Sunday polls

There are four voting intention polls this Sunday. Opinium, ORB in the Sunday Telegraph, YouGov in the Sunday Times, ICM in the Sun on Sunday. Topline voting intentions are:

YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1) (tabs)
ORB: CON 46%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc) (tabs)
Opinium: CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc) (tabs)
ICM: CON 46%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 8%(nc)

Changes are from last week for ORB and Opinium, from the midweek Times & Guardian polls for YouGov and ICM. All continue to show a robust lead for the Conservative party. Note that fieldwork for all of these was before the local election results (YouGov is conducted Thursday evening and Friday morning, but the vast bulk would have been before many results were known) so don’t expect to see any local election impact yet: it’s the sort of thing that could have an impact, in terms of parties looking doomed or successful, like a wasted vote or a foregone conclusion.

The YouGov poll is the first one since Theresa May’s midweek speech about the EU supposedly attempting to influence the election result. 51% of people said that the claim that EU officials and politicians were deliberately trying to influence the general elections were “probably true”, 24% that they were probably false. There was clear divide down party lines and by attitudes to the EU – 72% of people who voted to Leave thought it was probably true, only 35% of those who voted to Remain.

On a related topic YouGov also asked about the “exit bill” for leaving the EU. In principle, 32% of people thought it was reasonable for other EU countries to ask Britain to pay for outstanding financial liabilities like pension costs and spending agreed before we leave, 50% of people think it unreasonable. Presented with some specific costs, people were evenly split over whether a settlement of £10bn was reasonable, but 53% thought £20bn was unreasonable, 64% thought £50bn was unreasonable, 72% thought that £100bn was unreasonable. In practice I suspect it isn’t the specific figure that’s at issue (I bet if we’d offered £5bn than some people would have said that was reasonable and then rejected £10bn) – these are all figures that sound unfathomably huge – it’s the idea of having to pay to leave the EU. The key thing for the government won’t be the size of the payment, but how they manage to present it. If it’s a leaving fee, people will hate it. If they can twist it into being seen as a fee for some continuing benefit it may be more saleable – 42% of people said that Britain should be prepared to pay a financial settlement it is the only way of getting a trade deal.

UPDATE: Added the ICM poll!


409 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. first?

    ” 51% of people said that the claim that EU officials and politicians were deliberately trying to influence the general elections were “probably true”, 24% that they were probably false. There was clear divide down party lines and by attitudes to the EU – 72% of people who voted to Leave thought it was probably true, only 35% of those who voted to Remain”
    _______

    It’s certainly a good election narrative to go on for the Tories that the EU are interfering with our election. I imagine if the polls start to narrow, TM will be blaming Russian hackers.

  2. @AC

    “72% of people who voted to Leave thought it was probably true, only 35% of those who voted to Remain”

    That’s quite a split. Whatever the outcome of the GE, the polarisation of general political views between Leave and Remain voters is going to be a matter of concern for future UK governments.

  3. @Anthony

    “42% of people said that Britain should be prepared to pay a financial settlement it is the only way of getting a trade deal.”

    Well, it won’t be the only way. Any contribution the UK is prepared to consider making will open the doors to some kind of deal. However, as with everything else – the more the UK is prepared to pay, the better the deal the EU will feel they can offer.

  4. I find it interesting that all 3 show a Labour recovery from the mid-to-low 20s. In light of the widespread belief that Corbyn is a drag on them, it’s quite an achievement to be at or around the same level that Brown and Miliband got. Perhaps there’s something in McDonnell’s claim on Marr this morning that more publicity because of the election campaign will help Labour.

  5. The EU federalists appear to still not get it, but at the end of the day money talks, and the vast majority know an equitable deal will be done.

    Talk of deliberately making the deal a punitive deal for Britain is rhetorical bluster from rattled Federalists who know they’ve lost our sceptrd isle – just like the Romans and the RC Church!!

  6. @Pete B

    “Perhaps there’s something in McDonnell’s claim on Marr this morning that more publicity because of the election campaign will help Labour.”

    The YG tables suggest this may not be the case. Those polled by a margin of about 2 to 1 said that they have a less favourable opinion of Labour than they had before the GE. In fact all of the major parties are viewed less favourably than they were, albeit the Tories with a much lower net negative score.

    However, there is a world of difference between what people say they think and what they say they will do. I’m inclined on the basis of the uptick in Lab VI since the start of the campaign to agree with McDonnell.

  7. JonesinBangor

    I wonder if we’ll be in for decades of the EU sending federalists over to secretly preach the doctrine and then having to hide out in false rooms in north London mansions when the Leave police come calling?

  8. I cannot see a useful political purpose that is in the interests of the UK in the tirade by Mrs May on 3rd May. Usually, better relations between parties mean they achieve better negotiating outcomes.

    It is not true to say that the EU position has hardened as claimed by Mrs May. The position is unchanged. What has changed is speculation about the amount the UK may have to pay to the EU as a result of Brexit. Is it incompetence by Mrs May to get this wrong? I doubt that.

    It seems to me that the UK may have decided to have a hard, fast Brexit. It needs to be soon to give as much time as possible to set up trade deals before the 2022 GE. The sum due is perhaps the instrument to sever the relations.

  9. Pete,

    There are many ABTs throughout the UK and in most places Labour is the best option, the question is how many will abstain or hold their noses and vote for Labour despite JC.

    There are more ABLs at present of course hence the still huge Tory leads.

    Scotland as ever is unfathomable to most of us on here – even our fellow posters from there disagree sometimes.

  10. RAF
    You’ve managed to confuse me I’m afraid. Are you agreeing with me or not? I’m content with either, just not clear what you mean.

  11. These polls were before the local elections, but after “Abbottgate” about which there was so much fuss everywhere. No obvious effect on the numbers, so perhaps the 30% Labour supporters have already factored in the presence of Abbott near the top. It may be difficult to convince other voters however, if performances like that continue.

  12. @Pete B

    “You’ve managed to confuse me I’m afraid. Are you agreeing with me or not? I’m content with either, just not clear what you mean.”

    I’m agreeing with you. Lab VI is definitely up..

    But those polled seem to be saying they have a less favourable view of Labour than they did before the campaign started.

  13. If true that Corbyn staying beyond the GE will come down to Labour vote share then moderate Labour supporters have a tough choice. Voting Labour keeps Corbyn in place and the agony protracted, lending their vote or staying at home may at least help get him out. So outside of the Marginals there will now be little motivation (other than for actual Corbyn supporters) to vote Labour, indeed the greater motivation may now be to vote against. Turkeys reconciled to their fate might at least be willing vote for Christmas if it meant the next one would be cancelled.

  14. RAF

    “That’s quite a split. Whatever the outcome of the GE, the polarisation of general political views between Leave and Remain voters is going to be a matter of concern for future UK governments”
    ________

    I agree and if you look at UK politics now it’s largely split down constitutional lines. Unionist-Nationalist, Remain Leave. Brexit will deliver the Tories a thumping election victory exacerbated by an outdated voting system but in reality, the country will be polarised.

    The Tories really want to to get over the 50% mark in June as this will be hugely symbolic and they can say the country is with them.

  15. Allan C
    No party has even got 45% of the vote since 1970 – nearly 50 years ago! Even that was only 33% of the electorate.

  16. ALLAN CHRISTIE.
    Good Morning to you from Brexit-voting middle class -largely-Bournemouth.
    I agree with you; the 1886, 1895, 1900 and 1918 Elections were unionist triumphs based on moderate nationalism; their opponents were surprised how much ‘working class’ voters went Tory. In Martin Pugh’s magisterial history of Labour Party politics shows how Labour did well with its brand of ‘Tory Socialism’; combining intense patriotism, love of the Crown and social reform.

    PETE B.
    I think May will win more than 45%; taking yet more votes from the UKIP figures shown in the polls, and more Labour votes from some old Lab areas.

    On a question of the polls: does anyone know how this time the polling companies will take into account ‘shy Tories’ ? These polls, IMO, make the same error as in most GE’s in my life time (1955-2017 so far)

  17. @ PETE B – SNP got 50% of the 2015 vote in Scotland with 71.1% of turnout (which gave them 56/59 of the seats)

    How CON can get 50%+

    2/3 of the residual UKIP vote (6×0.75) = 4%
    Motivate CON voters (LAB and LDEM de-motivating themselves perhaps?) +?%
    Grab more DKs with a centre-ground manifesto +?%

    All three polls today include the “likelihood to vote” adjustments based on historic demographics ( i.e. young are lazy, old have nothing better to do) which is why “raw” data always has CON lower/LAB higher when polled compared with actuals in previous elections so I trust the 46%ish for where we probably are today.

    If you make the above adjustments you can see that 50% is certainly within grasp! The betting market currently sees it as about a 3-1 bet (down from 5-1 just after the election was called).

    A few of us discussed y’day the likelihood of a CON +3, UKIP -3 in the next batch of polls on the back of the local election results.

    It works better for CON campaign to keep people thinking the landslide is not certain, might even be a close result as that will avoid the complacency risk of no-shows.

  18. The “All in it (Brexit) together” mentality to see a heavy landslide.

    The Attlee moment will come for Labour.

    And it is easy enough to achieve too.

    i. Appoint a leader who is media friendly.
    ii. Appoint a leader who will appeal to the swing voters a la Blair.
    iii. Once in power, ignore swing voters and the media and pursue a proper left wing agenda a la Attlee.

    Say one thing. Get elected. But once in power really go for your OWN agenda.

    That, after all, is what the Conservatives do most of the time…. and very succesful they have been at it to their credit.

    Labour need to stop dreaming and be equally pragmatic.

  19. P.S. The second element to SNP getting 95% of the Scottish seats with “just” 50% of the vote was a split opposition!
    This leads on to my concern that LDEM are “doing more harm than good”.

    Quote from LDEM HQ:
    “We would strongly welcome people voting tactically to prevent a hard Brexit, because that means voting Liberal Democrat”

    WOW!!! So vote tactically means vote LDEM which means the swing required for CON to gain a LAB seat will be lower….

    It’s more a seat by seat issue but if you play around on Electoral Calculus you can see the affect of going from 50/29/8 (CON/LAB/LIB) to 49/24/14 results in
    CON +18
    LAB -22
    LIB +4

    For every seat they take from LAB they give 4x as many to CON!!!

    P.P.S. Well managed tactical voting would have/still might work, what I’m saying is that there has to be well managed quid pro quo otherwise it ends up actually helping CON get more seats – even when you also drop CON %!!!

  20. @David in France

    I couldn’t agree with you more. As ChrisLane1945 interstingly points out the early Labour Party (LRC actually) was brilliant at grass roots level at portraying Labour as “Tory Socialism” – an appeal stance they have increasingly abandoned as the party has become more bourgeois. In 1945 voting Labour was seen as equally patriotic as voting for Winston. A patriotic Socialist appeal followed by a government that persued hard-left structural Socialist change could easily be marketed as patriotic.

  21. Trevor
    I stand corrected. I was of course talking about UK-wide general elections. I should have made that clearer.

  22. Mid-market seat update from IG Index:

    CON 404
    LAB 150.5
    LIB 20.25
    SNP 44.5

    Again, I’m not saying the bookies are right (personally I think CON goes higher!) – just pointing out where people are putting their money is very different to what people are talking about in terms of seats/size of majority in the press, etc.

    Traders models are assuming further UKIP drop goes to CON and that the tactical progressive alliances aren’t going to have much affect.

    I think a majority of 100+, let alone 150+ is a concern for democracy as the Lords won’t risk abolishment to put up much fight. Some will say it allows CON to ignore their far-right wing but that can be achieved with a 50-100 majority.
    If Angus Robertson (SNP) loses his seat, LAB go down to 150 and LDEM barely improve on 9 – all of which seem likely – I’m concerned. Good article in Times y’day I think along similar lines.

  23. @Pete B – “I find it interesting that all 3 show a Labour recovery from the mid-to-low 20s. In light of the widespread belief that Corbyn is a drag on them, it’s quite an achievement to be at or around the same level that Brown and Miliband got. Perhaps there’s something in McDonnell’s claim on Marr this morning that more publicity because of the election campaign will help Labour.”

    This is certainly Labour’s hope, but as we have heard from AW before, people might be well disposed to their policies, but have little faith in Corbyn. This is where Labour’s issues really seem to be.

    About the only real hope for Labour is for the campaign to offer the chance to discredit some of the Conservative reputation for competence.

    Even though she has been in power for less than a year, May’s delivery of domestic policy has been a litany of backtracking and broken promises. Even this morning’s big announcement on mental health, which mirrors a big announcement she made early in her tenure, needs to be set against the fact that the £700m of extra funding set aside for mental health has been raided to cover NHS trusts deficits and the government’s record on mental health under first Cameron and now May is utterly appalling.

    Unfortunately for Labour, because May has credibility and Corbyn doesn’t, May gets away with spouting utter nonsense, while Corbyn is viewed with suspicion, even while he says things that people would support if it was someone else who said them.

    I think this is what Corbyn’s supporters didn’t quite get when they re-elected him. It’s actually much less about policy specifics, but more about trust in the individual, and this is something that Corbyn can’t deliver, and so I doubt Labour can realistically deploy many of the electoral weapons that the Conservative record in government has handed them to any great effect.

  24. @S Thomas, Robert Newark and RAF – re the ‘Brexit bill’ and legal enforceability;

    I understand that the talks could continue after the accounting process is agreed, and without an actual figure, but my point is that the whole deal will be legally enforceable, meaning that if the UK doesn’t pay, then the trade deal and anything else agreed is void.

    It’s also being put about by Brexiteers and others in the media who really should be more intelligent about these things that this move to agree the method but not the amount represents some kind of concession from the EU.

    The EU would prefer a deal, but knows that a bill of £10b, £20b, £50b or £79b will be unpalatable for many UK voters, and unacceptable for others. How better to scupper the chances of a deal than attempt to thrash out a fixed figure early on that will lead some to want want to walk away from talks?

    Instead, they will agree the accounting principles and then move on, with May able to bluster away to voters that the actual bill is fine and how well she is negotiating.

    Then, once the deal is all lined up, the EU will tell UK voters what the true bill will be in an all in one ‘take it or leave it’ offer.

    Again, my reading of this isn’t that the May has shaken the Brussels tree and they are making concessions, but rather the seasoned Brussels bureaucrats are running rings around May and her somewhat feeble team.

  25. ICM poll
    Con 46% Lab 28% LD 10% Ukip 8% Grn 4%

  26. @Alec

    From the EU paper on 3rd May:
    “How will you calculate the sum?
    The calculation of the UK’s financial obligations will be based on objective and verifiable data”

    I think it must have been this document that caused May’s response on the same day. She accused the EU of hardening its position. This is wrong, the EU has changed nothing. Nothing was said after the dinner with EU officials, Juncker and Barnier to suggest that Mrs May was about to be angry about a hardening of position by the EU. So, I believe that Mrs May’s outburst was entirely manufactured outrage. I think it heralds a hard Brexit -and soon.

  27. I take it that we have all this weekend’s polls now.

    Con 46-47
    Lab 28-31
    LD 9-11
    UKIP 6-8

    Little change over the past week but much of the polling was done before the local election results came in.

  28. Alec
    You said
    “I understand that the talks could continue after the accounting process is agreed, and without an actual figure, but my point is that the whole deal will be legally enforceable, meaning that if the UK doesn’t pay, then the trade deal and anything else agreed is void.”

    With that, I agree except that at that stage there will also be an agreed pencilled in figure and it will only become legally enforceable when the whole wide deal on everything is agreed.

    But then you go on to say,


    Then, once the deal is all lined up, the EU will tell UK voters what the true bill will be in an all in one ‘take it or leave it’ offer.”

    With which I totally disagree.
    This is a negotiation Do you really think Mrs May is stupid? She hasn’t just got off the last banana boat! If that did happen, I would venture that she would have the vast majority of the country behind her if she walked away.

    The eu don’t want that, they are desperate to have some money paid, otherwise they have a financing problem. The Germans don’t want to subsidise the eu at a higher level and neither do the Dutch. The French want to keep the ridiculous CAP that Blair was supposed to have got rid of when he gave up half the UK rebate but Chirac stuffed him on that one. The poles and the rest of the takers want all their pet projects to continue (even if no one can quite account for the money that goes that way). So I would be astonished if the eu aim was to ensure that the uk walked away.

    And that’s quite apart from the harm to French and German exports to the Uk.

    I don’t think the eu (apart from the alcoholic one) are that stupid either.

  29. i don’t think UKIP has half the votes of the other election, considering the local results

  30. Basically, no more movement in polls other than a UKIP to Tory switch which occurred as soon as a hypothetical future election turned into a real one with Brexit at stake. If UKIP start to stand down, or activists start becoming inactive, that must rise.

    But what is going to change to make things worse for the Tories. Other than the CPS decision, hard to see.

  31. Basically, no more movement in polls other than a UKIP to Tory switch which occurred as soon as a hypothetical future election turned into a real one with Brexit at stake. If UKIP start to stand down, or activists start becoming inactive, that must rise.

    But what is going to change to make things worse for the Tories. Other than the CPS decision, hard to see.

  32. Blair had an opposition it was the fourth estate .He was very frightened of the right of centre popular press.May will not have the same concerns .

  33. @Alec

    ‘It’s actually much less about policy specifics, but more about trust in the individual, and this is something that Corbyn can’t deliver, and so I doubt Labour can realistically deploy many of the electoral weapons that the Conservative record in government has handed them to any great effect’

    Couldn’t agree with you more. Currently Labour’s strategy is pretty much limited to a campaign for the NHS, an approach incidentally that suits Corbyn’s style and strengths as his whole political career has centred around single issue campaigns. Labour seem to have no traction either attempting to get either pro-remain moderate Tory voters to switch due to his image and policies, nor to get wc UKIP voters who previously had voted Labour to return to the fold.

  34. @Robert Newark – “This is a negotiation Do you really think Mrs May is stupid? She hasn’t just got off the last banana boat! If that did happen, I would venture that she would have the vast majority of the country behind her if she walked away.”

    No, she isn’t stupid. That’s why she knows she needs a deal, she knows she will need to pay a large fee, and she knows that this will be a hard sell.

    She is happy with the take it or leave it idea, as this is precisely what she wanted to do to the HoC.

  35. @ MACTAVISH – I take your point.

    My concern is that we are going to have a huge amount of Brexit related legislation to pass – the next 5years will not be like 1997-2002. I wouldn’t like to see it “frustrated, or parliament ground to a halt” but some scrutiny would be desirable.

    As @ DEZ pointed out the press is behind the Tories, so that “opposition” is “friendly”.
    We’ll also be out of the EU of course, although hopefully a transition period will keep some checks in place?

    Disclaimer: I voted Leave (and happy with decision) and I will vote Tory. My concern/interest is mostly about the post Brexit scenarios. Are the LDEMs taking politics seriously or actively conspiring to remove LAB from the game? Are young people going to be so traumatised by the last few years that they just wash their hands from voting in the future?

    My main hope that the Tories do not abuse the power they get on 8June with an enormous majority is that they will want to seek re-election in 2022 and people are already making the Churchill losing to Attlee comparison.

  36. @ ANDY T – I hope you are right. We don’t have long to wait for the Tory manifesto. ™ is unlikely to make too many promises but a few would definitely help her shore up the centre Tory voter and maybe steal some Blairites from Labour.
    LDEM seem AWOL at the moment as reflected in the LEs.
    Some unilateral withdrawals in seats such as Clive Lewis (Norwich South) would send the message they are serious. Brighton Pavilion was a joke (they got 2.9% in 2015!).
    Also not too late to take up the Green’s offer. Give them clear shot at Bristol West in return for Green’s standing down in Twickenham, Lewes and most importantly Bath.

    They talk about unilateral EU citizen rights…. time to see some unilateral action from them otherwise I think voters are going to start to write them off. No one wants to hear Vince Cable’s predictions of worse disaster than 2008 anymore – move on guys!

  37. The LibDems have come out and said they will keep the pensions triple lock:

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/liberal-democrats-will-keep-pensions-triple-lock-cable-54179.html

    This follows on from Labour making that pledge as well.

    The only party refusing to say whether they will keep it or not is the Conservatives – and yet all those oldies who supposedly vote only with their wallets are backing Mrs May.

    Makes you think, doesn’t it?

  38. First results from French overseas territories:

    http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/presidentielle-decouvrez-les-premiers-resultats-des-territoires-d-outre-mer-et-d-amerique-du-nord-590f1510cd702b5fbe6e48b8

    Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon : Macron 63,3%, Le Pen 36,7%

    Saint-Barthélemy : Macron 58,4%, Le Pen 41,6%

    Saint-Martin : Macron 67,6%, Le Pen 32,4%

    Guadeloupe : Macron 75,1% , Le Pen 24,9%

    Martinique : Macron 77,5, Le Pen 22,5%

    Guyane : Macron 65%, Le Pen 35%

    New-York : Macron 94,7%, Le Pen 5,3%

    Chicago / Midwest : Macron 92%, Le Pen 8%

    Boston : Macron 95,7%, Le Pen 4,3%

    Ottawa et Montréal : Macron 90%, Le Pen 10%

  39. @Andy T

    TM is not perfect, ( nor is any leader) but compared to Corbyn the British public( including a good number of experienced hard working Labour MPs) know who is better as PM. The polls do not lie even if most politiians mis speak occasionally.

    She is far from it, and in fact there are numerous points on which she could be attacked by political opponents eg u-turning on every major decisions / issue of the day, cynically putting party politics and drive for power over the interest of country, current status of schools and nhs etc – however with the exception of Sturgeon the other party leaders are 3rd rate at best, so in the lesser of evils stakes to most she will come out on top.

    The signs indicate she is on tract for approx a 17% lead over Lab on polling day – as in 83′ and ’87 the Tories are likely to increase their lead of approx 11% in the locals by approx 6-7% come 8th June. I cant see the Tories making any major slip ups before the 8th and barring a miracle it is highly unlikely Corbyn will change the electorate’s view of him by then.

    Whether this election will herald in a more permanent political realignment will largely depend on how the Lab party as a whole reacts.

  40. ‘The only party refusing to say whether they will keep it or not is the Conservatives – and yet all those oldies who supposedly vote only with their wallets are backing Mrs May.

    Makes you think, doesn’t it?’

    It is interesting. Proves that people aren’t as easily bribed as many of us think around election time. At the end of the day, people are choosing a PM, and that’s Corbyn or May. The rest is chaff.

  41. OK, I don’t want this to happen but I really can’t see how Labour’s numbers will add up. It will cause the launch of their manifesto to be delayed and when it eventually comes out there will be issues and broken promises. Their campaign will start to fall apart.

    CON 435
    LAB 137
    LIB 12
    SNP 41
    PlC 7
    Other 18

  42. I think one fairly significant factor in the decision to seek a GE was the forced U-turn on NI in the budget, bringing home the constraints from the previous election manifesto. I think we can be confident that the Tory manifesto will be so light on detail as to be not worth the paper it is printed on, and will be designed to give May a completely free hand – or as much of one as the Lords will allow.

  43. So the polls all seem to show a slight tightening towards Labour. And we have the locals showing a significantly closer race than the polls.

    This all plays to the Tories advantage for June 8, because their biggest problem will be voter apathy amongst those who might otherwise think the result is a foregone conclusion. Whats happening is probably exactly what they wanted to see.

    They know very well that people vote differently in the locals to the GE. And they also know that millions of voters just cant be bothered to vote in the locals at all. There was no possibility Corbyn could end up as PM last Thursday even if everyone voted Labour. But if the opinion polls tighten further a lot of people who might not otherwise have been bothered will make quite certain they do vote on June 8 to keep him out.

    I think this explains why the Tories have been, broadly, pretty quiet since the GE was announced. Their plan is to let Labour make the running initially, allow the polls to tighten and give them scope to trip themselves up (an opportunity which Abbott, D, seems to have excelled at).

    I think June 8 will see a much worse result for UKIP than even the locals show. The very large majority of UKIP’ers will vote for May because they know that is the only possible way they will get a brexit thats remotely close to what they want. They must all know there is no possibility of UKIP getting even 1 MP. UKIP will end up with 2% or less.

  44. BALDBLOKE

    I agree

  45. BALDBROKE

    I also agree, but I think that TM will still want manifesto to deliver votes from areas where Tories have been light previously.

  46. According to the following in the Sunday Times:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/860963062903451649/photo/1

    Corbyn’s team feel he should stay on as leader if he manages to match Ed Miliband’s 30.4% in the 2015 general election.

  47. Anyone know the turnout figure for Scotland Last Thursday compared to 2012.

    In general as Tories are more likely to vote a low turnout tends to favour them as it suggests more of the other side stayed at home.

    Peter.

  48. Does anyone in the SNP now expect Perth and North Perthshire to go Conservative or is that still considered unlikely by the SNP?

  49. @AndyT

    “TM is not perfect, ( nor is any leader) but compared to Corbyn the British public( including a good number of experienced hard working Labour MPs) know who is better as PM. The polls do not lie even if most politiians mis speak occasionally.”

    Although the polls do show that there is not a similar view of May across the four nations of UK so there is not a single “British” view of her as yet. This may make it more difficult for her to secure her “precious” Union.

  50. I think these polls could be misleading as they show a uniformed swing,but looking at the mayoal elections in the cities Labour look like they are going to better than the polls show.

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