The YouGov/Sunday Times poll this morning has topline voting intention figures of CON 49%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 3%. As with most other recent polls, it shows a very large Conservative lead, Labour creeping up slightly and the smaller parties being squeezed. This is the first time YouGov have shown the Lib Dems in single figures this year and the first time UKIP have been as low as 3% since early 2012.

Labour’s manifesto promises are, once again, individually popular, but overall the party’s platform is not. 65% thought a cap on rents was a good idea, 58% increasing taxes on those earning over £80,000, 49% the abolition of tuition fees, 46% the nationalisation of the National Grid, Royal Mail and railways. Asked about their policy offering overall however, by 50% to 25% people think Labour do not have a sensible plan for how they would run Britain.

By 59% to 22% people support the Conservatives’ aim of cutting net immigration to the “tens of thousands”. While a clear majority, this is substantially down from when we asked the same question in 2014 when 76% supported it. Only 25% of people thought that May would be able to hit the target, though again, it has changed significantly from 2014 when only 9% thought that Cameron could do it. By 59% to 28% people do NOT think that students should be included in the immigration target.

Finally, in the light of the CPS decisions this week there were some questions about limits on election spending. 77% of people think that there should be a spending limit at elections, and the Conservative party are perceived as being worse than the other parties at obeying the rules. 44% think the Tories often break spending rules at elections, compared to 24% for Labour, 19% for the Lib Dems, 24% for UKIP.

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409 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 49, LAB 31, LD 9, UKIP 3”

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  1. @Carfrew

    “He was elected in 1951 however he had a lower share of the vote than Labour and only got a majority because of a total collapse to 2.5% of the Liberal Party!”


    Well yes, because many peeps might still have been happy with the policies Labour delivered. Despite the challenges and problems of currency set too high initially. But nonetheless Churchill as still regarded by enough people as a peacetime leader to get elected. No surprise, if you can handle the demands of war, you can probably handle the stresses of, you know, peace. But you have to engage with the possibility it may well have been the policies.

  2. @Carfrew

    The latest data shows that on average there still is a graduate premium. However, that is on average.

  3. I’ve been mulling over the leadership vs Policy vs narrative debate.

    I think today shows the problem labour have in convincing great chunks of the electorate that their platform is credible.

    2 little snippits.

    An extra 10bn for NHS ICT, just plays to the magic money tee narrative and looks reactive. Whether it’s new or old money or what it just feeds the narrative.

    McDonells statement at BAE. If the boss doesn’t take a 7m pay cut then no more BAE contracts. Well that’s the end of the trident replacement as BAE in Barrow is the only submarine building yard. So either he doesn’t know they are the only submarine builders or has no intention of building any new submarines.

    For every good thing they try to do it seems they feed the opposition narrative.

  4. @The Sheep

    That’s looking at earnings for peeps in their forties though, who will have missed much of the zero-hour/internship thing, plus recent cuts hitting numerous careers…

  5. Sorry presse submit too early…

    I think this is the reason why labour can’t quite narrow the gap, and ultimately seem to be playing to a core

  6. Some of these >50%, 400 Seat plus Con predictions are pretty wide of the mark in my opinion. The average over the last few weeks is 46-47 and labour have rebounded to 30-32%. Personally I still think there will be some narrowing (some Remain Con to LD or a little UKIP swing back rather than to LAB). There are too many LAB voters who will not vote CON under Any Circumstances and will just abstain. I think it will end up 44-29-12-4-3. That would lead to CON 365-375, LAB 190-210, LIB 8-10, SNP 52-55. Which is a 55-85 majority (I would say prob 70ish).

  7. Porrohman

    Sure, if Labour submit to what the press want, then they won’t suffer facile money tree attacks. But then to the peeps now in charge at Labour, and the membership, who don’t agree with the liberal policies Nulab and the press want, what’s the point of just giving into the press? Especially when polling shows specific policies to be popular.

  8. Keeping up with the comments here could be a full time job. :) As we’ve now moved on from the state of Labour, thanks to those who replied to my posts.

  9. Merkel ‘s CDU appears to have beaten the SD convincingly in the SD’s heartland of North Rhine – Westphalia. No sign yet of the Brexiter hoped for defeat for Merkel in the autumn national elections.

  10. @carfrew

    I don’t think it needs to be pandering to the press. It doesn’t look cohesive and planned.

    BAE employ lots of people in traditional labour seats. Nothing needed to be said, it’s implied without picking on the only submarine builder in the U.K. At a time when we desperately need more hulls in the water

  11. @Porroman

    Yes, I didn’t contest the BAE thing. No doubt Labour have their issues. I’m just sticking to the particular aspect about whether to adopt media’s favoured policy to avoid negative press.

  12. @AR55,

    those figures you give of 44/29 would give Labour 185 seats, which is far more realistic than 210.

  13. Hireton

    Indeed, if the exit polls are correct, it is a big win for Merkel.

  14. @BERNARD

    That would be at the bottom end of the estimate. It really depends how well they can distribute their vote, I Think they may hold on well in London and other Cities so 29% may keep more seats than UNS would imply and could keep it above 200.

  15. Alberto
    Have you ever tried explaining that sort of stuff on the doorstep?

  16. Sorrell,
    “I think this is because of the lack of a LD resurgence. If remain/leave was the main determining factor then those who are strongly remain would go for LD as they are the party that specifically is trying to appeal to remain voters.”

    I would assume that anyone who is Remain would choose to vote for the party most likely to direct events in that direction. I think everyone here believes labour will have more MPs after this next election than the libs, indeed that the SNP will have more MPs than the libs. So the question must be, is it more advantageous to get in a labour MP or a lib one. Apart from that, most people will be faced with con and lab being in the first two places last time (especially if they assume UKIPpers will switch to con). In that case, it is likely a wasted vote to vote lib.

    People are asked who they plan to vote for, not who they support. The system means a tactical voter has to go labour to defeat con, far more often than go lib.

  17. the Other Howard,
    “I thinks it’s relatively simple. It appears that most people accept we are leaving and have moved on.”

    Really? The conservative party has its entire campaign based upon them being the party to carry out Brexit. They do not seem to think we have moved on.

    I commented above with particular direction to anthony Wells, that Yougov seem to have stopped posting polling on the’ is it right or wrong to leave the EU’ question. If they have stopped asking this question, I imagine it means they have stopped being paid to ask this question. Which suggests someone does not want to know the answer. the last answer I saw was pretty much 50/50.

    Brexit has hardly started and we shall not leave the EU unless it is succesfully concluded. We are having this election because May could not get through Brexit without a 5 year mandate. She did say so. All to play for, howard.

  18. DANNY
    If they have stopped asking this question, I imagine it means they have stopped being paid to ask this question.

    Or it could, of course, still be asked regularly but whoever is paying for it does not want the answers to be put in the public domain.

  19. 44-29-12-4-3 would give a majority of 108 and that is excluding the loss of any SNP seats.

  20. Danny

    Whether it is right or wrong to leave the EU is one thing – accepting the result and moving on is another. I voted remain, would have preferred we had stayed, but accept the result and moved on. That I believe is the majority position.

  21. Evening All.
    Hello to you.
    After 1947 Churchill allowed Lord Woolton to move the party into the centre ground by accepting welfare state as created by Attlee, together with mixed economy and then massive housing programme under Harold MacMillan.
    Labour was clearly split after the self indulgent civil war between Gaitskell v Bevan; while Attlee refused to go until 1955 as he hated Morrison.
    The 1951 GE also saw Labour piling up huge majorities in their heartland seats, but falling back in the emerging economy areas.

    Hello to you; your question yesterday about the impact of policy on voting is interesting. I think voters are swayed by competence more by a list of policies, esp in unstable times.

  22. @Porrohman


  23. J McD says polls show Labour are going to win.

    Some on here claim that voters will flock to Corbyn but the polls are not showing it yet.

    And all this under a heading of the You Gov poll 49/31/9/3.

    I cannot see any significant shift in the polls and surely anything else is just wistful thinking.

  24. @ Danny

    They no longer ask the question because of the conspiracy to get us out of the EU.

  25. @Pete B

    “Have you ever tried explaining that sort of stuff on the doorstep?”


    Lol, some of it – e.g. the idea that if the state runs a surplus it forces the private sector to run a deficit (unless money comes in externally) – is sort of the realm of Modern Monetary Theory and MMT is relatively new even for BoE and ECB. Even a Nobel Laureate like Krugman struggled with it!!

    Without going into it, if you think about it Pete, finding magic money trees, easy ways of making lots of money, is a common pastime and summat individuals, businesses and governments achieve quite often. (It can go wrong too. Deregulating the banks was a magic money tree, until…)

  26. My magic money tree is called Betfair. :-)

  27. @Andy T

    I know a few labour memebers and some honestly believe that they are heading for a majority. It’s generally people relatively new to politics.

    Whoever, here in NE Somerset they are struggling for canvassers and despite forcing an election for the local Parish Council failed to find any candidates.

  28. Chrislane1945,
    “I think Lib Dems will fare worse in the GE than polls are showing with most LD voters from 2015 going to Tories.”

    the yougov poll says 20% will go conservative, 10% labour, 42% lib and 24% dont know. The follow up to the dont knows asking their current leaning says that of the uncertain ones 7% of them will go tory. 22% labour, 19%lib and 52% still dont know.

    What will happen to the committed lib ones if they are faced with deciding their vote on leave/remain, I dont know, we shall see. My guess is they will choose tactically as have UKIP supporters.

    Re Corbyn, I see that 2015 labour voters do not supprt him as leader 2:1. However, amongst current labour supporters its about 50/50. The party support base has changed towards people who like him. Or they have changed their minds in his favour.

  29. @Chrislane

    Yep, Tories had to accept the policies to get elected. Has there ever been a time since when people didn’t favour welfare and the NHS? Clearly popular policies sufficient to triumph over Churchill and anyone frankly. They may want certain aspects of welfare reigned in, but don’t wanna ditch it. (Especially banking!!) Those in power have to enact liberal changes to these institutions without being fully upfront about it quite often. Superficially they seek to reassure.

    I think beyond a certain point, Labour tend to lack a proper vision, even old Labour, about how to best go beyond the basics.

  30. @Pete B

    Well indeed, that’s one way, if you have an approach where you have some kind of advantage beyond the norm…

  31. @ MANICBEANCOUNTER – big fan!

    I hope you don’t mind if I post a link to your latest article that covers the Brexit dilemma for Labour and highlights how vulnerable they have left the traditional LAB heartlands. The LDEM hopes to gain huge chunks of Remain voters seems to be melting and LAB will probably keep most of their London seats as a result but as you highlight the big seat numbers are in the Midlands/North/Wales – who generally voted Leave and will be very confused by LAB’s Brexit message – easy pickings for CON to grab UKIP converts, ensure good turn out from their faithful voters and create abstentions in LAB voters. That’s how you get to 430+ seats!

    Great article, thank you. Link to Kevin Marshall’s site here:

  32. @Danny

    “I would assume that anyone who is Remain would choose to vote for the party most likely to direct events in that direction.”


    Well I dunno. I mean, if I were minded to vote, and to vote remain, neither of which are the case, but anyway, I don’t think I could bring myself to vote LD after the way they treated their voters.

    We all know parties may have to u-turn to some extent, but there surely have to be some limits. Clearly there may be quite a few who agree. Look too in Scotland, where peeps couldn’t side with Labour any more after siding with Tories.

    Similarly post Brexit Tories knew they had to massively change tack or else electoral oblivion beckoned for them too…

  33. TW

    Thanks for this . Very interesting and informative.

    I just cannot see traditional Labour voters who want Brexit sticking with Labour.

    I guess most will just not bother to vote at all which still leaves Labour vulnerable in marginal seats( especially as UKIP voters will largely move over to Tory).

  34. david West,
    ” I voted remain, would have preferred we had stayed, but accept the result and moved on”

    The problem is that it isnt an issue like most others. it is difficult for the Uk to leave/join/leave/join each time a new party takes power, wheras they can mess with tax rates as they please. It is not an issue where voters can shrug and wait for the next election.

    Party support has polarised leave=conservative and remain=labour around 4:1 for each party last time I saw this polled.

  35. A bit of a diversion, but noticing the AV referendum tag at the side there got me to wondering, what if that referendum had been won, and this election was being fought on that particular AV system, anyone have any inkling as to what sort of result the current polls would produce, how much of a difference in projected seats it would have produced?

  36. CHRISLANE1945

    I don’t dispute that competence is more important than policy on the doorstep but I think policy is more important to the activists. I think the left of the membership has collectively chosen to fight for what they believe in, even if it means certain defeat in the short term. Only time wil tell if this is self indulgent or inspired.

  37. Ashcroft asked the question if we had all moved on from Brexit in his 40000 survey 27april to 1 May

    Q.43 Which of the following statements comes closest to your view even if you don’t agree with any of them entirely?

    I voted for Britain to leave the EU at the referendum and I now want Brexit to happen as soon as possible 48%

    I voted for Britain to remain in the EU at the referendum, but the result to leave the EU must be honoured and we need to get on with it 25%

    I voted for Britain to remain in the EU at the referendum and would still like to prevent Brexit from happening if at all possible 29%

    His survey had more remainers than leavers, so bear that in mind, but the answer is half of the remain voters have moved on and the other half have not.

    25% does not win first past the post elections, but it can still have an impact in heavily remain seats.

  38. Danny

    I sympathise – but in the end one either respects a referendum result or one doesn’t. People voted in the knowledge that the government had accepted that the result would prevail. I accept that there are many who would prefer a re-run but they ain’t going to get one

  39. Probably worth pointing out that the

    “I voted for Britain to remain in the EU at the referendum and would still like to prevent Brexit from happening if at all possible”

    rises to 43% in Scotland
    39% in London

    7% of them plan to vote SNP
    25% Lib Dem
    41% Labour
    15% Tory

    So I expect good news for Labour and the Lib Dems in London, and for the SNP in Scotland, with the Tories faring worse than expected in both places due to the remain impact.

  40. Seems a bit odd in that Ashcroft poll that there was no ‘I voted for Britain to leave the EU but would now prefer Brexit to be delayed until a good deal is achieved/ no longer want it to happen’ option. May very well be a small minority but the lack of a statement that describes a position in which someone voted for Brexit with some subsequent concerns rather skews the results.

  41. @REIVER97

    It’s very hard to say what would have happened with AV but I think we wouldn’t be having the election as Ed Miliband would be PM. There would be a permanent Left-Centre Left Coalition in Government.JC would still be a backbencher as Miliband would have won in 2015 with LD/SNP/Green alliance backing him up. Brexit wouldn’t have happened either and likely TM wouldn’t even be Tory Leader.

  42. Trevor Warne,
    “I hope you don’t mind if I post a link to your latest article that covers the Brexit dilemma for Labour”

    The article observes that even before Brexit Labour had lost guaranteed support of what was once its core vote. I fancy Brexit is simply an aside to this situation, which has been proceeding for some time. The Corbyn/right split reflects the party’s dilemma. This will continue after Brexit.

    In the meanwhile, the article says that labour voters were 2:1 in favour of remain, but argues labours traditional core was 2:1 against. Interesting, but how does that help labour? The article argues the party has to go leave in order to win them back, but if they had already departed from labour, Brexit is merely a sideshow and positioning on this will neither guarantee them now nor in the future.

    Meanwhile, labour current declared voters are 4:1 in favour of Remain. A hard leave policy is exceedingly likely to destroy the party utterly, since determined Leave supporters would stay conservative and Remainers go liberal. Their better hope on the bald figures is hard remain.

    They seem to be trying a middle course, arguing a lib vote is a wasted vote for a Remainer which will only help the conservatives win more seats. Meanwhile they are not opposing Leaving, only if it cannot be succesfully concluded. This should meet the criterion of any Remainers willing to go with the majority, who are the group most likely to accept a reasonable compromise.

    Labour’s avoiding the Brexit issue in campaigning is interesting. I think they may be saving it for a last minute push. Conservatives have thus far had little to say about anything except Brexit.

  43. Also worth noting that it is the young that have not accepted Brexit and moved on…

    18-24’s – 44% still want to overturn it
    25-34 – 38% still want to overturn it

    Will it encourage them to actually turn out and vote this time? I suspect it might, the Brexit result was a major shock to them. So if there are surprises on the night, the turnout amongst the under 35’s will be one area to watch.

  44. RMJI

    I don’t see the problem. All money is issued as a debt ultimately redeemable as tax and as you say has a value only equal to what someone will give you for it. If your productivity grows the value of each currency unit need not fall. Your foreign investors can still buy as much with their pounds as before. Why would the value fall? In fact if your productivity was growing and you didn’t run a deficit the value of your currency would grow as you could buy more stuff with each unit. Obviously the foreign economy is probably growing too, so everything is relative and far more complex than my simplistic example but the principle remains.

  45. carfrew

    ” Look too in Scotland, where peeps couldn’t side with Labour any more after siding with Tories.”

    The idea [which follows logically from, “peeps” taken such an odd attitude] that Labour should have altered their opposition to independence, just because the Tories also opposed it, seems as daft as criticising me for supporting Arsenal because Corbyn does.

    I’m hardly likely to change my allegiance to Spurs because of that fact.

  46. CPFC absolutely tonked Hull and are staying up.


    Now if only the Labour party had Zaha on the wing…

  47. NICKP.
    I was there when Bert Head took Palace up in 1969 after a 4-2 win over Charlton I think. Holmesdale Road End Glad All Over.

  48. @Paul

    “The idea [which follows logically from, “peeps” taken such an odd attitude] that Labour should have altered their opposition to independence, just because the Tories also opposed it, seems as daft as criticising me for supporting Arsenal because Corbyn does.

    I’m hardly likely to change my allegiance to Spurs because of that fact”


    Lol, hello again Paul!

    First of all, The issue numerous of our Scots friends have assured us, wasn’t that Labour opposed Independence, but that they joined forces with Tories in the process.

    (You’ll note they didn’t join forces with Tories in the EU ref…)

    Secondly, I didn’t recommend a course of action for Labour anyway. Just noted the VI effects of certain decisions.

    Thirdly, your allegiance to Spurs is obviously a different thing. Not had your football analogies for a while…

  49. Richard,
    “25% does not win first past the post elections, but it can still have an impact in heavily remain seats.”

    That would be 25% of all voters, presumably, not after discounting ‘will not votes’. Conservatives are only on 35% of all voters, which grossed up to 49% only after discounting the ‘dont know’ and ‘will not vote’ (this yougove survey). I can only guess, but I would think the ones who still have firm convictions about Brexit would be the ones determined to vote now, so the proportion would also gross up as part of the ones expected to vote.

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