ORB’s weekly poll in the Sunday Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 7%(-1). The changes since last week are by themselves insignificant, though it’s worth noting that the Labour share of 32% is the highest they’ve managed in any poll so far in the campaign. Precise fieldwork dates are not available yet, but the Telegraph’s write up says it was at least partially before the Labour manifesto leak.

Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2), GRN 2%(nc). Again, the changes are small, but reflect a narrowing of the lead and the highest Labour score of the campaign so far. The Tory lead is still extremely large, but it appears to be getting a little smaller. Once again, fieldwork for this poll started on Tuesday, so would have been mostly before the Labour manifesto leak. Tabs for that are here.

A third poll from ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 48%(-2), LAB 30%(+5), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 5%(-2). The narrowing is much sharper here, but that’s because it’s a different time scale: ComRes’s previous poll was conducted straight after the election was called when most polls were giving the Tories a twenty-plus point lead, so the changes here are echoing the decline from twenty-point leads to leads in the mid-to-high teens that we’ve already seen from other companies. Fieldwork here was Wednesday to Friday.

Overall the pattern seems to be a slight narrowing of the Tory lead, but it’s a case of a truly humongous lead becoming merely a towering one: a lead of fourteen to eighteen points will still deliver a very hefty majority. The election also seems to be becoming more and more of a two horse race. UKIP’s support fell sharply at the start of the campaign and only seems to have gotten worse since then and while many (including me!) expected the Liberal Democrats to increase their support during the campaign, it has yet to happen. If anything, Lib Dem support seems to be being further squeezed.

Still to come tonight we have the YouGov/Sunday Times poll. We’ve also had an ICM poll every weekend of the campaign so far (either for Robert Peston’s show or the Sun on Sunday), but I’ve no idea whether we will have one this week or not. I’m not around tonight, so will update on any other polls that emerge tomorrow morning.


176 Responses to “Saturday night polls from ORB, Opinium and ComRes”

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  1. “Labour has a manifesto which promises a huge increase in spending and many people are at best doubtful that it will be properly costed.”

    ——–

    Prolly won’t be a focus in the liberal media, and I wonder how labour will make the case because it seems counter-intuitive to liberals, but increasing govt. spending can more than pay for itself because tends to stimulate the economy, leading to more tax and less welfare. Conversely cuts can wind up being associated with choking off growth and increasing costs, as we saw last term.

  2. Love him or loathe him, you have to admit Corbyn is fighting a pretty decent campaign. Especially given that he’s doing it not only against the massed strength of the Tories, but against a large section of his own MPs … and the ones who are willing to lend a hand are generally more trouble than they’re worth.

    I suspect Labour getting to the giddy, oxygen deprived heights of 32% in the polls will trigger a new bout of derangement in the Blairites.

  3. Carfrew – “but increasing govt. spending can more than pay for itself because tends to stimulate the economy”

    Careful. It depends entirely on what you are spending on. If you are building brand-new infrastructure to relieve proven bottlenecks, then sure, easing those bottlenecks will make GDP increase (with accompanying increases in tax revenue).

    But simply nationalising existing infrastructure won’t do that. The amount of infratructure stays the same, all you are doing is transferring tax money to various French and German entities as compensation when you nationalise…

  4. The poll just posted by Candy looks like it could be closing in on what will happen on the day.

    The size of the final majority will depend on how much of the Labour vote (if any) drifts to LD or Tories.

    As the poll stands it would generate a similar majority to 1983 – 142 seats.

    An erosion of Labour to say 25% (I don’t think it will go lower) with 3% each going to LD and Tories would push that up to 228 seats.

    I can’t wait to see that exit poll on the 8th!!

  5. It does seem amazing that Labour are around 30% when Corbyn is such a drag on them. When he speaks, he generally comes across as very reasonable and I can see the attraction of some Labour policies. He is also that rarity among politicians who seems to have genuine beliefs that he adheres to. But, and it’s a massive but, his past support for the IRA and others is so well known that I can’t see him converting nearly 20% of Tory voters in the next 4 weeks.

  6. @PeteB

    I think Lab is enthusing it’s core voters. They are very happy to have a “pure” manifesto uncluttered with any compromises to tempt those pesky floating voters. So they’ll go to the polls happy. But the floating voters and Tories are utterly unmoved.

    But still, if both sides go to the polling stations happy, then it counts as a happy election, regardless of outcome!

  7. @Jim Jam

    Hmm. Anecdote alert.

    Canvassing today from 2 households, Corbyn as PM no thanks but Tories going to win anyway so will vote for current Labour MP so majority not too big.

    Might help in a few seats, possibly he says clutching at a rather thin and worn straw!!

    I was going to post something on these lines myself.

    What may help Labour are those Labour voters not hot on PM Corbyn, but who like their Labour MP and policies.

    Do they vote to give TM Gordon Brown’s blank check, or see that TM is nailed on to win, so might as well vote for their MP anyway?

    From a GOTV position, maybe the Tories want the polls to tighten.

  8. Its a pity that Labour never manages to have a very strong leader at the same time as offering a firm left of centre prospectus. All too often the Leader is a problem (Foot, Kinnock, Miliband, Corbyn) so its hard to say it was because the policies were too radical.

  9. Candy
    Yes I suppose ol’ Corby will have his place in history as the only ‘true’ socialist to have led his party in a GE. At least for the next 100 years anyway.

  10. I find it surreal that some contributors on this site are getting themselves work up about labour hitting the 30% mark as not a single poll has shown the tories at under the 45% mark meaning where still in the 100+ majority territory , yougov’s ukip 3% is striking and if replicated with a sub 10% ldem vote can only make labour’s efforts to stem the tory tide an even more erroneous task.

  11. “, his past support for the IRA and others is so well known that I can’t see him converting nearly 20% of Tory voters in the next 4 weeks.”

    I wonder if the Conservatives are planning to use this in the campaign.

  12. Good Evening All
    CANDY
    Thanks for the poll link and many thanks for one of my favourite Disraeli cartoons; I used to use it during my first decade of teaching, when Mrs T was on the move.
    You will know that Dizzy was up against a formidable rival, who beat him in 1868 and then in 1880.
    Even pro Corbyn people will admit that he is no Gladstone, who, of course, also broke his Party over Ireland and the then ‘fenian’ movement.

  13. @Pete B I agree that the belief that Corbyn is pro IRA will make it next to impossible for many people to vote for him. you yourself, however, say that when you hear him talk he seems sensible. That is my impression as well. So I thought I should check this a bit.

    Looking him up on Wikipedia, I couldn’t find much solid evidence of this pro IRA stance. He supported the Guildford 4 and the Birmingham 6 and I guess most people would now say he was right to do so, He invited Adams to the houses of Parliament for talks. This was severely tactless because of its timing (close the Brighton bombing) but I guess most people are now glad that Major talked to the IRA, albeit in a more guarded way, and there was at his end ambivalence about McGuiness.

    So I wonder if all this demonisation of Corbyn is not going to be a bit counterproductive. It worked with Brown, and Miliband with his burger. It didn’t work with Demon Eyes (pity perhaps). It’s always a caricature and if it gets questioned, it might backfire.

  14. Marco
    “I find it surreal that some contributors on this site are getting themselves work up about labour hitting the 30% mark…”

    Speaking for myself, I’m just amazed that their VI is holding up so well. I’m not concerned about them winning. I’ve already made my money on the outcome anyway.

    ProfHoward
    “I wonder if the Conservatives are planning to use this in the campaign.”

    They might well, but probably don’t even need to.

  15. Charles
    It goes a bit deeper than that:

    He said of the Anglo-Irish agreement
    “Does the hon. Gentleman accept that some of us oppose the agreement for reasons other than those that he has given? We believe that the agreement strengthens rather than weakens the border between the six and the 26 counties, and those of us who wish to see a United Ireland oppose the agreement for that reason”

  16. @ChrisLane1945

    I thought that cartoon was funny for the way he wouldn’t say what his policies were (which turned out to be a lot of health and safety stuff – public health act 1875, sale of food and drugs act 1875 etc).

  17. I am sure he never voiced support for IRA violence, but he was very close to the leadership of the IRA namely Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness.

  18. UKIP squeeze benefitting mostly Tories but partly Labour, too.

    No damaging effect for Labour after weak performance at local elections and Diane Abbott`s infamous car crash interview.

    Some aspects of Jeremy Corbyn running his campaing reminding me of Donald Trump who also had to fight against his own party establishment. But still Trump was never down 15 to 20 points compared to Hillary Clinton.

    Amazing to see that the Conservatives are still within the 45 to 50 percent range in the polls.
    GB might turn into former western Germany politically. Two major parties, one smaller liberal one and nothing else. 78 to 80 percent for the two leading parties looks stunning in relation to the three previous elections showing CON+LAB arround 65 percent of the vote.

  19. @Pete B

    Fair point. This shows that he wanted a united Ireland. Did he openly advocate the armed struggle?

  20. PETE B

    I think you are right. The Tories have probably collated a vast archive of useful material not just about Corbyn but McDonnell and others too. I should think it must be very tempting to use it but I reckon T. May has told them she wants to lay off the personal criticism – unless the polls tighten sufficient to warrant it. Aside from the ‘coalition of chaos’ its been a surprisingly non-negative campaign – so far.

  21. This Corbyn/IRA thing came up a week ago, and following AWs sound advice it was dropped as a subject.

  22. ProfHoward
    That is enough for most English people at least. I can’t speak for Scots etc. I lost friends in the Birmingham pub bombings.

  23. If Labour do any better then Corbyn may remain as leader after – which May would like to happen.

  24. Pete B; understood. (I am Northern Irish, by the way).

  25. More Stephen Fisher works on the impact of UKIP dropping out vs UKIP standing…

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/13/ukip-dropout-did-not-help-the-conservatives-much-in-the-local-elections/

    Quick answer – not much!

  26. At the time when Corbyn was against the Anglo-Irish Agreement because he favoured a united Ireland, reunification of Ireland was Labour Party policy. For example, the 1987 Labour manifesto stated “We believe in a united Ireland: to be achieved peacefully, democratically, and by consent” – although it went on to say “We consequently support the Anglo-Irish Agreement”. The 1992 manifesto had similar statements.

  27. Labour tended to take quite a similar line to the SDLP in those days but Corbyn always seemed to associate himself with SF rather than SDLP politicians.

  28. @Candy

    “Careful. It depends entirely on what you are spending on. If you are building brand-new infrastructure to relieve proven bottlenecks, then sure, easing those bottlenecks will make GDP increase (with accompanying increases in tax revenue).

    But simply nationalising existing infrastructure won’t do that. The amount of infratructure stays the same, all you are doing is transferring tax money to various French and German entities as compensation when you nationalise…”

    ———-

    Lol Candy, I’ve been keen to warn it’s not just a blank cheque of inevitable goodness myself in the past

    A classic example was during the Seventies Oil Crisis. With rampant inflation due to oil prices, increasing govt. spending to stave off the associated recession would make the inflation worse, especially given we were closer to full employment in those days. That’s what made the oil crisis so hard to deal with.

    But even just spending money on pretty worthless things can provide a stimulus, as peeps having more dosh creates more demand and in turn incentivises private sector to invest and stick more money in.

    Conversely, when we made cuts more recently, private sector investment fell, and with it so did growth.

    Any road, Corbyn is not seeking to nationalise everything but to introduce a state player alongside the other private sector firms…

  29. What does everyone think is the absolute best case scenario for Labour / worst case for Tories? Obviously with justification ????

  30. “I think you are right. The Tories have probably collated a vast archive of useful material not just about Corbyn but McDonnell and others too. I should think it must be very tempting to use it but I reckon T. May has told them she wants to lay off the personal criticism – unless the polls tighten sufficient to warrant it. Aside from the ‘coalition of chaos’ its been a surprisingly non-negative campaign – so far.”

    ———

    If Theresa really is abandoning liberalism, then she might benefit from keeping Corbyn in the game to deflect liberal press criticism. Corbyn and One Nation Tories have common interests….

  31. Anyone know whether a Scottish poll is coming soon?

  32. That was a smiley at the end (rather than four question marks!)

  33. @CANDY: “But simply nationalising existing infrastructure won’t do that. The amount of infratructure stays the same, all you are doing is transferring tax money to various French and German entities as compensation when you nationalise…”

    As far as the railways are concerned we’re already transferring large amounts of taxpayers’ money to French and German entities. Labour’s re-nationalisation proposal involves taking over franchises as they fall due, so no compensation involved. (Much as happened in 2009 when National Express handed back the East Coast franchise.)

  34. @PETE B: “Yes I suppose ol’ Corby will have his place in history as the only ‘true’ socialist to have led his party in a GE.”

    Keir Hardie, George Lansbury, Atlee… ?

  35. I find it quite strange that there is such apparent support for the nationalisation of the railways and utilities when all past evidence is that UK governments run these things badly. Perhaps it is just that people have short memories and have forgotten that successive governments saw their job as overseeing the managed decline of British rail. It remains to be seen if these preferences translate into votes. It depends on how important they are to people in the greater scheme of things and whether people think they will actually happen.

    For a real upset it would probably require a major catastrophic event, but even then there would have to be some confidence that the other side would have handled it better. I doubt if the cyber attack on the NHS will be regarded as such an event but you never know. Next week’s polls will perhaps tell us.

  36. I think that Labour does not suffer by campaigning on some nationalization – in fact it seems to do them good in the polls. Those things like rail and energy seem to be popular candidates for it.

  37. “I find it quite strange that there is such apparent support for the nationalisation of the railways and utilities when all past evidence is that UK governments run these things badly. Perhaps it is just that people have short memories and have forgotten that successive governments saw their job as overseeing the managed decline of British rail.”

    ———

    Well rail was underfunded, but still, tickets were affordable without booking months in advance, you didn’t have what happen now with ticket machines deliberately pushing more expensive fares, and connections didn’t involve trying to work across different companies. Often you even got a seat!!

    As for utilities, heating for eggers is no longer affordable for many as companies have clearly hiked prices to pay for multi-billion pound acquisitions of rivals and suppliers allowing further hiking…

    Might go some way towards explaining the polling…

  38. Leader of LD in Scotland, Willie Rennie, is talking up the chances of LDs in Argyll and Bute

  39. @RMJ1: “I find it quite strange that there is such apparent support for the nationalisation of the railways and utilities when all past evidence is that UK governments run these things badly. ”

    There really isn’t that evidence, though. Industries have succeeded and failed in both public and private ownership. And the UK government is running the railways at the moment – and has been since at least 1940. The only question is what is the best way to organise and regulate an industry that can’t survive without public money.

  40. @RMJ1

    For more info on what it’s like these days you should chat to Allan C. He uses the train to commute…

  41. Prof Howard

    A party leader talking up his party’s chance of winning a seat isn’t exactly exciting news! :-)

  42. @ProfHoward

    Assuming the SNP slip back a little, the Lib Dems would need to keep their 2015 vote plus gain about 15% more of the vote from the other Unionist parties.

  43. Odd coincidence that we are discussing Corbyn talking to the IRA the same day as this.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39906980

    Which is worse?

    That people like Corbyn are openly talking to terrorists when others declare that we must never talk to terrorists.

    Or

    That people like Corbyn are openly talking to terrorists when others who are talking to them in secret declare that we must never talk to terrorists?

    Peter.

  44. @ROGERH

    Ah yes, but you get no opperating assets with the franchise so you have to buy trains and carriages. Also, if you have no chance of franchise renewal, you might push too hard for maximum income at the expense of long term sustainability so the trains and carriages might be a little worse for wear, but who else can the government buy them from if you want to keep running? All to take back what is in reality a loss making enterprise.

  45. @RMJ1,
    Shortly before BR’s privatisation, Conservative MP Peter Bottomley said that British Rail “was now running its network with greater competence than any in Europe”.

  46. I didn’t know this, but apparently “In 1974, the playing of Portugal’s Eurovision entry was the signal for the Carnation Revolution overthrowing the fascist Estado Novo regime.”

  47. looks like anti-Tory vote is rallying around Labour – but probably isn’t strong enough to counter the move from UKIP – Tory. Even with the most optimistic scenario (from a Lab pov) you are looking at a 12% Tory lead.

    Such surges are difficult to resist even with an incumbency advantage and prominent MP’s focusing on local campaigns.

    The basic point is that remain Tory voters are not switching – partly because Corbyn is not seen as a viable alternative but also because its not as big an issue for them as it is for leave voters.

  48. Meanwhile May’s Brexit will give the IRA fresh hope to get everything it ever wanted.

    http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-has-given-sinn-fein-new-grievance-to-awaken-old-cause-1-4957637

  49. @RMJ1: “Ah yes, but you get no operating assets with the franchise so you have to buy trains and carriages.”

    The present franchisers don’t own any rolling stock – the system doesn’t allow it. It’s leased from ROSCOs – so there would be no change there. Having a state-owned company that could own its own rolling stock would save the taxpayer millions in the long run, though.

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