The Evening Standard has a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in London, the first London poll we’ve seen since the election was called. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%(+2), LAB 41%(+4), LDEM 14%(nc), UKIP 6%(-3). Changes are from the last YouGov London poll, conducted back in March.

Compared to the general election this represents an increase of one for the Conservatives, a decrease of three for Labour and an increase of six points for the Lib Dems. A two point swing from Lab to Con is significantly less than polls are indicating for Britain as a whole (currently around about a six point swing). This difference is mostly because the Tories are doing worse in London than elsewhere and the Liberal Democrats are doing better; Labour’s drop in support in London isn’t that different to their drop elsewhere in the country.

On a uniform swing, the Conservatives would looking at taking Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead & Kilburn amd Enfield North. It would be enough for the Lib Dems to reclaim Twickenham, and to put Kingston & Surbiton and Bermondsey & Old Southwark in contention.

Earlier today we also had a new Panelbase GB poll. Topline figures there are CON 48%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(nc). Full Panelbase tabs are here


286 Responses to “YouGov/Evening Standard poll of London – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 14, UKIP 6”

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  1. I feel compelled to say that most of the election spending malarkey is because nobody does owt for nowt anymore. In the past, I’m tempted to say in my day, volunteers volunteered and wouldn’t dream of putting in expenses claims or expecting accommodation to be paid for. We stayed with friends or other supporters and used our own transport. What is the world coming to etc. etc. rant rant ……

  2. The title reads “CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 14, UKIP 6”, are you sure there isn’t some mistake?

  3. Ohhh sorry that’s for London, I should have looked more closely :D

  4. Still pretty dreadful for Labour, considering their GB polling is almost drawing even with GE2015.

    Not much of a Lib Dem bounce either, reinforcing my suggestion that even in heavily pro-EU London, Remainers will not vote based solely on the EU, unlike many Brexit/UKIP voters.

  5. If LibDems are up by 6% in London then it could suggest that they are doing much worse elsewhere in the country than their drop in other polls indicate.

  6. If we are continuing a discussion on election expenses, has anyone else noticed how the snap election has been used to drive a coach and horses through election spending?

    The FTPA provides for a “long campaign” of about 3.5 months , with typical spending of £35k, followed by a “short campaign” from the dissolution of Parliament, where spending can be about £15k.

    It seems that with the snap election there was no such thing as a long campaign. In the old days as I recall candidates could not promote themselves as a candidate at any time without triggering election spending (hence PPC). But in Dewsbury I received two pricey leaflets and a letter from Paula Sherriff before the dissolution, two of which were delivered as addressed mail by Royal Mail. Looking at the Royal Mail website that will have cost probably £12-15k per item, plus the cost of the leaflets and mailmerged letter (at least £2k each), plus the other leaflet that may or may not have come with the pizza adverts (I suspect so). If we assume they did some Facebook advertising etc as well, the long campaign spending (if it existed) could easily have been exceeded…

    However this opportunity for spending was clearly not planned by the Tories since they were much slower off the mark, with nothing promoting any candidate and just something generically strong and stable (printed on card, I mean) with a few pictures of forgettable time serving politicians from various Parties on it… In Dewsbury you might think they would have been ready for a snap election if they knew about it, so one has to conclude the announcement really was a surprise to most people in the Tory Party…

  7. Andrew – you are right, our agent had material printed within a few days and we had a further 10 days or so to get out before the Election expenses window opened.

    Slight advantage for sitting MPs re-standing and PPCs already in place.

  8. Labour doing well in the metropolis, I think.

    Still all to play for.

    The message seems to be getting through, somewhat.

  9. @ Rudyard

    “Still all to play for”

    I admire you’re optimism.

  10. The Evening Standard poll is very different to the crossbreak info in other recent polls.

    My estimate was that we’d see CON 43, LAB 34 – 7pts different to the ES poll for both CON and LAB (UKIP and LDEM quite close to previous crossbreak info)

    Given the larger sample size and more recent polling you have to put a bit more belief in the ES poll

    The recent “Theresa May is most anti-London PM since Thatcher” comments from Sadiq Khan might have given Labour a temporary boost?

    I’d say this is encouraging news for Labour. I thought they could lose up to 10 more seats than 5-6 this poll would predict. Maybe Londoners equate London Labour to Sadiq Khan rather than Corbyn?

    Great to see a London poll – very helpful.

  11. I wonder if Khan could do a Boris and return after 8 years in 2024 (if he wins again) and lead Labour in 2027?

  12. I think at this election we will see quite a few “shy labour” voters. This being due to the onslaught that Jeremy is receiving in the newspapers.
    Rod Liddle has toured the country and thinks this is the case – he puts the Tories to win by only 30/35seats.
    As I say, all to play for.
    And a month to go…

  13. Croy,
    The Lib Dems have been up and down in various polls since the election was called, but the frequent pollsters like YouGov have them in the same range as they were for the whole of 2017 before. No-one knows which pollsters are correct in the 7-13% range they have been getting nationally. There is no real sign of them going either up or down by more than a fraction of a %

    You can see the variation between regions in the latest YouGov poll (which had the Lib Dems on 11% nationally) here https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/.

    14% in London just like the bigger sample today, 13% in the rest of the south, and 9-10% everywhere else. I seem to recall lower figures than that in the north in earlier You Gov polls. The metro mayor results suggest they are doing worse than that in northern urban areas where they have no chance, but maybe a little up on last time when they lost so many deposits.

    You can see how different groups voted last time here https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/

    The best comparison with now is here https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/voter-movements-stickers-switchers-and-undecideds-/

    That shows the Lib Dem up since 2015 by only 1% among C2DE voters (or perhaps not up at all), and up by 4.5% among ABC1 voters, presumably a Brexit effect. In fact there is hardly any net swing between Tory and Lib Dem since 2015 among better off voters (both up 4-6%), but a big swing to Tory among C2DE’s.

    Hope that helps in your analysis of Westmorland and Lonsdale!

  14. @ JIM JAM – Indeed!!

    Sadiq Khan is very popular +35 v -44 for Corbyn according to poll info referenced here:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-opinion-polls-sadiq-khan-london-paul-nuttall_uk_58de466fe4b0e6ac709436c2

    Khan is 70-1 for next leader. I think the odds are quite long as people thinking next+1 perhaps?

  15. Got a very glossy, well-printed and totally meaningless Tory leaflet through the door today that didn’t even mention who was standing locally.

    Complete waste of everyone’s time and money tbh. But it’ll come under national campaign spending no doubt, which I guess is fair enough.

  16. Rudyard – Shy Labour may no be the right term this time more like ambivalent Labour.

    What we know is that Corbyn has inspired voters to return to the Labour Fold that had either moved to a fringe left party or abstained in the past.

    We also know that has put off a large chunk of more moderate voters.
    These 2 groups may cancel each out but if some of the second group jump to Cons rather than just abstain then 2 of the first group are needed just to match.

    Anyone inspired by JC (short hand) will vote labour anyhow so the challenge is to increase the retention rate and/or limit the straight swap tom Cons.

    Apart from Diane Abbots ‘performance’ Labour including JC have done OK so far but the onslaught is yet to come.
    Expect he voting against Iraq may come in useful to counter the ‘patriotic’ attacks as being patriotic demands speaking out when you feel the Government is wrong on major issues.

  17. @Jim Jam
    re: performance I have been very impressed with the performance of Barry Gardiner and I am a bit surprised he’s not been wheeled out a bit more. I wonder if there is an underlying reason for this?

  18. The five seats Labour is projected to lose in this poll were gains from the Tories?LibDems in 2015 – with the exception of Hampstead & Kilburn which had a new Labour MP following Glenda Jackson’s retirement. An adverse swing of 2% could quite easily be offset by a first term bonus for these new MPS so it is entirely possible that Labour could retain them all – in the same way that Tory MPs elected in marginal seats in 2010 were able to withstand the pro- Labour swing in England in 2015.

  19. Nate Silver posited yesterday (or perhaps the day before) That where results vary from polls the discrepancy is always in the opposite to direction to what conventional wisdom dictates.

    I have no idea if this is true but what do we all think is the “conventional wisdom” this time?

  20. @Jim Jam
    @Trevor Warne

    I too think Sadiq Khan is a fantastic bet at 66/1 for the leadership. I find those odds inexplicable.

    I have also been looking at the odds for Emily Thornberry’s seat, Islington South & Finsbury. She is hot favourite at 1/12. Lib Dems second favourites at 9/1 and the Tories at 28/1. Yet the Tories came second last time with 9,800 votes compared to the LDs who came third with 4,800.

    I am aware that the LDs have traditionally come second but that is a substantial lead that the Tories have, and I can see no basis for the LDs being favoured over them by the bookies. Any LD remain-led recovery will probably actually help the Tories.

    Tories in Islington S plus S Khan is one helluva 1800/1 double!!

  21. I still think that TM will be comfortable with a majority of anything over 50 and I expect about 70 to 80. They may well do better than this if they do break through in some Labour heartlands but this may prove difficult in a single leap. There will be some close contests though and formerly safe seats will become marginals. Libs could get up to about 15 and SNP drop to 42 or 43 losing a few to everyone but mainly Con. London will be interesting if the UKIP vote goes blue making it very close in many Labour seats.

    I could well be wrong of course and it may be an absolute landslide. It’s hard to get a feel for things when you’re in the middle of France.

  22. @RMJ1

    It is no easier getting a fell for it here in Swansea.

  23. As others have said, good to get some up to date data from London. I don’t think this is in anyway a surprising poll and in part supports my view of a small LD revival at the GE which I included in my forecast. Taken together i think all the three polls we have seen since yesterday still imply a Conservative majority of around 100 seats but of course there is still almost a month to go before polling day.

  24. @ToH
    Your thoughts on likely outcomes are in line with my own, for what that is worth…

  25. “feel” not “fell” where are my specs

  26. @ MILLIE – Khan is a timing issue I think. If he was an MP at the moment then I would suspect he’d be 10-1. I’m not that involved in politics normally but my guess is he’ll see out his first term as Mayor and go for a second – assuming he wins second term that put it out to 2024. He then has to win a by-election or stand in 2027 as MP candidate and only then make a play for leader.
    I might have that all wrong but that was my quick thoughts.

    Islington F+S was 74% Remain. I think we’re seeing “acceptance” of Brexit and a desire to ensure that where possible LAB-Remain seats stay LAB (especially where LDEM have very little chance). Tactical voters should switch from LIB to LAB in most cases. The swing seems way too high to turn that seat Blue. UKIP did get 7.6% in 2015 so if they don’t stand that helps. I think the odds seem about right.

    The difficulty for an “official” Brexit position from Labour is shown here:
    https://manicbeancounter.com/2016/07/

    Khan can avoid the need to tow the “official” Brexit line and just stand up for London. Not so easy for national leader Corbyn.

  27. TOH nothing changes in the campaign it is just a reverse re run of the result in 97 and 2001. I remember Hague banging on about save the pound moved nothing in the final result.

  28. I note two other posters have mentioned a connection with Swansea: is that small place in the west of Wales skewing the statistics on this site?

  29. Good afternoon all.
    London voted very REMAIN, I think; it is more pro Labour now; due to the high number of the Labour core vote- which seems to be the ‘BAME’ electorate and the upper professional strata.

    Outside of London I think Labour is falling back.to its 1935 base.

  30. This remain/leave thing is overstated as an election effect. Clearly room for UKIP switching to Tories and some boost
    of a small amount to Lib Dems but I voted remain and have absolutely no intention of switching to Lib Dems and that applies to many people I know

  31. Little red Rock

    “what do we all think is the “conventional wisdom” this time?”

    Good question. I’ve been noticing that there is now an assumption that polls favour Labour, and there are many who still talk of ‘shy Tories’, although that hypothesis is pretty much disproved. So if Nate Silver is right ,that would seem to be in Labour’s favour. On the other hand, there is feeling about that ‘ surely the Tories can’t be doing THAT well’ (20+ point lead).
    I hold both opinions. Probably both wrong!

  32. BIGFATRON & DEZ

    Thanks for your comments but as i said there is still nearly a month to go. A significant “event” could change things but at the moment I tend to agree with DEZ’s comment.

  33. Rich
    “We’re some of these allegations politically motivated?? That’s a key question we probably won’t ever know.”

    Without wishing to continue the conversation any further, but having been out all day and only seen subsequent comments just now, that was rather the point I was making. Crick and co at Ch4 have form as to being vehemently anti Tory and take a pop at the Tories wherever they can. Their left wing biase is legendary.

    Having had the complaint made, the police had no option but to open investigations and having completed said investigations, they had to pass to the cps with a recommendation to prosecute or not.. I suspect they were submitted with a recommendation of no further action, or similar. The one remaining case relates to different time schedules and the cps has said that the fact that the case is still open should not be taken as an indication that any prosecution is more or less likely.

    I in no way inferred that this was politically motivated by the police, who have a job of work to do. However a lot of their time and resources have been diverted but through no fault of their own. This should all have been left with the electoral commission, who have already laid a large fine on the Tories for central expenses irregularities.

    As Labour and the LDs have made very little of these investigations, I suspect that their thinking is along the lines of, ‘There for the grace of God go we.’

    Anthony
    I apologise for carrying a past subject onto a new thread, as I know that you ask us not to do it.

  34. The markets seem ver happy today, the Footsie 100 and 250 are both up as is the £ against the $ and the Euro.

  35. London – Green vote

    It would be good to see the tabs in detail but the sum/changes of the 4 London parties suggests Greens are on 3% (-2). The -2 has probably gone to LAB or LDEM, with no tabs its impossible to say. The tabs would also show us the “loyalty” info which I find v.useful.

    Not that big a deal at 3% but Green direct switchers or tactical voters on 8June would make the threshold for a LAB->CONkip move a bit higher in many seats reducing the chance of some of the more marginal LAB seats turning blue. Can’t see where it would create a “gain” but every little helps…

  36. @ToH

    Remember that currency movements are not always about the UK… Trump’s dismissal of the FBI head is seen as pretty destabilising in the US, hence USD was predicted at open to fall at US open, and the market comment is that Euro falls are a correction to overbuying in the lead up to Macron’s expected victory.

    The FTSE 100 seems to be led by the energy companies although there is little market chatter as to why – perhaps a feeling that yesterday’s markdown after the May price-cap announcement was overdone?
    However it is part of a general movement upwards and mirrored in FTSE250, so there is clearly positive market sentiment out there amongst investors.

  37. Chrislane1945:
    London voted very remain,more pro-Labour now(paraphrase)
    Be very careful on what you mean by London,the old L.C.C. maybe,current G.L.A. not so sure.Here in sunny Metropolitan Essex Labour not so hot.You only have to count how often the local papers carry the stream of letters calling for U.D.I. bemoaning what has LONDON ever done for us and pinning to re-join Essex County

  38. BIGFATRON

    Fair comment but i think you would agree that the markets have generally been favourable to the UK since the election was called. Generally the markets look for political stability and a larger government majority would probably provide that IMO.

  39. Interesting to read the write up on the YouGov Polls in the ES. Two page spread with pictures of the five exposed Labour MPs who are remainers – with the article stressing the collapse in UKIP vote favouring the Tories.

    Whilst not explicitly stating so, I took the article to be a prompt to remain voters to vote tactically in favour of remain leaning MPs. Wouldn’t put it past Osborne ;-).

  40. @ToH
    Yes – markets like stability, and a Tory win is factored in.

    The risk for May is that there seems to be a consensus that a larger Tory majority will allow may to face down the ultra-Brexiteer hard right of the Tory party an achieve a ‘softer’ Brexit.

    I am less convinced – I suspect May will use a large majority to push through a ‘harder’ Brexit, with the risk of pissing off her small, moderate wing, but permanently ending the larger Tory rift on Europe.

    However, while politically astute, this would certainly disappoint the markets… we shall soon see!

  41. RUDYARD

    All to play for – Really!

    London polls are not as bad for Labour( despite Corbyn and possibly because of Khan)

    Wales polls are not as bad for Labour( possibly because they have airbrushed Corbyn out of the picture)

    The actual poll on 8th June will be decided on which leader people believe is best equipped. EVERY poll picks TM and about 2/3 of Labour MPs think the same. All to play for – really. What evidence is there in previous elections that voting intentions move significantly without a major event.

  42. Hi,

    I’m not sure if many of you have seen this but Iain Dale (LBC) has been through each seat and come up with a seat prediction.

    http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/05/07/general-election-2017-seat-by-seat-predictions-final-totals-we-re-heading-for-a-conservative-majority-of-130ish

    Believes the Conservatives will have a majority if 130ish.

    Sounds a plausible prediction.

  43. Andy the last shock of Labour doing better than expected was their win in the snap election of 1974. It would be a shock this time if the Conservatives did not increase their majority .

  44. Dez – it would be a shock if they only increased their majority to around 50.
    well I would be shocked.
    I have gone for majority of 94 by dint of predicting 372 seats but accept it could be bigger.

  45. Dez – it would be a shock if they only increased their majority to around 50.
    well I would be shocked.
    I have gone for majority of 94 by dint of predicting 372 seats but accept it could be bigger.

  46. From @Rudyard, this shows the problem Labour currently have – “Labour doing well in the metropolis, I think.”

    Labour losing 5 seats in London is seen as ‘doing well’, pretty much sums up the delusional levels of back slapping among Corbyn’s fans.

    Until a more realistic assessment creeps in, I can’t see Labour making much progress.

  47. @Jim Jam

    Currently I would be very surprised if Lab won more than 200 seats given the circumstances – 180 is optimistic IMO.

  48. Policies like scrapping tuition fees, which is allegedly in the Labour manifesto, may well up their figures further.

    Stick to my line, the Tories will not significantly increase their majority, and will lose a lot of seats around London.

  49. @Dez
    ‘ the last shock of Labour doing better than expected was their win in the snap election of 1974’

    Labour also exceeded expectations in 2010 and 1983.

  50. BIGFATRON

    Again I agree with you. I think TM is much more straightforward than her critics think. I think Brexit really does mean Brexit as far as she is concerned and Leavers will be hoping that’s right.

    The Tory manifesto may tell us more.

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