There have been two new voting intention polls today. A new Kantar poll has topline figures of CON 44%(-4), LAB 28%(+4), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 8%(+1). The Tory lead has narrowed significantly since their previous poll a week ago, but this is likely to something of a reversion to the mean after very large 24 point lead in their previous poll. Full tabs are here.

There was also a Survation poll for Good Morning Britain. This had topline voting intentions of CON 47%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%, GRN 3%. The Tory lead is in line with other companies, but the Lib Dems on just seven is lower than we’ve seen in other recent polls. Note that the poll was conducted by telephone, meaning there are now phone polls from Survation and Ipsos MORI, with all the other companies polling this election using online methodologies. That said there don’t seem to be any obvious difference between the Tory leads in telephone and online polls (though the two phone companies are showing the lowest UKIP figures). Tabs for Survation are here.


150 Responses to “Kantar and Survation voting intention polls”

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  1. CON leading by something like 16%

    They are still a shoe-in for a majority. And a substantial majority at that.

    Corbyn needs to fully join the “progressive alliance” and stand down Labour candidates in LD/CON battlegrounds.

    However, I’m 99.9% sure he wont do that. In which case I refer back to my first two sentences above…

  2. Other than a slightly inflated UKIP VI, think Kantar is more in tune than those showing CON late 40s and LAB at 30. There will be a shift from UKIP but they will keep an element of the protest vote.

  3. A drop of UKIP support of even 3% vs current VI puts the Kantar Poll very much back on the money. I am still expecting a near 20 point lead on the day as nothing so far has suggested otherwise. The only variable IMO is the level of LD bounce-back. My guess is 12-14%

  4. I don’t think there’s much love lost between Lib Dems and Labour after the former gave the Tories the keys to power in 2010.

    Don’t see Labour giving them a free run at seats either.

  5. Andrew Myers
    ‘I am still expecting a near 20 point lead on the day as nothing so far has suggested otherwise.’
    Except 9 out of the last 10 polls.

    ‘The only variable IMO is the level of LD bounce-back. My guess is 12-14%’
    Why should there be?
    The lib dems have been gradually falling back over the campaign and seem to be heading back towards single figures.

    I thought the Wales poll was quite interesting, PC appear to be falling back, which seems surprising to an outsider, if JC is as unpopular as is assumed. Coupled with a some slight improvement in Lab at the expense of the Greens and LD in England, could be ABT voters deciding Labour have the best chance of preventing a Conservative landslide.

    Perhaps, attacks on the leadership qualities of JC may not have so much effect, as people may well have discounted the possibility of him becoming PM anyway.

  6. Is Leanne Wood considered adversely in Wales?

  7. I see that on the TNS crossbreaks Labour is ahead in Wales. Very small numbers though.

  8. A methodological question that maybe AW or someone else can help me with.

    Let’s say, for the sake of argument and to keep the maths easy, that UKIP only field candidates in half of the constituencies as the other half they want to keep clear for a pro Brexit MP.

    So a pollster surveys a voter in a constituency that does not have a UKIP candidate, but the voter says that they intend to vote UKIP (possibly unaware that they won’t have that option). Does the polling company just discount that person in their calculations or would it feed into the national figures?

    Following on from that question, how do we then interpret the national VI figures. Say, in this scenario, that UKIP are polling at 6%, does that mean that they are at 6% in the constituencies that will have the opportunity to vote UKIP and the rest are ignored, or are they actually polling at 12% in those constituencies with the rest an automatic Zero?

  9. Interesting looking at the Survation polls Scottish figure.

    Brexit looks far less an issue than in England and that could be a factor come June.

    In the UK the main theme seems to be Brexit but in Scotland Indyref2 is much more a factor. Ironicly for both the locals and June the Tories seem to be talking about little else.

    I got a leaflet from the LibDems in the post today and it’s headline was Stop a Second Independence Referendum. Again irony because they want a second EU one, but they didn’t mention that……

    We could see two seperate campaigns with North of the border with the Tory campaign for Westminster very much focuses on a decision to be made at Holyrood that would be vetoed by Downing Street.

    Peter.

  10. There seems to be some changes to the odds in the election betting. The best odds you can get on…………

    Next PM – T May ……………………. 1/20

    Tory majority……………………………..1/25

    Most Seats – Tories…………………..1/33

    Number on Tory seats
    351-375……………………………………5/1
    376-400……………………………………3/1
    401-449………………………………….11/4

    Number of Labour seats
    100-149…………………………………15/8
    150-199………………………………….Evens
    200-249………………………………….13/2

  11. 13/2 is excellent for Labour 200-249 IMO

    I’m not a betting man but if I was I would have some of that, as I believe they say

  12. ProfHoward … from a previous thread

    “What do the Scots think of May”

    …A time to keep wearing one’s vest…

    Boom Boom

  13. @ TOH

    Little value in those odds for anyone looking to make a wager.

    Luckily I placed my bets earlier, all my money is on the Lib Dems not reaching 21 seats, 10 seats or under (took 18/1, now down to 3/1) will pay for the holiday this year:)

  14. @CLOUDSPOTTER “, PC appear to be falling back, which seems surprising to an outsider,

    I am a member of Plaid Cymru. I go out campaiging for them. I voted for them in last weeks local elections. But at the age of 60 I am voting Tory for the first time in my life in June. BREXIT has got to happen without further interference and I’m not the only Plaid member/voter doing likewise.

  15. Different question on UKIP – given how dramatically their support and ambition appears to have collapsed in the last month or so, is there a risk that a significant number of their remaining supporters might get to the polling booth before they find there is no UKIP candidate in their seat?

    It might sound stupid, but if you voted for the several MEPs they got in your region in 2014, and again for a decent showing in your parliamentary seat in 2015, if you had no local elections this year (as most of England didn’t) then it simply might not occur to you that the option won’t be there this time, and now you’ve got a ballot paper in your hand and a few seconds to make a new an unexpected decision.

    Even if it’s only say a third of the 3-4% who still intend to go and vote UKIP, if those people don’t spoil their papers en masse and don’t break evenly between other parties, then it could add a non-negligible skew to the translation of polled support into polled votes?

  16. Daibach
    I believe they do not adjust for whether a candidate is standing, so those 6% include people who will not be able to vote UKIP. However, assuming that UKIP will stand in seats where their vote was highest, this may not have such a large boost to Con figures as some think.

  17. No YouGov poll tonight?

  18. @Cloudspotter. I have said ‘near 20 point lead’ which I take to mean within a point or two. Current average for the last ten polls you mention is 18.5 so I am not quite sure what point you are making? (If you pardon the pun!)

  19. Question on Wales – has anyone published a definitive party vote % for the locals in Wales yet?

    I keep reading that Labour have done better than expected, and that seems self-evident comparing the seats won/lost to the locals poll that put them only 2% ahead of the Tories, but how much was that poll off by?

    Particularly curious because some parts of Wales have a very uneven council setup since the switch to Unitary authorities and all-out elections in the 1990s – my former home of Swansea for example has wards ranging from 1 to 5 members. With opposition split three or four ways in the larger wards, this can give the traditionally dominant party a very large comfort zone indeed in terms of council seats retained, but a significant loss in vote share could be far more significant come the GE.

  20. (for clarity – locals in Wales are all FPTP, so in a 5-member ward you have 5 votes and there will inevitably be 5 candidates you can vote for from each of the parties that are seriously or half-seriously contesting your ward)

  21. Local elections are worthless indications of general election voting intentions as @Tafia has so succinctly illustrated above

  22. @cloudspotter

    Thanks

  23. If Tafia is not a Tory already?

  24. Tafia may well be genuine many times I have heard callers on phone in shows say I am a x voter normally but am voting y this time and then when asked why it seem to me that they where never an x voter?

  25. @Edge of Reason

    “and now you’ve got a ballot paper in your hand and a few seconds to make a new an unexpected decision.”

    If the OMRLP behave in a cunning and thoroughly unlooney way, and field candidates in those dekippered seats, I predict a marked uptick in their vote share.

  26. @ MOSSY

    “worthless” seems a bit strong – I note the various numbers posted previously that show how differently people tend to vote in the different kinds of elections even if held close together, but surely if the main Opposition party has significantly declining support in locals a few weeks before a GE it would be hard to argue that one should expect their GE support to rise significantly from the previous GE?

    More specifically in this case, if the Yougov Welsh locals poll turned out to be absolutely miles off and hugely under-reading Labour support, then that would naturally cast at least doubt on the rather sensational findings of their Welsh GE polls, wouldn’t it? I mean no-one’s expecting polling a rather small six or seven-way electorate in a FPTP system to be as simple as gauging the hundreds of Tory/Lab seats in England…

  27. @GuyMonde

    “If the OMRLP behave in a cunning and thoroughly unlooney way, and field candidates in those dekippered seats, I predict a marked uptick in their vote share”

    You may be right in their 2015 manifesto OMRLY EU policy was, “BRITAIN will exit Europe and join the Duchy of Cornwall to benefit from tax exemptions”.

    :-)

  28. @Blue Bob – are you expecting the Lib Dems to lose any seats?

    One would assume they will get Twickenham back which puts them onto 10.

    Then only need Bath or Southwark and they are back to 11+

  29. I’d expect the Lib Dems to lose several of their existing seats. Richmond Park for a start.

  30. Do not be surprised if it is very close for Tim Farron. The Conservatives have even bought advertising in the local press, there is less enthusiasm for him in the constituency than previously (I live there), indeed some ill at ease feeling he has gone on about a second referendum. On the plus side the constituency voted for Remain, and he is now leader of a minor political party. Also the LibDems will try and get extra bodies to canvas for him from outside the constituency.

    IMO he is not ‘safe’ by any means, but unseating him is still a long shot, but it has definitely narrowed considerably as a possibility.

  31. Tafia

    All we know about anyone on here is what they say about themselves – which may be accurate (or not) [1] – but taking people at face value seems reasonable.

    However, I do note that your post does follow the formulaic structure that I often see on Twitter (though confined to 140 characters) – “I have always voted X, but Y has persuaded me to vote Z – and lots of others are the same.”

    Doubtless, that is simply coincidence – some of those fake Twitter messages could be real! – but the similarity does make one hesitate …..

    [1] For example, I might be a bored Bournemouth woman with extreme right wing tendencies and a rampant English Nationalist. Candy may be a left wing zealot with humanitarian principles …. No, that’s going too far!

  32. ITV says that the CPS decision on charges in the alleged electoral fraud matter will be announced tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/862070002656169985

  33. While I think many Brexiters were/are prepared to vote on a single issue (hence the success of UKIP) I don’t think Remainers, on the whole, have shown a similar propensity to vote on a single issue.

    Thus the idea that the Lib Dems are magically going to pick up lots of votes from Remainers seems far-fetched. They’re sticking with TM for a number of reasons beyond just the EU. Hence the fact LDs are static in the polls and likely to lose seats to the Tory surge.

  34. @ Geoff

    I think 10 seats and under is a real possibility, but essentially it is about value.

    18/1 was far to generous, I spotted it early and took advantage. I have also covered that bet at 4/1 11-15 seats and 16-20 seats.

    If I cashed out now I would triple my money but because I can see no way that they could get 21 seats or more I will stick it out.

    To sum up, it is not about what will happen, it is about taking advantage of a incorrectly priced market.

  35. @Geoff

    Norman Lamb in Norfolk North looks very vulnerable for the LibDems given that UKIP today asked its voters to ‘lend’ their votes to the Conservative candidate. UKIP were third with over 8k votes in 2015 .

  36. Oldnat

    “For example, I might be a bored Bournemouth woman with extreme right wing tendencies and a rampant English Nationalist.”

    Nationalists of the world unite you have nothing to lose but your unions.

  37. RAF

    And this is the BBC version of the same story.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39865801

    Recognising Anthony’s reluctance to have any suggestions of bias in political reporting, I’ll leave people to draw their own conclusions.

  38. FWIW I recognise Tafia posts from a Labour site giving the same reasons for switching to voting Tory, as here … and from other Tafia comments, I’ve read over the months, I’d say that this is unlikely to be a ‘fake’ comment.

  39. You’d think the Lib Dems should be winning seats in remain areas.

  40. Prof Howard

    Chatting with my wife today (over a rather excellent lunch out for her birthday) we agreed that, if the only way Scotland could get its independence was to adopt the rather xenophobic “othering” that seems to characterise English/British nationalism at the moment, then the damage that it would create to society wouldn’t make it worth the candle.

    But we would still need more extensive self-government to protect ourselves against the corrosive aspects of the Brexit “revolution”.

    People are much the same everywhere, and every “ism” has its potential dark side. What makes the difference is whether the political leadership advocates an inclusive or exclusive approach.

    As a County Down man, you will know the disastrous consequences of that leadership following the latter!

  41. Prof Howard

    “You’d think the Lib Dems should be winning seats in remain areas.”

    In E&W presumably? That might happen – but only if the Remainers thought that there was a reasonable prospect of reversing Brexit by voting for them.

    If LDs are considered to be, at best, the 4th biggest party in HoC, what chance is there of that?

    The LDs will, of course, have the chance to present themselves as the “only” party (as they keep saying) in favour of EU/Single Market membership by the TV coverage which will have no BBC “leadership special” for the E&W Greens.

  42. @AW

    Can you please release my second post in moderation!

    (there must be a dodgy word blended in)

  43. I have a long post in moderation, awaiting release.

    In summary, based on YG’s regional data sets:

    Overall Seats

    Con 388
    Lab 179
    SNP 47
    Lib Dem 12
    PC 4
    Grn 1

    Conservative Majority 126

  44. Interesting comments about the London battle (from a very partisan source)

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/05/iain-duncan-smith-in-london-the-conservative-campaign-faces-a-very-different-electoral-landscape.html

    Key points
    – Labour still leads in London polls

    “In too many seats, Labours lead in 2015 was exacerbated by a significant showing by UKIP who took many votes from Conservatives. In the case of my two neighbours, Lee Scott and Nick de Bois, as with others, that was enough for them to lose their seats. Getting those back is a base minimum requirement.
    Yet it’s difficult to generalise about London, particularly when it comes to the Liberal Democrats. For example, whilst their collapse in 2015 was good for Conservatives in South West London, with most transferring their vote to the Conservatives, it was bad for seats in North East London, where they returned to the Labour Party.”

    So where will those 2010 Lib Dems who went Labour in 2015 go this time? If they go back to the Lib Dems, that makes the Tory landslide even larger…very likely in my opinion…

  45. Julius

    “I could mention a particular political party and its problems with anti-Semitism and racism”

    “Britain First” hasn’t been mentioned on here for a wee while! However, now that one of its supporters is a Tory councillor in Moray ……..

  46. @Richard

    My analysis of You Gov London data puts them virtually neck and neck:

    Analysis of Regional You Gov Data 2017 up to 4th May

    London

    Share of Vote (change from 2015)

    Con 36.9 (+2.0)
    Lab 37.5 (-6.2)
    Lib Dem 14.0 (+6.3)
    UKIP 6.3 (-1.8)

    Swing Lab to Con 4.1%

    Seats (change from 2015)

    Con 35 (+8)
    Lab 35 (-10)
    Lib Dem 3 (+2)

    Adjusted for Richmond Park

    Con 34 (+7)
    Lab 35 (-10)
    Lib Dem 4 (+3)

    Seat Changes (excluding Richmond Park)

    Ealing Central & Acton – Lab to Con
    Brentford & Isleworth – Lab to Con
    Ilford North – Lab to Con
    Hampstead & Kilburn – Lab to Con
    Enfield North – Lab to Con
    Twickenham – Con to Lib Dem
    Harrow West – Lab to Con
    Westminster North – Lab to Con
    Tooting – Lab to Con
    Eltham – Lab to Con
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark – Lab to Lib Dem

  47. @OLDNAT

    I thought ‘Britain First’ were Islamophobic rather than anti-Semitic; they tend to target Muslims with their bigotry.

  48. @Catmanjeff

    Thanks for that, it looks like IDS has got his wish – the 2015 Labour vote has shifted to the Lib Dems to some extent, opening the door to lots of Tory gains even in London!

    So much for London being different…

  49. Julius

    To be fair, “Britain First” have never been keen to limit their bigotry and discrimination!

    Anyone who can be “othered” duly is.

  50. @Richard

    Labour looks like getting horribly squeezed between voters switching to Lib Dems in London, and UKIP voters elsewhere switching to Conservative.

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