The Evening Standard has a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in London, the first London poll we’ve seen since the election was called. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%(+2), LAB 41%(+4), LDEM 14%(nc), UKIP 6%(-3). Changes are from the last YouGov London poll, conducted back in March.

Compared to the general election this represents an increase of one for the Conservatives, a decrease of three for Labour and an increase of six points for the Lib Dems. A two point swing from Lab to Con is significantly less than polls are indicating for Britain as a whole (currently around about a six point swing). This difference is mostly because the Tories are doing worse in London than elsewhere and the Liberal Democrats are doing better; Labour’s drop in support in London isn’t that different to their drop elsewhere in the country.

On a uniform swing, the Conservatives would looking at taking Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead & Kilburn amd Enfield North. It would be enough for the Lib Dems to reclaim Twickenham, and to put Kingston & Surbiton and Bermondsey & Old Southwark in contention.

Earlier today we also had a new Panelbase GB poll. Topline figures there are CON 48%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(nc). Full Panelbase tabs are here


286 Responses to “YouGov/Evening Standard poll of London – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 14, UKIP 6”

1 3 4 5 6
  1. @Somerjohn, ToH

    Last month I mentioned that some of the more specialist forward economic indicators had the amber light on. It appears that those lights are now appearing more widely.

    We have a particular problem with labour shortage in several crucial sectors of the economy. The BoE have been warning for some time that we’re reliant on skilled immigrants in construction, manufacturing and IT. They’re now warning that the fall in the pound (eroding wages), high UK cost of living and the social climate means that those skilled immigrants – who have a lot of international options and have skills that are in demand everywhere – aren’t so keen to come here any more and are instead opting for international competitors who offer more stability.

  2. Interesting article here for the “they need us more than we need them” school of thought:

    https://www.thelocal.de/20170511/bad-brexit-deal-could-mean-mini-production-leaves-britain-bmw-warns

  3. “Corbyn moving to “Old” Labour is no surprise but for the average voter it might be.”

    ———-

    Be interesting if polling flags this up. Because it’s not so much old Labour, as just, you know, Labour, in contrast with Nulab which wasn’t so much Labour as Liberal.

    They could get away with it for a while but as more of the Liberalism becomes apparent it gets rejected by either voters or membership. Tories been rejecting it too….

    LibDems had to pretend to have moved to the left to increase their vote. Once it became apparent ipthey were still Liberals really, vote collapses…

    (This may explain why PLP are so comfortable with trashing the party. They’re being rejected by the host…)

  4. @David Colby

    I think a lot of the perception is derived from how it is reported. The Mao book was a badly thought through joke that backfired, or rather was skillfully reflected by Osborne. Credit where it is due that was a good comeback. So, did Corbyn really not sing?

    Here’s a picture of the patriotic Corbyn singing the anthem whilst anti-monarchists David Cameron and Michael Fallon make a political stand and refuse to show their respect to our anointed queen. Disgusting! Who do they think they are?

    http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_medium/public/thumbnails/image/2015/09/15/14/singing.jpg

    The ‘Tory press’ dominates the agenda in this country and creates a narrative. Do you dispute that is entirely deliberate and they were looking for ammunition all the time? New Labour were skilled at controlling this narrative while Corbyn’s party, rife with division as it is, has not been. Corbyn’s many years of political baggage and unwise commentary have just made it easy for them. No doubt the front pages will be plastered with this ‘news’ in the next few weeks.

    As for what is really left wing. I don’t dispute the Overton window in this country is quite far to the right at the moment but again this is a careful creation not an objective reality. I gave numerous examples of other leaders or states where institutions the Mail would have us believe are extreme are supported by centrist or
    centre-right politicians.

    Here are some political compass charts to give a little more objectivity. I suspect Corbyn’s Labour is closer to the Greens now than Miliband’s ‘new’ Labour but probably not quite as far in the bottom left as them.

    https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015
    http://cdn1.globalissues.org/i/political-compass/uk-parties-over-time.png

  5. And look how Theresa’s vote has mushroomed since they ditched the Liberalism. Or at least made noises to that effect, it’s still a case of wait and see in practice…

    In contrast the more Liberal Cameron could barely increase his vote in 2015 and had to rely on some serious targeting to prevail…

    (Before the targeting he couldn’t even win outright against Brown after the Crunch).

  6. “I’m baffled as to why the Tory campaign is so bad. Complacency?”

    ———–

    Well, if they are planning to move away from the Liberalism, they need Corbyn to pull things leftwards first. Then when they move a bit to the left it seems less severe, more moderate. (Is one of a number of possibilities…)

  7. Chris Riley

    I have to agree with you regarding the Conservative approach to this election.

    It is very lacklustre and complacent.

    If there is one thing I believe the British people don’t like, it is being taken for granted.

    At least Jeremy is being open and honest regarding his plans.

    Where are the Tories? I do believe they are taking this election for granted and that won’t go down well with the public.

    As we are starting to see.

  8. No need for the Tories to be running round with their hair on fire, they’re the ones in the premier position. They can wait on the other manifesto releases then bring out their own and capture the momentum (the concept, not the loonies) into polling day. The Tory campaign hasn’t really started because there’s no reason to yet ! But it’ll be quite different in 3 weeks time.

  9. RUDYARD, you must be seeing polls the rest of us aren’t seeing?

  10. Robin

    I should have been clearer – tuition fee is important (even if it’s a small fish, aw I mentioned 10 billion here or there doesn’t matter), because it has immediate implications because of the funding of the universities, and the cumulative interests.

    The real long term one is of course the railway nationalisation. If the franchisees know that no franchise would be renewed, then investment needs will be very high in the future.

    (one of the thing Labour doesn’t speak is whether they abolish the direct nationalised firm – state budget link of pre-privatisation (I think it is absolutely necessary) or not.

  11. BoE is warning that living standards will fall this year due to higher prices (and meagre pay deals) due to brexit, where is Candy and her army as I recall they wouldn’t allow this to happen?

  12. Sea Change,
    “Not true. Customers derive their income from many sources. private investments, asset sales, public share dividends, interest on deposits as well as salaries.”

    Not traditional labour voters, they dont. The ones who do have savings have just sat through 7 tory years of virtually zero interest.

  13. I do think the Conservatives are running a khaki type election campaign.

  14. Koolaid Alert!!

    To make life easy, and more focused on reality, be aware that…

    – wanting to nationalise as much as possible is extreme

    – at the other end of the scale, wanting to privatise as much as possible is extreme.

    So wanting to just nationalise one sector like energy, is not especially extreme. Even less so when actually, they don’t plan to nationalise it, but to just introduce a state player ALONGSIDE all the capitalists to just shape their behaviour away from all the buying up of rivals, price-gouging of essentials etc. etc.

  15. And also to insure against corporates screwing up. Like we could have done with a state bank ready to ramp up when the private sector locked up in the Crunch and started trashing businesses by calling in the overdrafts. We needed a state bank to step in quick, if only temporarily. Also not extreme, just common sense…

  16. @Colin – “But-will they be “Debt” at all-ie repayable at interest by The Treasury-or will this be Money Printing pure & simple.If its the latter-Labour takes us into VERY new territory.”

    I think these are genuinely interesting questions. However, it really should be instructive for people to rewind to 2007/8 and recall what was done when the banks collapsed.

    For sound reasons, we entered into ‘VERY new territory’ then, because the entire global financial architecture that had developed under the modern monetarist deregulated neol!beral modern consensus collapsed under the weight of it’s own hubris.

    Not much was said about in the mainstream (or extremist – take your pick) press about the government bail outs, despite the fact the money was channeled direct to the banks with very little to show for it from taxpayers except asset inflation and more wealth for the wealthy.

    But when Labour come up with novel ideas to channel electronically created money into socially useful investments that are designed to benefit all, it becomes the ‘magic money tree’ and other disparaging notions.

    There are, undoubtedly, huge double standards here, as evidenced by the contradictory reactions to energy price caps when promoted by the two different parties.

    I would agree – Labour’s policy details will be very interesting to see, but I would urge people to refrain from writing off the idea from the start – it worked for the banks, so may be it can work for the rest of the economy, if done well?

  17. Pete

    Leads dropping from the 20s to 16pc today, for example.

    And still a month to go.

  18. @ CARFREW – “Old” Labour is a “perception” not a personal view. These guys capture the “perception” aspect that the right-wing press are putting into people’s minds:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyns-manifesto_uk_5914033ee4b066b42170fff9

    The big problem for Labour is they are vastly under represented in the press. The Guardian seem to be hedging their bets a little – pro LDEM in regards to Brexit but some nice words for LAB. Aside from the traditional LAB papers all the others are CON. As someone pointed out earlier even advertising is picking up on the Labour bashing. It’s a drip-drip perception issue. It does run the risk of creating complacency for CON and/or sympathy for LAB but I don’t think it will go quite as far as the Macron (anti Le Pen) vote.

  19. @Carfrew – indeed. The ideas swirling about regarding a state owned energy provider in the existing market is the kind of idea I was hoping for, rather than straight nationalisation.

    This goes back a very, very long way. Back in the 1870’s (I think) the government was so appalled by the rip off that was the annuity pension market, that they set up a pension annuity scheme within the Post Office, aimed at lower earners.

    It was successful, and attracted savers, with good value products, so much so that the traditional banking sector was outraged and campaign, cajoled and threatened the government to shut it down, which they duly did.

    Someone in government needs to have the balls to face down big business and explain that what are currently living through is economic extremism, and that there really is another, more socially orientated way to organise society.

  20. Corbyn Labour has no real friends in the mainstream press.The Mirror will give them a hearing.They seem to be hoping Facebook and new blogs such Evolve Politics, Another angry voice , The canary ,Skawkbox for example can spread the word with the young.Buzzfeed suggest they are having some success..In future years they might have a point in getting their views across to a wider audience instead of been lucky to getting a column in any of right of centre papers.

  21. Re the lacklustre Tory campaign. I think part of the problem is that if they followed the giveaway approach of the Labour party and LibDems they, unlike the other parties, are likely to be asked to keep their promises, Meanwhile Labour/Lib Dems will be able to say if only you had listened to us none of this further austerity would have been necessary.

  22. Labour’s manifesto may well have the effect of pushing Brexit into the background and force the Tories to address these other issues.

  23. Hello Dez.
    Hopefully the launch today will help Labour win some more support.

    I seem to remember when Campbell and Mandelson did well with MsM and with consistent ‘message notes’ to their spokeswomen and men on interview and Gordon Brown did all the dirty work after 1992, ensuring that the Labour Party commitments were disciplined.

    It will be interesting to see whether the new approach works well.

  24. @Graham

    Doubt it, some EU dude will undoubtedly stick their oar in at some point in the next week and we’ll be right back at “Brexit means Brexit” all over the place

  25. Rudyard,

    I do admire your resilience – the Conservative vote looks solid in the mid to upper 40’s. This is landslide territory. As you say there is still there is still a month to go – and the Tories have barely kicked off their campaign. But yes, there could still be further narrowing.

  26. Dez
    My understanding is that the SNP have done a rather better job of finding ways to bypass generally hostile media. Unfortunately in the world of political parties one can’t expect the SNP to host Lab people so they can learn from their experience…

    Evidence so far is that you can’t rely on social media/new media. You need to have your activists and supporters engaged in their communities and pushing your policies and your perspective. Don’t forget all those oldie voters who use social media once in a blue moon because their son/daughter has inconsiderately posted the latest piccies of the grandchildren on Facebook rather than emailing or printing them!

  27. Hello chris lane .Yes I remember Campbell and Mandelson keeping them all on message with pagers going of everywhere in the 90s.Once in government though they divided and ruled the MSM by giving information to certain papers.

  28. David West

    I prefer hope over fear, positivity over negativity and always seeking to support those who want to make life fairer, equal and better for all.

    There is always a compassionate answer to the slings and arrows of life.

  29. In all honesty, with 80% of the media being Tory dominated, it doesn’t really matter what Labour does outside a few twitter and Facebook bubbles. They’ll never get a positive hearing for their message among the general public. Which doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try, but all these manifestos and daily machinations don’t mean much to the average Joe.

  30. Sorbus I agree .However the SNP had one great selling point keeping their coalition together Independence .Once that is achieved they will have problems with split agendas.

  31. @TREVOR WARNE

    “@ CARFREW – “Old” Labour is a “perception” not a personal view. These guys capture the “perception” aspect that the right-wing press are putting into people’s minds”

    ————–

    Well now, do they? Or is that just summat the media are hoping to sell?

    It’s an easy attack line because Corbyn etc. was actually in politics back then. But on the other hand, a lot of younger peeps have embraced his policies and are rejecting the liberalism that is even older than Corbyn’s approach.

    Corbyn isn’t really suggesting back to the a Seventies or Eighties on energy, but a different paradigm. Not nationalisation but a state actor in the market.

  32. @SSSIMON

    It isn’t Tory-dominated, there’s quite a lot of liberalism in there…. Graun, Independent, Beeb etc.

    It’s just that there’s not so much non-Liberal Labour…

  33. The reactions to the different energy policy price caps demonstrate the unbalanced nature of much of the press, but I also think we need to be careful of assuming the Tory campaign is lacklustre.

    This was said in 2015, and it turned out to be rather brilliant. They quietly targeted key voters in key constituencies using big data and new techniques, much as Trump did, and for all the claims of poor campaigning (including from the likes of me!) they showed that in fact, they were rather good at it.

    I suspect Labour will make a lot of noise this time, but I’ve yet to see hard evidence that they are cleverly targeting their online activity.

  34. david West,
    “As you say there is still there is still a month to go – and the Tories have barely kicked off their campaign”

    We all seem pretty much agreed that the least said the better for the conservatives. They have one policy which matters and it has been doing well. If they did not have this policy presumably we would not be having an election now, but forgetting that, if they had to fight on the current economic situation, it isnt really very good. Blaming it on the last labour government must by now be getting rather thin. Especially if labour is showing some fight and refusing to accept that blame.

    Without the excuse of Brexit, the economy has done badly over the last year. If the EU economy is finally looking up while the UK’s is going backwards again, this is exactly the area of debate the Tories do not want to have when support for Brexit relies upon a belief in its eventual success.

  35. I think journalists themselves are getting a bit fed-up with other journalists lacking professionalism. Michael Crick for example has been complaining on twitter that journalists are allowing Tory staff to vet their questions to T May. And a Sun journalist of all people is tweeting a WingsOverScotland article concerning the T May – shall we generously call it inaccurate statement – that SNP had been fined for election expense issues when the SNP have never been fined. Only the Sun has called her out on it.

    So perhaps with four weeks to go journalists might drop the party politics and start doing their job.

  36. I see 3 contrasting campaigns so far..

    Labour are using there cyber army to respond to comments, blitz voodoo polls and generally shout loudly.

    Conservative, targeted and understated. Although a little bird tells me the main campaign isn’t due to start until the end of next week.

    Libdems out with the old battle bus. Trying to get heard.

    Who’s will win ?

    Certainly here in the South West, its a bit mixed. Bristol will be interesting, Bath close but the somersets will probably be even more blue.

  37. Danny

    I think the Conservatives will have something up their sleeves if only for the final week of the campaign. But I’m not sure if they are that concerned about the ups and downs of the economy as far as the election is concerned. They are well clear on the two issues that ultimately decide elections – trust on the economy and leadership – which of course extends to leadership as far as Brexit negotiations are concerned. Very difficult for Labour to close the gap of those issues.

  38. I have just analysed the first three weeks of polling since the election was called on the 18th and noted averages by week:

    Week 1 47 / 26 / 11 / 8 / 3 / +21
    Week 2 46 / 29 / 10 / 7 / 3 / +17
    Week 3 47 / 29 / 10 / 7 / 3 / +18

    Con / Lab / LD / UKIP / Grn / Cons Lead

  39. Quite fascinating to read all Lenin’s arguments in “What is to be done?” on newspapers :-)

    Anyway, while the dominance of conservatism and right of the centre liberalism in English newspapers is true, it is certainly not true for individual journalists, where occupational norms still exists. Furthermore, if people were to feel that they were regularly manipulated, they would respond to that (if newspapers were omnipotent, state socialism would still stand). The industry is also quite dynamic – I remember how anti-Labour Liverpool Echo use to be (and it was, probably is the most read source of news here). Most of the leftist Alt-Media are just truly bad, and extremely manipulative, so works only for the converted.

    Also, if the starting point is that the media hostile, then the question is what to do about it, rather than complaining (but of course it is a commonly shared best skill).

  40. The Tories are crafty. Around my way Lib Dems are there main challengers. There’s loads of Lib Dem posters up but not many Tory, as in 2015 the Tory posters will appear like locusts devouring crops over night to over run the Lib Dem yellow with blue…Plus no need to worry if they over spend again the CPS will let them off.

  41. @ CARFREW – sorry I don’t want to drift into partisan issues. I fully accept a lot of younger voters are fully onboard with Corbyn’s vision – the polls always show LAB have the highest share of the 18-24y old segment.
    Conversely CON get the lion’s share of the “grey” vote.

    The problem is old people are more likely to vote on the day (an issue some pollsters now partially correct for) and the 18-24y bucket only covers a 6y age span anyway (side question for pollsters – why are the buckets not consistent on age or % of registered voters?) The 50-64 and 65+ buckets combined are 3x the size of the 18-24y bucket, adjusting for probability of voting it is more like 4-5x. This all comes out in the wash in the stated poll numbers but the split by age crossbreaks do show the quite extreme youngLAB/oldCON

    In 2015 the pollsters got the LAB/CON bias wrong by +3/-3 (swing of 6). Reverse engineering the adjustments they now make seems to give about a +1/-2 (swing of 3) adjustment to the raw data. If the adjustment should be based more on demographics then the polling bias is larger now that the polling tabs are showing an even bigger shift to youngLAB oldCON compared to 2015.

    I try to look at the raw data in some polls and base my expectation to vote coefficient off of that (ie do my own bias adjustment and not blindly accept the polling companies). I might have this completely wrong but I think the outcome on 9June will embarrass the pollsters again by under-estimating the LAB bias in the polls as it isn’t as simple as a LAB bias, it includes a motivation to vote bias and that has a large demographic component.

    Longer term, sure if the current crop of younger vote stick with LAB as they grow older it will help in elections in years to come. I haven’t looked into it fully but trusted friends tell me their is a “drift to the right” bias as people age. If you look into the tabs you’ll see CON have very high loyalty, LAB is a little lower, LDEM/UKIP lower still (obvious reason due to Brexit for those two).

    Appealing to young voters (at the expense of older voters) and then seeing them “lured to the dark side” as they grow older is a bad strategy if you want to get elected. Whether they are good policies or not doesn’t matter if you never get to put them into practise.

  42. @Chris Lane 1945

    Good Evening! Many thanks for your response and the list of Welsh constituencies to look out for. I agree that if the Tories maintain a 6% lead in Wales on paper these seats are vulnerable. However, unlike England outside London I don’t think the Tory high tide as uniform in distribution in Wales. I think the Tories will climb steeper in areas of Wales which are more “English”, like Monmouthshire and Pembrokeshire. Hopefully less so in working class Welsh Wales (whether Welsh speaking or not). We shall have to see – and watch for further Welsh polling!

  43. “Plus no need to worry if they over spend again the CPS will let them off.”

    Not too sure about that.

    No charges were brought because intent could not be proved. The issue is now out in the wide open, and candidates and agents should be expected to have greater knowledge of the national/local split, so it’s going to be much harder to argue that they didn’t know what they were doing.

  44. Somerjohn

    “Rose coloured spectacles on, TOH? The report I read says “The bank, unveiling its Quarterly Inflation Report, also raised its forecast for inflation this year to 2.7% from its February forecast of 2.4%.”

    and

    “Carney also warned of a consumer spending squeeze this year as inflation rises and real wages fall.”

    and

    “Have I missed your usual commentary on the Industrial production and balance of payments figures, also released this morning?”

    All very amusing.

    I stick by my benign comment on the Gov.BE report this morning simply because it is better than I have been forecasting myself for months.

    If you actually bothered to read my posts instead of trying to score points you would know that my forecast for this year is actually GDP growth of 1.8%, still below the revised figure and higher inflation. The high level of personal debt and the drop in the value of the £ which has caused greater inflation was bound to cause a slow down this year due to a squeeze on consumer spending. As it happens both Alec and I agree on this and have been foecasting it for months. We both thought the OBR and the Gov. BE were wrong with their earlier forecasts and posted as much here.

    I have been at the allotments all day so I have not seen the industrial output and trade deficit figures. We know the first quarter was relatively poor (as it was last year) so no surprise.

    The improvement in the £ since the election was called will have a slightly positive effect in that it should reduce inflation a touch.

    So as you can see i am my usual balanced but optimistic self, no rose coloured spectacles at all.

    :-)

  45. The new YouGov poll is up on their site. Lots of interesting party “brand awareness” type questions that broadly give the answers you’d expect. Nothing stands out as unusual or unexpected at a first read – usual “priming” issues on the questions and responses but not really any way around that.

  46. @ CARFREW

    “It isn’t Tory-dominated, there’s quite a lot of liberalism in there…. Graun, Independent, Beeb etc.”

    Of couse it is, when hasn’t it been? By circulation, it’s approximately 80% Tory. If that’s not the definition of domination, I don’t know what is ;-)

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/07/how-left-or-right-wing-are-uks-newspapers/

  47. Re right-wing papers being more popular. I wonder if this is by and large because they are more fun and entertaining as well as having a political side.

    There is a strand of the left-wing which comes across as very earnest and humourless, in the tradition of the Ranters and Levellers. This isn’t what most people want with their cornflakes.

  48. @TOH – “So as you can see i am my usual balanced but optimistic self, no rose coloured spectacles at all.”

    Actually, you do have previous form for posting selected and optimistic interpretations of regular economic data.

    All said in the nicest possible way.

  49. I don’t think people enjoy preachy moralising, and there is a strand in the PC left (especially post-90s) that can be a bit like that.

    Tabloids like the Mail and Sun really figured out how to arouse people’s interest (celebs, royals, humour, arthritis, cats). The politics then diffuses in around the edges. I think it’s pretty clever really.

  50. sssimon
    Agreed. If the Socialist Worker and Morning Star could only bring themselves to publish pictures of scantily-clad ‘celebs’ and funny cats I bet their circulation would improve. Otherwise all they’re doing is preaching to the converted.

1 3 4 5 6