The weekly voting intention poll by Opinium has topline figures of CON 46%(-1), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 7%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Clearly there is no significant change since last week. Fieldwork was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, so before the local elections. It’s perfectly possible that’ll we will see some impact from the local election results on general election voting intention, but don’t expect to see it in this weekend’s polls. Unless someone has commissioned a snap poll with fieldwork on Friday and Saturday, fieldwork will mostly have been done before votes were counted.

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138 Responses to “Opinium – CON 46, LAB 30, LDEM 9, UKIP 7”

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  1. Labour back to the future

    As a result of his Rural Rides maybe Corbyn sees the repeal of the Corn Laws as a vote winner in the all new sepia manifesto

  2. Hi.

    Does anyone know what other polls are out today?

    Thanks
    ad

  3. The funny thing is a while back my relative was telling me how he had paid 3 pounds or so to become a Labour party member. Apparently there was a new man on the block named Corbyn who was going to shake up Labour by delivering the more radical policies the country obviously wanted having rejected “moderate” Miliband. Firstly I think it quite feasible that JC himself delivered Brexit – a committed Labour leader could probably have bridged the small gap between leave/remain voters and maintained the status quo. Having achieved that he will now deliver Tory dominance for years to come.It’s funny what you can get for 3 pounds these days?

  4. @Colin – if true, that is truly pathetic.

    It just goes to show how divorced from the lives of real Labour supporters these people are – the most important factor becomes the protection of the leader, not the best way to help potential Labour voters survive the next five years.

  5. Interesting piece in the Telegraph this morning about the EU’s own lawyers views on the exit bill demands as currently being made. Apparently they think they will be “legally impossible to enforce”. This seems to agree with the Lords report on the issue made some time ago.

  6. @ COLIN – thanks.

    5years is a long time. Even if Labour drop to under 150 and/or sub 30% they will survive as a party. The method of choosing a leader probably needs to be changed before anyone will risk a challenge though and I think most would agree Corbyn will not go quietly!

    What is almost a “self-fullfilling prophecy” is that maybe half+/- the Labour party want Corbyn to go so if he lowers the threshold for staying (by removing the seat component) the desire to support him in the Blairite MP/supporter/voter faction drops further – positive feedback loop resulting in lower and lower target % and seats, half hearted campaigning, etc. However 9June the clock starts again with the alarm bell set +5yrs so let’s hope they don’t just hit the “snooze” button to turn of the alarm bell!

    What happens to those disheartened Labour voters in the next few weeks is interesting. Do they go to LDEM as LDEM seem to want the Blairite “crown” but currently so attached to Remain no one is seeing that side of them, or do those voters slip into the void of apathy and DC (Don’t Care). Remain hasn’t delivered for LDEMs as they expected. Although they can’t drop that part of their campaign they really need to give voters another reason to vote for them, especially as I expect the CON machine is going to gobble up the switch Centre/Centre-Left with their manifesto.

    Reading the tabs in the next few weeks will give us some clues. A lot of DKs in LAB and LDEM – do they make a decision or end up being DC on the day?

  7. Reading some of these post it appears the lazy spin is the GE will be a failure for the Tories if they do not get a ‘landslide?’ “We did not do as bad as we expected” is hardly a winning strategy is it?

  8. DUNHAM 111.
    Good Morning to you after long run through Bournemouth East where i saw no posters for the GE at all.
    On the swing; in 2015 Ed was 6.% ish behind David Cameron.
    I think that Corbyn will be close to 20%, and May close to 50%.

    Ok, so that means a difference of 30, against a difference of 6%; so 12%. Forgive me for early morning sums faults; but with variable swings as in 1997-Enfield as an example- we could be close to 15%.

    In 1983 Foot gained about 7% more in the May Locals than he did in June; and the Tories’ performance was concomitantly superior in June.

  9. @ Old Nat

    “Hence in my ward, 1st preference votes were
    SNP 1,057 + 574 = 1,631 (2 candidates)
    Ind 1,053 + 263 = 1,316 (2 candidates)
    Lab 925 + 156 = 1,081 (2 candidates)
    Con 705 (1 candidate)
    So vote share was SNP 34.5% : Ind 27.8% : SLab 22.8% : Con 14’9%”

    Congratulations on winning your ward! With two candidates, how does it work exactly? Do you have multiple candidates running under the same party? This year I had the distinct pleasure of explaining the top two system to an Englishman who was astonished over the explanation of having a Parliamentary race between two Labour candidates.

    Congrats on winning the Glasgow Council too. Would have been fun to see the Scots Nats celebration. Perhaps you all could have serenaded them with the main chorus line from the song “Kiss Him Goodbye” by Steam.

    Question. David Mundell voted in favor of Brexit even though his constituency seemingly voted against. Is he at any risk of losing his seat over this?

  10. Chris – you predicted (maybe too strong a word) 25% a few days ago for Labour now close 20%, is that a revision based on the locals?

  11. @TOH – re the legal enforceability of any exit payment: This issue is a red herring, as I mentioned some time ago.

    It doesn’t need to be legally enforceable, and as it happens the fact that it isn’t legally enforceable makes it worse for the UK. It is precisely for this reason that the EU will require an agreement on the payment to be reached before any trade talks commence. The agreement that is struck on this will be legally enforceable – the EU will make sure of that – so whatever the lawyers say now is irrelevant.

    This entire meme has been a complete waste of time. Like many of the elements presented by the SNP regarding independence, this is the same. There are many issues that Westminster/the EU can’t legally enforce in a purely technical view, but an agreement is needed by the leaving entity to avoid gross economic upheaval, and therefore all those debated points will end up being agreed and enforced.

    May knows she can’t walk away without a trade deal, as if sdhe does, far too many companies will walk away from the UK. Therefore we will agree a payment and that payment will be legally enforced under whatever agreement we make, and despite the current legal position.

  12. I cannot see how Labour will poll anything like 29% in the GE. My best guess is 26% with a huge effort in next few weeks to shore up heartland vote.

    This gives Labour post 2017 GE a base ( post Corbyn and his team) to rebuild the Labour brand( which is still a very valuable asset – with the right leadership).

  13. @Socalliberal – The way STV works is that a voter marks all the candidates in order of preference. Sometimes they only mark some of the candidates in order of preference. First preferences are counted and if one candidate or more reaches the quota for election, the second preferences from his or her surplus are counted. If no one else reaches the quota, the worst performing candidate is eliminated and his or her votes redistributed according to second preferences. Counting then moves on to third preferences, fourth preferences, etc. until all the seats are filled via adding in redistributions. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote .

    Scotland uses STV for local elections, the Republic of Ireland uses it for all elections and Northern Ireland uses it for elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly and I think for local elections.

  14. Alec
    I probably agree with you that an agreement will be struck on the exit fee but I don’t agree that part of the agreement will be that it becomes legally enforceable. No way could that be agreed by Mrs May.
    It will be agreed in the time offered EU fashion, that nothing is finally agreed until everything is finally agreed. So in principle a figure of x will be provisionally agreed, now we will move onto a trade deal. If one satisfactory to both sides cannot be agreed, then the agreement on the fee falls.

  15. Good morning all from a sunny’ish Winchester.

    Polls still showing a strong Tory lead although some are questioning if TM will actually win a landslide or not. Personally, I see the Tory lead falling back a bit the closer we get to the election, however, I do see them winning a landslide with a majority of around 80 or more.

    Large parts of the country are still doped up on Brexit and Brexit only so this will cover up a multitude of Tory sins.

  16. @ Old Nat

    “Indeed, the SNP may well struggle to have only two-thirds of Scotland’s MPs! :-)”

    Try to imagine it this way. Over a quarter of Scotland’s MPs are Tories. Their constituents really don’t want Brexit (with support for it dropping further since the election). But all of the MPs vote for triggering Article 50 (with some telling reporters “It’s none of your business!” how they’ll vote on it and others having their staffers tell constituents that they didn’t know how they were voting). And then they all go over to 10 Downing Street to have a how-down celebration complete with beer with Theresa May on live television.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-brexit-mps-backlash_uk_588b6a84e4b02f223a01b3b7

    These people make me feel like Mr. Hamilton in the Waldorf Salad episode of Fawlty Towers. Or perhaps I feel that way in regards to Remainers who have simply surrendered.

    Btw, the opposition to the Resistance is starting to see some cracks. CA Republicans have been lockstep in their support of Dump. All the state legislative votes to protect citizens from Mango Mussolini have thus far been party line votes. But last week, one GOP State Senator voted in favor of the lawsuit to prevent off-shore oil drilling which Dump is attempting to expand off our coast.

  17. alec

    I think you need to pay more attention to the EU negotiating document.

    The EU does not require a deal to be done on the exit bill. It requires progress to made on that and on citizens and Ireland. The eU does not compartmentalise like that and the overriding principle is that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    As to legal enforceability words fail me.The EU particulars of claim are not based on legally enforceable treaty obligations hence they can junp from 60 to 100 bn on a whim. They are based on what in english law would be described as equity or inequity depending on your view. All this means is there is a high political content and all to play for.
    It will not be tied up until the trade deal is tied up

  18. GRAHAM
    “I have been pondering this week’s results in Scotland , and am now inclining to the view that the SNP will struggle to win 40 seats on June 8th. I expect them to lose seats to each of the three pro-Union parties”
    _____________

    I also expect the SNP to lose seats but none to Labour. The SNP are mostly weakest in seats where the Tories came second. Even my old seat of East Renfrew, can’t see it going Labour but will probably go, Tory or remain SNP.

    The SNP won 45% in 2011 Scottish election then won 32% in 2012 council election and in 2015 won 50% in the UK election. You can see the ups and downs in the various elections.

    My guess at the moment is the SNP will win at least 45 seats and a 43% share of the vote in June. Remember when Labour won 41 seats on 42% of the vote in 2010 it was considered a Labour landslide and Scotland was a Labour fiefdom.

  19. UKIP’s loss of ALL their 146 defended seats doesn’t say much for the quality of their councillors in office. You might have expected at least some councillors to hang on, irrespective of the national trend, if locals had found them to have been effective and hardworking representatives in practice.

  20. Chrislane
    ‘Ed was doing quite well in 2013, faring much worse in 2015, when, again, the polls were understating Tory votes and overstating Labour votes. (They have done in every GE since Feb 74) Lib Dem poll figures always seem a little high, I think.

    I think we are looking at a close to15% swing away from Labour to Cons (2015-2017) and therefore any MP with a majority of 30% or less is vulnerable. IMO’

    The polls did underestimate Labour in Feb 1974 – and they did so again in both 1983 & 2010.
    Your suggestion of a 15% swing from Labour to the Tories since 2015 would imply that the Tories will lead in the popular vote by 36.5%! Is that what you really expect? No poll todate has come up with a Tory lead greater than 25%.

  21. PROFHOWARD
    Apparently the swing to the Conservatives from the SNP in the Blairgowrie ward was 21%
    _____________

    A big swing in a single ward but overall the SNP only lost 2 councillors in Perth and Kinross which has always had a very strong Tory vote.

    I would have thought the fact the SNP has put an end to Labour’s 100 years near dominance in Glasgow was much more significant than the Tories winning a big swing in a village ward of about 500 people.

  22. Allan Christie

    Wikipedia says Conservatives are up 7 in Perth and Kinross (in which Blairgowrie sits) while SNP are down three in that same council, losing their much-coveted position as largest party.

  23. SOOTY
    UKIP’s loss of ALL their 146 defended seats doesn’t say much for the quality of their councillors in office. You might have expected at least some councillors to hang on, irrespective of the national trend if locals had found them to have been effective and hardworking representatives in practice.
    ______

    I’m not so sure. Quite a few long-standing Labour councillors lost their seats to Orange men standing for the Tories in West central Scotland and despite the areas being some of the most deprived in the UK and hardest hit by benefit sanctions and austerity, they voted Tory.

    In England, we have a Tory Brexit tide sweeping through working class areas and in Scotland, they have a mini Brexit and anti-independence tide sweeping through some parts of the country.

    Hopefully, by 2022 politics will be fought on policies and we will see a new administration representing actual people and not a grievance.

  24. AC
    ‘The SNP won 45% in 2011 Scottish election then won 32% in 2012 council election and in 2015 won 50% in the UK election. You can see the ups and downs in the various elections’
    That is a nonsequitur I think. The SNP polled 50% in May 2015 on the back of the Independence Referendum held less than eight months earlier. Had there not been such a Referendum , I doubt that the SNP would have been any higher than 30% in 2015.
    In last week’s elections Labour outpolled the SNP in East Lothian – Midlothian – a Paisley seat – and parts of Edinburgh. In point of fact , Labour was the party that outperformed expectations overall in terms of vote share – the SNP -and to some extent the Tories – underperformed – despite the gains in seats they enjoyed. I think Labour now has a reasonable possibility of polling 24%/25% in Scotland on June 8th , and a fall in SNP support to 38% – 40% will bring quite a few of their seats into play.

  25. @S Thomas

    “alec
    I think you need to pay more attention to the EU negotiating document.
    The EU does not require a deal to be done on the exit bill. It requires progress to made on that and on citizens and Ireland. The eU does not compartmentalise like that and the overriding principle is that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”

    Quite so. Even logically, it would be impossible to agree a figure on the exit bill at stage 1, as at that stage it would not be known precisely whether or not negotiations would be concluded by March 2019; and even if so to what extent any transitional arrangements agreed upon would involve the UK remaining within some EU institutions for a period thereafter.

  26. I think Labour will struggle to get the vote out and the Conservatives will win comfortably.

    After the election fortunes might change. There is, IMHO, a chance of a hard,fast Brexit. On 3rd May, the EU put out this document

    file:///home/chronos/u-ec33ebb796be53eb3752dfa7302859fe5b9bc538/Downloads/MEMO-17-1183_EN.pdf

    It says that, on Breixit, the UK will become a “third country”. So much then for Mrs May’s hope of a deep and special relationship. There never was any chance that the UK would be anything other than a third country. It would be politically impossible and silly to permit the UK to enjoy a better relationship with the EU outside it than within it. Also, the EU regulations that apply to third countries are what will apply to the UK outside the EU. It could not be otherwise. To give some special status to the UK as a third country would invite all other third countries to request the same special treatment. Third country status means can mean, for exporters, establishment checks and queues at Border Inspection Posts. The UK has no record as a “third country” so exporters can expect to have to meet the rules.

    The angry response on 3rd May by Mrs May was, IMHO, at least in part to the publishing of this document.

    There are no easy options to Brexit, IMHO. If “third country” status is chosen the EU has shown it will provide a running commentary. The difficulties facing the UK will, one by one, be revealed.

    If the UK chooses the EEA that will not resolve concerns about free movement.

    A hard Brexit would affect all of us but in particular NI and Ireland. It would probably worsen community relations in NI. That is the route I think will be taken. Doing it quickly allows the hope that other trade deals can quickly be done before the next general election. The payment/non-payment of £sss will be the precipitating factor.

  27. PROFHOWARD
    Allan Christie
    Wikipedia says Conservatives are up 7 in Perth and Kinross (in which Blairgowrie sits) while SNP are down three in that same council, losing their much-coveted position as largest party
    _________

    From the actual results online

    Perth and Kinross: NOC NO CHANGE
    SNP seats at last election: 17
    SNP seats now: 15
    Total seats on council: 40

    I reckon whoever put the info onto the wiki page is using a notional figure based on boundary changes but you’re correct the SNP have been replaced as the largest party by the Tories in P&K but at the same time the second largest party in local government has fallen from being just 26 seats behind the SNP in 2012 (Labour) to 154 seats in 2017 (The Tories).

    It’s the same in the Scottish parliament, the Tories came in second but are a smaller opposition than Labour when they were the second party.

  28. GRAHAM
    AC
    ‘The SNP won 45% in 2011 Scottish election then won 32% in 2012 council election and in 2015 won 50% in the UK election. You can see the ups and downs in the various elections’
    That is a nonsequitur I think. The SNP polled 50% in May 2015 on the back of the Independence Referendum held less than eight months earlier. Had there not been such a Referendum , I doubt that the SNP would have been any higher than 30% in 2015.
    In last week’s elections Labour outpolled the SNP in East Lothian – Midlothian – a Paisley seat – and parts of Edinburgh. In point of fact , Labour was the party that outperformed expectations overall in terms of vote share – the SNP -and to some extent the Tories – underperformed – despite the gains in seats they enjoyed. I think Labour now has a reasonable possibility of polling 24%/25% in Scotland on June 8th , and a fall in SNP support to 38% – 40% will bring quite a few of their seats into play.
    ______________

    Every party has a reaction to an event, of course the SNP got a bounce on the back of the indy ref but they never stood on a indy platform in 2015.

    I disagree with you on Labour’s performance in Scotland. They did worse than I was expecting. I thought they would come second in Edinburgh, remain the largest in Aberdeen and hold onto N Lanarkshire. They actually did slightly better than I thought in Glasgow but the Greens probably took part of the SNP vote in Glasgow.

    If the SNP’s vote falls to 45%, 43% 40% 38%, then quite a few seats will fall into place but I can’t see Labour taking anything off the SNP with the exception being East Ren which is more likely to go Tory.

  29. AC

    Labour polled 21.5% last week – just 1% behind the Tories. I am not aware of anyone having predicted that. I will now be very surprised if Labour fails to win East Lothian – as they did last year for Holyrood. They were ahead of the SNP in Midlothian too – and other SNP held seats. Six Labour seats on June 8th looks a good prospect now.

  30. GRAHAM

    Okay, you’re suggesting a mini Labour revival based on a couple of pockets in Scotland where Labour exceeded your expectations.

    You think them winning 6 seats looks to be a good prospect and I think they will win between 0 and 1 seat.

    I still follow Scottish politics regularly and I’ve not seen any suggestions anywhere that Labour will win anything near 6 seats.At best, they will lose Edinburgh South but gain East Ren.Worse case, they get nothing.

    You seem to be pegging Labour’s performance in Scotland with that of the Tories?? Labour being 1% behind the Tories in Scotland now seems to be a triumph…

  31. @ ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I suppose others factors are that UKIP was perceived as a one-issue party, was not long-established and probably had a much poorer organisational structure and less funding. Even so, for not one councillor to have impressed enough locals to give him/her a further term….

  32. AC
    Labour won East Lothian last year for Holyrood and did so again last week. I will be surprised if they fail to do that again on June 8th.

  33. SOOTY

    That’s probably true but TM’s hard Brexit has probably killed off the purple Kipper for now. I doubt 90% of the people who had a UKIP councillor even knew their names.
    ………..

    GRAHAM
    AC
    Labour won East Lothian last year for Holyrood and did so again last week. I will be surprised if they fail to do that again on June 8th.
    ___

    Ok, I’m going to agree with you on that, however, Labour loo like losing Edinburgh South to the Tories so it’s won 1 lose 1.

    Anyway..NEW THREAD..

  34. The director of independent think tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Paul Johnson, believes there’s little scope for raising significant sums from increasing tax on the highest earners.

    He says Labour’s suggestion is part of a “not entirely honest conversation politicians want to have” with voters – along the lines that, “someone else will pay for public services”.

    People earning more than £80,000 already pay a substantial amount of the total tax take, he continues.

    You can’t get much more by putting a few pence on income tax for the highest earners. If you really want to raise significant amounts of money to support public services, I’m afraid it can’t just be other people who pay, it has to be all of us.”

  35. I feel labour’s policies could unravel when it’s costed

  36. New thread.

    @NorthernRuralModeoMan

    Yes, that might be so. But YouGov specifically asked in the Sunday Times poll – if taxes had to increase where should the burden lie – 47% said the top rate of income tax.

  37. I doubt any of hte polls have asked this yet, but I think an instructive question would be to ask:

    “Imagine that the Brexit negotiations are complete and that a settlement has been reached. If that were already the case, how would you vote in the General Election?”

    Possibly with variations e.g. the UK has left without there being any agreement.

    There seem to be a lot of people voicing the opinion that they are voting Tory to make sure of (a hard) Brexit. Once that is achieved, how then will they vote?

  38. RAF

    Yes, that might be so. But YouGov specifically asked in the Sunday Times poll – if taxes had to increase where should the burden lie – 47% said the top rate of income tax.

    It’s axiomatic that when asked who should pay an increase in tax the reply will be the top rate payers.A popular tax is one someone else pays.

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