The YouGov/Sunday Times poll this morning has topline voting intention figures of CON 49%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 3%. As with most other recent polls, it shows a very large Conservative lead, Labour creeping up slightly and the smaller parties being squeezed. This is the first time YouGov have shown the Lib Dems in single figures this year and the first time UKIP have been as low as 3% since early 2012.

Labour’s manifesto promises are, once again, individually popular, but overall the party’s platform is not. 65% thought a cap on rents was a good idea, 58% increasing taxes on those earning over £80,000, 49% the abolition of tuition fees, 46% the nationalisation of the National Grid, Royal Mail and railways. Asked about their policy offering overall however, by 50% to 25% people think Labour do not have a sensible plan for how they would run Britain.

By 59% to 22% people support the Conservatives’ aim of cutting net immigration to the “tens of thousands”. While a clear majority, this is substantially down from when we asked the same question in 2014 when 76% supported it. Only 25% of people thought that May would be able to hit the target, though again, it has changed significantly from 2014 when only 9% thought that Cameron could do it. By 59% to 28% people do NOT think that students should be included in the immigration target.

Finally, in the light of the CPS decisions this week there were some questions about limits on election spending. 77% of people think that there should be a spending limit at elections, and the Conservative party are perceived as being worse than the other parties at obeying the rules. 44% think the Tories often break spending rules at elections, compared to 24% for Labour, 19% for the Lib Dems, 24% for UKIP.

Full tabs are here.


409 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 49, LAB 31, LD 9, UKIP 3”

1 3 4 5 6 7 9
  1. @DANNY

    I’ve no issue with a PhD in Physics being a banker. A well paid job working with numbers and stats. The problem is someone with a good computer science degree from a good university working checkout at the local Tesco express 18 months after graduating.

  2. RMJI

    “I Was just pointing out that printing money does not produce or add to the deficit or debt. What it does is devalue the currency.”

    Perhaps there is some subtlety I don’t understand but I mean a government can spend more than it taxes. No borrowing is needed to do this as the money is created at will. There is no reason why the value of the currency should devalue in this case if the markets have faith in the spending. Infrastructure spending, for example, usually results in more productivity than its cost, so the markets might not perceive a decrease in value of the currency. Tax cuts to buy votes are different however and the markets might expect no productivity gain, devaluing the currency. This concept of value applies to deficit spending as much as any other spending. It seems very similar to a company issuing new shares to fund an expansion. What is wrong with that?

    Hyperinflation is usually associated with a supply side crash anyway not overspending; Zimbabwe being the obvious example.

  3. @CARFREW

    Sorry CARFREW, I hate to disagree with you because I like your posts, but running a deficit does not offset deflation, in fact quite the opposite can be true. Increasing the money supply is however inflationary. Both courses of action can have either desirable or undesirable consequences depending on the circs.

  4. @ Alberto

    Well, it really depends on how much; how flexible prices are; and whether, to borrow an oldfashioned Keynesian idea, there is, at the previaling price level, “unused capacity”. If there is, you may increase the volume of output. If there isn’t, you spark inflation, or a deterioration in the external balance, or both (inflation which, we’ve seen several times in the fairly recent past, are troublesome in and of itself and painful to eradicate). Current Labour Force stats for the UK suggest close to the highest ever level of labour force participation; that suggests that while there is scope for improvement through flexibility, the UK is near its full capacity and increased aggregate expenditure will just increase prices and/or suck in imports in the short term, with adverse medium term consequences.

  5. On the subject of degrees, my wife works in a large Call Centre here in Wales. Many of the call agents are fairly young and degree educated, eaarning barely above Living Wage, working shifts 24/7. Some have been there 4 years and more. They are stuck because there are too many people with degreees and far too few jobs that require them.

    To compound matters, in a lot of instances the team leaders and shift supervisors went to the same schools as them and left with no or few quals, started working there and worked their way up. Net result is they are in debt up to their eye-balls and earning less than their peers who didn’t go to uni, and cant get on because those ppeers occupy the job slots above them.

    To cap it all, the manager never went too uni either.

    And the only alternative is minimum waged jobs working in retail outlets.

    Quite frankly, the push to get more and more peopple to university in an econoimy that requires fewer and fewer graduates is ridiculous.

  6. Danny & Richard who posted

    “Also worth noting that it is the young that have not accepted Brexit and moved on…”

    All i said was most people, and i was talking about voters had moved on and wanted the Government to get on with it. I agree there are some who don’t want to move on, particularly the young but they are in an increasing minority IMO.

    Of course the Tories will be using Brexit in this election, it will help them gain marginals in the areas that matter.

  7. @Alberto “Keeping up with the comments here could be a full time job. :) As we’ve now moved on from the state of Labour, thanks to those who replied to my posts”

    Let me assure you this site never tires of either the sorry state of Labour nor Brexit, nor is it likely to for the next couple of years at least!

  8. If elections are won on economics, then the Tories will probably win with a very large majority. But given that they have increased national debt by £750 billion and it will continue increasing for several years, it will be very odd factor to win on.

    Yes obviously Brexit is a major issue, but that is about a lot of different issues, most of which voters will not have any real idea about, because Brexit is subject to a negotiating process. Brexit might cause short/medium term problems to the UK economy and increase national debt. Government might have to increase taxes and cut spending. But if people vote to continue a Tory Government to implement their version of Brexit, then they will have to accept all that it entails.

    This is going to be a very odd election. The Tories have made it Theresa May versus Jeremy Corbyn and so far the actual issues have only been looked at as a secondary issue to leadership. The Tories are apparently offering to build thousands of council houses to win votes in Labour areas, asking people to trust May over Corbyn to see that it happens. Also the Miliband energy price rise cap has been accepted by the Tories, when only two years ago it was a bad idea.

    I find this all very confusing and i am not sure voters will really know what they are voting for.

  9. northernruralmodeoman,
    “I’ve no issue with a PhD in Physics being a banker. A well paid job working with numbers and stats. The problem is someone with a good computer science degree from a good university working checkout at the local Tesco express 18 months after graduating.”

    I have issues with both. While physics requires maths, and bankers probably thoght that useful, what they probably wanted was nis intelligence, not 5 years spent learning physics. 5 years time wasted for the nation, and probably some industry could have used that expertise. He almost certainly illustrates the point that going to a prestige university is a meal ticket, but the actual knowledge is irrelevant.

    As to computer programmers in tesco, I expect this is unlikely because I gather it is a shortage area. However, someone like this might find no one is hiring, and if they are it will be the old game of always preferring someone with workplace experience

    RMJ1,
    ” running a deficit does not offset deflation, in fact quite the opposite can be true. Increasing the money supply is however inflationary”
    Any kind of debt increases the money supply. A debt is a promissary note similar to a bank note. It can be traded, and is.

  10. RICHARD

    Your later post actually made my point for me. Good for you for posting it despite it not helping your argument.

  11. @Andy

    We’re on the same page with this.

    It also highlights a Brexit argument. Many say we should not allow in low skilled workers but those with skills should be allowed, ergo our kids can do all the low skilled jobs while “Johnny foreigner” can come in and get the good jobs.

    We have a skilled educated workforce they just need relevant training and opportunity.

  12. Alec

    “It’s almost laughable”

    You may, I actually think it’s very clever. It helps to build TM’s image which is already riding high as the one leader with a positive rating (+15%).

  13. The Other Howard,
    “All i said was most people, and i was talking about voters had moved on and wanted the Government to get on with it”

    You mix two things together there which are not mixable. Most people probably do want the government to get on with it. Even I do. But that does not mean people have either accepted the decision or changed their view. How many Leave voters have moved on and are no longer interested in Brexit happening? ‘Most’ of them?

  14. @Danny

    Yes there is a shortage of “good” computer people. A degree doesn’t make you good.

    Also the problem in a fast moving area like ICT or Cyber, much of what you learn in a degree is useless and out of date.

    Being slightly cruel, my experience of interviewing graduates is that they are often ill prepared for work.

  15. @northernruralmodeoman “We have a skilled educated workforce they just need relevant training and opportunity.”

    I disagree we have an educated unskilled workforce!

    Skills are developed practicing trades (car mechanic, doctor etc). It was a stupid policy to try and get everyone to go and get theoretical degrees in media studies etc. What was required was colleges that were dedicated to producing skilled people for the workplace.

  16. BOROBOYINBATH

    “It’s about having the best people. Degrees might open doors and create opportunities but after that it’s down to the individual”

    Very sensible approach.

  17. @SEA CHANGE

    There are many skills- vocational , practical, interpersonal , life skills, PORROHMAN pointed out there is a lack of work ready skills. But the people are there , the aptitude is there, they just need training/ coaching.

  18. Now a polling issue.

    It seems to me this will be a tactical voting election. May has put up a big banner demanding voters vote tactically for her and is trying to concentrate all attention on Brexit. This will encourage remainers to also vote tactically, and is probably what is responsible for the shrinking Lib dem vote.

    Lib dems will vote tactically to help labour, but in those exceptional areas where libs stand a chance labour supporters just might vote tactically for the libs.

    So suppose that happens in 30 lib friendly constituencies. Libs might get 40% support in 1/20 of constituencies and nothing elsewhere. A national share of 2% yet 30 MPs to show for it. Meanwhile labour might gain some more centrist or even right supporters to boulster vaguely left areas it is in danger of losing. A 2% vote swap (probably rather more, 5-10%), but of people it could not otherwise reach. Could win them another 30 seats.

    Longer term, May has issued a challenge to the left to regroup under one flag.

  19. @R Huckle “I find this all very confusing and i am not sure voters will really know what they are voting for.”

    The answer is (and the Tory strategy) people are NOT voting for Corbyn based on the challenge that is ahead of the UK and Corbyn’s perceived ineptness (whether fair or not).

    I don’t see anything particularly positive in the Tory campaign, this is a safety and security election.

  20. @ANDY,

    I can’t help but agree, at least to some extent. I am the only one of my family who went to university. Neither of my children chose to go and both are “doing very nicely thank you.” I have prospered in a field completely unrelated to my degree. My wife, with no qualifications beyond O level, has arguably achieved even more. Basically it is horses for courses. If you need a degree for your chosen career path then go for it, but it is not the be all and end all.

  21. “There are many skills- vocational , practical, interpersonal , life skills, PORROHMAN pointed out there is a lack of work ready skills. But the people are there , the aptitude is there, they just need training/ coaching.”

    Well those could have been learned at a technical college along with your aforementioned benefits of a degree. Essentially they are now requiring two rounds of training rather than the one.

    So I maintain we should have technical colleges that the majority attend.

  22. Danny

    No meeting of minds on this i stick by what I said. I am a Leaver as you know, I expect brexit to happen in the way i want because i think TM thinks in the same way on that issue. So in this election I am more interested in other things. To me it’s fascinating to see the” nasty party” that the Tory party had being replaced by May’s move to the center ground. Very clever Tory campaugn so far. IMO of course.

  23. @NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN

    And to further compound matters, major major employer round here recruits its IT and engineering graduates from the Baltic states (apparently uni education is done in english there), on 3 year contracts for less than 20k pa.

    I also have a daughter who works overseas for a majorn german investment bank. She reckons the next big shift is banking and corporate legal services relocating firstly to Spain (as a stepping stone) then onwards to China, Thailand and the Philipines.

  24. May couldn’t have picked a better time to go to the polls. A year later and it might not look so rosey for her.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/15/jobs-market-will-suffer-a-brexit-slowdown-say-ey-item-club-experts

    Also reading how May’s planning rights of unpaid leave for carers and bereaved parents. If that was a Labour plan I’m pretty sure the CBI (as well as right wing rags) would be having a fit. However If you are on a low wage could you afford to take unpaid leave?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/14/labour-and-tories-set-to-woo-working-class-voters-with-new-policies

  25. @PETE

    If you’re on a high wage can you afford to take unpaid leave?

  26. @PETE

    If you’re on a high wage can you afford to take unpaid leave?

  27. Andy

    As a now retired IT man I saw IT being offshored/onshored for years. Increasingly IT became (relatively) less well paid and stable as staff were bought off the shelf from India and Europe fully trained and for less salary cost. I was made redundant 3 or 4 times before packing it in.

    Just a quick thought on Uni pros/cons I see some places are now
    stating the number of alumni that actually get jobs and the salary they can command. This can only help students decide whether spending money on a course is sensible or not and should be compulsory in my view.

  28. I run an ICT and Security department.

    Modern apprenticeships are fantastic at getting highly skilled and highly motivated people quickly. But I always pay the apprentices the market rate for what they are doing and I always make sure there contracts are permanent subject to passing exams.

    The industry I work in can’t take foreign nationals easily, we deal with lots of export controlled material. So UK all the way.

    Some of my staff joined straight from school have done part time degrees, some have done apprenticeships, some joined based on experience and skills and some joined as graduates.

    From there it becomes a meritocracy with pay based on market rate for the skills and experience.

  29. @Pete – the unpaid carers rights are being heavily pumped in the friendly press outlets, but oddly enough, the fact that it is unpaid isn’t being flagged up at all in many of the reports.

    It’s laughable, as a meaningful central point of a ‘workers rights’ manifesto, and shows just how divorced from reality May is.

    The CBI need not worry – few people can afford to forego a years pay, whatever the reason. I think if this was a Labour policy they wouldn’t be attacked from the CBI – only from people wondering what planet they were on if they think this helps working people.

  30. TOH

    I have to agree re Tory campaign. Move to centre is a very clever move( and will be useful after Brexit). TM always seemed intent on this shift, but polls and Corbyn left bias on Labour Party provided the confidence and opportunity.

    I expect more centrist policies and emphasis when Tories release manifesto tomorrow. I also expect the Tories to then really ramp up the anti left and anti Corbyn attack.

  31. Interesting posts about the numbers of Remain voters who now favour ‘getting on’ with Brexit. Which leaves maybe 25% of voters who want Britain to remain in the EU.

    Combine that with the declining importance of Brexit as an issue ( people are increasingly bored by it ), and the emphasis placed upon this issue by the Lib Dems seems ever more wrong-headed.

    If you then combine that again with the very low percentage of people who understand the difference between ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit, and you are fishing in a pretty small pond.

    So the Farron/Clegg obsession with this issue is undermining the potential LibDem vote.

    Throw in legalising cannabis, and the poor performance of the LDs becomes explicable.

    With Labour in disarray on the left of British Politics, the LDs had an historic opportunity to appeal to the sensible, caring, thinking middle ground. Instead they have opted for hysteria.

  32. Millie

    I agree i have been amazed at the way the LD’s have missed an opportunity to make a sizeable recovery. I think there campaign has been really poor.

  33. @Carfrew

    “No they can’t! If graduates are earning less of a premium, while they have these tuition debts they didn’t used to have, then you have to offset the earnings gain against the rising costs.”

    The researchers working on these fields are aware that this is happening, Carfrew. It isn’t something that only you have noticed. Indeed, it’s the drive to understand the impact of fees and loans that is freeing up a lot of the funding required to do the research. I think you can be reasonably assured that this is factored in.

    “I could introduce you to quite a lot of recent graduates who work in coffee shops and bars”

    so could I. There has never been a period in the UK ever where you could not find graduates doing jobs for which a degree is not necessary. This does not demonstrate anything very much.

    “because of the lack of traditional career paths”

    But that isn’t the reason. Career decision-making is *a lot* more complex than that.

    ““Gap between graduate and non-graduate wages ‘shows signs of waning’: IFS says substantial difference in earnings is likely to decrease in future as more people pursue higher education””

    ‘Signs of waning’ is not the same as ‘there is no graduate premium’. The article begins: ” University graduates continue to enjoy higher earnings than their non-graduate peers, but there are signs the gap may soon shrink”. Lots of conditionals there, including the key point that the IFS have *not* yet found a reduction in the graduate premium but that there’s a chance they might as long as you follow the intepretation of a Guardian journalist who would rather not be covering education research.

    “You’re probably not earning that “graduate premium” you were told about”

    http://www.cityam.com/246526/youre-probably-not-earning-graduate-premium-you-were-told

    The report was a puff piece for the IG that cherry-picked the only public data it could find to support its argument, even ignoring more recent datasets from time series data that was used as evidence as they broke the IG hypothesis. It does not have value. A lot of people were rather disappointed with the hitherto rather good IG over that piece.

    Likewise, the BestCourses report was a marketing piece designed to drive traffic to their site.

    You do finally cite some actual good, groundbreaking research from Anna Vignoles but the problem Vignoles and her team had is that the dataset she had access to lacked some crucial demographic factors allowing them to do all of the necessary analysis of variables. It was a very important pathfinder for some more thorough research to be done in the future though. Vignoles is very much of the front rank in these matters.

    I mentioned Green and Henseke before – they have found that the average ‘premium’ for graduates has held up but that the bell curve is becoming more pronounced. At the top end more graduates are earning much higher premiums. But there may be a longer tail and that there may be a more severe penalty for those graduates who do not succeed – for a range of reasons ranging from their own personal failings to sheer bad luck.

    However, this group of graduates with difficulties in the labour market are not proportionately large nor are they representative and whilst it is right to be concerned about them and to do what can be done it is not right to hold them up as typical.

  34. @Robin

    “Chris’s long list of caveats missed what is probably the most important. That the sort of person that does a degree is the sort of person more likely to earn more anyway.”

    Not so fast my friend. Entrepreneurialism is linked to higher earnings and university entry does not screen for that.

    If you have a genius, surefire business idea, or you are lavishly talented in the arts or sport, going to university is unlikely to impact on your earnings.

  35. NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN (the longest name ever), well they’ve more chance, though I’m not sure much how the boss will like it.

    ALEC, exactly its all hot air and bull. TBH it could’ve come straight from Corbyn’s mouth.

  36. Digging into the data, I found something that I expected: About 1/3 of Tories seem to think “Well, we break spending rules but we’re also pretty sure everyone else breaks them as well.”

    The other fascinating bit: If Labour splits, the “two Labours” have about 5% more support than Labour does now (most of it coming off of the Tories). Granted it’s with two options on the ballot, but that looks like a good starting point for how many “lent votes” the Tories have.

  37. @Andy

    “On the subject of degrees, my wife works in a large Call Centre here in Wales. Many of the call agents are fairly young and degree educated, eaarning barely above Living Wage, working shifts 24/7. Some have been there 4 years and more. They are stuck because there are too many people with degreees and far too few jobs that require them.”

    It is wholly, completely and entirely wrong to say that there are “too many people with degreees and far too few jobs that require them” and anyone who says that is genuinely badly misinformed. We are badly undersupplied with graduates in a whole range of sectors (certainly not just science and engineering).

    However, the problem is that the opportunities are largely in big cities (not just London) and if people who don’t realise that or cannot or *will not* access them, they will struggle.

    A good deal of the problem is that this issue has become so politicised and so there are a lot of things that people say that are not true and are driven by political beliefs.

  38. @GB

    “Just a quick thought on Uni pros/cons I see some places are now stating the number of alumni that actually get jobs and the salary they can command.”

    It is in fact now a requirement that if this data exists and is sufficiently statistically robust to be cited, it must be displayed.

  39. The Other Howrad,
    ” To me it’s fascinating to see the” nasty party” that the Tory party had being replaced by May’s move to the center ground. Very clever Tory campaugn so far. IMO of course.”

    To my mind what you say is vindication of my argument that even if a left wing labour leader proves to be unelectable, he might achieve more left wing policies put into practice because of his influence on his opponents chosen policies than a right wing labour leader would have done. Corbyn has pushed the conservatives to the left.

  40. Not really polling relevant, but I’m really enjoying the discussion of the merits (or otherwise) of a degree. Here’s my observations, as a University researcher of about 25 years standing.

    People should be very clear what they want from a degree before they do it, and shouldn’t be given unrealistic expectations about job prospects. Unfortunately, good guidance is not easy to come by, since the Universities themselves (at least the upper reaches) are heavily into self-promotion nowadays, having been forced down the commercial road with tuition fees. One of the factors in many University league tables is employability, so that again forces Universities to make efforts in that direction, rather than the direction of ‘academia’ which is what many of the employees, and surely at least some of the students, are motivated by.

    So we end up in a situation where lecturers and researchers (in non-vocational subjects at least) are trying to be experts at something they are not – that is the commercial world – and failing to do the job they are better at – which hopefully is widening education horizons.

    Most of us would like students to study because they’re interested in the subject, rather than because it’ll get them a better job, which is possibly a false hope anyway. It’s asking a lot of someone to give up earning potential and take out large loans to study a non-vocational degree, but best that they’re aware that this is what they are doing from the start, rather than find out too late. The sad thing is that this will put off many people with great potential, but that’s the system we’ve got in place now, and it’s not likely to change in the near future.

  41. Danny

    I think you have got that totally wrong. I think May is pushing the Tories to the center, at least that’s how it is meant to appear to voters. In doing so she has adopted some interventionist policies which I deplore.Corbyn is just destroying the Labour party IMO.

  42. Millie,
    “Interesting posts about the numbers of Remain voters who now favour ‘getting on’ with Brexit. Which leaves maybe 25% of voters who want Britain to remain in the EU.”

    People are not being asked what they ‘favour’, but what they would be prepared to accept. Not at all the same.

    If we start getting some polls saying that 60% favour remain, even if 75% would currently put up with Leaving, I think some would start changing their minds about that.

  43. @TOH

    Indeed.

    The obvious way forward was to harvest the disgruntled Remainers, many of whom are liberally minded centrist types, and to capitalise on the clear unpopularity of Corbyn and the potential implosion of the Labour Party. Add on a few UKIP protest votes, and, above all, appeal to those who vote Tory but are not comfortable with being a ‘nasty toff’.

    In other words, occupy the centre/centre-left vacuum, and start talking sensibly and coherently about options going forward.

    Instead, the LDs have left all those in that great block of people with little choice but to go with a moderate Tory programme and ‘safe pairs of hands’ in May and Hammond.

    I have to say JC is playing something of a blinder by comparison, as he is calm and appears to be enjoying himself. Meanwhile Clegg is doing a reasonable impersonation of David Icke on the point of tears…

    Much has been made, rightly, of the UKIP drift to Cons, but I suspect there has been some LD bleeding to Lab, as a result of their inept campaign.

  44. @Andy

    Siemens are looking for IT grads in Freystat in the Czech Republic.

  45. Danny

    As always there are more than one way of looking at things.

    The Labour Party ( against the political instincts of many of its experienced MPs) has allowed itself to be dragged off to the left.

    This allows the Tories to attract voters from the centre as well as the right. Perhaps Corbyn will claim credit for helping the Tories to secure a big majority and 5 more years.

    History suggests that Labour loses badly when it goes to far left( I see Corbyn has appointed a strong Union man who was a member of the Communist party until last December – another open goal!).

    Corbyn ( IMO) has been a disaster for the Labour Party and will set the party back for years after he leaves the stage.

  46. @ DANNY @ TOH – I think TOH has it correct

    The recent ComRes poll asked about party/leader views on a Left/Right Scale. Link here, go to page 20+
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Labour-Party-manifesto-poll_GE2017_Daily-Mirror.pdf

    ™ is considered slightly to the left of her party. JC is considered to the left of his party. Combined this gives ™ more of the centre ground as people slowly adjust their perception of the parties. The shifts aren’t huge as it takes a long time to shift perception but change of leader offers the opportunity to make a small perception shift and slightly redefine a party’s image

    Also you can see the difficulty of a Progressive Alliance. Where 5 is the mid-point.
    LD voters view JC at 1.95 on a left-right scale (mean for LAB party is 3.03).
    LAB voters view TF at 4.92 (mean for LD party is 4.37)

    Simply put the ideological difference between where LD voters view LAB leader and where LAB voters view LD leader is very large and asking voters from one party to vote for the other is a big ask.

    There is a huge difference between a beer socialist and a champagne socialist!

  47. Millie,
    “So the Farron/Clegg obsession with this issue is undermining the potential LibDem vote.”

    I find this a very interesting question. The libs started to rise in the polls because they became the only people standing out against Brexit. I think this issue rescued them from oblivion in the local elections. However as soon as Labour started to come on board, with pretty much the same policy of thinking again if negotiations go badly, then an inevitable switch by voters to labour has begun. May has called for tactical voting, and voters are responding.

    Contrary to your view, I think Brexit continues to drive most voters. So they will vote conservative despite misgivings if they want hard Brexit and vote Labour as the only big party even slightly opposing it.

    The libs adoption of Remain gave them a reprieve and may still get them more MPs. But their vote share will fall because of tactical voting. If they had a leave policy now, they would be getting as much new support as UKIP and probably the party would be wiped out.

    I guess what happens at the next general election will depend upon events. It could go all the way from conservative landslide to labour landslide with liberal opposition. This is a very very high stakes issue. May has called an election now because nothing whatever has happened yet and everything remains undecided. Its almost all aspirations rather than facts.

    I think May is campaigning for Corbyn, and her campaign to attract UKIP voters has driven Remain voters to him. I’d guess the voter tallies are in a process of realignment.

  48. Trevor Warne,
    I heard an american political commentator recently, some sort of professor, observing that there is no such thing as the centre. It is defined purely by reference to being between one group called left and one called right. He argued that there can never be a centre ground policy, it is purely a perception based on what the right and left are saying. The further left labour go, the further left the centre goes too. If the right are then dragged to the left, surely the left is winning the debate and then the policy implementation, whoever wins the election.

    “There is a huge difference between a beer socialist and a champagne socialist”

    Yes. The model breaks down because it is not a two way binary divide. There can be three corners. Or more. Champagne socialists are not half way between Corbyn and May. (or is Corbyn Champagne, perhaps Farage Beer?)

  49. So anyone like an opinion as to when we are likely to get the Rogue or Outlier poll. The one that shows the Tories on 55, or Labour on 38, and everyone rushes to scorn.
    Just as in America with October Shock, we normally have some poll out of kilter.

  50. Danny

    I am sure that TM will take comfort that Corbyn helped her win the election by driving the Tory party to adopt some left of centre policies.

    There is no evidence from the current polls that voters are deserting the Tories, although there is limited evidence that some LD are moving to Labour.

    The problem for Labour is that there are not many more potential LD converts( in the right areas) to affect the result. Also there are still UKIP voters who are very likely to move to the Tories( in the right areas for the Tories and especially
    where UKIP do not put up a candidate).

    Based on the polls, TM seems to be holding most of the cards, and has most of the key ones still to play if needed)

1 3 4 5 6 7 9