Sunday polls

There are four voting intention polls this Sunday. Opinium, ORB in the Sunday Telegraph, YouGov in the Sunday Times, ICM in the Sun on Sunday. Topline voting intentions are:

YouGov: CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 11%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1) (tabs)
ORB: CON 46%(+4), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc) (tabs)
Opinium: CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc) (tabs)
ICM: CON 46%(-1), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 8%(nc)

Changes are from last week for ORB and Opinium, from the midweek Times & Guardian polls for YouGov and ICM. All continue to show a robust lead for the Conservative party. Note that fieldwork for all of these was before the local election results (YouGov is conducted Thursday evening and Friday morning, but the vast bulk would have been before many results were known) so don’t expect to see any local election impact yet: it’s the sort of thing that could have an impact, in terms of parties looking doomed or successful, like a wasted vote or a foregone conclusion.

The YouGov poll is the first one since Theresa May’s midweek speech about the EU supposedly attempting to influence the election result. 51% of people said that the claim that EU officials and politicians were deliberately trying to influence the general elections were “probably true”, 24% that they were probably false. There was clear divide down party lines and by attitudes to the EU – 72% of people who voted to Leave thought it was probably true, only 35% of those who voted to Remain.

On a related topic YouGov also asked about the “exit bill” for leaving the EU. In principle, 32% of people thought it was reasonable for other EU countries to ask Britain to pay for outstanding financial liabilities like pension costs and spending agreed before we leave, 50% of people think it unreasonable. Presented with some specific costs, people were evenly split over whether a settlement of £10bn was reasonable, but 53% thought £20bn was unreasonable, 64% thought £50bn was unreasonable, 72% thought that £100bn was unreasonable. In practice I suspect it isn’t the specific figure that’s at issue (I bet if we’d offered £5bn than some people would have said that was reasonable and then rejected £10bn) – these are all figures that sound unfathomably huge – it’s the idea of having to pay to leave the EU. The key thing for the government won’t be the size of the payment, but how they manage to present it. If it’s a leaving fee, people will hate it. If they can twist it into being seen as a fee for some continuing benefit it may be more saleable – 42% of people said that Britain should be prepared to pay a financial settlement it is the only way of getting a trade deal.

UPDATE: Added the ICM poll!


409 Responses to “Sunday polls”

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  1. @Candy

    It’s going to take some effort for the Tories to unseat Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North. Just look at Anthony’s seat guide:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/islingtonnorth/

    Lab 60
    Con 17
    Green 10
    LD 8
    Others 5.

    Even if the Tories decided tactically to pull out and back the LD, and all other non-Lab parties did likewise, JC would STILL win comfortably.

  2. ‘Couper @Graham

    there is still a residual goodwill from many in Edinburgh South due to Murray’s prominent role in saving the local football team from extinction

  3. @COUPER2802

    It would seem that on 1st preference votes the Scottish elections were quite tight. 32, 25, 20 with Conservatives almost as close to SNP as Labour was to them. It would be interesting to know where the independents votes will go.
    This doesn’t look like landslide territory for the SNP at all. From a complete outsider’s point of view – well, born 40 miles south of the border – this looks like quite a swing away from the SNP, with Con being the major beneficiary.

    Incidentally, autocorrect tried to change outsider to prisoner. Does anyone else think that the present EU confrontation may be partly due to electronic miscommunication.

    I would repeat however, locals and nationals are very different animals.

  4. New thread.

  5. @RAF

    If JC did lose, a number of Tory MPs would spontaneously burst into tears, and we wouldn’t want that.

  6. @RMJ1

    “If JC did lose, a number of Tory MPs would spontaneously burst into tears, and we wouldn’t want that.”

    By June 9th, I don’t they’ll care who leads the Labour Party.

  7. “Cashier: “Will it be large or small notes you require Mr Corbyn!!”

    ———-

    Well it made me smile, anyway…

  8. @Pete B

    OED
    “Austerity: Difficult economic conditions created by government measures to reduce public expenditure.”

    Carfrew
    “Austerity isn’t defined by public expenditure

    ——–

    Yes, according to that definition, Austerity is not defined by public expenditure. Austerity is the “difficult economic conditions” – e.g. Cuts to services, choking off growth – that RESULT from the government measures intended to try and reduce expenditure (which didn’t work too good).

    That definition rather supports my point.

  9. A few days ago I was reading discussions o n these pages between people who appeared to have been Labour Party supporters as to who would replace Corbyn when he loses the election.

    I responded by saying that there was every likelihood he’d be staying on, because under the electoral system in the Labour Party he doesn’t need any nominations to stand again.

    If challenged, he gets nominated automatically and he still has his army of armchair revolutionaries (who strangely, however don’t lift a finger to go out and canvass for Labour, or in many cases even vote for it), there, to re-elect him.

    I notice that Corbyn has just announced today that he’s staying on after he loses the election.

    So Mrs May’s a shoe in for 2022 as well. As I previously said, this will destroy the Labour Party for good..

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