There have been two new voting intention polls today from Panelbase and Kantar.

Kantar has topline figures of CON 47%(+3),LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 6%(-2). (tabs)
Panelbase have topline figures of CON 47%(-1), LAB 33%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc) (tabs)

Once again, the broad picture appears to be a hefty Tory lead, Labour creeping upwards (Kantar still have Labour in the twenties – like ICM and ComRes they have a turnout model that is based partially on demographics, in the case of Kantar they base part of their turnout model on respondent’s ages and the historical pattern of turnout by age), UKIP and the Liberal Democrats being squeezed.

The 33% that Labour have in the Panelbase poll is the highest the party have scored in the campaign so far. Along with yesterday’s polls this has provoked some comment – how can Labour be polling at about the same as 2015 given their division, Corbyn’s poor ratings and so on? Part of this seems to be that substantial numbers of voters who don’t like Jeremy Corbyn do seem to be holding their noses and voting for Labour anyway. For example, 17% of current Labour voters would like the Conservative party to win the election. Presumably they are Labour supporters who don’t want a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn, but are voting for the party – perhaps through party loyalty, support for their local candidate, to ensure an viable opposition, or to give Labour a bigger base to recover from. That combination of holding onto some unhappy Labour voters who don’t like Corbyn and gaining some new voters from the Greens and non-voters mean the Labour vote may not be collapsing in the way some expected.

Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.


615 Responses to “Latest Kantar and Panelbase voting intention”

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  1. If the differences between the turnout models hold, then maybe we will know which one is right by the 9th of June.

  2. LibDem collapse continues and on track towards an even worse election night than in 2015.

  3. Or, you know, some voters are being won over by Corbyn and / or the manifesto and / or the local Labour pitches. That’s also a possibility. If you’re going to wonder about why the Lab vote share in the polls iscreeping up, you really should be adding that possibility to the list.

  4. “Of course, it may also be that the publicity of the manifesto leak and launch is giving Labour a temporary boost, that the Conservatives and the hostile media have not yet turned their full cannons upon Jeremy Corbyn, or that the polls haven’t done enough to address over-estimates of Labour support. We shall see.”

    You covered a lot of bases there. Your professional training is shining through – it’s not about the numbers, it’s about the errors.

  5. Huge Tory victory. No other possible outcome.

    The right wing seem to have united with UKIP more or less conceding for the Tories. That has given CON an unassailable lead.

    I wonder how some of those traditional Labour voters now feel about supporting UKIP via Brexit. As most of us knew all along, UKIP were just the Thatcher wing of the Tory party. And with UKIP standing down to give the Tories more seats, that much must now be clear to all. Surely………

  6. I thought pages 6&7 of the Kantar tables were the silliest I have seen!

    Two whole pages dedicated to the 72 in the weighted base who plan to vote in Scotland!

    Then I saw pages 8&9. Another two pagse for the 45 in Wales.

    Sometimes geographic crossbreaks can be useful – but this is nonsense. Especially since they don’t even include SNP or Plaid in their 2015 column headers.

  7. Apparently the Home Office have today overturned the decision to not grant a visa to the Syrian minister wanting to attend the General Assembly.

    One can imagine the anguished call from Davidson to May about the damage it would cause : the quick call from No 10 to the relevant Minister to get this sorted, and the muttering of the civil servant who was ordered to change a decision for political reasons.

    Of course, such imaginings may be wholly misplaced, and can easily be discounted by anyone who can quote examples of all the other ministers banned from entry to the UK where the ban was subsequently lifted.

  8. Any views on whether the Labour manifesto launch will cause a change in the polls? Or just appeal to the c.30% who are already due to vote for him according to the polls?

  9. Hi folks. Not posted since the bleak may night of 2015 – and the subsequent collapse of faith in pollsters.
    But im back for more – its like an abusive relationship.

    Anyway – labour creeping up – can they improve on 2015s vote share? Which would be a decent achievement given brexit and party divisions.
    And are labours policies – offering a clear alternative to the same old same old for the first time in generations – behind their small but steady up creep in the polls?

    Its interesting that corbyn is pulling crowds of thousands wherever he goes – 3/4000 in leeds yesterday on a wet weekday afternoon. Even in his hey day Blair would not have pulled those numbers. He does appeal to a lot of people in a way that I ve never seen with a politician. Something is happening – it wont win the election, but it may help with getting younger people to register and vote.

    Do we still get you gov polls of an evening?

  10. Its not what Labour polled at the last election that matters with this sort of polling – it is what the polls were saying at the time. And if I remember rightly it was neck and neck!!

  11. Labour want to take back control of public utilities, well it’s better than the French or other governments owning them.

  12. I am curious as to what reaction Labour canvassers (Guymonde and others) are getting on the doorstep to (a) the Labour manifesto (are potential Labour voters excited by what is undoubtedly an audacious attempt to offer a very different vision of the UK’s future or do they consider it so much hot air, undeliverable pipe-dreams?) and (b) the prospect of the kind of stonking Tory majority we haven’t seen since the 1980s (will it drive potential Labour voters into the polling booths?)

    Enthusiasm for Labour’s policies seems to be outweighed by faith in TM’s ability to deliver a better Brexit deal than other party leaders. I am surprised the other parties haven’t done more to attack her credentials for negotiation with the EU, or even the whole notion of ‘strong leadership’.

    Farron has probably done more on this than other parties, but when he criticises the Tories’ approach to getting a deal people don’t listen to the specific criticism because they know the LDs don’t want to leave the EU at all. Bartley – Green party co-leader – gave a surprisingly limp response to a question about leadership last week’s ‘Any Questions’.

  13. Just think – if we had a Labour Government what would that do to politics in this country let alone the rest of the world? Or we could have 5 more boring years of May and her cronies. Come on – let’s have some fun.

  14. Tories clearly biding their time, let the Lab manifesto run out of steam or get stuck in on the figures. Let’s face it, this stuff can’t really be paid for. It’s probably half a trillion in that manifesto.

  15. @Reggieside – got to have you back.

    I don’t think Labour polling about 2015 should be seen as any form of success. They aren’t fighting off UKIP, for a start, and two more years when we’ve really started to see the cuts bite should be making their task much easier. I won’t dredge through all this again, but I don’t consider it statistically sound to draw direct lines from one election to another – political context is far more important.

    I also recall Foot getting big crowds in 1983, but I don’t want to sound curmudgeonly – I am happy Corbyn is showing a fundamentally honest face to the political world and is standing up for what he believes in. Few other politicians can honestly say that.

    I can quibble about some of the policy detail, but in a broad brush sense he is absolutely right. It is taxation and the good spending thereof that has made the world civilised, with health care, education, pensions and other state delivered services provided. The free market needs controlling and directing, and states need to get their confidence that they can represent their people, not just suck up to big business.

    Those who believed in Ayn Rand’s cod philosophy as 15 year olds I can forgive, but those who still believed it once they reach their 20’s need to be lobotomised.

    Labour won’t win, but I admire Corbyn’s honesty.

  16. @Adam

    Likely improve. I mean Labours current support is not going to react negatively to it and its another day of Labour in the headlines.

    Might be when the Tories launch their manifesto things will change but right now I think they are habing a pretty lacklustre campaign. Little commitments and an uncharasmatic PM mean they are more or less just getting mentioned right now.

    Its postal voting week so I doubt the Tories are too bothered – they’ll be winning in a week based on these numbers though perhaps the ‘expect her to win’ will impact here. I still question if they’ll make as many gains as they want.

  17. @Alec

    Labour doesn’t have Ukip to contend with, but it is up against a one party Brexit coalition.

  18. Thanks Fraser. Can understand the Tories sitting on their hands at the moment….if you’re that far ahead in the polls, then the clocking ticking around a few times with nothing changing is surely good…so why risk anything at all?!?

    Even if the Tories end up with a 50 seat majority its good for them isnt it? Its enough to get stuff done and not be held by ransom by a few, and gives an extra 2 years before the next election

  19. Some comment on the ECJ’s judgement today on trade talks on the last thread.

    This does make UK’s job somewhat easier, in that national parliaments will have less say in the deal. Although that cuts two ways. Brexiters in government used to tell us that the commission was ‘the enemy’, and that once we sat down and had a chat with the governments we could get more friendly terms.

    What is much more interesting is the illustration of how the EU is currently developing. As a reluctant remainer, one of my concerns was the increasing difficulty of managing democratic control of such a vast body.

    This judgement hands substantial authority to the executive, under the guise of defining competences. Now, issues of trade that impact upon labour and the environment, for example, can be decided by the commission alone.

    Personally, I think this may end up being catastrophic for the EU if it is badly applied. I also think it is the wrong direction for the EU to go in, and it’s going to be interesting to see how this develops.

    One of the big issues with the EU is ‘mission creep’ by the executive, as unlike national governance, where parliaments can overturn court rulings by passing new laws, within the EU the role of the ECJ in defining and interpreting treaties is such that it can be very difficult for citizens to overturn new legal interpretations that were unexpected or unwanted.

  20. @ Adam

    I wouldn’t have thought a 50 seat majority would justify the bother, disruption and cost of an election. As for an ability to get stuff done I’m not sure what the stuff is – there’s to be no ‘running commentary’ on Brexit which presumably won’t come back to parliament until the deal is negotiated. What ‘stuff’ was she frightened rebels in her own party would block?

    The whole point of this was to get a big majority. I think they’ll be looking for 75 plus as a decent result.

  21. Labour’s manifesto is largely redistributive, but for public services and not for individuals, which is really a big step.

    No, they definitely won’t have the revenue, and the cost could be 70-100% more.

    They also allowed to be directed to the ground “we are better than the Tories”, on which they can only lose, instead of “we are the ones who can do it” (it turns up in some paragraphs). So, I don’t think it will work.

    The rest is really minor. What he could have done when announcing the nationalisation of a utility (except for water, which is just wrong), having the next CEO, if they are elected, next to him, of course with credibility, and being introduced.

    Alas, it doesn’t and won’t happen. It is clear, however, that at least one more MP (apart from Corbyn) is campaigning for leadership, and she is doing very well.

  22. @Sorbus I was canvassing in the locals in St Albans and for the general in Leicester West and Derby North. My personal experience is that other than few people being in I’ve had a mostly positive response. I’ve had little hostility too apart from one person, whose issue was to do with us bothering him than anything else, everyone has been really positive. There is a lot of personal support for the local candidates. My worry is turnout tbh I think people aren’t that bothered this time round.

    Many of my friends who have also been campaigning in Leicester West and Corby have said the manifesto has been good on the doorstep and while they’ve had stuff about Corbyn they like the local candidates and the manifesto.

  23. I`m posting this again because it was released from moderation in a previous thread so late that very few would read it. And questions keep coming, asking about LibDem pockets of support in Scotland, and whether SCon would switch tactically to LibDem if they had a better chance of beating SNP.

    There are more LibDem pockets are in and near Aberdeen and they appear to have some of the same make-up ingredients as Edinburgh West.

    In the Hazlehead/Queen`s Cross ward in the Aberdeen locals LibDems received 44% of 1st preference votes, and had 2 candidates elected with 1725 and 1592 1st pref votes.

    In several other middle-class city areas the LibDem vote was 50-100% greater than the Cons vote.

    It`s a combination of university and oil/gas workers pushing this vote, many of them Remain supporters and English. I would think that Scots were only 60-70% of the electorate in these districts, reducing SNP`s share of centrist Remain voters. And I reckon some Con supporters do vote LibDem, based on the candidates` personal views.

    But outwith the city, in rural Aberdeenshire, farmers and landowners boost the Tory vote, making it hard to predict the June GE results here.

    And in our seat of West Aberd & Kincard, I have been surprised by the lack of info/leaflets/posters for the GE since the locals. Neither LibDems or Cons have sent us anything about their candidates, their abilities, intentions, skills.

    So I reckon there are many undecided voters here, and our seat could be won by LibDem, SNP or Tory depending on how each party gets its message out..

  24. @ Lazslo

    You mean Thornberry? If so, I agree she seems to be everywhere ATM

  25. As I said at the end of the previous thread, the Lib Dems are now the story, the remainers are deserting them and voting Labour instead. (Parallel of what is happening with UKIP and the Tories)

    As they get squeezed further, this is going to get a lot tighter, and the Yougov marginals poll shows us it is impacting in Labour/Tory marginals making those races competitive for Labour again.

    This election is going to be a lot closer than what is being suggested.

  26. There are a couple of things of note in Labour’s slight recovery in the polls, from around 25% they were attaining before the General Election was announced.
    First is that when it actually comes for voting Labour’s vote will hold up. We saw this in the local elections in Wales and in Scotland. In Scotland, they achieved around 20% of First Preference votes, much higher than in the Westminster polls, where it was in the range 15-18%. The share should have been lower, given the large number of Independents in local elections.
    Second is that the Conservatives employ a master tactician in Lynton Crosby. He knows about not peaking too early in campaigns. The comparisons between parties policies, the leaders and the comparisons with the 1970s policies will come later.
    These two points are slightly contradictory. I think Labour will drop slightly in the polls, then on election night show remarkable resilience in the actual poll. They will still have less seats than in 2015, and also less than 1983, but still not as low as the betting markets.

  27. Bardin1

    I actually though Yvette Cooper (maybe it’s a narrow circle of MPs, but it is active – I picked it up accidentally), but you are right, Thornberry identifies with, and distances from Corbyn at the same time.

  28. Thornberry? Is that a joke? She’d be an even greater advert for the Tories than Corbyn. At least Corbyn doesn’t look down his nose at people.

  29. Laszlo

    You’ve mentioned Yvette Cooper a number of times and I have to say that I have also been very impressed with her, particularly her writing and handling of committee work in the Commons.

    I did notice though that, in the leadership contest a lot of the worst elements of social media laid into her for “looking like a pixie”, having a squeaky voice” and other such pathetic insults.

    As you seem to follow such things closely I wonder if you think she has what it takes to run again – and this time, win? I certainly think she has the measure of Mrs May and, perhaps, would have had the nous to refuse to allow her to call a GE in the manner she did.

    [It always seemed to me that a half decent script writer could have thrown past government commitments to a fixed term, and May’s own words, back at her and left her very vulnerable. ]

  30. I hope Abbott would run for leadership if Corbyn resigns, it would be funny to see the Tories at 60% in the polls.

  31. I think Thornberry lost all possibility of leading Labour after her white van man comment last year.

  32. I don’t see how Corbyn will outperform Brown and EdM on the day even with the collapse of LD support but assuming he does, the Panalbase poll still gives a majority of around the 1987 level of 102 (with an SNP seat or two thrown in). My guess is at least a point on the LD score from Lab, a point from Lab to Con and from UKIP to Con which would take it to somewhere around 49/31/8/4/2 which would yield a majority of around 150. I still think 100 is too low, 200 is too high.

  33. Tory campaign

    Dangers

    1. apathy- answer.dont campaign early and let others build first creating a threat.
    2. Negativity- avoid. Remember project fear. Stay positive.mild attacks on Corbyn only. do not attack Labour values as it will cause tribalism
    3.Loss of momentum- build campaign over the last few weeks and squeeze out any comeback. Change the direction of the guns At the start it will have been assumed that the threat would come from the liberals to potentially disrupt a large majority.It is now Labour pure and simple
    4. Confused message- there can only one relentlessly to be driven. May or Corbyn to deliver Brexit. all other messages forgotten.

  34. MANICBEANCOUNTER

    “In Scotland, they achieved around 20% of First Preference votes, much higher than in the Westminster polls, where it was in the range 15-18%. The share should have been lower, given the large number of Independents in local elections.”

    I’m not sure that argument is sustainable about the Scottish local elections.

    20% isn’t “much higher” than the 15-18% for Westminster polling, although it is higher.

    The only polling for the local elections had SLab on 14% & 17% – but both polls were nonsensical for all the parties, in that they didn’t measure Independents.

    While 1st preference voting is the best way to measure party support in an STV election, it can’t really be translated into how people will vote in a FPTP election.

    Under STV, “tactical voting” is conducted by how you allocate your lower preference votes. Under FPTP, the tactical consideration determines your only preference.

    All the Unionist parties fought the Scottish locals on a “Say No to a 2nd Indy Ref” ticket. That may have motivated more strident Unionists to vote than they might otherwise have done. Without a detailed academic analysis of the voting patterns, we can’t really tell.

    Simply because local councillors are “local”, they tend to be well known, and have often provided practical help to voters, Incumbency is a positive factor in FPTP elections – I’d expect it to be even more important in an STV Council election.

    Having said all that, I still expect the SLab vote to be a bit more resilient next month than the polls are suggesting. I don’t think it will get them seats, but for the reasons I’ve already outlined, this may well be an election where folk vote for principles they hold, rather than trying to affect the UK GE result, which is in the hands of others.

  35. S Thomas

    Very sensible.

    Labour, in a way should be a kind of opposite (not in everything (1,2,4) – but they are not doing it.

  36. @ Richard . The last two polls show tory leads of 18 and 15 percent , the lib dems on 8 and 7 , how much more could labour possibly squeeze out of them!

  37. I meant that Labour should do the opposite on S Thomas’s point 1, 2, 4).

  38. I’ve seen no evidence that Thornberry looks down her nose at anyone and I think the offence at her tweet was rather manufactured by the press. Still, it’s true the perception is there and it’s a problem for her, rightly or wrongly.

  39. I don’t particularly warm to Thornberry but she has been fairly resilient in the interviews I have seen

  40. These polls are further confirmation that Corbyn will get the same, if not more, vote share than in 2015. Given the Labour party membership’s strong hand in leadership selection, Corbyn is set to challenge again in 2022.

  41. @Marco

    For an illustration, read this article that shows how a 9% Tory headline lead currently shown in Labour Tory marginal polls shrinks to a 2% lead when asked how they will vote in their constituency.

    Partly a tactical vote to keep out another party, partly voting for the local mp rather than the national party, and possibly a vote against a landslide by one party.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/tory-targets-findings-labour-held-marginals/

    But it all adds up to make Tory easy wins quite marginal.

  42. Erick
    In 5 years’ time he will be nearly 73, and he recently told a questioner that 68 was too old to retire (i.e. it should be earlier). I feel that he will step down at a time of his choosing, having remade the Labour Party in his own image (as he would see it), provided a suitable successor is lined up.
    ———————————————————-
    I wonder whether the voting public has noticed that Corbyn’s appointed Andrew Murray, a recent member of the Communist party and Stalin apologist as his campaign chief? Can you imagine the outcry if Theresa May had appointed an ex-BNP Austrian corporal apologist?

  43. I nearly forgot – G’night all.

  44. Re @MANICBEANCOUNTER

    @OLDNAT a question,

    Just a thought, could one contributory factor why the SLab first preference votes were slightly higher in the locals compared with the Westminster Polls be the 16 & 17 year olds who got to vote in locals. Tabs always show a bias amongst the youngest voters towards Slab versus Scon (but not SNat), but as we know they won’t get to vote in the GE and don’t get counted in all the Westminster Polls.

    Similarly, could there also be another significant reason for the Liberal polling differential in the locals compared with the Westminster polls at that time. There are supposed to be 3 million European citizens living in the U.K. any one of those 3 million who are over 18 can vote in the Local elections and the European elections but not in a GE or the EU referendum for that matter. On the basis that Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas there must have been some bias towards the remainer Ldems away from TM’s leaver Cons amongst this population. My hypothesis is that there must have been several hundred thousand extra votes cast in the locals from a group of voters with a significant Ldem bias that won’t get to cast the same vote again at the forthcoming GE.

  45. @Richard,

    Remainers leaving the LDs for Corbyn?

    Not on your nellie. We’re boycotting this sham election — let the Tories fall on their Brexit sword and we can talk about where our votes go in 2022.

  46. @Jason

    The evidence suggests otherwise

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png

    Look at this graph
    – UKIP collapse when the GE is called, goes straight to Tories
    – LID Dems – drip feed collapse, Tories now stable and Labour climbing in line with the Lib Dem drop. Possibly even some UKIP now going to Labour since the initial large UKIP drop as Tories stable as UKIP continues decline. Greens also dropping. Labour now the only one gaining.

  47. @S Thomas

    Yes, agree with your analysis. Attack Corbyn for his perceived unpatriotic baggage, his competence as a leader and his team’s competence to run the economy.

    Looking at the continual squeezing of LibDem support I am now co-opting your fantasy of the disposal of Clegg on election night by the returning officer.

    Lamb and Brake look toast as well.

    @BLUE BOB

    I have always thought how hilarious it would be if Abbott were to be elected on a wave of Momentum and £3 Tory support if Corbyn steps down. It could happen!

  48. @BARDIN1

    A 50 seat majority and an extra 2 years before the next election would be well worth the trouble of having an election. With a 12 seat majority you’re seriously exposed to events, dear boy. With 50 you can pretty much do what you want, including giving the HoL a good smacking if it tries to put a spoke in the wheels. But the two years is very valuable too. Only a child thinks Brexit is going to be smooth sailing. Another couple of years to get through the choppiest waters is well worth having.

    Which is not to say that given the polls at the open, a 50 seat majority might not be a bit disappointing for Mrs May. It’s like winning the Premiership on the final day by scraping a 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace, rather than thumping Arsenal 5-0 away, to snatch it on goal difference. Not the most glorious performance, but you still get the title.

  49. This will add fuel to the charge that Len McClusky and Corbyn are looking beyond this election to cement their control of Labour:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/labour-proposes-45p-income-tax-above-80000

    “I believe that if Labour can hold on to 200 seats or so it will be a successful campaign,” McCluskey said in an interview with the Politico website. “It will mean that Theresa May will have had an election, will have increased her majority but not dramatically.”

    Victory was unlikely, McCluskey added. He said that “Labour’s policies will make Britain a better and more equal society,” but added: “The scale of the task is immense. People like me are always optimistic … things can happen. But I don’t see Labour winning. I think it would be extraordinary.”

    Or it’s just a statement of the bleeding obvious!

  50. @Lee Moore

    We’ll have to agree to disagree old chap

    This is what she said when calling for a vote:

    She added: “In recent weeks Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the SNP say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union, and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.”

    I can’t see how any of that practically changes at all with a 50 majority – about 75 would be seen as a big endorsement of her approach. Personally I think she will get that anyway, so we are probably arguing about nothing (but that’s politics most of the time)

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