ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%, GRN 3%. This is the first poll we’ve seen since the local government elections, and has the Tories back up to a lead of 22 points (indeed, according to Martin Boon it’s the Conservatives’ highest share from ICM since 1983). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories did get a boost from their local government success, but we shall see if it is echoed in other polls. Full tables are here.

Also out today was a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions, conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures there are CON 41%(+1), LAB 35%(+5), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-2), UKIP 4%(-2). The previous YouGov Welsh poll was the one with that startling ten point Tory lead, conducted when the general election had only just been called and GB polls were showing twenty-plus point leads. In that context, the narrowing of the Tory lead may be partly a reversion to the mean after the unusual result in the last poll, may be partially a reflection of the slight narrowing we’ve seen in GB polls.

Roger Scully’s write up of the poll is here.


238 Responses to “ICM voting intentions and YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. What’s funny is that still probably doesn’t take into account all the “Shy” Tories.

  2. I thought the methodologies had all been revised to account for shyness.

  3. I think it could of been over done on the torys this time and over estimating them for a change, but only a guess,

  4. My guess is that the polls still underestimate the Tories as there is still some UKIP votes to move across and Labour voters may stay at home rather than vote for Corbyn as leader.

  5. and then again in Wales best not to even mention Corbyn.

  6. It is a wierd state of affairs when the Tory lead in Wales is cut to six points.

  7. @Andy T

    “and then again in Wales best not to even mention Corbyn.”

    Lab are +5 on this poll and actually did better in Wales in the locals than many expected. I suspect what happened in the bigger cities in Wales last week may be replicated in the GE with Labour keeping pace with their 2015 performances.

    It’s in medium sided and smaller towns that Labour could get demolished.

  8. @Jeseph1832

    “It is a weird state of affairs when the Tory lead in Wales is cut to six points.”

    Yes. This is undoubtedly a most unusual GE. While there is a chance that Lab might bridge the gap by the time of the GE, the Tories will still be net seat gainers in Wales.

  9. The Tories got 32.2% in the 1979 General election in wales, according to Wikipedia their highest to date.

    This would obliterate that by some margin, if the result is anything like that in wales it would be truly extraordinary.

  10. RAF

    It is still astonishing that in Wales they avoid mentioning Corbyn as he might put off the natives.

    In a GE it will be interesting to see if Welsh Labour can shield themselves much against the anti Corbyn drift.

    I agree that Corbyn might be less toxic in London and Northern cities.

  11. The question is who’ll be most embarrassed on June 9th – Corbyn or the pollsters?

  12. This may have been a bigger story in a tighter race. However, the Daily Mirror say that the CPS will make their decision on whether to prosecute up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud later this week.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-10382571#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    I have to say, I think it most unlikely any charges will be brought against MPs. If there are to be charged laid it is far more likely they will be against election agents.

  13. I think Wales has undergone a fundamental change to its society and this is now feeding through into the voting intentions of the people of Wales.

    Looking back at how Wales used to vote I think it is evident that in the 70’s and 80’s the unions still had tremendous influence not only in the work place, but also in the social clubs, and everywhere which affected people in their daily life, and this applied to the majority of people in the towns and villages surrounding the big cities. This influence or power of the unions used to create the backbone of support for Labour in Wales. This has all but gone.

    I think it is this change that has evolved the voter intentions of whole communities to not be tied to one political party. Looking at it like this and with hindsight this was an inevitable change that nearly everyone was oblivious to it actually occurring at the time.

  14. Regarding shyness; ICM reallocate the “don’t knows” to who they voted for in the last election.

    There are more shy Lab voters in this poll than shy Tories. (See page 10 of the tabs – before they do the adjustment, Cons were on 51% and Lab on 26%; after the reallocation of don’t knows, Cons drop to 49% and Lab rise to 27%)

  15. Why has PC done so badly in recent years? You would think that they could ride on the same thing that the SNP are riding so high on.

  16. RAF: “I have to say, I think it most unlikely any charges will be brought against MPs. If there are to be charged laid it is far more likely they will be against election agents.”

    Election agents haven’t committed any offences. It’s candidates whose spending is restricted. You can’t delegate legal responsibility to your agent.

  17. “The question is who’ll be most embarrassed on June 9th – Corbyn or the pollsters?”

    Neither. Corbyn is easy. It’ll probably be a disaster, but Corbyn will try to shrug it off. Everyone else in the party will be embarrassed, but not Corbyn.

    Pollsters. I don’t think they’ll get much flak. They’re predicting an enormous Tory majority. That’s what’s we’ll get. I doubt anyone will be making much fuss about the exact size of the majority compared to predictions, the headline will be the same.

    So the pollsters can get it quite wrong, and the only people worrying will be the pollsters. Quite unlike the last two elections, where a few percentage points wrong and you end up predicting completely the wrong outcome.

  18. Please excuse my ignorance and my poor O-Level maths grade understanding of statistics. I note that the respondents in the ICM poll split 49-41% in favour of leaving the EU when thinking back to how they voted at the referendum. This is a far wider gap than the actual vote. Does this mean this poll was asking a greater number of people likely to vote Conservative and would that skew the findings? There was much gnashing of teeth and a lot of wailing following the last election, have all the polling companies completed the reviews of their methodologies or has this election come to soon?

  19. @rogerh

    Not so. Both candidate and agent must certify the final return is accuratw.

    Also, expenses can be authorised by either the candidate or agent (or those authorised by the candidate or agent).

    Where it gets difficult is if spending which should have been allocated to the campaign was not actually authorised by either of them. In that case, trying to identify culpability would be very difficult.

    In any case, if charges are handed down I don’t see it as having any cut through. It can easily be spun as a technical offence over allocation of expenses rather than some serioys fraud.

  20. I am new to this site and finding it very informative. Many thanks to AW for taking the time and trouble to make all this happen.

  21. Andy T
    “…as there is still some UKIP votes to move across…”

    There may be some, but there is a section of UKIP support that came from Labour and would not contemplate voting Tory. There are others who want to ‘keep the Tories feet to the fire’ – i.e. keep the pressure up because May is not completely trusted to deliver.

    Also, old parties take a long time to die. I had a look at the last GE results and the Liberals (as opposed to LibDem), BNP, Communist and National Front all still had candidates although admittedly Monster Raving Looneys had nearly as many candidates as that lot combined!

  22. @TRIGGUY: “They’re predicting an enormous Tory majority. That’s what’s we’ll get.”

    Is it, though?

  23. Prawny 369

    Some of the difference is likely to be because voters who aren’t particularly committed to either side are more likely to recall voting for the winners whether they did or not.

  24. @rogerh

    “Is it, though?”

    Well true enough, the pollsters will have a lot to think about then.

    But they’d have to be far more inaccurate than they’ve even been in the past to make much of a dent on the current predicted landslide, and the local elections are in line with the polls, in as much as you can take them as a guide. So I really don’t see a possibility of a different result.

  25. This poll shows there is a 6% gap between labour and torys. Opinion polls have a 3% margin of error for each party, meaning both parties could actually be on 38%, and so very close. Admittedly Lab could be on 32% and Con on 44%, but I doubt this after the results of the local Welsh elections, show Labour are still winning in wales

  26. I also think shy Tories could make the gap even bigger

  27. I would like to hear the? views of non-aligned swing voters as to the their opinion of the relative electoral toxicity of Corbyn v Miliband. With due respect to Ed, I don’t think, come the X in the box moment for those voters, he commanded any respect at all. I believe, for all the caveats, Corbyn DOE’S the and come the day of the race, in the most black and white election for 30 years
    this could make a substantial difference

  28. @ ProfHoward

    I believe Plaid Cymru are held back by the language. 80% of Welsh voters don’t speak Welsh and there have always been fears that if Plaid ever have power they will become second class citizens whilst the 20% of Welsh speakers will dominate everything. The fears are not unfounded in my experience.

  29. Apologies for the question mark and apostrophe – ,premature send!

  30. I agree with those who say that the “Shy Tory” has gone, but I believe it is only temporary. The phenomenon really arose with Mrs Thatcher as everybody was either strongly pro or strongly anti her, and many of the former were reluctant to admit it. The “Shy Tory” continued on with Major and subsequent Conservative leaders as there was still an association with Thatcher, and it became fashionable to claim to be a Blairite. It is now Corbyn who is unfashionable and we may have some “Shy Labour”. The Conservative lead may therefore be slightly exaggerated but certainly not enough to have much effect on the general election result. The “Shy Tory” will however reappear as the Conservative demographic is older and quieter.

  31. Is there no YG poll today?

  32. Regarding the shy torys I think there will be very few this time as it seem to be more “socially acceptable” to say I’m voting for May and not Corbyn. I actually I think more people will be shy to admit they are voting for corbyn, and so the polls maybe down playing the labour vote.
    Basically I saying the shy torys have no need to be shy, not this time

  33. @ToH and others

    This morning i posted on educational qualifications and Brexit and then left for London in blind ignorance of the storm that I had apparently raised. It seems that my post was taken as implying that people voted for Brexit because they were thick or ignorant or both. As it happens, my intention was to argue that the association between educational qualifications and voting Brexit was not to be explained in this way. I am not quite sure how tt came about that I was misunderstood in this, but anyway apologies to those offended and particularly to ToH for whose very dfferent views I have always had great respect.

  34. @Pete B

    Have pointed out how your latest post on Austerity actually supports my point in previous thread….

  35. @Charles

    “I am not quite sure how tt came about that I was misunderstood in this, but anyway apologies to those offended…”

    ——–

    One can make the most innocuous post and see it misappropriated, best to plan for the worst. (Also, personally I wasn’t offended but don’t see why my good nature means I should be left out of any apology that’s going…)

  36. “Apologies for the question mark and apostrophe – ,premature send!”

    ———-

    Personally, it didn’t bother me, but thanks for the apology anyway!!

  37. The Liberal Democrats are not exactly doing that well according to this poll.

  38. I apologise for still being alive. G’night all.

  39. I wonder how many new voters will be out in 2015?

    I know in my seat, it is not worth voting as the council is 98% Tory, and the Tories have run the place since the beginning of time.

    As a result we have an extraordinary MP who rarely visits the constituency, lives somewhere else, and spends more time campaigning for issues where he lives.

    I’m sure there are many like me in Labour safe seats who finally see a chance to have a vote that counts and remove mp’s who landed their seats because they knew someone in the party, and forgot to do their job locally, and didn’t think they had to because they were in a ‘safe seat’

    I’m starting to agree, its all going blue….very blue…

  40. oops 2017…

  41. It will be interesting to compare the differential swing based on the response rate of MP’s

    https://www.writetothem.com/stats/2015/mps

    Lots of MP’s who rarely respond to their constituents on that list.

  42. @Trigguy
    ‘and the local elections are in line with the polls, in as much as you can take them as a guide.’

    Not entirely so. The local elections are estimated to have indicated a Tory lead of 11% – quite a bit lower than the 15% – 22% being suggested by the polls.The Tory majority implied by the local elections is in the range of 48 to 60 seats – which would fall someway short of a landslide!

  43. I could see the Tories going up 2% by the time the GE is called and Labour down by 1%.

  44. I think that the locals started showing a pattern that could well be replicated in the general election – and one that reflects the &y of American politics.

    In many of the medium and large cities that are metropolitan and multicultural, Labour did at least ok – and actually did well in some places. Indeed they took parts of Cardiff that were lost under Brown and Milliband – and here in Swansea actually increased their majority.

    In the backwaters and small towns, the opposite happened – and the Labour vote was way down – and even saw Tories gaining in places that would be considered Labour heartlands.

    While I think that the Tory lead in the polls is greatly overestimated, I think the distribution of the vote, partly in line with what I outlined above, will lead to a Tory majority of around 120….although I expect the percentages to be not dis-similar to 2015….on this, I predict…

    Labour 32%
    Tory 38%
    LibDem 9%
    UKIP 6%
    Green 5%
    SNP/Plaid Cymru 4%
    NHAP/Indies/Others 6%

  45. I wonder how the LD’s will do vs the Conservative surge.

    Both Carshalton & Wallington and Southport have modest majorities which are vulnerable if the Conservative surge reaches them. Then there’s Richmond Park, which has a somewhat larger majority: would Heathrow be a big issue when set against Brexit? I don’t think so. Would there be a “Zac Goldsmith” effect? No idea.

    The LD’s might pick off one or two Labour seats to compensate, though. That’s if the Conservatives don’t beat them to it.

  46. Survation poll
    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 7%
    UKip 6%
    Grn 3%

  47. Survation poll with changes from 21/22 April 2017 (last poll done by this company):
    Con 47% (+7%)
    Lab 30% (+1%)
    LD (-4%)
    UKIP (-5%)
    Grn 3% (-1%)

  48. Survation poll with changes from 21/22 April 2017 (last poll done by this company):
    Con 47% (+7%)
    Lab 30% (+1%)
    LD 7% (-4%)
    UKIP 6% (-5%)
    Grn 3% (-1%)

  49. Charles

    Many thanks for the explanation Charles and no offence caused just a little surprise at the time. From what you say above we probably agree on the subject anyway.

    All the best

    TOH.

  50. The latest Survation poll is much more in line with other polls and as a quick guide, using Electoral Calculus it woud produce a majority of 124 seats for the Cons. The LD figure is very low and they would lose 4 seats if true.

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