familiar type – the earnest lefty, socially conscious local community worker, teacher, youth worker, support worker, community campaigner – the sort of person they will come across on a daily basis. Unlike someone like Teresa may.

  37. wrt to how the tory manifesto is going down – this what ive seen on social media –

    “Labour asks billionaires to pay more
    Conservatives ask pensioners to pay more
    #ConservativeManifesto”

    Yes you can argue the toss about that and thats its simplistic, or distorted – but this sort of pithy criticism could hit home.

  38. The logic pre election was that centrist Labour support would drain to the Lib Dems as Corbyn was unelectable. What seems to have happened is quite the opposite, Labour seem to have constructed a progressive alliance within the party which is draining support for Lib Dems and the Greens. It would seem running a remain campaign in a general election is less compelling than attempting a leave campaign.

    I can’t see the polls weakening for Labour at this point barring a number of big mistakes or somethng particularly juicy is thrown at them – surely the historic accusations of support for various things is costed in now?

    On the other hand the Conservative manifesto is hugely risky on many fronts. Barring older people looking past the Daily Mail’s unreasonably positive take on things, the care plan is hugely risky and an easily exploitable fear that Labour can tap. To a lesser extent the manifesto can easily be seen as pro fox hunting and pro fracking which are both hot button topics in certain areas of the country. To her credit Theresa May has been utterly fearless in producing it as a platform for election, however i wonder if the Conservative support will prove softer once it becomes less about suppoting strength and stability and instead about tangible things such as taking free school lunches away,

    As a final note of caution, May has the air of a World championship boxer who hasn’t fought anyone that’s caused a problem for them. The evidence would suggest she’s the favorite but her media appearances have been mixed at best and when she starts interacting with a live audience with large home viewing audiences things could get very tricky and the careful management of the last few weeks could go up in smoke. The same could be said for Corbyn but he obviously has a lot less to lose and has spent the last 2 years dealing with hostile responses so he has the advantage.

    To return to the boxing metaphor I have a suspicion that Theresa May could have a glass jaw which would make the last couple of weeks quite interesting

  39. I’ve just come home thought I’d check out the Goss , gee some of you guys need to chill out ! the tories are still rating at over 45% for labour to achieve any sort of majority they would have to be 2 or 3 % ahead of the tories which would probably need labour to get into the forties and tories sinking under 40 how likely do you think this scenario would be , ooh and the idea that a swarm of o.a.p’s are going to switch from may to Corbyn is in my opinion beyond credible.

  40. Ironic that, in championing Brexit and chasing Leave voters, the Tories have devised a manifesto that adopts the worst of the EU’s protectionism.

  41. @Bardin1
    ‘As Labour got30.4% in the 2015 election and they are currently 34% in the last poll your view that this is a ‘once in a generation monumental drubbing’ seems childishly partisan and not in keeping with the ethos of this site’

    Labour actually polled 31.2% in 2015 on a GB basis – which is what the pollsters measure!

  42. Busy day politically, hardly room for polling. But for Anthony or anyone interested in the Yougov survey:

    I see labour leads conservatives in the under 50 age group, and trails in 50 and above. That seems to be something of an extension to discussion about students being the ones supporting Remain/labour.

    And having noticed this split, the tory manifesto chooses to attack the wealth of the older voter. Brave. So you vote leave to get a better future for your grandchildren, but as a result you might now leave them nothing when you die? Let that one sink in a bit.

    The actual raw data for support stands at labour 25%, conservative 33%. That sounds pretty close to me. Moreover at least at this quoted accuracy, the conservatives percentage stayed static while labour gained two points.

    Don’t know 16%, will not vote 9%. There are more ‘dont knows’ amongst 2015 labour, lib dem and UKIP voters than conservatives by near 2:1. So the former conservatives have decided they are still conservatives and register in the current conservative total, whereas more of the former labour/lib have yet to decide. On past performance they might be expected to go home.

    Where will the UKIP dont knows go? Seems to me, UKIPPers have no party loyalty, because it did not previously exist. Former conservatives have presumably gone home already, if they believe in both conservativism and Leave. So the remaining UKIP ‘dont knows’ ought to be those who came from parties other than CON, and so are torn. I conclude the residual UKIP ‘don’t knows’ are rather more likely to end up labour than those who have already left.

    Though the remaining diehard UKIPPers might be forced to change by lack of a candidate. I see the table reports 2:1 going con rather than lab, but just as many going to WNV/DK/someone else.

    On this basis, the raw support figures could end up around 35%/35% con/lab.

    Remaining UKIPpers are more worried about stopping immigration than leaving the EU. While May might talk tough on this, her record as home secretary for cutting immigration is abysmal. There is no plan how this might be done.

    Lib vote falling, presumably more likely to go labour than con, because they previously selected ‘remain’ in the ratio 6:1.

    There is no column for how people who did not vote in 2015 plan to vote now!

    Preference for May over Corbyn as next PM dropped a few percent. Those preferring Corbyn plus undecided (who presumably don’t mind who gets it), would now outnumber those preferring May. Big enough pool to win.

    Declared labour voters top concern is health. Not a strong CON card.

    Labour and Con vote is polarised in both cases 7:2 on Brexit, but in opposite directions lab=leave, con=remain. Remaining Libs even more remainish, while remaining UKIP 100:1 pro leave.

    More people think a labour government would mean taxes went down than under a conservative government. People think labour would tax the rich, whereas conservatives would reduce taxes on the rich.

    Did I mention that canvassers I spoke to today from labour in this currently tory constituency seemed remarkably optimistic about their chances locally? It wouldn’t amaze me if this constituency went back to labour at this election, though probably odds against.

    I think the conservatives are poring over polls just as much as me, and must understand the own goal in their manifesto. It was a forced mistake, not an accident. They understand it is a hit against them, but they felt they had to do it now. They expect bad times ahead.

  43. @Rob Sheffield

    In addition to holding Edinburgh South , I believe that Labour has a realistic prospect of gaining seats such as East Lothian – Edinburgh North & Leith – Midlothian ( based on the local elections) – and one of the Paisley seats.

  44. er, I meant lab=remain, con=Leave. What do you expect at this time?

  45. Yougov Scotland

    SNP 42
    Con 29
    Lab 19
    Lib 6

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/865346310282649600

  46. “There is no column for how people who did not vote in 2015 plan to vote now!”

    ——–

    Yes, the Carfrew column. Still not voting!!

  47. That’s a pretty one-sided post Danny, but some interesting points nonetheless.

    One issue for Labour though is that something like 61% of voters did not vote Labour in 2015, and do not like Corbyn. Other than perhaps a few Tory-hating Kippers, it’s hard to see much of that group moving to Labour. I can’t help but think the IRA comments will also cost him a lot of returning Kippers.

  48. @Danny

    The idea that Kippers are going to back Corbyn and Abbott over immigration after their stated positions rather than May is fantastical. But then you continue to believe that May wants to keep us in the EU! I assume in this parallel universe, the Tories will get a huge mandate on their manifesto promise to Leave the EU alongside the Referendum mandate and then overturn both of them?

  49. The bounce that Labour has had in recent polls is very similar to that experienced by most parties shortly after their conferences e.g. when Labour held its conference it received a short term boost in the polls. This is largely due to increased media focus on the party and its policies going forward.

    I believe the current improvement in Labour’s voting intention in the polls is largely due to them being centre stage in the media over the past week or so (largely due to the leak of their manifesto and its final release on Tuesday) with multiple stories about Corbyn and his policies. I noticed the same increase in Conservative voting intention in the polls when the election was first called as they received a lot of media attention at that time.

    I suspect Labour’s voting intention will either stabilise or fall. Some people appear to be getting overexcited about Jeremy Corbyn and seem to view him as some sort of messiah; his polling figures (as opposed to the Labour Party in general) reveal a very different story.

  50. From what I’ve seen, the obsession with Brexit still persists amongst a sizeable minority of voters, including not a few Lab voters who believe Tory/UKIP guarantee we will leave in a way Lab does not. In their minds this Trumps all other considerations: I doubt many abandoned kippers will go Lab in these circumstances.
    Set against that some natural Tories equally obsessed with remain and I suspect a high propensity to vote tactically amongst the ‘progressive alliance’ given the current imbalance (and relatively encouraging behaviours from all progressive parties -absent or paper only candidates) and all this could add up to a score draw, but with some quite surprising local variations which I suspect will favour Lab and perhaps LD and even Greens.

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