ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 6%, GRN 3%. This is the first poll we’ve seen since the local government elections, and has the Tories back up to a lead of 22 points (indeed, according to Martin Boon it’s the Conservatives’ highest share from ICM since 1983). It wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories did get a boost from their local government success, but we shall see if it is echoed in other polls. Full tables are here.

Also out today was a new YouGov poll of Welsh voting intentions, conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures there are CON 41%(+1), LAB 35%(+5), LDEM 7%(-1), Plaid 11%(-2), UKIP 4%(-2). The previous YouGov Welsh poll was the one with that startling ten point Tory lead, conducted when the general election had only just been called and GB polls were showing twenty-plus point leads. In that context, the narrowing of the Tory lead may be partly a reversion to the mean after the unusual result in the last poll, may be partially a reflection of the slight narrowing we’ve seen in GB polls.

Roger Scully’s write up of the poll is here.


238 Responses to “ICM voting intentions and YouGov Welsh poll”

1 3 4 5
  1. @BARDIN1

    There are certainly one or two polls that might be seen as encouraging for Labour. But there are others that are not. The one at the head of this thread, for example.

  2. I see that today a Sturgeon-Harvie electoral pakt has been unveiled in which Greens will stand aside to aid the SNP in a large number of constituencies allowing the independence vote to fall in behind the SNP.

    Do people on here think that will help the SNP in its battle with the Conservative Party?

  3. Not a good day for Corbyn. Says he will stay on as leader even if they lose and then denies having said he would.Then he fails to say whether we will definitely come out of the EU- he was asked 7/8 times. Interesting to see how this will affect the polls – any UKIP voters still considering move to Labour?

  4. TOH – Thank you. :)

  5. @Andy T

    I really think he is planning on staying on after the election.

    Given how the PLP is roundly ignored by him, why not? And less MPs means less dissenting voices.

  6. Interesting to see if there is any effect on the polls in relation to Theresa May’s support for Fox Hunting and intends to allow a free vote on the matter.
    Surpised she has announced this but I suppose her lead is so great it is unlikely to have any serious long term impact.

  7. JIB

    I agree that he seems determined not to be moved.

    However, both of today’s utterances probably deter more potential voters and so his result.

    We could have a situation where all parties ( including an element of Labour MPs) are hoping for a truly disasterous result for Labour.

    A really bad result for Labour and will the Unions not then have a word in Corbyns ear?

  8. RAF

    I’m afraid your memory has failed you. I got the last GE and the Scottish Independance referendum correct but I got the EU referendum wrong, I thought Remain would win by 10 points.

  9. @ PROFHOWARD – yes, a little.

    Stirling the most obvious seat. Greens won 3% in 2015, the seat voted 60% NO in IndyRef1 and on current polling it will be a close run race. I see the Green tactical vote/withdrawal keeping that SNP but without their support it’s just on the side of tipping CON.

    Judging by the number of zeros they scored in 2015 I think the Greens did this selective seat withdrawal back then – I’m sure a Scottish voter will mention that. There are other seats where a Green-SNP alliance will raise the swing threshold but unless we see some tactical voting from the Union parties and/or a drop in SNP to 40% or below then it probably won’t make a difference.

    Interestingly (or not) if SCON and SLIB had formed an alliance they could probably have taken 7 extra seats from SNP (ie instead of SNP winning 47 they’d win 40)- fairly obvious to see how that would be 4 CON, 3 LIB given the “pocket” support of both parties. Maybe, next time?

  10. NEILJ

    “Interesting to see if there is any effect on the polls in relation to Theresa May’s support for Fox Hunting and intends to allow a free vote on the matter.”

    I expected it, and expect it in the manifesto, many Tories support traditional foxhunting and field sports generally. I doubt it will make any difference at all.

  11. I think it was Millie who posted a couple of days ago something along the lines of, “I feel something big and exciting is going to happen in this election.”

    I remember thinking at the time that the comment was a bit Delphic: I wasn’t sure if she was serious. But I feel the same way.

    It all looks very cut-and-dried at the moment; very static. But I just have a feeling it won’t carry on like that. Something has to break. And I wonder if that might be the passing of peak May.

    Could it be that the more exposure she gets, the less of a vote-winner she will become? I think that could happen in two ways. First, her canny avoidance of commitments will become difficult to sustain, and if she does start to reveal commitments, her lack of campaigning experience may lead to unforced errors. Her apparent commitment to a free vote on fox hunting, and avowal of her support for it, is a case in point, where there are surely far more votes to be lost than to be gained. And her espousal of price controls to address the failure of market forces in the electricity market smacks of knee-jerk policymaking not backed by a coherent political philosophy.

    I’m not forecasting a collapse in Tory VI, or that the wheels will the Tory wagon will come off, but I just feel that making the Tory campaign so presidential, and relying on the personal appeal of May, is a bit dangerous when her real personality and political nous are somewhat unproven.

  12. @SOMERJOHN

    Everything you say may be true, however, all TM has to do is not have any major gaffs. What choice do most centrist voters have? A Marxist supporting Corbyn and a hopelessly split Labour party or the non-entity Farron and a decimated Lib Dem party.

    There is no realistic alternative as the polls are consistently showing when are asked who they trust on the major issues.

  13. @ PROFHOWARD – Also in Edinburgh, especially Edinburgh South which looks like it will be a 3-way race LAB, CON, SNP. Although Edinburgh was 61% NO, Greens stood in all three Edinburgh seats in 2015 scoring 4-5%. 2 are SNP defend, Edinburgh South is a target.
    Edinburgh East and North have SLAB as the best shot of knocking out SNP. If the SLAB support is strong AND Greens don’t pull out AND SCON and SLIB vote tactically, SLAB might take 2 back from SNP and keep the one they have??

    That is a lot of ANDs so unlikely but not impossible.
    Hopefully someone with local knowledge can add some input as my input is purely numerically based.

  14. SEA CHANGE

    I agree with you that May primarily just needs to avoid the gaffs. Labour have had a couple of better polls but the Tories, having barely done anything, are still polling in the mid to upper forties – and that is decisive if not landslide territory.

    I feel the Tory VI is solid – minds are already made up and I imagine the Tories have already gauged that from their own polling.

  15. @Sea Change.

    I don’t disagree with the broad thrust of your comment, but
    a “Marxist supporting Corbyn ” is not accurate. Corbyn was asked whether he was influenced by Max. He said he was influenced by a lot of people including Adam Smith, Ricardo, Marx and others.

    The Tories and LDs then claimed JC had admitting to being a Marxist, when this is not what he had said.

    Anyway all that matters is that the voters probably now think he is a Marxist.

  16. Oops – sorry AW

  17. @RAF

    I think you’re being a little generous towards Corbyn. He was on record yesterday saying he thought Marx was a “great economist”, That’s after his shadow chancellor endorsed Das Kapital “which we have much to learn from” on Sunday.

    During his first leadership election Corbyn went on Marr and said,

    “Marx obviously analysed what was happening in a quite brilliant way and the philosophy around Marx is fascinating. He was essentially a fascinating figure … from whom we can learn a great deal.”

    When asked if he was a Marxist he said, “That’s an interesting question. I haven’t thought about that for a long time. I haven’t really read as much of Marx as I should have done.”

    Corbyn has so far been endorsed by the Young Communist League, the Communist Party of Britain, the Alliance for Workers’ Liberty, the New Communist Party of Britain, the Workers Revolutionary Party and the Socialist Workers Party.

    No smoke without fire as they say.

  18. Trevor Warne

    Caveats noted but I think if that happened Labour could be said to have had a very good night north of the border.

  19. @somerjohn

    “I’m not forecasting a collapse in Tory VI, or that the wheels will the Tory wagon will come off, but I just feel that making the Tory campaign so presidential, and relying on the personal appeal of May, is a bit dangerous when her real personality and political nous are somewhat unproven.”

    I did wonder a bit when I saw a headline something like “A Second Maggie” the other day. While invoking Thatcher will certainly play to the traditional Tories, it might put off some of those that have switched, or are thinking of switching, from the ranks from old Labour. But like you, I don’t think this is going to make a big difference.

  20. @Somerjohn – it is interesting to see how May has hoovered up the more right leaning hard brexiters with her rhetoric, but in other ways is not giving them the red meat they crave.

    The price cap is one example, but failing to maintain the triple lock and make commitments of tax are other major areas where the true blues might feel some discomfort, even if they are sensible statements.

    She is openly going for a big majority, and so she wants to be all things to all people, and there is a big risk in that.

    Overall though, I think that however we try to excite this, I can’t really see it happening. Corbyn is just too unpopular with too many people to really create a problem if May flies too close to the sun, and the only other risk is for UKIP to re-emerge as a threat, but Brexit and the fact that Nuttall is the one leader worse than Corbyn effectively rules that out.

    However, I am willing to entertain the thought that it might be a bit closer than people think, although that remains only a thought – it could equally be much worse.

  21. @ DAVIDWEST – I agree. If you look into the tabs you can see how “loyal” the CON support is. 80%+
    Longer term issues for LAB and LIB who are down at 60% or lower.

    I don’t read much into the “intention to vote” but as others have mentioned voters (including the DKs of course) tend to “like” May and her policies (helped by the press I suspect) and some polls include a “tendency to move towards” section that also shows they are “warming to her”

    For me the manifestos might be the final nail in the LAB coffin. If CON grab the vacant Centre ground as the initial “promises” and “trial balloons” suggest then a lot of those DKs might vote CON and the “LAB bias” corrections in the polls might not be enough – lot of very demotivated LAB voters who might just stay at home. Will CON voters get complacent?? Impossible to say but I get the sense they will want to put an X in the box and buy-in to the “winning team”.

    This GE is unusual in so many ways so “unprecedented” outcomes don’t seem unreasonable to me.
    Everything is unprecedented until the first time it happens (from the film Sully!)

  22. May’s two-pronged attack:

    – park your tanks on UKIP’s territory
    – park your manifesto on Centre-Left territory

    = own every vote from Centre-Left to Far-Right (minus a few hardcore Remain)

    Finally motivate your voters to turn out and demotivate the opposition so they stay at home.

    The word for 9June will be “unprecedented”

  23. What do Scottish people think of May?

  24. @ Profhoward and Trevor Warne

    Ian Murray (Edinburgh South) had a very high profile in saving the local football team from going uder – pretty sure that helped him in 2015 though it may not be so potent now

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/foundation-hearts-chairman-ian-murray-4174206

    Having spent the last five days in Edinburgh and talked to a lot of (not very political) friends I think there is more likelihood of SNP to Con move (due to immigration based Brexit votes) than any other shifts.Scottish Labour seems to have no raison d’etre except as a Unionist option for the left, but that has no potency in a Brexit supporting Conservative dominated Britain

  25. Under, not ‘Uder’ though ‘Going udder’ might be a good option for Scottish Labour if they need to regain their strength….

  26. @ProfHoward

    My friends (not a representative sample – mostly upper working/ lower middle class males) don’t think much about her. She hasn’t had enough time to offend us yet :-)

    Those who are pro-independence just regard any Tory as ‘the enemy’. There is some regard for the fiestyness of Davidson, though one friend said that was wearing thin now.

  27. Thanks Bardini.

    ==

    On a separate note does anyone recon Willie Rennie has a good chance of taking back Charlie Kennedy’s seat?

  28. The fox hunting issue is a distraction. She’s not bringing it back – she’s allowing a free vote on any Amendments that would have to be brought forward by a Private Members Bill.

    It will be ‘pulled’ at Parliamentary level just as it was under Cameron. There is no desire among the more modern Tory MPs (which is most of them) to bring it back. It’s merely the grumblings of the ‘Knights-in-the-shires’.

    Even if, by some incredible fluke an Amendment were passed allowing the return of it, it would still require licensing and regulating by Local Authorities (most of whom would ban it by By-Law), then the hunts themselves – like all events, of such a nature, would require policing etc which the hunts would have to pay for.

    It really is nothing more than a bone being tossed to keep the old growlers quiet.

  29. Edinburgh South is said to be one of the more refined constituencies in Scotland. If SNP did not take it last time surely there is no chance of them taking it this time. If anything whoever is the non-SNP incumbent in these seats gets a boost as the anti-SNP vote will coalesce around him.

  30. @ProfHoward

    According to the polls no good. Around -23% if I remember correctly. May like Boris is the type of politician Scots don’t really identify with.

  31. tWhat do Scottish people think of May?”

    ———–

    Oh God…

  32. @Prof Howard
    @Trevor Warne

    I think you are expecting too much anti-SNP tactical voting I doubt that will happen.

    1. The No2IndyRef2 angry unionist vote peaked at 25% last week
    2. The GE result has no effect on whether Scotland is independent or whether there is another referendum
    3. Just as likely to be anti-Tory tactical voting in Mundell’s constituency for example.
    4. Tories are going to vote Tory so could save the SNP/LibDem seats and a few others

  33. @ 8.10 pm

    A Scottish poll in March found 48% considered Theresa May was doing well, 47% disapproved.

    I would think her rating has fallen since then, with her stone-walling on a second referendum and hard line on immigration.

    The Conservatives only got 25% of the 1st preference votes last Thursday, so TM`s 48% honeymoon rating is very vulnerable.

    I have earlier argued that the Tories did well last week, but some folk in England have made a mountain out of a molehill of Scottish success.

    It is hilarious to see some getting excited about Cons winning a Paisley seat on 13% of the 1st preference votes, and at the 10th reallocation of votes. And that in a ward with many middle-class voters.

  34. @SEA CHANGE

    I quote ” or where impeachment is moved against him. Impeachment can be pronounced by the Republican High Court, a special court convened from both houses of Parliament on the proposal of either House”

    And for the amendment to end it anyway
    http://www.france24.com/en/20141022-french-president-immunity-impeachment-constitution-monarchy/

  35. @Bill Patrick

    I have a comment in moderation. In it I have drawn to your attention some academic research that has some bearing on the proposition you put forward – that people prefer inequality -IF that inequality is produced by a fair process.

    The various bits of research I identify all have to do with health inequalities. None of the research suggests that the inequalities arise by some fair process. Some clearly state that the processes causing health inequalities are inequitable. Yet those inequalities have been tolerated for nearly forty years without catching the attention of the electorate to any great degree. Have health inequalities ever mattered in a GE that you can recall?

    My conclusion? Some research is better than others.

  36. I believe Plaid Cymru are suffering a squeeze in Wales primarily because of the coverage of Ms Sturgeon in Scotland. Leanne Wood is tarred by association in many people’s eyes.

    I support PC, but just as independence is simply not on any realists’ agenda in Wales, continuous bleating from PC heavyweights about Brexit has turned many voters off.

  37. @Andy Williams

    You are confusing immunity from prosecution with impeachment to remove from office.

    “Articles 67 and 68 organise the regime of criminal responsibility of the President. They were reformed by a 2007 constitutional act, in order to clarify a situation that previously resulted in legal controversies.

    The President of the Republic enjoys immunity during his term: he cannot be requested to testify before any jurisdiction, he cannot be prosecuted, etc. However, the statute of limitation is suspended during his term, and enquiries and prosecutions can be restarted, at the latest one month after he leaves office.

    The President is not deemed personally responsible for his actions in his official capacity, except where his actions are indicted before the International Criminal Court (France is a member of the ICC and the President is a French citizen as another following the Court’s rules) or where impeachment is moved against him. Impeachment can be pronounced by the Republican High Court, a special court convened from both houses of Parliament on the proposal of either House, should the president have failed to discharge his duties in a way that evidently precludes the continuation of his term.”

  38. Following 8 June there’s a report that 100 labour MPs may resign the whip. Could the SNP then become the official opposition?

1 3 4 5