Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

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  1. Both polls show a narrowing. Most surprising to me is Corbyn’s relatively (compared to Ed M) good figures.

  2. Fascinating the Corybn scores substantially better than Miliband at this stage in the electoral cycle.

    I guess playing to your base in a clear and unambiguous way does have some benefits.

    I would not be at all surprised to see the Labour share of vote increase on 2015, although not by drastic amounts. But enough to perhaps prevent an utter Tory landslide and convert it into a merely convincing victory.

  3. @Pete B

    Agreed. That is shocking.

  4. As I posted in the previous thread:

    I think that a majority of 100 seems about right.

    For 150+ majority would require a Labour collapse in their heartlands, which I suspect won’t happen for several reasons:

    1 – The Labour Manifesto contained a lot of policies that appeal to Labour’s core vote.
    2 – It’s quite obvious that TM will get a good majority, so if a Labour voter likes their local MP, but isn’t too hot on JC, they can vote Labour safe in the knowledge that JC won’t be PM.
    3 – There is an argument that given a solid TM majority, beefing up the opposition a bit makes sense.

    Therefore I think that the Labour vote may hold at around 33%.

  5. The TV debates before the 2010 election turned British politics into a three party system, with the LibDems looking like they’d hold the balance of power (and possibly more).

    The huge Tory lead is now turning us back to a two party system.

  6. I’ve just thought of one reason Corbyn might be doing better than Ed. He has so far avoided a ‘bacon sandwich’ moment. Indeed he doesn’t seem to go in for silly stunts to prove that he’s normal (apart from the train fiasco).

    It’s noticable how many of the PR disasters for politicians are to do with food. Ed and his bacon sandwich, his brother and his banana, Mandelson ordering guacamole in a chippy etc. Sorry, not trying to be partisan, I’m sure there’s plenty from other parties too, those just spring to mind.

  7. @ CATMANJEFF

    Don’t forget that, with the demise of UKIP, the one thing that stood in the way of Tory majorities in many constituencies is now gone.

  8. I think we all have to acknowledge that a trend is appearing and we are certainly back to two party politics.
    All to pkay for.

  9. So would corbyn get the most votes since blair as leader?

  10. I must admit to being surprised that Labour is seemingly heading towards the mid-30s, and that Corbyn is better regarded than Miliband. I really didn’t think the Labour message or Corbyn’s apparent lack of prime ministerial quality would go down well.

  11. I wonder if the current Tory Campaign is being questioned?

    I live in Labour seat, fairly marginal, and we’ve had two identical leaflets from the Conservatives, with no reference to the local candidate, or any other policies than giving TM a mandate to negotiate Brexit.

    The Labour MP has had three leaflets out about things she’s done locally etc.

    If I may say so, I think many people would prefer the local angle, and may consider the Conservative Campaign to be a little high-handed.

  12. As a Conservative voter, my one disappointment today is the continued fixation on international development. Don’t think it’s a vote winner that this comes ahead in priority of free school lunches for our own kids. Just seems weird to me?

  13. Rich
    Agreed. All parties except UKIP seem fixated on foreign aid. Do they think it gives them some sort of global moral authority or something?

  14. Catmanjeff

    I assume that your prediction relates to the Yougov crossbreaks – rather than the universal application of the national headline figures. On the basis of the latter ,Labour would lose just 26 seats to the Tories on a swing of 3.2% – leaving them with 206 seats. In addition, Labour might claw back a few of their 2015 losses to the SNP.

  15. “I really didn’t think the Labour message or Corbyn’s apparent lack of prime ministerial quality would go down well.”

    The message isn’t the issue. All of their policies are popular, most with an overall plurality of voters. Indeed many of their policies are extremely popular with Tory voters.

    However, well know from 2015 that a basket of popular policies does not a government make.

  16. @Graham

    Yes, that is what they are based on.

  17. (that is regional cross breaks)

  18. @ SSSIMON

    I really didn’t think the Labour message or Corbyn’s apparent lack of prime ministerial quality would go down well.
    ————————————————————————–
    Speaking for myself, I have never been able to understand why Jeremy Corbyn was so generally perceived to have a lack of ‘prime ministerial’ or leadership quality. Nor for that matter, why policies slightly to the right of Harold Wilson would be seen to be unacceptable.

  19. Development aid isn’t just about helping poor countries. It’s about soft political influence, hence why both parties tend to support it. Used carefully, its benefits can easily outweigh the costs in terms of future goodwill but also boosting the growth of an economy that may buy more British goods as it grows.

    As an anecdote, I have a friend in Zambia presently working with DFID using development aid to help develop hospital infrastructure. Where does the equipment end up coming from? The UK. Why? Because he’s British and they therefore trust him and his ideas. This tends to snowball in equipment purchases since once nurses, doctors and admin are familiar with a certain brand, they tend to prefer it.

  20. @ SYZYGY

    “Speaking for myself, I have never been able to understand why Jeremy Corbyn was so generally perceived to have a lack of ‘prime ministerial’ or leadership quality. Nor for that matter, why policies slightly to the right of Harold Wilson would be seen to be unacceptable.”

    What your saying may be objectively accurate, but I think it’s the perception with the public that generally counts, and Corbyn’s perception is unarguably poor in so far as it’s reported by the media and commented on by the likes of us.

  21. @ JimJam

    I bumped into Colin Rallings a few days ago – FWIW my view on seats in the North East is very close to his.

  22. Majority of 100 on the IM poll = a landslide.

    After 7 years of austerity that would be amazing. Until the extreme and cruelly unsual factors of ‘Brexit’ and ‘Hard Left Labour leadership’ are pointed out.

    Dont forget also that the marginal and regional polling showed larger than UNS swings/ and that UKIP not standing in nearly 50% of seats.

    A 100 on UNS could be nearer 150 in actuality.

  23. “Labour might claw back a few of their 2015 losses to the SNP”

    WTF??

  24. It seems that TM is not going after as big a majority as possible. She is using her big polling advantage to clear the decks of policies she either does not like or thinks irrelevant. She is also setting out policies that she thinks will be unpopular, but in her eyes necessary, which need to be in the manifesto to avoid trouble later, not least with her own party.

    Given the above, I think she would settle for a majority of over 50, especially if it includes a number of Scottish seats. I still think she will end up with a majority of between 70 and 80 and about 44% to 45% of the popular vote.

  25. The sadness is that had Corbyn presented a half decent impression as Leader of the Opposition in parliament and for the last two years, I really do wonder just where Labour might be now.

    Corbyn is good at the campaign stuff, no question of that. His style does create something of a buzz, and his refreshing honesty is seen as a plus point by very many people, including those who will never vote for him. He is also promoting a complete change of policy not just from May, but from 40 years of extremist economic orthodoxy that led to the crash, and there is something in this approach that people respond to, even if they quibble about specific policy details.

    This is why I despaired of the man. Just a modicum of organisation and management for the last two years could have seen him start five points ahead and possible end up running may relatively close with a good campaign.

  26. From what I can see, no party has won >45% of the vote since 1970, nor has the combined Con/Lab %age exceeded 80% since 1979. Are we going to see either/both these levels breached this time? I just can’t see May polling higher than Thatcher, no matter how dysfunctional Labour may be. So I’ll be surprised if we see the 45% level beaten on 8 June.

    The squeezing of the smaller parties is more interesting. Ukip has been in free fall for 12 months, but we seem to be seeing a definite move to Lab from LD in recent days. Is the local Lab message of “Corbyn has no chance so it’s safe to vote for me” by candidates cutting through? Is there a desire to ensure there is a credible opposition (though simply having more Lab MPs surely doesn’t achieve this if the Corbynista/PLP standoff continues post-8 June)? Is the move just of “realistic Remainers” who don’t share Farron’s desire to re-run the Brexit referendum (similar to possible SNP defectors who don’t want indyref2)?

    Labour polling at 30-34 (so averaging around 32%, ie roughly flat versus Ed M’s performance) looks realistic if LDs are defecting for tactical and/or reasons of policy differences (on the latter point also hard to see many LD supporters being happy with a leader who struggles to accept gay marriage and has been reported to be an anti-abortionist in the fairly recent past).

  27. @ Rob Sheffield

    To be fair to Graham – I don’t think he was actually claiming this would happen. It was more of a query to CMJ on methodology (UNS vs regional cross breaks).

    UNS would suggest Lab gains from SNP could happen, but GB UNS is meaningless for predicting Scottish results.

    I’m also pretty dubious about using UNS for the NE of England where the outcome in a lot of seats is all about how the collapsing UKIP vote will or won’t transfer to Cons. There could be other areas with similar issues, but the NE is where I live so I think I understand the dynamic a bit better.

  28. Labour have been getting positive coverage for their manifesto? Have I crossed over in to a parallel universe? The press have been slating them!

  29. @JIM JAM @ EXILEINYORKS

    NW Durham at 4:1 is interesting!. Non incumbent non local Lab candidate, need a swing back to cons but still?

  30. RMJ1,
    “It seems that TM is not going after as big a majority as possible.”

    Yes. But on the other hand, if you come at the issue from trying to achieve the very highest majority possible, what would you do differently? Would a giveaway manifesto be more credible?

    The background to the conservative’s position is that it is weak. 7 years of government which has repeatedly failed to tackle the key problems with the economy and budget. What could they say?

  31. @ northernruralmodeoman

    NW Durham looks a bit out of reach for Cons. What is the profile on the Cons candidate?

    The Lab candidate isn’t from County Durham, but she isn’t from very far away – Northumberland Cllr.

  32. I think Labour will get about 28% of the vote-less then what the polls say but more then the worst case scenarios. It would be less if May was not to a point antagonising the pensioners who normally vote Tory. Perhaps she thinks they won’t vote for Corbyn even if she does policies they don’t like. UKIP have been eaten by the Conservatives and the Lib Dems are doing dreadfully.

  33. ALEC:

    “The sadness is that had Corbyn presented a half decent impression as Leader of the Opposition in parliament and for the last two years, I really do wonder just where Labour might be now.”

    ————————————————————————————

    Indeed. Though think how easier it would have been for him to do that if he had not had to spend two years fighting his own party!

    Imagine how things might have been, if – instead of tweating their resignation announcements while Corbyn was giving his victory speech – the fractious members of the PLP had said, “We don’t like this result but we’ll try to make it work.” What if he’d been able to put some big names on the front bench to show that the party was united after the leadership contest – Kendall in business, Cooper as home secretary? What if he’d been allowed to do what he is clearly quite good at – campaigning, being the visionary, talking to people and presenting a human face for Labour, instead of having to continually justify his position and fight his own party to retain it?

    Oh, what might have been!

  34. Be interesting to see how Labour + SNP play out over the whole country (I’m regarding Nicola’s 50 seats as de facto Labour seats as far as forming coalitions go), especially if Labour continue to nudge up AND that’s reflected on the big day!

  35. This debate is as dull as dishwater on a drizzly afternoon.

  36. At the moment the trend seems to be the Tories holding steady in the upper 40s with Labour gaining at the expense of both UKIP and the LibDems. If that continues we might well see an absolute decimation of the “other” vote. Even if all these votes go to Labour, that still isn’t enough. They have no hope without somehow winning over current Tory voters.

  37. Not going according to the prewritten narrative, Alex?

    Oh dear.

    Milliband was the perfect candidate according to you (and indeed I liked him) but what happened there?

    Could it be that Corbyn is going to do better than expected?

  38. Very interesting to see this narrowing. I’m thinking this will narrow furthe following the Tory Manifesto today as the big losers were the elderly who vote Tory normally. I don’t they’ll switch but we may see an increase in abstaining in that demo which will take a couple of points off CON VI. If it ends up at 43-34-8-6-3 that would push the CON maj down to 50ish. Still three weeks to go but this has definitely been a good one for Corbyn and Labour and with 3 to go the gap has dropped enough if the trend continues it could suddenly become competitive in the last 10 days….

  39. I agree with Lurgee – it’s the Blairite PLP that have made Labour unelectable

  40. Danny

    “seven years of government which has repeatedly failed to tackle the problems with the economy and budget”.

    Perhaps – I have lived through a lot of elections and I know of no opposition that has not accused the government of the day of messing up the economy. Going back to our exchange earlier on the perception of trust on the economy, it may just be a case that the Tories are perceived to be less useless in running it than Labour.

  41. So, question(s) – if Labour continue to improve and get around 35% of the vote on the day to the Tories getting around 45%, what do JC and the PLP do? Does he stand down? Stay? How do the PLP react?

    I imagine doing no worse or even slightly better then Miliband in spite of the PLP antics of the last two years would put some wind in JC’s sails.

  42. Alec,
    ” Just a modicum of organisation and management for the last two years could have seen him start five points ahead and possible end up running may relatively close with a good campaign.

    Haha, but of course doing better in polling than May could not possibly have won him an election now! Because in such a situation May would never have called an election! He had to be losing to stand any chance of winning.

    Dianne Abbott on ‘This Week’ before Corbyn became leader, ‘dont write him off just yet’

  43. I’ve been surprised at the continued salience of Brexit here in Redrich’s P(S)RL
    Quite a number of staunch Labourites talking of lending votes to the Tories ‘to make sure’ and quite a number of staunch Tories doing the opposite. Probably because of our local MP and the good ole 2 party system this is coming to Lab rather than LD: indeed quite a lot of LDs going tactical and no greens (but sadly no kippers either)

  44. ” I’m thinking this will narrow further following the Tory Manifesto today as the big losers were the elderly who vote Tory normally. I don’t they’ll switch but we may see an increase in abstaining in that demo”

    Maybe, but as AW oft reminds us, most people pay no attention to the manifestos. Who knows, the Tories may even get a small temporary boost simply from the fact that they dominated coverage today.

  45. what an awful debate, switched off.

  46. @RP

    I don’t have any evidence for this but I’m guessing the elderly demographic pay more attention than most as they tend to be more time rich but we have to wait till early next week to see any effect in the polls…

  47. Nuttall is truly awful. Good for Cons.

  48. Corbyn – the great white hope!. there are some people that seem to have convinced themselves that its the fault of Tony Blair or the press or heaven forbid Labour MPs. Get a grip the man is a distaster and he will lead Labour to heavy defeat. He and his socialist cronies have set back Labour for years. They will not even be a decent opposition.

    I do not agree with Sturgeon or Farron on many things but we do need an effective opposition. Corbyn it would be funny if it wasn’t so sad. Look at the polls and they tell you how the public view Corbyn.

  49. I think the pubic do not think Labour is ready to form a goverment.

    The problem for the Liberals and maybe the Tories is that they are coming around to the fact he could form a good opposition, which would stop the Tory extremism.

    The tory manifesto was a disaster for Pensioners in the south -east.

  50. @SSSimon

    My prediction for vote share is

    Cons 48%
    Lab 32%
    Lib Dem 7%
    UKIP 3%
    SNP 4.5%
    Green 1.7%
    Others 2.8%

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