There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


615 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

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  1. @Trevor

    Thanks for the link. I might have a go at the 3-1 60-65% turnout.

    Does anyone know if the pollsters make any predictions about turnout, or can it be worked out from their tables?

  2. @WB

    Depends upon what one’s assumption is for whether the EU27 would be prepared to accept “mea culpa”. My assumption would be that the EU27 would accept whatever necessary change to accept us back.

    Then one would have to consider which party gives more certainty about leaving…

    LDem… well it seems to me they would want to negotiate the worst possible deal so its obvious only good deal is staying in. Not sure how anyone can see the logic of their position of giving a choice of staying in versus something else they deliberately ensure is awful.

    Labour… won’t accept a no deal. Then if no negotiated acceptable position then where are we. No deal which they wouldn’t accept so whatever terms EU27 prepared to offer….

    plus many other variants when popular belief is not to trust politicians.

  3. @Trevor Warne

    Combination of reasons:
    1/ Certainty of outcome (see drop from 1997 to 2001 GEs)
    2/ Cognitive dissonance factors (e.g would vote LAB but not keen on Corbyn as leader, would vote CON but not keen on Hard Brexit)
    3/ Brexit is “settled” (ie not expecting a large protest vote – evidence low LD polling)
    4/ 1/3 of UKIP candidates pulled, a few Greens as well (1% drop there)
    5/ Voter fatigue

    I tend to agree with the view that turnout will be low. I can envisage a scenario in which Labour get fewer votes than in 2015 but a higher or equivalent % share. Still sticking with my original Lab 25% Tory 42% prediction as most likely outcome not because I think the polls are wrong, I think they probably reflect the views of those who have already decided. Currently there appears to be a significant percentage of the population that are considering going against their traditional voting loyalties – the extent to which they either switch, abstain or stay loyal will determine the final outcome.

  4. @ WB . well I personally agree with you but I would suggest that the majority of those who state this kind of comment have little interest in such nuance and tend to view it in more black and white terms as in may says she will deliver it whatever it is whilst there appears to be a deep seated suspicion of labours motives amongst this group that they don’t really want to go thru with it .

  5. WB,
    “Article 50 might or might not be revocable, but it is certainly not revocable by us without agreement from the 27. I could only see such agreement if we were to accept the Euro and greater expansion of centralised executive control”

    There is a wide range of possibilities for Brexit from huge success to total disaster, and not enough real information now to tell how it will go. At the negative end, there is certainly the possibility of the Uk being desperate enough to rejoin on just about any terms. But in that case, any plans and promises by politicians now are irrelevant. There is still a lot to play for, but neither labour nor con is going to cancel Brexit against the wishes of Uk voters. the issue at the moment is an attempt by leave supporters to ‘lock in’ brexit, even if the nation clearly changes its mind. I don’t think it is possible to do that either, whoever anyone votes for this time.

    The likely consequence of this election is to determine whether new arrangements will be made in a conservative model or a labour model, and we have just seen a pair of manifestos illustrative of the future.

    The conservatives have taken this opportunity, where they see the pensioner vote as ‘locked in’, and a whopping lead such that they can afford to lose half of it, to ditch certain policies now. Their manifesto sets out a framework for all elderly care, currently social but also NHS, to be unified and placed on a footing of user pays after death. This will cut the bill to taxpayers, and in effect is an unravelling of part of the welfare state.

    Although it sounds generous, in allowing people to keep £100,000, given the value of a family home this is not much. Given that many currently will get to keep the value of their homes to pass on to children, this is a big hike in taxation.

    The manifesto also attacks the winter fuel payments, which I assume will be abolished in due course, limits future pension rises and opens the door for other general tax increases.

    This is a manifesto for a party expecting a recession, which has sufficient voter support it doesnt care about negative impact.

  6. Rudyard

    [snip]

    It will be interesting to test the theory as to whether the manifestos change voting intentions.

    If you are right we are about to experience an astounding result.

    If TM does not get her hand strengthened what then for Brexit. Perhaps we get Blaire and Cameron to tell us.

  7. @Danny

    I agree with you and it is a better explanation for the volte face on calling an election than ‘a bigger majority for Brexit’. It is interesting how open a lot of the language is and how little real information is in there . It will provide a lot of flexibility, for good or for bad. Let’s hope May’s health is good for 5 years to see it all through as it does seem something of a ‘blank cheque’ which I wouldn’t like to see some of the other cabinet members in charge of

  8. Hi WB

    On the Jeremy Vine show today JC was ased specifically ” you don’t get a deal that means that you will not take out of the EU…” or something similar. The answer he gave completely avoided the question. Ally that to the non-specific answers given to the BBC’s LK on “will you take us out of the EU” and it is very possible that if Labour win they will use the inability to get a deal either to reintroduce freedom of movement or to announce that we have to keep trying so we are staying in.

  9. Danny re ”This is a manifesto for a party expecting a recession, which has sufficient voter support it doesnt care about negative impact.”

    That was my view when the GE was called they expect a tough 2-3 years and would have been entering the 2020 GE after a difficult period, they calculate that by 2022 (or 2021 as they can circumvent FTPA) they will be able to engineer the old pre-Election boom, even if not a big one.

  10. ‘All to play for’

    Wasn’t that Diane Abbott’s sound bite in the run up to the last election?

    I just don’t buy it. Political gravity does not usually (or ever) go into reverse, and on leadership, best PM, economy, Brexit, May/The Tories are well ahead of Corbyn.

    Mid 30s is startling for Labour, but I can’t help but think there is going to be a severe crash landing for those who think Corbyn actually has a chance.

  11. @Jonn

    My post was about the choices that families will face over care provision as well as the effect of the proposed changes. My father suffered a severe heart attack while on holiday with me, at my home. After that, it was obvious he needed care. He sold his house and stayed with me. The proceeds of the house sale in NI would, in today’s terms have been around £160,000. He had over the £100,000 in assets.

    I had some care support for which I did not pay. That was unusual. I chose to pay for my father’s care by my time, effort and money. There are a lot of difficult choices to be made within families about the provision of care. This manifesto promise adds another factor to consider and vastly increases the numbers of families making it.

  12. Here’s a question ;

    Let’s say the Tories get another 150 MP’s, how do they fit them in on an already packed side of the house ? Do they just have to stand, or can they sit on the opposition empty benches ?

  13. @Blue Bob

    What have you got against Librarians?
    What a cheek! You can guess my recent profession, now.
    I’m glad you’ve got a £100k fuel bill now.
    (I think Corbyn is more like a Sociology lecturer at a 70s polytechnic – Not that I want to categorise them, in turn).

  14. I really can’t see a large enough proportion of the population sitting down to calculate (or even understand) the potential impact of the Tories social care idea and then deciding that it will hurt them so badly that it is a game changer and will override every other issue (Brexit, Corbyn, leadership, economy) and decide that they have to switch from Tory to Labour.

  15. From Britainelects

    Satisfaction / Dissatisfaction with…

    T. May: 55 / 35
    J. Corbyn: 31 / 58
    T. Farron: 28 / 39
    P. Nuttall: 17 / 54

    (via @IpsosMORI)

  16. I’ve punched the new YG poll into my regional spreadsheet, and this comes up:

    Con – 374
    Lab – 198
    SNP – 48
    Lib Dem – 6
    PC – 4
    Grn – 1

    Con Majority – 98

    Labour had pretty much an across the board up tick.

    Seats to change hands

    London

    Ealing Central & Acton – Lab to Con
    Brentford & Isleworth – Lab to Con
    Ilford North – Lab to Con
    Hampstead & Kilburn – Lab to Con
    Enfield North – Lab to Con
    Carshalton & Wallington – Lib Dem to Con
    Eltham – Lab to Con

    Rest of the South

    Clacton – Move from UKIP to Con
    Norfolk North – Move from Lib Dem to Con

    Midlands/Wales

    Ynys Mon – Lab move to PC
    Newcastle-Under-Lyme – Lab move to Con
    Wolverhampton South West – Lab move to Con
    Derbyshire North East – Lab move to Con
    Bridgend – Lab move to Con
    Walsall North – Lab move to Con
    Wrexham – Lab move to Con
    Birmingham Northfield – Lab move to Con
    Gedling – Lab move to Con
    Stoke-On-Trent South – Lab move to Con
    Birmingham Edgbaston – Lab move to Con
    Clwyd South – Lab move to Con
    Coventry South – Lab move to Con
    Delyn – Lab move to Con
    Alyn & Deeside – Lab move to Con
    Stoke-On-Trent North – Lab move to Con

    The North

    Chester, City Of – Lab to Con
    Halifax – Lab to Con
    Wirral West – Lab to Con
    Barrow & Furness – Lab to Con
    Dewsbury – Lab to Con
    Southport – Lib Dem to Con
    Lancaster & Fleetwood – Lab to Con
    Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East – Lab to Con
    Wakefield – Lab to Con
    Copeland – Lab to Con
    Darlington – Lab to Con
    Blackpool South – Lab to Con
    Scunthorpe – Lab to Con

    Scotland

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk – SNP to Con
    Dunbartonshire East – SNP to Lib Dem
    Renfrewshire East – SNP to Con
    Dumfries & Galloway – SNP to Con
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine – SNP to Con
    Aberdeen South – SNP to Con
    Perth & Perthshire North – SNP to Con
    Moray – SNP to Con

  17. I’ve punched the new YG poll into my regional spreadsheet, and this comes up:

    Con – 374
    Lab – 198
    SNP – 48
    Lib Dem – 6
    PC – 4
    Grn – 1

    Con Majority – 98

    Labour had pretty much an across the board up tick.

  18. Haha JMCC

    I love Librarians, just not with nuclear launch codes :)

  19. “Wasn’t that Diane Abbott’s sound bite in the run up to the last election?”

    ——–

    I don’t think peeps are shoehorning Abbot’s name into any discussion possible anywhere near enough.

    And what about Boris…

  20. Having largely concerned myself with where the votes are going in Scotland over the last few days, I have had little time to comment on this venerable site but have instead read with interest the views of others.

    As a Tory canvasser it might surprise you to hear that the increasing Labour VI is actually of some satisfaction to me. A scenario that I would love to see happen is becoming increasingly likely (if still not particularly so). It is as follows:

    The Tory’s south of the border increase their number of seats by 5-10. The result in Scotland reflects my current prediction (SNP 39%, Con 29%, Lab 19%, LD 6%). The Tories then gain 12 seats along with the LDs gaining 2 and Labour holding 1. The Tories can then claim that ‘Scotland’s voice was heard’ and that it effectively increased the government’s majority by 20 seats. It would only give TM a majority of around 40-60 seats but it would fairly put some of my SNP colleagues’ gas at a peep.

    (Un)fortunately my prediction remains that Labour will not exceed 180 seats in the next parliament and the Conservative majority will be in excess of 120 regardless of what happens in Scotland.

  21. @Reginald

    I get these seat changes for Scotland:

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk – SNP to Con
    Dunbartonshire East – SNP to Lib Dem
    Renfrewshire East – SNP to Con
    Dumfries & Galloway – SNP to Con
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine – SNP to Con
    Aberdeen South – SNP to Con
    Perth & Perthshire North – SNP to Con
    Moray – SNP to Con

  22. Bardin1,
    ” it does seem something of a ‘blank cheque’ which I wouldn’t like to see some of the other cabinet members in charge of”

    May is a figurehead, as replaceable as Cameron. Or one might say, a scapegoat. She is not dictating this policy, she is presenting it on behalf of that cabinet and those members who concern you.

  23. “I really can’t see a large enough proportion of the population sitting down to calculate (or even understand) the potential impact”

    ———

    Well maybe they have tested this. Prolly run it by peeps and given them a calculator and measured how many do actually figure it out.

    Which yeah, may not be many. 25% of the population can’t do percentages apparently. I know this is hard to believe but there are people who actually think the debt has been coming down since the demise of Labour.

    I wouldn’t even trust some of the politicians to get it right.

    However, a meme like “you might lose your house!!” could bypass the calculations.

    Maybe the press will go “your home may end up being sold off and housing IMMIGRANTS!!” which obviously would be very powerful.

  24. @ REDRICH – the polls have a “loyalty” section in the crossbreaks (VI versus 2015 vote). Taking the most recent YouGov one you can see “loyalty”:

    CON 90%
    LAB 75%
    LD 50%
    UKIP 40%

    You can also see where the “dis-loyal” are going (e.g. 80% of UKIP have gone to CON, LD switchers are now 60/40 LAB/CON from 40/60 a while ago).

    In previous elections CON and LAB have usually had 85%ish “loyalty”, so CON a bit higher, LAB a bit lower but not much. The YouGov polls also have a section on “would you change your mind”, again CON VIs seem very sure, LAB VIs fairly sure.

    Of course being loyal when asked in a poll is different to actually getting out to vote and (assuming you do) then deciding which box to put a X in but seems like most voters for CON and LAB are staying loyal. DKs for 2015 CON voters quite low as well so most have made their mind up and sticking with CON. LAB a little behind. LD in all kinds of trouble. UKIP – job done, move on.

    @ STEVEN WHEELER – I don’t think anyone makes turnout predictions – if you see one please post it. You can’t get any useful turnout info from polls. The whole Likelihood To Vote (LTV) section makes social psychologists shudder – asking someone who they would vote for and then if they intend to vote!?!? If you based turnout on that then every election would have 85%+ turnout. Motivation To Vote (MTV) is different but no Econometrics graduate is ever going to publish anything that relies on something they can’t directly measure.

  25. jim jam,
    ” they calculate that by 2022 (or 2021 as they can circumvent FTPA) they will be able to engineer the old pre-Election boom, even if not a big one.

    2022 may not be long enough, but short of a state of national emergency and suspending elections, its all you can get.

    bernard,
    ” on leadership, best PM, economy, Brexit, May/The Tories are well ahead of Corbyn”

    This does not matter, and never has. What you need is the right critical policy for the right subset of the voters. Conservatives will be doing well to motivate 1/3 of voters to turn out and vote for them. Of the remaining 2/3 you only need to convince just over half. Not saying it can be done now, but parties do not even try to get a majority of voters on board.

  26. @ CMJ – betfair has Edinburgh West as high probability of going SNP to SLIB. I discussed it at length with BARDIN and some others a few days back. Lots of seat specific issues.

    Next set of Scottish polls maybe we can get back into it. 2015 looked like it had a lot of tactical Union vote (following on so soon after IndyRef1). Although that failed in most cases the SLIB-SCON grassroots tactical voting looks less likely this time. IndyRef2 looks like along way off and LIB and CON have very different views on Brexit. SCON for sure probably less inclined to vote SLIB even if it means SNP hold a seat. Most of the SCON gains you have will probably happen without SLIB support but less so the other way round.

  27. JOSEPH1832
    “The only thing a country certainly gets out of immigration is increased consumption.”

    I think you’ll find that the only thing a country gets out of (net) immigration is larger numbers of young people, 40% of whom are over-qualified for the jobs they initially take, so move on contribute to skills needs throughout industry. MigrationObservatory:
    http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/characteristics-and-outcomes-migrants-uk-labour-market
    UK Commission for Employment and Skills – Working Futures:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/513801/Working_Futures_final_evidence_report.pdf

  28. Now that the UK apparently has full employment, perhaps the discussion around welfare benefits will shift? I haven’t seen any real mention of benefits policy so far in this election, apart from perhaps the “[email protected] clause” debate in Scotland (which so noticeably didn’t get a mention in the rest of the UK).

  29. @Danny
    “they see the pensioner vote as ‘locked in’” I wouldn’t bank on that. Pensioners can be an awkward crowd, experienced and with time to campaign.

    “a whopping lead” which makes other manifestos irrelevant.”
    “allowing people to keep £100,000, given the value of a family home this is not much. Given that many currently will get to keep the value of their homes to pass on to children… ”
    £100,000 is more than £23,000. You lose money from your estate if you have incurred social care costs. If not, not. That is not a tax, but a deferred payment.
    If NHS and social care become integrated, at what point does one begin to make deferred payments for health care? though it might even give some incentive to look after your health.
    @Woody “a game changer and will override every other issue ” not this time, but in 5 years time (when it is clearer how it will work, and if it has been introduced unchanged) it will form part of a huge demand for drastic revision of the tax system “now that we have control over our own laws”

  30. @Catmanjeff

    I get the same plus East Lothian, Edinburgh South West, North East Fife, Stirling, and Ochil and South Perthshire.

    I also get the Lib Dems getting Edinburgh West.

    I wouldn’t normally have had Ochil and South Perthshire in there but with Sheikh sitting under a cloud of potential bankruptcy and strong performances in the councils within the constituency for the Tories, I have gone with it as my 12th.

  31. Rudyard

    [snip]

    Two polls tonight both Labour defence – Enfield looks solid – Stockton on Tees not sure which constituency it is in but could be interesting.

  32. @Trevor Warne
    ” every election would have 85%+ turnout.” [based on polling tables.
    The crucial questions are
    1. Will turnout be 70%, or 60%? (ish)
    2. Which voters represented by part of the poll samples will not vote?

    My theory that people vote against what they don’t want, rather than for what they do want, may take a bashing if they don’t vote at all, instead of voting UKIP, though I have seen several suggestions that people should write in UKIP if there is no UKIP candidate, not so much an expression of support, as to register ‘a plague on all your houses’ rather than apathy.

  33. “I think you’ll find that the only thing a country gets out of (net) immigration is larger numbers of young people, 40% of whom are over-qualified for the jobs they initially take, so move on contribute to skills needs throughout industry”

    While brain draining the country they have come from.

    Are you happy taking doctors from countries where they have endemic malaria and rickets?

    Because you’ll need the other half of the foreign population to look after the first half you stole.

  34. Just wondering whether Corbyn should give Trump a call and quietly explain to him what a proper monstering feels like.

  35. The two manifestos were published for different reasons. The Labour party to some extent was to dog whistle, to show the different between rich and poor.

    The Tories was to take advantage opt a week Labour party and to bring policies, that they would normally not get away I.E

  36. Danny

    “bernard,
    ” on leadership, best PM, economy, Brexit, May/The Tories are well ahead of Corbyn”
    This does not matter, and never has.”

    I think you will find that no modern election has been won by a leader and party that are well behind on both leadershi and running the economy.

  37. dave,
    ” That is not a tax, but a deferred payment.”

    You might then say that all inheritance taxes are deferred payment for government services provided during a lifetime. You might say that income tax is nothing but a payment for the healthcare I get now. It just has a quirky scale based more upon my wealth than what I get. Why should a doctor not charge according to what he knows his patients can afford rather than a fixed scale? Has been known. Even makes economic sense as a business model.

    It is a tax.

  38. I was thinking about comments being made that TM cannot realistically get more than Blair did in ’97. It seems reasonable to make that assumption. But I think the collapse of the Lib Dems (and UKIP) offers, for the first time since the early ’70s really, the opportunity for the Tories to go significantly above the low-40s and maybe even hit 50%.

  39. CATMANJEFF

    Many thanks for running those figures past us. Very interesting. I’m sticking by my forcast of 110 majority for the time being as I do not see any reason to change it on what i have seen so far.

  40. The Other Howard,
    “I think you will find that no modern election has been won by a leader and party that are well behind on both leadershi and running the economy.”

    That it hasnt been done, does not mean it cannot be done. Think Trump. Didnt he have about 70% of the nation thinking he was unfit to be president? Did they think he was ahead on the economy? I didn’t notice the stats on this at the time, but all in all I suspect the same people thought he was useless at economics as well.

    We live in an age where it is likely more people will boycot this election than vote for the winner.

  41. TOH,
    Maybe i should add that this is a rather unusual election. May will win not because she is popular or Corbyn is not, but because she is seen as the most likely to deliver Brexit.

    The conservatives have just delivered a quite unfriendly manifesto for some of their key support groups, but they don’t care because they have one single winning policy.

    The question remaining is whether thay have calculated correctly that this one policy is sufficient to guarantee sufficient success for their purposes. (probably) It is quite unusual for a party to dare to produce such a luke warm giveaway in its manifesto, which implies they too think the whole situation is unusual.

  42. Would be something if Stockton North was swinging to the Cons, would mean Hartlepool, Sedgefield and Bishop Auckland could go as well if regions have their own micro-swings
    A smaller than UNS swing might mean Labour have a chance of holding Darlington.

    Boro south and Cleveland east has gone whatever….imo

  43. Dave,
    “If NHS and social care become integrated, at what point does one begin to make deferred payments for health care?”

    One could imagine a situation where everyone has an account with the NHS which logs all your lifetime costs. And then bills this to your estate. But you are guaranteed at least £100,000.

    Give it a few years of high inflation and most people would be left with nothing. Quite a revolution.

  44. Danny

    I notice you do not deny that I am correct in my statement that “no modern election has been won by a leader and party that are well behind on both leadership and running the economy.”

    In a normal election those two factors are the main drivers. In this election I agree there is a third “who is best to deliver Brexit”

    May and the Conservatives have substantial leads in all three factors hence my confidence in a 100+ majority.

    Your other point:

    ” It is quite unusual for a party to dare to produce such a luke warm giveaway in its manifesto”

    Alternatively some would argue that a realistic manifesto is very much in line with May’s character to present issues as they really are and what is required to deal with them.

  45. @Carfrew

    I’ve noted your comments on liberals having taking over the Labour Party prior to Corbyn. Now I’m not entirely sure if you mean it in a tongue in cheek manner. Personally I would’t categorise Blair/Brown/Miliband or any of the other senior Labour figures as liberals. They may have to varying degrees accepted orthodox liberal economics but on social issues Labour was not liberal – in fact Labour Home Secretaries followed policies aimed primarily to appeal to conservative with a small c trad wc Labour voters and appease the Daily Mail.

    In terms of govt spending, education, redistribution etc they followed policies more in line with Social Democratic principles, and self-identified as Social Democrats or Socialists.

    Ultimately the issue that emerged that they failed to deal with was the consequences of adopting a ‘liberal’ line was on immigration. Egalitarian views mixed with perceived benefits to business and views that any anti-immigration argument were inherently right-wing and racist prevented the party from responding effectively to an issue that was becoming increasingly important to a significant portion of its base.

  46. Danny

    Of course you are perfectly right in suggesting that this election is different and that it might be the exception that proves the rule where a party behind on trust on the economy and leadership comes through and wins ie placing reliance on the old ‘death and taxes’ quotation. But all elections are unique in one way or another and I actually thought it might happen in 2015. What I couldn’t understand was that the polls were showing Labour or Conservative leads and dead heats almost on the same day, and Labour looked as if it might become the largest party at least – but the leadership and economy polls stayed steadfastly in favour of the Tories. So, like you I thought this might be the exception. But as we all now know, this was simply not the pollsters’ finest hour.

    The problem for Labour this time is that the Tory voting intention is solid at mid to upper forties and the leadership and economy polls show clear Tory leads. But as you say, there is still time………….

  47. @ JimJam

    In 2015, Stockton North was a comfortable win for Lab (49%) over Cons (28%) with UKIP (19%) in third.

    The collapse in UKIP in favour of Cons just about turns this into a marginal, but the question that has to be asked in a seat like this with a strong Lab tradition is whether the UKIP migrate to Cons in the same proportions as the national trends. Cons need all the UKIP vote or a bit of direct swing from Lab.

    Sedgefield is a very similar story with the 2015 Lab (47%), Cons (30%), UKIP (17%).

    I can’t see Lab holding Hartlepool. There was a huge UKIP vote (30%), and Cons were still only 16% behind Lab. Cons only need slightly over half the UKIP vote to take this seat. In Bishop Aukland Cons were only 9% behind Lab with 18% UKIP to work with.

    My view is Bishop Aukland and Hartlepool are turning blue, while Sedgefield and Stockton North are too close to call.

  48. @john pilgrim:

    No increased consumption is the only certainty.

    What you say may or may not be true in a particular case at a particular time. It says nothing of wider economic ripples. Does the availability of migrants with under utilised skills provide employers with an opportunity to cut local training? Does actual production of value increase and by how much? Does the availability of cheaper labour lead to bosses not investing in technology – as was the case when our millls when importing Asians who they paid less? Do you factor in how much is sent home? How many retire home? Is that losing a health care cost, or sending pensions to be spent abroad?

    It is not that immigration equals bad. Just that it is not automatically anything – other than more being consumed.

  49. @Trevor Warne

    Yes I have seen those crossbreaks and the historically relatively low loyalty amongst Labour voters is what I had in mind. One of the reasons I’m dreading the morning of Friday 9th June.

  50. @ DAVE – I agree voting against what people don’t want (protest vote) can be important in many votes and that is why IndyRef, Brexit, etc had high turnout and why pretty much everyone expected LDEM to be in the mid teens possibly higher now. However, if people accept the expected outcome (or just don’t care) then turnout drops (e.g 2001 GE, most local elections)

    I’m sure a few people will be pointing out a low turnout does not give a “mandate” for Brexit but I think the opposite. A low turnout means people are happy with the expected outcome (simply the flip side of not being so upset about it that they got out in masses to vote against the expected outcome). If a certain party only gets say 8% of the vote on say a 60% turnout, clearly not many people want to stop Brexit (less than 5% of electorate to be precise!)

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