Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today, with topline figures of CON 49%(nc), LAB 34%(+8), LDEM 7%(-6), UKIP 2%(-2). Changes are since their April poll, conducted just after Theresa May has called the general election. Fieldwork was Monday to Wednesday and tabs are here.

In this morning’s Times we also had voting intention figures from YouGov, which showed topline voting intention figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 6%(+3). Changes are from the YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend. Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and tabs are here.

We’re continuing too see a narrowing of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives – though given the head start the Tories began the campaign with that still leaves them a very long way ahead. Far from gaining during the campaign, the Liberal Democrats appear to be fading away. UKIP are being squeezed away completely (not long ago the six point figures from YouGov would have been absolutely awful for them, now it’s one of their better figures from recent polls).

Part of Labour’s recent gain may well because the fieldwork in most recent polls was conducted in the context of Labour releasing lots of broadly popular policies and hence getting lots of comparatively positive coverage. The next round of polls though will have been largely conducted when the media was busy giving lots of coverage to the Conservative party’s policies and promises. These were not as obviously crowd-pleasing as Labour’s offering, but I guess we’ll get a better idea of how they’ve been received and if there is any significant impact in the weekend polls.

Looking at the rest of the MORI and YouGov polls, YouGov asked some questions on whether people thought taxes would rise if Labour or the Conservatives won. I expect very few will be surprised to find that far more people expect taxes for the rich to rise if Labour win than if the Conservatives win. More interesting is that expectations of tax levels for “people like you” are very similar for Labour and Conservative – if Labour win, 47% expect their taxes to go up, if the Conservatives win, 46% expect their taxes to go up. Labour aren’t seen as necessarily meaning ordinary people would pay more tax, people expect their taxes to rise whoever wins.

MORI asked a question about whether Labour were ready to form a government (30% think they are, 60% think they aren’t) and whether Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be PM (31% think he is, 60% think he isn’t). Both questions were also asked about Labour under Ed Miliband in 2015 – figures on the party being ready for government are similar (33% thought Labour were ready in 2015, 30% do now), on the leadership question Jeremy Corbyn actually scores substantially better (31% think he is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband).


432 Responses to “Latest YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls”

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  1. Woman caller to Iain Dale’s radio programme said that she received her postal vote as Theresa May was making her manifesto speech. The caller said that after hearing the manifesto proposals, she would not vote Conservative as she had intended…. but her vote for Labour was signed and sealed, waiting for the post.

    Btw there are a lot of Conservative attack ads on Facebook which seem to targeted to particular individuals… so rather below the radar.

  2. When are we due our first polls post Tory manifesto?

  3. What I think we are seeing in the current campaign is an alignment of interests between Cons and Lab to marginalise all the other players to the greatest extent possible. The no-show of TM and JC at the “leaders” debate fits this strategy of clear separation between Cons/Lab and the rest. I think JC / Lab made the right tactical choice as (outside of Scotland) it helps squeeze the LoC vote in their direction.

    Without the profile raising effect of sharing a platform with the PM, the Greens especially, but also Lib Dem and UKIP look like minnows. Green VI is well down on 2015 and a big part of the explanation has to be lack of airtime. There are other reasons for UKIP and Lib Dem VI but lack airtime is an added drag downwards.

    Given that Cons had control of timing it is interesting to speculate whether this was part of their game plan from the start. Private polling / focus group work could have been giving strong hints that a UKIP vote collapse was on the cards, and would flow their way. Add to this a desire to nip in the bud any opportunity for Lib Dem building momentum from by-elections and Locals (without the GE being declared we might have seen a very different outcome in the Locals). TM/Crosby might well have calculated that there was a window of opportunity to mop up UKIP vote and consolidate the RoC vote, while with a weak and damaged LibDem also have a shot at grabbing some of the middle ground and reset Cons away from the Cameron era.

    Running the early part of the Cons campaign so that Lab get lots of air time with Cons keeping a low profile lets’ Lab squeeze the LoC vote without much risk to the Cons VI. It is in Lab’s interest to squeeze the LoC vote so this is a genuine alignment of interests. That takes us to where we are now, with Cons + Lab VI combined share around 80% (vs 67% at the 2015 GE).

    Having established a TM vs JC narrative, the obvious final phase of the Cons campaign would be to trade in the TM leadership premium and really put the boot in to JC during the closing phases.

    Far from a risk free strategy, but starting out with a healthy lead, and with a big long term prize to play for, it just might be the Cons plan. Crosby/Cameron ran a very effective strategy last time with a much weaker hand. What will Crosby/May be able to do with the hand they have?

  4. Exile in Yorks

    Excellent analysis.

  5. Bardin1 “Who would have predicted Corbyn polling better than Milliband achieved,”

    That has not yet happened!

    Milliband was regularly polling 33%-36% with some 37%s in the last month of the campaign. The Tories were polling around the same.

    Corbyn is still behind Milliband. And this time the Tories are polling ~15 points better!

  6. @ExileInYorks

    I agree with you. It’s nailed on that the Tories are going to mercilessly batter Corbyn in the home straight on his past and suitability to lead the country. Crosby is hardly the touchy-feely type who will pull any punches, that’s for sure!

  7. @sea change

    Sorry if it was ambiguous I meant polling better than Milliband ‘achieved’ to be a comparison with the GE result not polls at the same stage. I realise Corbyn may not actually achieve the same result

  8. @Exileinyorks – I agree with Woody – an excellent and insightful post

  9. The new Tory social care policy caused me immediate and instinctive consternation, but as I mulled it over I began to see it more of a Curate’s Egg. The electorate tends to be more influenced by those initial gut reactions (perhaps because in terms of party politics, the average person doesn’t do very much “mulling it over”) so perhaps it will cause a dent. So far they seemed to have avoided a Pasty Tax moment.

    In overall terms, it seem that the Tories are intent on prioritizing their room for flexibility in governing over the effort to maximize seats. I for one wouldn’t have been particularly happy with a total landslide. Terrible news for democracy. So I’d rather see a more circumspect party put forward cautious and coldly-received policies and get a 50-60 majority than promise the Earth and get into 1983 territory.

    I think a lot of this is to do with Brexit. There isn’t a huge difference between 60 seats and 120 seat majority in terms of getting the deal through parliament. I think the Tory strategy is to make the prospect of walking away from a bad deal look at least plausible. That involves keeping a tight rein on public spending, so that there is space in the budget to turn on the taps in the event of a drop in GDP from a failure of the talks. I don’t think in a million years the government actually wants that to happen, but I think they believe that if the EU believes that the UK is serious about the option of walking away, it will make compromise in the talks easier to achieve.

    And if all goes well, with a 3 year transitional deal followed by a smooth exit from the Single Market to a trade deal at the end of 2021? The money saved for a rainy day can be spent on sunshine instead, for a nice bonus in the 2022 election.

    Whatever the Tory strategy is, I think credit is due to both Corbyn and his party. Corbyn for making a decent fist of his public appearances so far and coming across as well-meaning and passionate. The party for by and large maintaining its discipline in (sort of) support of a leader that most Labour MPs openly believe would be a terrible PM. I suspect that it’s a bit of a false dawn, and I take the point that Labour’s position has only switched from calamitous to very, very bad. But credit where credit is due, Corbyn has exceeded expectations to date.

    As a long time exponent of the much derided “swingback theory”, I wonder if the secret of swingback isn’t so much about support returning to governing parties in the run up to an election, but more about a general reversion to the mean. In the unreal conditions of mid-term elections and opinion polls, VI can drift to quite unrealistic extremes. When actual meaningful elections approach, perhaps this always unwinds a bit, explaining the increase in Labour’s share from the mid-high 20s to the solid 30s.

  10. The different policy in Scotland for Winter Fuel Allowance will not help quell English discontent-particularly as it seems the the Devolved Power for this hasn’t yet been Legislated !

  11. @ Colin

    Now is the winter of our discontent… ?

  12. Neil A – I have said that swingback would work for Labour this time, only narrowing the size of victory of course.

    The hit Corbyn hard and late (so rugby rather than Football) misses he postal vote factor.

    In my seat this is 20% or so of the Electorate and they are voting in the next week or so – some already it seems and late Corby bask will miss these voters.

    Sue recounted a caller to Iain Dale switching which may or may not be true but anecdotally the care proposals is affecting determination to vote and therefore potentially differential turnout.
    Ambivalent Labour support may have firmed up especially tactical ABTs whilst soft Tory vote, especially some of those thus far planning to prioritise Brexit over their usual Domestic preferences may be affected.

    I have clutched at a very frayed straw and can see a slight possibility of the lead being only 10-12% although 15% still more likely imo.

  13. Great analysis by Exile in Yorks and Neil A.

    Colin, that exception in the heating allowance for Scotland seems unfair. Are they seriously saying that it costs hundreds of pounds more to heat a home in southern Scotland than in Northumbria?

  14. EXILEINYORKS

    ……….Made glorious summer by this daughter of Eastbourne.
    And all the clouds that lour’d upon our house
    In the deep bosom of the Corbyn buried.

  15. ExileinYorks

    Yes, I agree with the main thrust, and most of the details. I don’t think everything went by the script (or will), but the intention was there.

  16. WB………Yours at 4-15pm…’Times they are a-changin’. Ironic then, that the generation he represented have just voted Trump into the White House. ;-)

  17. @ Colin

    :-))

  18. Any new polls tonight?

    Very much expecting further closing between Lab/Con, it will be in the final two or three days that the gap will open up again, all imo of course.

  19. @ Neil A:

    I think there is a difference between 60 and 120.

    I think the number of potential Tory Surrender Monkeys was somewhere between thirty and fifty. Adding the Unionists and Labour Leavers, 120 is rock solid.

    Sadly also solid for some attempt at re-igniting Syria.

  20. @dez

    “The conservatives now have a different policy for winter fuel allowance in Scotland and England .”

    And may be in breach of electoral law as a result as it seems that WFP has not been devolved yet and won’t be at least until 2019.

    Of course for devolved matters, surely it is up to the electorates in the four countries of the UK to elect the parties and policies which they want. If that produces differences, so be it.

  21. “Milliband was regularly polling 33%-36% with some 37%s in the last month of the campaign. The Tories were polling around the same. Corbyn is still behind Milliband.”

    I took the comment about Miliband being behind Corbyn to be a reference to the poll AW indicates in the post – showing that “31% think [Corbyn] is ready to be PM, only 21% thought the same about Miliband”.

    On the polling figures, you can’t compare the current ones with 2015. The fact that the methodologies have all been changed so much means that any such comparison is mathematical nonsense.

    But then again, I am also extremely wary of comparing Labour’s polling now with the actual GE 2015 result – it just seems premature since it’s far too early to say whether Labour’s result will match their polling.

  22. @ExileInYorks

    YEP!

  23. Rudyard

    Keep believing, at least until the weekend polls.

    Anecdotally, I met the local Tory candidate tonight and the Tories are quietly confident that TM will still be PM after the election.

    They will stress Brexit for the next 2 weeks and attack Corbyn as a weak leader with dodgy friends.

    Crosby is a very clever man and Corbyn just does not cut the mustard ( at least in Norfolk).

    Waiting for the weekend polls.

  24. OK Crosby fans what’s his play this next week?

  25. NRMM

    If the polls stay the same it sit on hands time. Last few days its just remind voters who they want to negotiate Brexit . In the end it comes down to May or Corbyn as a competent leader for Brexit and the next 5 years.

  26. Sea Change – “It’s nailed on that the Tories are going to mercilessly batter Corbyn in the home straight on his past and suitability to lead the country.”

    I’m not sure they’re going to go down that route. They’ve already done what they needed to, re Corbyn, in the past few years.

    I think it was @Dez who said a while back that the Conservatives were running a khaki election. Well, in khaki elections, the enemy is not the opposition (the opposition is merely a naive/foolish version of “one of us”). The enemy is external – Brussels, Juncker, Merkel, the EU.

    We saw this early in the campaign – the only people Mrs May has attacked directly are the EU.

  27. @DEZ – The conservatives now have a different policy for winter fuel allowance in Scotland and England .They are as pragmatic as ever for power.However is there any polls that resentment is starting to grow in how citizens are treated differently in both countries .

    No they do not. The Scottish policy is as formulated by the devolved government in Holyrood – nothing to do with Westminster.

    Likewise May’s announcements regarding school meals – only applicable to England. The devolved governments decide anything to do with education in their areas. health is another. Westminster only has any say over NHS England.

  28. @Andy Williams

    Winter Fuel Payment has not been devolved yet.

  29. Hireton
    I’d forgotten about that scheme. I note that the subsidy goes to the fuel retailers, rather than directly to rural residents.

    I’d have thought the Tory argument would be that if you were cold in Scotland you ought to get on your bike and head south to warmer climes (pedalling hard to warm up, of course). Similarly that if you choose to live in a rural area and enjoy the benefits you should be prepared to pay for and put up with the inconveniences.

    If the Tories are happy to redistribute on the basis of geography why are they not willing to redistribute on the basis of health? More personal choice involved in where you live than whether you become frail.

    It’s a topsy-turvy world.

    Of course if they were serious about helping people in colder parts of the UK they’d use a temperature-based criterion. No winter fuel allowance for wealthy Scots in urban hot spots or mild coastal areas, but well-to-do English people perched up in the Pennines might qualify. Or – as per the fuel scheme – they’d subsidise insulation in chilly postcodes.

  30. @HIRETON Winter Fuel Payment has not been devolved yet.

    When it was negotiated to be devolved it has to be devolved ‘as is’ – not how it becomes. What Scotland and London agreed to be devolved is what has to be devolved and it can’t be changed in Scotland until it is.

  31. New thread

  32. @Candy / Allan

    The premise of 18 year olds effecting ‘no change’ is false. The baby boomer population bulge will not be repeated, and the younger generations are eating more healthily, smoking less and so on.

    Basing your argument on ‘all poor being Yes voters = All Yes voters are poor’ is false too. I know of two over 65s (in 2014 that have died since, and both were No voters. The Yes-voting pensioners I know of are ticking along.

    Most ‘Yes’ folk I have talked to come into two simple categories.

    1. They simply think that Scotland should be indy. Always have done. It’s part of their psyche. They look at the logic of 197 other indy nations, and work it out for themselves (whether you or I agree or disagree on said logic don’t matter – it can apply to unionist for different reasons).

    2. At some point in their life, a government has come along and rubbed them up the wrong way. Whether they lost their job in the 80s (or later), found that their beloved party betrayed them, or just disagreed with a single point (e.g. Iraq War, Poll Tax, Pension raided, or Miner strikes), they have become politically activated, or did so once the referendum arose.

    For them it’s about taking away the chance of history repeating itself on their kids, grandkids or other in their circle. All it takes is for a government to annoy a person enough once (and their family, friends, neighbours), and they’re off to vote Yes, and it will be very, very hard to get their vote back.

    Whether this translates to a Yes vote will become obvious in the next 2-10 years.

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