Two new voting intention polls today. The first by Survation for Good Morning Britain had topline figures of CON 48%(+1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 4%(nc). Clearly there is no substantial change since their poll a week ago. Fieldwork was conducted on Friday and Saturday, after the leak of the Labour manifesto, and doesn’t show any sign of any impact.

The second was the weekly ICM poll for the Guardian. Topline figures there are CON 48%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 6%(nc). As many have noted, ICM are now are, along with TNS, one of only two pollsters still showing Labour support below thirty points (MORI last poll did the same, but that was several weeks ago when everyone showed Labour that low). It’s not that ICM haven’t shown Labour support rising a little. ICM have been showing Labour recovering slightly, it’s just they’ve been doing so at a slightly lower figures: at the start of the campaign ICM had Labour at 25-26% and they now have them at 27%-28%.

This seems to be a consistent methodological difference. The methodological differences between pollsters are complicated and various, and some of them work in opposite directions (ICM, for example, also reallocate don’t knows in a way that helps Labour) but the most obvious one at the moment is probably the approach to turnout. Traditionally British pollsters have accounted for people’s likelihood to vote by getting respondents to estimate their own likelihood to vote – put crudely, they ask people to say how likely they are to vote on a scale of 0 to 10, and then either weight them accordingly (someone who says they are 8/10 likely to vote is only counted as 8/10ths of someone who says 10/10), or apply a cut off, ignoring people who rate their chances below 5/10 or 9/10 or 10/10. Since 2015 several companies, including YouGov and Ipsos MORI, have also factored in whether people say they have voted in the past, weighting down past non-voters.

ICM and ComRes have adopted new approaches. Rather than basing their turnout model on people’s self-reported likelihood to vote, they base it on their demographics – estimating respondent’s likelihood to vote based on their age and social grade – the assumption being that younger people and working class people will remain less likely than older, more middle class people to vote. This tends to have the effect of making the results substantially more Conservative, less Labour, meaning that ICM and ComRes tend to produce some of the biggest Tory leads.

Full tabs for the ICM poll are here and the Survation poll here.


263 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation voting intentions”

1 2 3 4 5 6
  1. Just seen the start of the Labour manifesto launch in Bradford

    Shades of Kinnock?

  2. TOH
    ‘Your grandparents got it spot on. I lived through the 70’s and it was a dreadful time. The 80s were like a huge breath of fresh air.’

    Yes – a bit like the Third Reich was in relation to the Weimar Republic.

  3. @TOH,

    This Labour launch is pretty left. These stories from members of the public to kick things off are all heavily anti Tory. Not sure I like this angle.

    Rich

  4. RPI inflation is now back up to 3.5% – much the same level as the mid 1980s.We have now moved quite some way from price stability.

  5. I think recollections of the 1970’s seem to be a little confused. The three day week occurred in 1974 between January and March: it was a result of the Oil Crisis and there was a Conservative government. The winter of discontent, rubbish on the streets etc. was in 1978/9 and was the result of a general global downturn.

    As a lad from a poor family on a Council Estate in Swansea all I can say is that the 70’s were wonderful, at the beginning of the decade we had to fill up with bread and butter at every meal as otherwise we wouldn’t get enough to eat, by the end of the decade we had central heating and a colour television. I had more than two outfits (early 1970 it was just one for best and one for the week.) I imagine those middle class individuals who were met with high interest rates on mortgages were balanced out by those who received high interest for their savings, and didn’t generally do too badly. However for the working class it was a decade of progress which was halted by Thatcherism, when unemployment went from the previously unimaginable 1 million to the incredible 3 million destroying many working class families in South Wales. So TOH I do not have your Rosey view of the 1980’s but I do have good memories of the 1970’s, so I suppose its all a matter of perspective.

  6. “Old Nat is quite correct: the UK is not a very pleasant place to live at the moment.”

    Utter rubbish – I love living in this country – having lived in America and Europe I would always come back here.

  7. Alec

    OK I get the joke, but it wasn’t just Carney, the OR was wrong as well.

    I accept that i am a little sensitive on Brexit, leaving means so much to me. Happy to accept your not having a pot at us.

  8. GRAHAM

    How rediculous.

  9. The 80s were horrible for Scotland while London and the South East prospered, Scottish industry died. I fear that’s what we are going back to with Brexit

  10. Alec

    Sorry OBR

  11. Re-inflation.

    I am not disputing the official figures – but – they don’t tell the whole story.

    There are two factors at play here – and this has been true for at least 5 years, if not, much longer.

    Firstly, in terms of essentials [food, bills, bus fare etc], price rises have been way higher than the official inflation rate.

    I do a like for like comparison on essentials only every year, this year, for me, the price hike is 16.5%.

    On the other side of the coin, in other parts of the economy, there is actually DEFLATION. [Many things, including CDs, DVDs, some tech stuff etc. where prices, either in real terms, or in many cases even in actual terms, have fallen].

    What this means in terms of day to day living is, if you are on minimum wage, on a zero hours contract, claiming social security…is that you have progressively less spending power, if you can actually make ends meet.

    On the other hand, you don’t have to be particularly rich to have seen your spending power increase. Someone on an average or slightly above average wage, is likely to be a little better off in relative terms.

  12. “Chris Williamson, chief business economist at analysts IHS Markit, said: “The timing of Easter looks to have played an important role in pushing inflation higher in year-on-year terms.”

    An obvious nonsense statement. The year May 2016-April 2017 has one Easter in it. What would be more reasonable would be to say that last month’s figures were artificially suppressed by the fact that Easter was early last year, so that the April 2016-March 2017 didn’t contain an Easter period.

  13. Yeah that timing of Easter comment made me laugh whilst listening to the radio in the car. It’s a long time since I have heard anybody say ‘the business just performed poorly’. It’s now always Brexit and or some other ludicrous excuse.

  14. @Mark

    Indeed. I once made the same observation about how much digital camera you could get for your money versus how little gas and leccy these days.

    Sails right over the heads of many economic commentators though…

  15. What an amazing country this is that (yet another) vile comment about how horrible we are would be met with such polite and reasoned responses.

  16. @ROBIN

    You may know better than me, but my understanding of the YOY comparison was April 2017 v April 2016, not a last 12 months v the same period from year ago?

    The timing of Easter has a major impact (positive and negative) on many businesses.

  17. David Colby

    Fortunately it’s unusual for this site but there are one or two who break the bounds of reasonable comment.

  18. @Graham

    Now now. Let’s keep a lid on the human wickedness and evil talk!

    During the decade of the 1980s GDP per capita increased by 31.4% in real terms. Probably one of the reasons why the Tories kept getting elected.

  19. Inflation was higher in 2012/13, and much higher many times over the last 4 decades. Was this due to EU membership lol?

    J-Curve effects of fair value currency include a booming UK tourism sector, 22 yr factory confidence high, consumers and business turning to home sourcing and slowly starting to address Mervyn Kings number 1 concern, the unsustainable trade deficit. We could not go on spending and importing.

  20. @Sea Change – yes, and it went up by 27.6% in the 1970’s but with a much, much more equitable distribution.

  21. SEA CHANGE

    Exactly.

    My wife’s parents both staunch Labour loved the 80’s, bought their council house and some privatised shares and improved their standard of living substantially. One still voted labour but the other cancelled out that vote from then on.

  22. Fr Alec benefit i should add that my wife’s parent were both bus conductors, so no well off at all. Hated the 70’s because of all the industrial action.

  23. RICHARDB

    Exactly.

  24. The 80s were great for the ordinary working man. Basic rate of income tax was reduced from 33% to 22% for starters. And please no quibbling if one of those reductions was in 1979 or 1990! Many other things – ability to buy council houses, a stake in de-nationalised companies etc. all at knock-down prices.

  25. Dont get why people here confusing Marxist and his idea of a classless, stateless society…with the authoritarian statist nutjobs of stalin/mao and lenin

    He was a left libertarian.

    Marx’s view (while becoming outdated due to technological advances) really dont scare me……its the totalitarian nature of USSR / China – worst aspects of socialism…..which scares the living daylights out of me

    The media has carefully confused both

  26. “The 80s were great for the ordinary working man.”

    Maybe in the arrogantly named “home counties”…..but here in Wales I remember mothers having to feed their kids with a few cans of beans a day……….

    Your life experiences were different Pete B

  27. A well presented manifesto launch by Jeremy, I think.

    Let’s hope enough people see him on the evening news tonight. I am sure he will soon gain traction, and the all important uptick in opinion poll numbers.

  28. 70’s vs 80’s, another great discussion. Personally I loved the 70’s (I was a small kid, so things like power shortages and having to use candles was great). 80’s not so hot – that’s when my dad lost his job, along with millions of others. I doubt many of those families thought the 80’s were a breath of fresh air!

  29. Edeyrn

    I was in the principality in the eighties and they were indeed hard times.

    That said, the community spirit was wonderful in my valley and some enjoyable times were had amongst the good Rhondda people.

  30. @PETE B

    “The 80s were great for the ordinary working man. Basic rate of income tax was reduced from 33% to 22% for starters. And please no quibbling if one of those reductions was in 1979 or 1990! Many other things – ability to buy council houses, a stake in de-nationalised companies etc. all at knock-down prices.”

    ————

    I think it would be fair to call it quibbling over a 1979 reduction. Not so sure about 1990 though!!

    80s was good for other reasons, the world boom ushered in by the collapse in price of oil, and the rise of the digital synth for eggers.

    The millions unemployed and their struggling communities not on a position to benefit from the sell-off might have registered summat different in polling though…

  31. Rudyard

    If we could run this country on your enthusiasm we would be on fire.

    It will be interesting if the polls show any movement to Labour manifesto.

    Also, lets see how the Tories counter with theirs.

    I have a feeling that most people have already made their minds up.

  32. EDEYRN
    As it happens, I’ve never lived in the home counties and share your dislike of the arrogance to some extent. Neither were we particularly well off. When I first married in the late 70s, our staple meal was turkey-neck stew, with turkey necks bought from the market just before they closed so they were even cheaper. I was also made redundant three times in the 80s, so got another job the first two times and started my own business the third.

    We’ll just have to accept that as you say, life experiences are different. So is how one responds. Some seem to just complain and think the world owes them a living, while others just get on with it.

    Anyway, back to the present. Though Labour’s manifesto launch seemed very popular with the crowd, I wonder whether it will affect VI? My guess would be perhaps Labour might go up a point or two in the first poll after the announcement and then revert to the usual 28-30%.

  33. @Pete B

    The reaction of any self-selecting crowd doesn’t matter a fig in my view.

    The real test is will people aged 55+, not politically active but certain to vote, like it enough to vote Labour on June 8th.

    Much harder to assess!

  34. @Pete B – “The 80s were great for the ordinary working man. Basic rate of income tax was reduced from 33% to 22% for starters. And please no quibbling if one of those reductions was in 1979 or 1990! Many other things – ability to buy council houses, a stake in de-nationalised companies etc. all at knock-down prices.”

    The ‘knock down prices’ is a bit of a giveaway!

    Essentially this is an admission that assets were flogged off below market value, which isn’t necessarily a terrible thing to do, depending on the overall policy package, but there was a clear redistributive policy, with fewer people gaining the lions share.

    It’s pointless (I think AW would agree) to have a retrospective debate on previous decades, but it does illustrate a polling point – we tend to favour a side depending on our own unique experience of shared events. Essentially, that’s why we have politics – so we can find a reasonable way to collectively govern a population of unique individuals.7

    Personally, for me the 1980’s were rather good, and the last decade in particular has been spectacular. However, I would trade a lot of that in if I could live in a country without homelessness and where I felt secure that the future was heading in the right direction.

    Call me odd, but the idea of reveling in my good fortune while I see queues at food banks and young people living in cardboard boxes makes me feel rather an unpleasant person.

    I haven’t experienced such emotions since the 1980’s.

  35. Good Afternoon All; home for lunch, still no signs of any election in my ward.
    GRAHAM; Hello: I have always respected your academic attention to detail, but I feel your Nazi Germany comparison to Weimar very upsetting indeed.

    It is my view that GB was dying in 1978-79 which was post grad year for me in Manchester. Channel 4’s Documentary ‘Death of a Revolutionary’ biog film of Mrs T nails it, IMO.

    I see that Corbyn evokes Wilson, who won of course in 64 and 66, and was one of the writers of the Beveridge Report. Healey, Callaghan, Jenkins, Crosland were his lieutenants. They had distinguished war records in different forms, especially Healey who ran the beaches at Anzio and still sings a song the ‘D’ Day Dodgers which his men sang in response to Astor’s nasty jibe at a dinner party in North London.

  36. Pete B
    ‘ Basic rate of income tax was reduced from 33% to 22% for starters.’

    Not so – the Basic rate of Income Tax was still 25% for the Financial Year 1994/1995.

  37. @Alec

    So going from 27.6% to 31.4% is hardly going from the Weimar Republic to the Third Reich which was my point to deflate Graham’s hyperbole.

  38. Chrislane
    ‘It is my view that GB was dying in 1978-79 which was post grad year for me in Manchester.’

    Not to the extent that it was in 1973-74. Inflation was quite a bit lower – the Balance of Payments was stronger – and unemployment had fallen by 100,000 in one year.

  39. @Sea Change – agreed.

    On those 1980’s taxes – also worth noting that employees NI went from 6.5% in 1979 to 9% in 1982, which meant that the overall salary tax on most people only fell by 5.5%, while VAT went from 7.5% to 15%.

  40. Graham
    You’re quite right. Faulty memory. Still a great reduction though. But I’ve tried to move on to nowadays with my previous post.

  41. We’ve had promises for an entire week that the Labour manifesto would be FULLY costed. And now we find out that that was a plain deception.

    So who’s paying for the lavish and fantastical re-nationalisation plans?

    Anyone??

  42. @Pete B

    “We’ll just have to accept that as you say, life experiences are different. So is how one responds. Some seem to just complain and think the world owes them a living, while others just get on with it.”

    ————

    It can be a danger to attribute success to oneself rather than circumstances, and likewise failure to others.

    Some sectors were hit much harder than others in the oil crisis. Some sectors, even today, it’s much easier to find another job. It could be easier to find another job in the eighties once the oil price fell back and the boom occurred.

    People weather successive crises one at a time, and then think they’re resourceful and others aren’t, but research shows it is the unlucky ones who have carp things all occurring at once that wind up struggling.

    On top of all this Pete, let’s take the instances where you’re right, where it is just the case that you’re maybe more entrepreneurial than some others. But maybe they’re not optimised for that, maybe they’re optimised for being paramedics, saving lives under difficult conditions and are a bit better at others good with accounts and running a business. Maybe they’re great at designing algorithms but rubbish at negotiating. Or good at care work but not with accounts etc…

  43. “…saving lives under difficult conditions and are a bit better at THAT THAN others good with accounts and with running a business.”

  44. I looked back at the party split on YouGov’s “Releavers” article for Brexit that seemed to hit a lot of press and bucketing Leavers+Releavers and factoring in DK by you get (Leave/Remain) by VI:

    UKIP 95%, 5%
    CON 95%, 5%
    LAB 57%, 43%
    LIB 40%, 60%

    The write-up to the piece suggested LAB + LIB were both fishing from the Remain pond which looks misleading. It looks like LAB at least are trying to have a rod in each pond and even LIB have a lot of Re-Leavers.

    The campaigns will focus on domestic manifesto issues this week but given the lack of clarity on LAB Brexit policies this seems like a knife that the CON election machine will surely come back to and twist hard in the final week?
    Some CON manifesto details regarding a post-Brexit Britain would arm them with the ability to make a final campaign week attack on LAB (and LIB) lack of Brexit plans.

    Guess we’ll see on Thursday!

  45. @BERNARD

    “So who’s paying for the lavish and fantastical re-nationalisation plans?”

    Perhaps our eager beaver Rudyard could furnish you with that answer. I don’t think we’ve had anyone so immune to the polls on here before.

  46. @ Carfrew

    once again in agreeing with you I return to the Zen of Pratchett
    “You just get one chance, she said. You live for maybe seventy years, and if you’re lucky you get one chance.
    Think of all the natural skiers who are born in deserts. Think of all the genius blacksmiths who were born hundreds of years before anyone invented the horse. All the skills that are never used. All the wasted chances.”

  47. Ah well, it’s been explained but it keeps getting modded. So you’ll never know!!

  48. @ BERNARD

    As this is a non political polling site, perhaps you should frame your question about pollling and public opinion on taxation.

    As i understand it Labour are going to be issuing more information in the next few days about re-nationalisation. Perhaps a Labour Government will remove subsidies and make shares in companies reduce in value. Force them out of profitable business and take them over cheaply.

  49. CL 1945

    @” GB was dying in 1978-79 ”

    Yep-dying from the collapse of the Con. Trick known as The Social Contract”. Dying of the TUC’s desperate attempt to hold on the “The Going Rate” -and sod inflation. Dying of the Final Conflict-between Public Sector Union control of the UK Economy , and a Labour Government ( ……”a Labour Government” ) which had decided to face economic reality.

    I recollected it all a lot this morning as I watched the tv News.

  50. @WB

    Oh yeah. I found out quite early. Various kinds of luck involved in getting into Oxford for eggers. I’ve also seen how bad things can collide too…

1 2 3 4 5 6