ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%, GRN 3%. This is the first poll we’ve seen since the local government elections, and has the Tories back up to a lead of 22 points (indeed, according to Martin Boon it’s the Conservatives’ highest share from ICM since 1983). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories did get a boost from their local government success, but we shall see if it is echoed in other polls. Full tables are here.

Also out today was a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions, conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures there are CON 41%(+1), LAB 35%(+5), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-2), UKIP 4%(-2). The previous YouGov Welsh poll was the one with that startling ten point Tory lead, conducted when the general election had only just been called and GB polls were showing twenty-plus point leads. In that context, the narrowing of the Tory lead may be partly a reversion to the mean after the unusual result in the last poll, may be partially a reflection of the slight narrowing we’ve seen in GB polls.

Roger Scully’s write up of the poll is here.


238 Responses to “ICM voting intentions and YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. Could someone explain to me what this VI is all about, and where and why has it where of made an appearance.

  2. @Aberdeenangus – sounds like you are fairly similar to my own background. I set up my business 10 years ago and have done well, although it’s a different sector and I employ fewer people.

    The twin difficulties with Corbyn’s rhetoric I feel is that the ‘attack’ messages can frighten some people who have no reason to be concerned if they deliver what they promise, while at the same time the focus on ‘poor’ people with no carpets and wallpaper and doing three jobs but still using foodbanks, to quite two separate Labour MPs this morning, while worthy and a completely decent objective, tends to put other people off who don’t want to think of themselves as poor.

    That was Blair’s real strength, in that he was able to convey the impression that there weren’t such strict categories within society, and that everyone had something to gain from a Labour vote. Corbyn’s Labour is focusing on the very top and the very bottom, leaving the massed ranks of ‘the middle’ a touch bewildered.

    Interestingly, your on experience might have been affected by the recent budget fiasco on dividend taxation? I’ve only just caught up with the fact that the reduction in dividend tax threshold, which was to cost me a few hundred pounds, isn’t now going to go ahead, as it was lost in the election wash up.

    It’s one example where the Tories didn’t think too much about the small businessmen and women.

  3. Today’s Survation giving Labour 30.2% on a UK basis would be the equivalent of 31% in a GB poll.

  4. @ GORDON DUDGEON – VI = Voting Intention
    Basically when a polling company calls and asks you “who would you vote for” you respond with your voting intention (VI)

    NB The better polling companies (like YouGov) tweak the raw VI data to better fit historic VI versus actual results (in rough terms this take 1-2% off LAB and adds 1-2% to CON). We don’t always do what we say we’ll do!!

  5. It’s a fascinating set of posts today, and I wonder what others think about “immature electioneering”.

    By this, I mean that the Greens, SNP and the Liberals (and UKIP though they are ceasing in relevance by the day) are deeply patronising to us as the electorate by trying to engineer outcomes by stepping aside candidates. We live in a great democracy, and it should be our right to intelligently select our preferred candidate from a full list, rather than have patronising politicians attempting to tell us who we should vote for.

    Labour hasn’t got much right so far in their haphazard campaign but they have at least poured relative scorn on these shenanigans whilst the Conservatives haven’t needed to respond such is their position of strength.

    These minor political parties should show a great deal more respect to their electorate for we are after all their employers.

  6. Alec

    “Just goes to show how some can be fooled by decent PR!”

    For once I agree with Danny, I think the hard Brexit Tory MP’s have always had a vision of a better Britain outside the EU, trading globally with the World unrestrained by EU rules. They may be right they may be wrong, let’s not argue Brexit again but they surely have a vision, which some of us share..

  7. @COUPER2802
    The difference between France and UK as far as political realignments is concerned is that France has a presidential regime and any realignment in legislative (: general) elections is almost always preceded by a victory in Presidential Election of a strong political figure seen as a portent of radical change, such as De Gaulle, Mitterrand and now (hopefully!) our new president. By nature, this kind of victory is a victory of a personal vision over “stricto sensu” partisan interests. What we are experiencing now in France is truly epochal, surveys for the forthcoming GE of June show the new Macronite party “La Republique en Marche” securing plurality and maybe also OM!

  8. Oh dear, I have just seen the BBC online Laura Kuenssberg interview clip with JC on whether he thinks the UK will definitely leave the UK or not.

    It is rather reminiscent of Jeremy Paxman’s famous interview with Michael Howard except JP’s style was notoriously more vicious.

    She must have asked him the question 7 or 8 times are we going to leave the EU or not irrespective of whether we get a good deal or not and he refused to answer the question.

    Whether you are pro Remain or pro Leave his obfuscation can only lead you to conclude that this can only result in more historically safe Labour seats falling in areas of high historic UKIP VI.

  9. French prosecutors have supposedly opened investigations into Macron after details of illegal off-shore banking allegedly involving him were released on-line by hackers.

    Shortest honeymoon ever?

  10. TNS poll
    Con 44%
    Lab 28%
    LD 11%
    UKP 8%

  11. @BAZINWALES

    Thanks for sharing those figures. That would suggest Electoral Calculus is a tad high for the Tories.

    @ANDY WILLIAMS

    Macron will have immunity while President. But if true, this could have a serious affect on him being able to win Assembly elections soon.

    @KEHU

    Not many Leave voters are going to be voting Labour I think now anyway. Labour’s bigger problem is these revolution statements, praising of Marx etc. Plenty of middle of the road Labour voters aren’t going to turn up at the poll booths to support that.

  12. Graham

    Good poll for Labour.

    Tories down 4, Labour up 4.

    The others the same.

    Straight swap from Blue to Red.

  13. Graham

    Good poll for Labour.

    Tories down 4, Labour up 4.

    The others the same.

    Straight swap from Blue to Red.

  14. SEA CHANGE – A simplistic view of French Presidential Immunity. The French Parliament can remove a President for failing to carry out his duties or bringing the Office into disrepute. Then as a former President they may be prosecuted. I have noticed that after a period of relative quiet, ‘Anonymous’ have suddenly become far more active the last few days so it’s probably connected to them.

  15. @Andy Williams

    He’d have to commit a crime while in office for the 2nd way to remove him. Remember though Chirac famously was under investigation but avoided illegal entanglement by getting elected. The Socialist slogan at the time was Vote for the Crook not the Fascist in his run off with Le Pen Snr.

  16. Polling Average (from Britain Elects):

    Con: 46.5% (+8.7)
    Lab: 28.4% (-2.8)
    LDem: 10.0% (+1.9)
    UKIP: 6.7% (-6.2)
    Grn: 2.9% (-0.9)

    Chgs w/ GE2015

    From my calculations, that UKIP swing to Tories should see the Lib Dems lose a few more of their seats. The only challenge to a TM landslide can thus be discounted.

  17. SEA CHANGE – Law has changed. In addition the French Parliament is (or was before next months election) in the very early stages of removing immunity.

  18. @ Danny

    My point is that the labour parliamentary party are not interested in winning and probably want a bad result for corbyn. Though some want to keep their own seats.
    I notice corbyn is currently attacking bankers. Whereas his party was just as keen as the tories to put them back on their feet. This whole business is not about whether his policies are popular or not, but that those mps simply disagree on which are correct
    =========================================

    Agreed. It is the point that many ignore. It is not really Corbyn that the PLP reject, it is his policies. Similarly, the Corbyn-supporting membership support Corbyn because of his policies (and not just because he’s a good man). It is facile to talk about Yvette or Lisa Nandy etc being more electable without also acknowledging that it would take the LP policy offer back to the days of New Labour and Harriet Harman’s disastrous decision on Welfare Reform. The division in the LP is an ideological one and is between the overwhelmingly Social Democratic PLP and the democratic socialism of the grassroots and leadership.

  19. So Tories remain in all polls above 45% in all polls since election called bar 3 I think and at this stage continue with a fairly low-key campaign. Once we enter the last two weeks and the gloves come off I think it is safe to say they will romp home.

  20. @ S Thomas

    ‘S THOMAS
    Robespierre Corbyn
    Contrary to most posters on this site i have long taken the view that the Cobyn instinct on Brexit was right. From day one he wished to embrace it and accept it as the manifestation of democracy that it was.
    If he had not been diverted from that straightforward course by mainly London based Remainers he could, from polling evidence, have achieved a greater share of the collapsing UKIP vote which would have allowed him to deal with the issues he wants to deal with.
    Instead of that he has been marooned in the middle of the road and is being run over.No doublt when they are scraping him up after june 8th his biggest critics will be those who advocated fighting brexit and thus doomed him to lose out on the ukip votes without hoovering up the militant remainers.’
    ————————————————————-
    Spot on IMO

  21. @Graham (or anybody else)

    Have you got the fieldwork dates for the TNS survey?

    Seems strange that there seems to be no account of a further swing from UKIP to Conservatives IMO.

  22. Should have said:

    ‘Have you got the fieldwork dates for the TNS survey please?’

    Sorry for the rudeness implied, was not intended.

  23. That TNS poll has UKIP somewhat higher than other polls of late. Add TNS’s UKIP + Tory numbers and you get 52% which is very similar to other polls. And we know UKIP support seems to be in the process of transferring straight to May.

    So I think TNS poll is a bit of an outlier.

  24. Re Corbyn & the PLP: are we really sure that policy is the real dividing line?

    It’s notable that MPs backed Smith, who had a remarkably similar policy platform, because they didn’t see him as being as much of a liability. Likewise many MPs have openly said that there needs to be a recognition that the New Labour years are gone and policy needs to be reconfigured.

    @S Thomas – I also didn’t have too many arguments about Corbyn’s line on Brexit, such as I could see what it was. His ‘7 out of 10’ comment encapsulated what a lot of people think about the EU, and was the basis for an honest debate within Labour remain circles. I also liked his campaigning around the Posted Workers Directives.

    The point was not what he was saying, but how and when he said it. He was meant to be leading the main opposition party, and he was hardly anywhere to be seen. His campaigning was ineffective and partial, with very limited effort put in.

    He had the chance to introduce a completely separate strand into the debate to counter Cameron, Osbourne and May’s useless fearmongering, by discussing what kind of EU we want to stay in – but he didn’t even bother to turn up most of the time.

  25. @Andy Williams

    Please point to this law I think you may be mistaken.

    The 2007 Constitutional Act governing the Head of State still grants the President full immunity (with the exception of the International Criminal Court). What it does do is suspend the statute of limitation so that any investigation may begin one month after the President leaves office.

  26. CROY

    Sampled 4-8th May.

  27. @Alec “He had the chance to introduce a completely separate strand into the debate to counter Cameron, Osbourne and May’s useless fearmongering, by discussing what kind of EU we want to stay in – but he didn’t even bother to turn up most of the time.”

    May was almost entirely absent from the campaign. She was even nicknamed “Submarine May” by Remainers so let’s not tar her with the Project Fear brush.

    Agree with your statement on Corbyn though. Almost deliberately useless if one was cynical.

  28. “It’s notable that MPs backed Smith, who had a remarkably similar policy platform, because they didn’t see him as being as much of a liability.”

    ——–

    Or they thought they could trust him to ditch the policies once elected…

  29. @CARFREW “Or they thought they could trust him to ditch the policies once elected…”

    My thoughts precisely.

  30. @Syzygy

    ‘It is not really Corbyn that the PLP reject, it is his policies.’.

    Couldn’t disagree more – the inverse of this is more accurate. His policies aren’t that different from Miliband’s – the fundamental reason why those who oppose do so is they think he can’t win for a number of reasons. And to compound maters from the start his own actions (intentionally or not) have alienated large sections of the PLP. I know The Canary et al follow the narrative you adhere to but I’m sorry it does not actually fit the facts of what happened or the motives of the PLP for whom the primary objective is to get into power.

  31. @syzygy

    Corbyn might well have had a better Brexit policy but for his backbencher. It should not have been difficult: criticise May if she goes too far, back her if the EU us being unreasonable.

    But like the LibDems they piled in against May after the dinner leak. And no one in the EU is defending that nowadays.

  32. JOSEPH1832

    “But like the LibDems they piled in against May after the dinner leak. And no one in the EU is defending that nowadays.”

    I noted earlier that even Juncker has admitted it was a mistake.

    I also remember some of the posts on here about how wrong it was for May to make her statement.

    :-)

    :-)

    I

  33. “Couldn’t disagree more – the inverse of this is more accurate. His policies aren’t that different from Miliband’s”

    ———–

    And they didn’t do anything against Mi!iband, right?

    And this idea that they have to ensure he can’t win because… They think he can’t win… Can’t any of the quasies see the problem with this?

    Once he’d been fairly elected, by the membership, surely the best plan is to get stuck into at least making sure you get as many votes as possible even if you don’t win. You don’t act to keep on making things worse. And especially not when Tories were in disarray.

    Anyway, it’s obvious they don’t really like the policies. They might not like Corbs, but how often do you see them talking positively selling the policies? Why would they, the policies show them up. That’s the real issue…

  34. @Danny

    My point is that the labour parliamentary party are not interested in winning…

    Unless a third of them want to lose their seats I’m afraid this statement is nonsense.

  35. Why don’t the Greens keep sabotaging elections?? I mean, it’s obvious they can’t win, so naturally it makes complete sense to keep stuffing the leadership at every turn…

  36. For those interested I have now completetd my own first estimate of the likely 2017 election result. It’s just meant as a bit of fun and others have already made forecasts.

    Cons 43% 380 seats

    Lab 28% 185 seats

    LD 14% 12 seats

    UKIP 5% 0 seats

    Grn 3% 1 seat

    SNP 5% 50 seats

    Majority 110 seats.

    Not scientific, indeed mostly rough calculation (bag of fag packet, if I smoked) plus a lot of gut feel so don’t ask for seat movement.

    At the moment I think Labour will hold more seats than the polls suggest particularly in Remain areas and I am also forecasting a very small LD recovery. I expect SNP to remain dominent in Scotland.

    I will probably revise it in the week before the election.

    I seem to recall that CATMANJEFF was forecasting a majority of approx 120 so very similar

  37. I do tend to agree that Labour’s PLP issue is as much or more about policy than Corbyn per se, although he’s still a weak advocate for the centre-left even without the PLP and MSM trolling everything he does or says.

  38. @davidc

    “By this, I mean that the Greens, SNP and the Liberals (and UKIP though they are ceasing in relevance by the day) are deeply patronising to us as the electorate by trying to engineer outcomes by stepping aside candidates. ”

    Where is the SNP “stepping aside” candidates? As far as I am aware they are standing candidates in all 59 seats in Scotland.

  39. @ THE OTHER HOWARD

    Noted, added to the others.

    I’ll take any further updated projections since the last round 2-3 weeks ago.

  40. French Elections

    Why did the BBC and sky not tell the british viewers what the hacked e-mails etc said ? Would they have been so sqeeamish if they had been leaks from La Pen?

    Could it be that they decided that they would hurt Macron and they made a political judgement not to do so?

  41. “II do tend to agree that Labour’s PLP issue is as much or more about policy than Corbyn per se, although he’s still a weak advocate for the centre-left even without the PLP and MSM trolling everything he does or says.”

    ————

    We already know the issue is likely to be policy, because they have an opportunity to swap Corbyn for someone else, if PLP simply agree to lower the nomination threshold. But they won’t…

  42. “We already know the issue is likely to be policy, because they have an opportunity to swap Corbyn for someone else, if PLP simply agree to lower the nomination threshold. But they won’t…”

    Good point. I assume the grassroots pressure on Corbyn to not stand down, regardless of a drubbing at the polls, must be pretty intense.

  43. @DavidC

    The fptp electoral system does not favour what you think is principled because it leads to any winner being NOT the favourite of an absolute majority of voters in any given constituency. Therefore, if a party believes it has no chance of winning and feels that the candidate and his likely supporters would be more effective in choosing between candidates, one of which he/they much prefer to the other, it makes sense to withdraw. For parties to put up candidates whatever the likely impact of that candidacy on the likely outcome is therefore often counter-intuitive in a single constituency system without AV or SV. There is a very long history (over several hundred years in fact dating back to Whigs and Tories!) of candidates withdrawing in favour of another candidate who they favour more than another- it is inherent in First Past The Post logic.

  44. My predictions – late swing away from the Tories as one party state idea sinks in..

    Cons 41% 351 seats
    Lab 31% 251 seats
    LD 12% 16 seats
    UKIP 6% 0 seats
    Grn 3% 1 seat
    SNP 5% 48 seats
    others the rest
    Majority 52 seats.

  45. Anyone got a view on the number of seats (or %) at which Farron might be obliged to quit as leader of LDEM? Also timing.
    From what I understand Corbyn would hold on until at least the Summer party conference but I don’t know the timing off the decision in LDEM HQ. Clegg went immediately but that was fairly dramatic circumstances.
    Next leader? Shortest odds on Norman Lamb but I doubt he’ll keep his seat (bet against?)

    Lots of people betting on Corbyn and Nuttall having to quit which pushes the betting sites algorithms to offset that risk so thinking 10-1 that Farron goes first seems worth a few quid?

    P.S. If anyone thinking LDEM get above 18.5 seats you can now get 2-1 odds for that!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131086542
    (IG Index mid is 18.5 seats so betfair is the best way to take that punt given it is fixed win/lose. I think they’ll be 10-15 but given the unlimited upside its risky to run a short in LDEM now the market has moved closer to where I expect. Seats seems the better way to play it as % is a tough call – could end up a bit like UKIP 2015 and get a high % but without much pick up in seats)

  46. Good to see May take on another Marxist policy cap on energy prices.The language has certainly changed since Cameron accused Milliband that it was a communist idea.

  47. @ BARDIN1 – there was a poll a while back that asked a question along the lines of “do you think a majority of 100+ would be bad”

    I can’t remember the exact numbers but people seemed to be fine with it.

    My shrink friends tell me that at a societal level the need to “buy-in” to Brexit with a thumping majority followed by 5years without elections is “healthy”.

    Elections are blind, single shot, no conferring events. Complacency is a risk for sure but people are unlikely to vote LAB just to stop May having too large a majority. Almost the opposite, people will “want” to vote May to “buy-in”.

    This BBC write-up about feelings up North is worth a read (of course the BBC are now run by the govt but…)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39847510

  48. @trevor Warne

    I get that, in fact that was my thinking up until this week. I am sure a fair part of the extra 8% the Tories have put on is based on people who voted for Brexit and want to make it stick and have bought the idea that the way to do it is to give ‘strong and stable’ May enough of a majority to see it through.

    I am just coming round more to the view that some of that 8% are probably not naturally (ie long term) Conservative voters and an election campaign is good at exposing the good and bad sides of leaders. May started with the electorate knowing very little about her and a vague ‘mini-Thatcher’ persona which the party did well to emphasise. In contrast Corbyn started with a persona of a bumbler who had lost control of his party. I think more exposure will weaken these images , though not entirely limit them and may make some of the lighter May supporters waver. I also think outside London in the cities there is a residual, albeit diminishing with time, suspicion of the Conservatives on traditional class grounds

    We’ll see when we are named and shamed after the election for our predictions!
    I admit that’s not based on much more than a few polls of the last few days some of which suggest labour has at least stopped the rot.

  49. @TOH

    Indeed Junker has admitted that it was a “serious mistake” and that TM is a “Tough Lady”.

    Now that’s what I call an 180.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/jean-claude-juncker-admits-leak-downing-street-dinner-theresa/

  50. @ToH

    “For those interested I have now completed my own first estimate of the likely 2017 election result. It’s just meant as a bit of fun and others have already made forecasts.”

    No, Sir. As one who correctly predicted the 2015 GE and the EU Referendum, your 2017 GE prediction carries far more weight than those made by the rest of us!

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