There have been two new voting intention polls today. A new Kantar poll has topline figures of CON 44%(-4), LAB 28%(+4), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 8%(+1). The Tory lead has narrowed significantly since their previous poll a week ago, but this is likely to something of a reversion to the mean after very large 24 point lead in their previous poll. Full tabs are here.

There was also a Survation poll for Good Morning Britain. This had topline voting intentions of CON 47%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%, GRN 3%. The Tory lead is in line with other companies, but the Lib Dems on just seven is lower than we’ve seen in other recent polls. Note that the poll was conducted by telephone, meaning there are now phone polls from Survation and Ipsos MORI, with all the other companies polling this election using online methodologies. That said there don’t seem to be any obvious difference between the Tory leads in telephone and online polls (though the two phone companies are showing the lowest UKIP figures). Tabs for Survation are here.


150 Responses to “Kantar and Survation voting intention polls”

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  1. @Richard

    I am not sure if that will eventuate. London is one place where the progressive alliance and tactical voting could come into play e.g. I think Labour will hold Tooting for example.

  2. Catmanjeff

    I doubt it. New Labour MPs elected in 2015 can expect a first time incumbency bonus similar to that enjoyed by Tory MPs in marginals won in 2010.Despite the swing to Labour in England in 2015 many of them increased their majorities significantly. If Labour can restrict the Tory national margin to 11%/12% some of those MPs are likely to survive.

  3. Attention has understandably focussed on Corbyn’s position after his almost certain defeat on June 8, but what would a poor result for Farron look like? I can’t imagine Farron being forced out, but the fact is with 48% of the country having voted Remain, with one of the most left-wing leaders the Labour Party has ever had, a Tory party generally reckoned to have shifted to the Right since Cameron resigned… the circumstances could not be more favourable for the Lib Dems, and yet their share of the vote is likely to increase by 3 points max, maybe less.

  4. @Julius

    Of course, such analysis can’t handle extreme tactical voting that well. Some safer seats might switch, and some really marginals seats hold on.

    Overall though, Tory and Lib Dem gains are highly likely.

  5. @Graham

    They are no more than guestimations really, I know.

    I do think the predictions of the Conservatives winning well over 400 seats unlikely, as is Labour falling below about the 160 mark.

  6. CMJ

    “such analysis can’t handle extreme tactical voting that well.”

    Indeed. In any case, we should be moving on to the critical question of today’s English politics – “Is it a boy’s job, or a girl’s job?”

    Quite takes me back to the 1950s!

  7. Reading “the British election of 2015” by Cowley and Kavanagh

    “Labour had not planned on Scotland being an important part of their 2015 election battleground. Their inability to counter the post referendum surge…in part revealed their complacency in their safe seats over the years. Many local parties had collected little data on voters and this neglect undermined any attempt to launch a last-minute targeting exercise”

    I imagine history is repeating itself right now…

  8. Richard

    “Labour had not planned on Scotland being an important part of their 2015 election battleground.”

    Not surprising, since they hadn’t done that in the last 40 years either.

    The role of Scottish Labour MPs wasn’t to “beat the Tories”, (other than in exceptionally close English elections, votes from elsewhere are irrelevant as to is the UK government|) but to provide a loyal group of votes for the leadership to overcome resistance from English Lab MPs to their policies for England.

    Whether under 20th century administrative, or 21st century political, devolution, Scots MPs had different policies applied here anyway.

    As has been often noted, if every Scottish constituency had returned a SLab MP in 2015, it would still have been a Tory Government in the UK.

  9. KANTAR

    CON 44%(-4), LAB 28%(+4), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 8%(+1)

    The figure of 8% support for UKIP is plainly wrong and out of line with all the other polls and the local election results.

    Allowing for that factor the Tory lead would be very similar to the mean of other recent polls.

    Other findings in the poll make very gloomy reading indeed for Labour.

    When asked to associate characteristics with either Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, the British public were most likely to think of Theresa May as decisive (72% vs 28% Jeremy Corbyn), a good negotiator (66% vs 34%), and having good attention to detail (66% vs 34%).

    In contrast, Jeremy Corbyn is more likely to be seen as is ‘in touch with ordinary people’ (57% vs 43% Theresa May) and ‘interested in’ other people’s lives (55% vs 45%).

    Sun journalists, or even burglars are ‘in touch with’ and ‘interested in’ ordinary people’s lives. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we want them them as Prime Minister.

    These potential positives for Jeremy Corbyn however, are the very ones which, we, historically always attribute to Labour Leaders over and above Tory leaders, and especially when the Tory leader is already Prime Minister.

    Corbyn’s lead in them however is far lower than previous Labour Leaders leaders have achieved.

    Foot for example had a bigger lead than this over Thatcher in 1983, before polling the worst share of the vote for Labour since the 1919s. A feat which will, according to these polls be beaten by Corbyn this time round.

    Whether ‘in touch or interested’, Corbyn is set to poll the lowest share of the vote for Labour for nearly 100 years.

    The ‘qualities’ in which Corbyn has his marginal lead are the ones which feature least in people’s mind when they choose a Prime Minister, whereas the ones in which Mrs May has her big leads are the ones which figure most, and her still, nevertheless adequate, showing in the ones in which she is behind, will ensure she isn’t electorally disadvantaged.

    Only one in ten (11%) of likely voters are still unsure who they will vote for on June 8th and 5% prefer not to say who they will vote for. Past experience tends to suggest that these relatively modest percentages, considering there’s still so long to go, seem to suggest that this election is already over. People have made up their minds.

    Experience also shows that people who claim to be ‘unsure’ or ‘won’t say’, tend to have a pro Conservative, bias or in the end, don’t vote at all.

    While one-in-ten likely voters have yet to decide how they will vote, it seems extremely unlikely that these individuals will swing the electoral balance towards the Labour party.

    Those that have not expressed a voting intention are currently more likely to associate Theresa May than Jeremy Corbyn with being a good negotiator (67%), being decisive (68%) and having good attention to detail (67%).

    These skills are likely to be important to voters because they know they are not just voting for a party but for a Prime Minister to negotiate the UK’s exit from the EU.The recent campaign appearances from Theresa May suggest that she has cottoned on to this fact.

    It’s also clear that Corbyn knows it. Hence at his campaign launch he was trying to tell the world that the election ‘isn’t about Brexit’ and was trying to claim that’s all sorted out now, and all we have to do is sit back and enjoy the benefits and opportunities it offers.

    Twitter and Facebook users continue to engage the most with the official Labour party account.

    Over the last week the @UKLabour Twitter account has had twice as many retweets as the @Conservatives account (28,551 compared with 14,371).

    On Facebook, posts made by the Labour party have been shared 58,049 times over the last week, whereas posts made by the Conservatives have only been shared 16,404 times.

    These latter figures are interesting, but do no more than confirm something I’ve always highlighted.

    Corbyn supporters tend to talk almost exclusively to each other On Line and therefore delude themselves into thinking that everyone agrees with them, whereas Conservatives, who are, as a whole, more community orientated, and social, go out and talk to actual people and, more importantly, actually turn up and vote.

  10. “Corbyn needs to fully join the “progressive alliance””

    If the smaller parties want to do that why don’t they merge with the Labour Party – still the only opposition party likely to form a government – and stand down their opposition.

    In other words learn to compromise and stop fragmenting the left.

    The Labour party is already a coalition. Why don’t the other parties join it if they want one and get behind a common manifesto.

    So when the Tories win, the smaller parties only have themselves to blame by their very existence.

  11. In respect of the CPS decision

    The basis of the decision will be on two measures:
    Is there a 50% chance of a successful prosecution?
    Is it in the public interest to pursue the case?

    Given that on any measure it must be in the public interest in a democracy to pursue a prosecution for electoral misconduct that means the test in play will be prospects of success. The question on that will inevitably revolve around intent given the electoral commissions findings as to the breach of rules. The legal definition of intent is the natural and ordinary consequences of ones actions, however in a fraud case you must add dishonesty as part of the mix.
    UKPR posters can look at the decision eventually taken to consider their view of how the CPS has approached this:

    PS I imagine that this decision will be taken by the DPP.

  12. A Daily Telegraph report today says that the Labour Party faces a devastating split after the election with as many as 100 of its’ MPs set to form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn.

    “Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about forming a new Progressives group in Parliament,”

    Given the likely number of seats Labour will win this ‘Progressive’ Group could be twice the size of the remaining Corbynite factlon.

    If so Labour will cease to be the main Opposition Party in Parliament. Corbyn will be kicked out as Leader of the Opposition, and what left of Labour might even be a smaller party than the SNP.

  13. Bournemouth Women is right of course with

    ”As has been often noted, if every Scottish constituency had returned a SLab MP in 2015, it would still have been a Tory Government in the UK.”

    The outcome of the 2015 GE was determined by Labour taking insufficient Cons net seats in E&W and by the Tories taking enough LD seats to form a majority.

    I guess without the SNP surge, though, some E&W voters may have stuck with Labour which could have made a difference; and, even with the same result in RUK Ed Milliband may well have done a Kinnock and stayed on.

  14. @WB

    I am assuming that somewhere the Tories have a locker full of anti Mr Corbyn material, which they consider to be dynamite. I think we would all say that thus far the Tories campaign has largely been laissez faire.

    I wonder whether within a few hours of the CPS announcement, some of the dynamite may be taken out of their locker, with a view to taking the CPS announcement (whatever it may be) off the top of the news agenda.

  15. @Aberdeenangus

    It’s a Lynton Crosby Campaign, so you can put your house on the fact there will be truck loads of highly personalised manure locked and loaded.

    That’s what he does.

  16. Before Anthony does I’d like to remind people that if the DPP does decide to take action in 2hrs time at 11.00 then the matter becomes one for the Courts and sites like this must be careful not to make public comments that might be seen to prejudice the case.

    Anthony has enough to. Do with his day job, keeping up with the election polls and posting here without having to watch us to keep out of the reach of Lawyers or in court himself.

    Peter.

  17. @Aberdeen Angus

    JC’s career and positions are so well known that I doubt there would be much more that Crosby could do.

    My personal view is that there is no way the CPS would announce any criminal charges against MPs during a general election campaign. That they are making the announcement today suggests that no such charges will be brought.

  18. @Peter Cairns

    Entirely right Peter, but someone better tell Michael Crick, Krishnan G-M, and Jon Snow who appear to be judge, jury, and executioner!

  19. @RAF

    The timing is interesting. Those from the Tory side will argue that making such announcements now during a GE campaign is political in the extreme. Those on the other side would also argue that not making an announcement now, purely because it is in the middle of a GE campaign is also a political decision.

    I just think that whenever an announcement is made, the CPS / DPP have to be very very sure that they have a evidence that the timing of the release of information was entirely consistent with normal timings and it was neither accelerated nor delayed.

  20. If @CMJ’s guessestimates of London seat changes is true, then it really does spell trouble for Labour. The one shining light for Corbyn supporters amidst the carnage has ben the fact that London was holding up reasonably well, but if Lab and Con really are neck and neck in the capital, that is the last excuse for his leadership removed.

    Not that this simple fact would sway his backers.

    Also interested in @Neil Wilson’s post re the ‘progressive alliance’. We tend to hear this every time the Tories threaten, but sometimes is is posited from Labour supporters in a manner that demonstrates an arrogance within the left.

    The outrage expressed at the Lib Dem backing for Cameron in 2010 was part of this. All the calculations on the left had assumed the Lib Dems were part of the broad left of centre, anti Tory block, as if Labour in some way owned the rights to everything not Tory.

    Something similar is going on now, with the assumption that smaller parties should just get on and join Labour, as if only Labour can be the alternative.

    While in terms of securing a large parliamentary representation or a majority, this is currently more or less true, is isn’t a very good way of thinking for Labour. It’s precisely this assumption that lost them Scotland, and under Corbyn it looks increasingly likely that the no go and never to return areas in England are going to expand rapidly in 2017 as well, because the leadership’s assumption that people will vote for them because they are Labour are breaking down.

    Direct Lab to Con switchers should be ringing alarm bells, but a fracturing of Labour’s vote to smaller parties is also a sign that they need to accept there are other options available to non Tory voters.

  21. Agree with RaF, slap on wrists job.

    Peter’s warning is good so that anybody who wishes to suggest that the Tories are a bunch of cheating B******s (not that I would ever be that partisan myself) should do so before 1100am.

  22. @Aberdeenangus

    I don’t think the timing can be said to be political. I understand the inquiry started early June last year and the CPS has a year from that date to press charges or drop them. So May called the election in the full knowledge this was going to happen.

    @WB

    re the DPP taking the decision I think you are right. At least her background is not too similar to those she would be asked to stand judgement on in this case.

    IMO she has done a pretty good job up to now apart from the Janner case where she could be seen as having been sympathetic to the ‘Establishment’ figure.

  23. And @Peter’s point is also highly salient when considering the impact on polls and the wider election.

    I have friends who believe that a bombshell announcement from the DPP will derail May’s glide path back to No 10, but the issue of sub judice coverage effectively completely neutralises this as a campaign issue.

    Having announcements of prosecutions during the campaign might actually help Cons by effectively burying the issue.

  24. @Alec

    Re: London – it depends where these new Tory voters are located. If they are in the outer London borough, the southern part of Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea, and Kingston upon Thames, it won’t really make that much difference.

    If they are in Hampstead and Kilburn, Ealing and Acton, Tooting, Westminster North etc; then that could be a different story.

  25. OLDNAT

    In view of your post to CMJ about the interview on the “One Show” I took the trouble to watch it. I thought they came across as a very happily married middle class couple, although compared to both of us there like newly weds. From memory your 50th this year? If i am correct about that, best wishes to both of you.

    I suspect it probably cemented the votes of many voters.

    Incidently my wife and I have “his” and her ” jobs” which I won’t bother to list. Nothing wrong in that surely?

  26. Tafia

    The comments from GRAHAM are not acceptable on this site and do not represent the majority of us here – we are fortunate in this country to have freedom of choice.

  27. A few people have mentioned it already but the LDEM slip in the polls might continue.

    They really needed some momentum. Being the obvious party supporting Remain made sense as a tactic for them (from 9% in polls 48% looked obvious, plus pro-EU is message consistent) but it simply hasn’t worked. Never gained much in the polls after the referendum, poor showing in the LEs and now slipping in the polls.

    If you look at the VI versus 2015 vote then LDEM have horrific churn. They have lost 50%+ of their previous voters and picked up what I think is fairly safe to assume is the hard core Remain voter.

    The stop-Brexit play would only have worked if May didn’t get a majority and as that looks unrealistic I suspect more of their Remain-LAB/Green switch-in voters will switch-back to LAB /Green

    Also their election “promises” are expensive and unless supported by high tax hikes simply won’t add up. Add this to memories of Clegg’s failed promises and Remain-CON switch-in voters may switch back to CON.

    Simply put: if a snowball doesn’t keep rolling and picking up more snow then it melts!

  28. Are there any transgender jobs?

  29. @Trevor Warne

    The Lib Dems have for a long period shown a much higher number of their previous voters churning around.

    I think you would find Green voters do the same.

    I’m not sure it’s about any issue or reason in particular, current or previous, but just a function of supporting a small party where tactical voting for others has been common place.

    TM wanted this to be a Brexit election, and the media have played along. This restricts the campaign massively.

    I think the Lib Dems will end up with around 12 seats, but the polling data does not suggest a big break through.

  30. cloudspotter, (et al.)
    “I thought the Wales poll was quite interesting, PC appear to be falling back, which seems surprising to an outsider, if JC is as unpopular as is assumed. Coupled with a some slight improvement in Lab at the expense of the Greens and LD in England, could be ABT voters deciding Labour have the best chance of preventing a Conservative landslide.”

    The smaller parties including the lib dems have been asking for an alliance to beat the conservatives. If this call has been heeded, then I would expect to see a fall in voting intention for the small parties in most places, with just a few exceptions where they have a chance of winning.

    It might be that PC are seeing this same effect.

    Some considerable talk about expecting a last minute smear campaign against JC. Since so many people have been trying to demolish him fo so long, one wonders what new things there might still be. It is possible that by now he has already engineered such a turnaround in the support base of the labour party, thet they might just cheer at information conservatives found repellant.

    On current form, we ought to be expecting a release of incriminating (but also faked) documents against whoever wins the election. The strategy seems to be to get people elected as leaders of the western world, and then make them ineffectual by undermining them.

  31. CATMANJEFF

    “I think the Lib Dems will end up with around 12 seats”

    Snap, exactly where i had them in my forecast yesterday.

  32. Good Morning all, home from morning run through some wards in Bournemouth East.
    CATMANUEFF.
    Corbyn never really expected to be party leader, I think, so his words and actions when he was aligned, to an extent, to certain groups were not expected to be held against him in a GE.
    They will be in the next couple of weeks.

    GRAHAM: I too have been very tempted to jump ship from ancient and inherited allegiances. I suspect that a very large number of ‘Laboury’ people are considering what they (‘we’) have thought unthinkable. The rest of the campaign could make a difference in this regard, turning a landslide into something more cataclysmic.

    Has anyone followed that ‘Buzzfeed’ story with regard to Mr Corbyn and his future?

  33. @CL1945 – that’s an interesting post, that chimes in part with my own sense.

    The more Corbyn and his acolytes talk about achieving a certain level of failure that would be sufficient to keep him in post, the less inclined I feel to support Labour.

    If I had a clear picture that their leader was a decent and honourable man who would give it a go and graciously accept defeat and stand aside for someone else to try to unseat the Conservatives, then they would have my unquestioning support.

    I want to vote for a party, not a cult.

  34. @Julius

    It never ceases to amaze me how right wingers in particular (but also some of the hard left) seem to be completely devoid of the capacity to understand humour.

  35. Not much change. This is a pretty boring election so far. Quiet before the storm?

  36. No charges. Correct decision. This was all a witch hunt by Crick and his left wing associates.

  37. Reposting main point to hopefully avoid automod…

    @Alec

    “The more Corbyn and his acolytes talk about achieving a certain level of failure that would be sufficient to keep him in post, the less inclined I feel to support Labour.”

    Another consideration is the question of what is most likely to be a check on a May landslide government. A largely irrelevant opposition led by an incompetent, or a large cadre of new MPs desperately keen to hold onto their narow majorities in 2022? (Probable answer is neither, in which case the argument for supporting Labour gets weaker and weaker if you believe it is essential Corbyn has to go.)

  38. Robin – I think it is newbies to the site more than anything else struggling with Irony sometimes.

  39. Robert Newark

    Actually Robert, one case is still being considered but basically your quite correct. I have more or less ignored this issue as I never thought it likely that charges would be brought. Apart from anything else “intent ” is extremely difficult to prove.

  40. @Robert Newark

    It may or may not have been the correct decision, we don’t have the evidence before the CPS. What is clear, however, is that it is possible to run a coach and horses through our elecotral expenses laws with impunity. A sum total of £70k in fines is laughable.

  41. Chris/Alec,

    I think the decisions taken by 2015 Labour voters in the scenario you describe will vary seat to seat according to the marginality of the majority over the Tories and how closely the sitting MP is seen to be to JC.

    In seats where Labour got no chance in anyhow I expect a large abstention rate which logically means a greater diversion from UNS in marginal seats
    Maybe I am straw clutching as my Labour MP needs to outperform UNS (as polls stand) by 2-4% (1-2% lower swing) to hang on.

    Although the abstentions in unwinnable seats will increase the UNS of course.

  42. Croy re Tim Farron’ seat.

    My sister is a labour supporter who borrowed the LDs her vote in 2005 (got rid of Tim Collins) and 2010 but went back to labour in 2015 as she reckoned Farron a shoe-in anyway.
    I am seeing her later this week and will ask about her intentions this time, I suspect she will be back to Farron due to the Tory surge and is no fan of Corbyn .I will let you know either way. (She could flip by polling day of course).

  43. New poll

    CON 48% (+1)
    LAB 31% (+1)
    LDEM 8% (-2)
    UKIP 5% (-)
    GRN 2% (-)

    (via @PanelbaseMD / 05 – 09 May)

    Little change except bad news for LibDems.

  44. Re: the Welsh locals. This was from a friend of mine who’s just moved there:

    I have a new saying: “As pointless as voting in a Welsh Local Election.
    Out this morning ready to fulfil my democratic right to vote. Got to polling station to be handed a ballot paper with the instruction “up to four votes”. Opened paper to see four candidates all from the same party.
    Voters for other political persuasions in Pontypridd… Don’t rush, have a lie in this morning.

  45. Robert Newark,

    “This was all a witch hunt by Crick and his left wing associates.”

    Then the Home Secretary and Director of Public Prosecuitions should both be sacked along with 13 Chief Constables for wasting a year and millions of pounds of public money and thousands of hours of police time on a bogus investigation.

    If you are correct and it had no substance then clearly all those involved at a Police, Prosecution and Political level are incompetents to let it get this far.

    Still at least by not prosecuting they have avoided you labelling them as part of the “Liberal Elite” who run this Country and ” Enemies of the People!”

    I think it’s the right decision.

    I suspect that those at Tory HQ who organised it knew it was bending the rules and Agents if not prospective MP’s ( who are really to involved at hustings and knocking doors to watch the money) suspected it might be questionable.

    On the two tests, A better than even chance of a conviction and being in the public interest, the letter sets out that conviction was unlikely and that effectively pursuing individuals responsible under the law for the actions of others would be unfair and putting people who are effectively innocent in the dock is never in the public interest.

    I think overall much like the High Court decision on Brexit what we are seeing here is the justice system working well and talk of “Witch Hunts” is partisan nonsense.

    Peter.

  46. Conservatives cleared of all expense allegations. No crime committed. […snip…]

  47. Using Electoral Calculus with the usual proviso’s yesterdays poll gives a Tory majority of 114 seats and todays 128 seats.

  48. The law is always a witch hunt if it doesn’t do what you want, it seems.

    The CPS decision seems sensible, given the requirement for intent, but no, @Rich, the Conservatives have already been found to be guilty of expenses allegations, and have been fined accordingly.

  49. Rich – actually the file from Kent is still outstanding, which is the only one I thought there was any chance of anything coming from. A crime would require intent and knowledge they were doing wrong – if CCHQ told agents things were central spend and didn’t have to be declared as local expenses and they took that advice in good faith then they would have done nothing wrong, so the CPS decision is unsurprising. As others have said, the problem remains that the law and the line between local and national spent remains a right old mess, so things like this will probably keep coming up in the future until the rules are clarified.

  50. Peter cairns SNP

    “what we are seeing here is the justice system working well”

    I can agree with that Peter the rest of your post is a bit speculative, I put it kindly.

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