The Evening Standard has a new YouGov poll of voting intentions in London, the first London poll we’ve seen since the election was called. Topline voting intention figures are CON 36%(+2), LAB 41%(+4), LDEM 14%(nc), UKIP 6%(-3). Changes are from the last YouGov London poll, conducted back in March.

Compared to the general election this represents an increase of one for the Conservatives, a decrease of three for Labour and an increase of six points for the Lib Dems. A two point swing from Lab to Con is significantly less than polls are indicating for Britain as a whole (currently around about a six point swing). This difference is mostly because the Tories are doing worse in London than elsewhere and the Liberal Democrats are doing better; Labour’s drop in support in London isn’t that different to their drop elsewhere in the country.

On a uniform swing, the Conservatives would looking at taking Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Hampstead & Kilburn amd Enfield North. It would be enough for the Lib Dems to reclaim Twickenham, and to put Kingston & Surbiton and Bermondsey & Old Southwark in contention.

Earlier today we also had a new Panelbase GB poll. Topline figures there are CON 48%(+1), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(nc). Full Panelbase tabs are here


286 Responses to “YouGov/Evening Standard poll of London – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 14, UKIP 6”

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  1. Alec

    That may have been true some time ago but not recently. I have tried to make balanced comments since the referendum and often shown good data for the EU so certainly not guilty now.

    I am sure you would agree with what I just posted, yes ?

    “As it happens both Alec and I agree on this and have been foecasting it for months. We both thought the OBR and the Gov. BE were wrong with their earlier forecasts and posted as much here.”

  2. @Trevor

    Ah, I wasn’t making a case about the electability or otherwise of Labour. I was just addressing the question of to what extent media might make the “back to the seventies” meme stick. I was just pointing out that the young do not necessarily see it as being that “old”, or if they do, maybe they prefer it to summat even older.

    This in no way means I think it’s going to ensure a Labour victory. They’d have to be really radical – storage subsidies, compulsory membership of polling panels, spaceports in every county and lots of Maglev etc – to walk it….

  3. Pete B

    My wife loves the DM but rarely reads the politics. I think you are absolutely right.

  4. Liberals

    Great news .Having found a £100 bn money tree in the garden of vince yesterday it has now been discovered that it is an orchard. The second money tree is to finance 50k new Syrian refugees which Lib s promise to import into the uk. to be paid for ,they announce , by future tax receipts from these people when they find work. The future receipts money tree.Its a wonder no one spotted it before.No doubt the children amongst them can immediately be found work as chimney sweeps

    Farron said that if Britain were ravaged by war we would want syria to take us in…. er ….no but perhaps we would appreciate camps closer to home. I think there is only one person being taken in . On the other hand at least YvetteCooper will have someone to fill her spare bedroom.

  5. Carfrew
    According to the MRLP site, Labour have already nicked many of their past policies – e.g. reducing the voting age, St George’s day as a Bank Holiday, and an energy policy.

    This time, one of their key planks as part of the Brexit situation is to make the Germans pay for all cases of German Measles (and the Spanish for Spanish flu).

  6. Alec

    It seems today is one of those days when we are generally in agreement.

    Having read your 4.09 on the Tory campaign and 5.05 on election spending I find I can more or less agree with both.

    I am waiting to see what is in the Tory manifesto, I have been a
    little critical so far as I posted the other day.

  7. @ S THOMAS

    It’s somewhat bizarre that the Lib Dems should chose to talk about taking in 50k Syrians. You wonder what they’re thinking – it’s hardly going to be a vote winner in the way that – say – a cut to VAT would be!

  8. @PETE B

    “Re right-wing papers being more popular. I wonder if this is by and large because they are more fun and entertaining as well as having a political side.
    There is a strand of the left-wing which comes across as very earnest and humourless, in the tradition of the Ranters and Levellers. This isn’t what most people want with their cornflakes.”

    —————–

    Well this may apply somewhat, in some cases. Some of the “entertainment” involves camera peeps harassing peeps, or a focus on things like cellulite which some might baulk at because nit wanting to promote the superficial.

    Similarly, pandering to prejudice might be rewarded by sales, but some might be wary of that too.

    Meanwhile, I don’t think you can say that Times, Telegraph etc. are a barrel of laughs and entertainment. It’s just that owners tend to be rich capitalists, and hence tend to the Liberal on economics. Interestingly, not so Liberal when it comes to EU/free movement, but then newspapers don’t tend to need an army of fruit-pickers on minimum wage….

    Press in the US has been dominated by the liberal too. It’s a problem for socialism, because if they don’t want the nightmare of a state-run media arm, then it means embracing capital and buying their property own paper.

    Unless, they’re like the Graun and go down the trust route. But politically, Labour should have set up some trusts or summat. Things were more favourable in the last though, until peeps like Murdoch started buying the Sun etc.

    Old Labour didn’t see how things could change, and Blair didn’t care because a liberal media suited him…

  9. (…favourable in the past…)

  10. TOH
    Thanks. Would I be right in thinking that your wife is not too likely to vote for Mr Corbyn despite rarely reading the political bits of the Mail?

  11. @ PETE B

    I will eat my hat if the Morning Star starts publishing semi-nudes of Pippa Middleton ;-)

  12. Carfrew
    Times and Telegraph have good cartoons and puzzles. First bits I read!

  13. @SSSIMON

    “Of couse it is, when hasn’t it been? By circulation, it’s approximately 80% Tory. If that’s not the definition of domination, I don’t know what is ;-)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/07/how-left-or-right-wing-are-uks-newspapers/

    ————–

    That’s perceptions of media, as opposed to what the papers actially support. E.g. The Graun are openly Liberal (Liberal but not with the truth” etc.” and supported Liberals in 2010 and in Coalition.

    Independent advocated Liberals in 2015…

    (The Beeb is my own view, but let’s face it, liberal economics, liberal in EU/free movement… it’s Liberal…)

    A lot of liberalism is disguised, ever since the Sixties when liberals realised their vote was in the toilet and had been for decades and they needed to start taking over the other parties. (Selsdon Set for the Tories, Jenkins et al within Labour…)

  14. @ SSSimon

    “I don’t think people enjoy preachy moralising, and there is a strand in the PC left (especially post-90s) that can be a bit like that.”

    Completely agree, the feminist t-shirts worn by some in the Labour party is an example, the left has turned being outraged into a hobby, and you should feel guilty if you are white, not on benefits and own a home.

    As for Labours manifesto, as a Tory it will come as little surprise that most of it I find to be, shall we say, dated. I keep waiting for Arthur Scargill to pop up.

    But some policies I actually do like, I would have no problem at all with the Rail service going back into national hands and I think the idea of new power stations is fantastic, I could never understand how anything as important as the countries power network was given the green light to be sold off.

  15. @PETE B

    “Times and Telegraph have good cartoons and puzzles. First bits I read!”

    ————

    Yes, I wasn’t suggesting they were entertainment-free!! Just that they don’t have extra “entertainment” angles that might give others pause. E.g. They are not inundated with pics of cellulite etc.

    They have your regular, everyday entertainment. Unflattering pics of Corbyn etc…

  16. I read the Guardian and it is liberal (small l) but barely covers the Lib Dems nowadays. UKIP get more coverage. It is clearly anti-conservative but leans towards Labour rather than LD.

    The puzzles are excellent but the quick crossword often needs knowledge of fashionable cuisine and drinks.

  17. TOH

    I do hope your wife wasn’t too upset by the drought story in the Daily Mail.

    With their usual accuracy, they illustrated it with photographs of Eilean Donan Castle at low tide – and at high tide!

  18. @ CARFREW

    How else would you define left-right? There is obviously no objective standard, we rely on perceptions, as these are all invented definitions/categories. I do agree with much of your point though.

  19. SSSIMON
    @ CARFREW
    “It isn’t Tory-dominated, there’s quite a lot of liberalism in there…. Graun, Independent, Beeb etc.”
    Of couse it is, when hasn’t it been? By circulation, it’s approximately 80% Tory. If that’s not the definition of domination, I don’t know what is ;-)

    @SSSimon

    I hear moaning about right wing press almost daily, but it’s much more complex than that. We have the Independant, Mirror, Guardian, Socialist worker that people can read if they want. The problem is, not enough people want to buy them. The Daily Mail and Sun have massive circulation, and the stories reflect what the readers want to hear. The left have never really got this in my view.

    Rich

  20. TOH: “f you actually bothered to read my posts instead of trying to score points …. So as you can see i am my usual balanced but optimistic self, no rose coloured spectacles at all.”

    I read your post, in which you said: “Very benign reort from the Gov.BE. Inflation peak this year now forecast a little lower.”

    I pointed out that the inflation forecast for this year had in fact been increased from 2.4 to 2.7%. Interpreting that as “a little lower” meets my definition of rose coloured spectacles.

    As for, “very benign,” that opinion is at odds with all the comments by specialists. To take a typical example, a market analyst at IG said:

    “The downturn in UK economic data over recent months has been there for all to see, yet this morning provided a perfect overview of how British industry is struggling of late. Negative construction output, manufacturing production and industrial production in March goes to show how tough the current business environment is for firms. However, probably the most damning number was the trade balance for goods which showed that despite the boost of a weaker pound, we are seeing consumers continue to focus on imports over domestic products.”

    So I’m not trying to score points, just to provide a reality check. You shouldn’t expect to go unchallenged when you describe a rise as a fall.

  21. @ BLUE BOB

    I think you’re right. Labour pre-1980s still appealed to a large constituent of ‘Tory socialists’ and others whose views were socially conservative and a bit ‘rough around the edges’.

    With Blair came a whole new generation that has utterly alienated (and ridiculed/disparaged) those voters, some of whom I think were/are instead attracted to aspects of UKIP policies yet not quite able to switch to the Tories.

  22. @ RICH

    I’m not moaning lol, but I agree, the right have been consistently better at marketing their message and vision than the centre/left-wing press. And Blair didn’t even bother to try, he just co-opted Murdoch.

  23. People read what they want to read , papers print what their readers want to read, that way they will sell more papers.

    It’s the readers that ultimately determine what political slant the papers have.

  24. @Carfrew

    If you were all like Martin Schulz you wouldn’t have a problem.

  25. Somerjohn

    “I pointed out that the inflation forecast for this year had in fact been increased from 2.4 to 2.7%. ”

    I actually thought the inflation figure had dropped from 2.9 to 2.7 so I agree my mistake on that but in no way rose tinted spectacles.

    I note you ignored the fact that I had forecast the down turn and the reason for it. You were just trying to score points and got caught out.

    :-)

  26. SSSIMON

    Nice Yougov link on the papers. I’m slightly scared of the people who think the Daily Mail is very left wing though.

  27. @Rich

    “I hear moaning about right wing press almost daily, but it’s much more complex than that. We have the Independant, Mirror, Guardian, Socialist worker that people can read if they want.”

    ———–

    Lol, Rich, the Graun is avowedly Liberal and says so, Independent urged peeps to vote Liberal at the last GE… The Socialist Worker isn’t exactly mainstream Labour is it.

    The Liberal press has done a great job of making some peeps think Liberalism is the same as Labour. Moreover, they have quite a few peeps thinking Liberalism is typically Conservative too. Quite some going…

    It used to be the case that the Liberals were the radical, deregulating, free marketeers, and the Conservatives were anti-radical, preferring the great tradition of British Gradualism (of which I am quite an admirer). They seek to Conserve, avoid needless upheaval, the clue is in the name.

    MacMillan, was your typical Tory, not seeking to radically impose, but to shape what already was. In some ways he sought to go with the flow and outdo Labour.

    But starting with Heath, the Liberals who took over have persuaded peeps that Liberal economics is Conservative. Then the same happened to Labour. Jenkins tried and failed, Blair finished the job.

    A chunk of peeps now believe (neo) Liberal economics is some kind of orthodoxy crossing party lines. Because that’s what the media have been pushing.

    But polling shows many everyday peeps aren’t swayed by this Liberalism, hence they support some nationalisation, and don’t want too much of your liberal free movement either.

  28. @Wolf

    Eh?

    What problem do I have that being Schultz would solve, and why? (Somehow I don’t think it’s going to solve my pressing concerns, like whether I can get hold of this valve compressor I’d like that’s being p discontinued, or how to best eliminate jitter from my audio chain etc…)

  29. Referring to media being right-wing, there is absolutely no way The Independent is neutral! I think they’re more left-wing than the Guardian.

  30. TOH: “I note you ignored the fact that I had forecast the down turn and the reason for it. You were just trying to score points and got caught out.”

    That’s because my post was about your odd characterisation of Carney’s report, not what you may or may not have previously forecast in terms of a downturn. Commentators have been united in calling it a day of gloomy economic statistics (‘ropey’ was one description) but you (and Sea Change) think it was very benign. Feel free to go on denying any element of rose tinting to your specs, but if you’re going to assert that I’ve been ‘caught out’ I think you need to explain your reasoning.

  31. @bluebob
    ” I would have no problem at all with the Rail service going back into national hands ”

    I read somewhere (might even have been on here) something that summed up my view of the old British Rail. If you want to go back to nationalised railways you are either too young to remember what it was like or you are too old and you have forgotten.Unfortunately I can remember – nice idea in theory but no thanks.

  32. “Referring to media being right-wing, there is absolutely no way The Independent is neutral! I think they’re more left-wing than the Guardian.”

    ———

    Oh they’re not neutral, they’re liberal. They voted Liberal in the GE. Liberalism isn’t neutral and often confuses. It tends to be pro immigration and EU, hence rightists think they’re left wing. But on economics, they’re all free trade and deregulation, so leftists think they’re right wing.

  33. Somerjohn

    Rather than leave you in the dark I have decided to explain, not that you should need it.

    The reason I posted what I did originally was because what the GovBE said was benign as far I was concerned. My own forecast for this year is worse than his, so his latest comments are benign to me and are still benign to me

    You then came out with your normal doom and gloom about the economy in an attempt to score points. You failed since you had obviously not read my posts since the drop in the value of the £, with my forecast of a tightening of consumer spending due to inflation, and my criticism of the BoE and OBR for their forecasts of GDP growth and inflation this year.,

    Obviously I cannot be accused of wearing “rose coloured spectacles” if I think things will be a little worse this year than the pundits you quote.

    Finally i chose to call myself balanced because I have posted good economic news about the EU as well as the UK. In contrast I cannot remember a single post from you which has anything good to say about the UK or it’s economy.

    So you were caught out trying to score points and failing which has caused me some amusement. Got it?

  34. TOH

    OK, I’ve got it. You think yesterday’s downgrades by Carney, the drop in industrial and construction output and the doubling of the trade deficit were benign, when expert commentators and analysts were united in calling them dreadful. Because you were expecting them to be even worse.

    If you had written something like, “a bad set of figures, but actually a relief as I was expecting them to be even worse,” that would have been completely fine. But to call them benign, without explaining why, strongly suggests rose coloured specs. Let’s leave it there, and leave others to judge who’s got caught out here.

  35. Somerjohn

    LOL

  36. Somerjohn

    I should have added that I am very happy to leave to others to decide.

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