The weekly Panelbase GB poll has topline figures of CON 47%(-2), LAB 30%(+3), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 5%(nc), GRN 2%(-1). Changes are from a week ago. The Conservative lead is down five points from last week, but remains at a healthy seventeen points.

Polls do all seem to be agreeing that the huge Conservative lead we saw at the beginning of the campaign has faltered a bit – the difference appears to be how much it has shrunk: YouGov suggested a sharp narrowing, ICM only a tiny one, Panelbase somewhere inbetween. The best rule of thumb, as ever, remains to look at the broad trend in the polls, not read too much into any individual set of figures.

Tabs for Panelbase are here.

UPDATE:
There is also a new Kantar poll. Their topline figures with changes from a week ago are CON 48%(+2), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 7%(-1). This rather upsets my earlier statement about all the polls showing a narrowing of the Tory lead! Tables are here.


234 Responses to “Panelbase – CON 47, LAB 30, LD 10, UKIP 5”

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  1. That French debate is brutal.

    Le Pen: France will be led by a woman, it will be either me or Mme Merkel.

  2. Chris

    Kantar own TNS

  3. @ TREVOR WARNE

    Interesting point about the possibility of a LD/Green electoral deal, but I’m not sure it would be relevant without Labour. Had every Green voter in seats the Tories went on to win in 2015 actually voted LibDem, it would have meant the LibDems picking up only 5 seats, and most with 3-figure majorities.

    Going further, seats that the Tories won in 2015 where the combined LD+Green vote would have been even within 3,000 of the Tory vote brings only another 5 into play, and that’s without allowing for the proportion of Green voters who either would not tactically vote at all, or who would not vote LibDem for whatever reasons.

    I don’t know how large either of those groups are, but they don’t have to be very big at all to make the impact of an alliance negligible.

  4. I think the UK is being played and expertly.

    The big issues here are Controling our Borders, Making our own Laws and Not paying into the EU.

    May, the Government, the Tories, the Press at most of the public want to Cut Immigration, get rid of the ECJ and balk at paying £20-30m let alone £70-90.

    It looks increasingly like the UK will man the baracades on each of these and will fight to the last bullet to get all three.

    Which is exactly what the EU wants, the U.K. tilting at Windmills while they deal with what matters.

    From their point of view, opposing Free Movement was an issue that disrupted the Single Market but as we’re leaving who cares, us perhaps, but not them.

    Likewise the ECJ, it mattered that all states used the same rules but if we’re outside that’s not really an issue, except for us.

    As to the exit bill, well it sounds big but compared to the size of the EU economy or the volume of trade it’s really not a great deal. They will have to adjust without our money and that won’t be fun, but the financial crisis and recession have been a lot worse.

    The idea that Germany having dug deep to prop up Greece and cater for a million refugees is quaking at having to pay a bit more or cut a bit doesn’t pass muster.

    So what’s their game?

    For me they want us to focus all our attention and efforts into battling over things that don’t mean anything really.

    It’s a well tried and effective military tactic; the meat grinder.

    Size something of no strategic value to you but symbolic or sentimental value to your opponent and then dig in and watch them exhaust themselves throwing themselves against your defences.

    Get them to march on Moscow and then sit and watch them freeze to death at it’s gates while you keep hold of the vital Oilfields in the warm South.

    So what do the EU actually want and what are they trying, rather successfully to distract us from?

    They want to significantly and perminantly shift the balance of trade between us. They still want it to grow, they still want it to prosper, but they also want to get more out of it than they do now.

    They currently sell more to us than we do to them and they want that imbalance not just to continue but to widen.

    Many Brexit supporters predict that our share of exports to the EU will diminish and they are probably right but the volume of EU exports to us may well fall to, but not by as much.

    For them success is going from trade worth 100 split 55/45 to trade worth 110 split 70/40.

    The more we are diverted, if not fixated, with other issues the more likely they are to stitch us up on long term trade.

    The longer we as the clock ticks the more anxious business will become the more investment will be delayed.

    The more the Government is occupied with issues like the ECJ the less well prepared it will be to deal with the trucks stacking up at Dover.

    The whole EU stance is slight of hand and smoke and mirrors, with the UK watching for the card we picked, the Ace of Borders, while they steal our watch.

    Right now I am thinking , to paraphrase HG Wells.

    Who would have thought that in the early part of the twenty first century that we were being studied like Germs under a microscope, from across the Channel by Others with minds immensely more powerful than our own…

    And slowly, inexorably they are laying their plans…….

    Peter.

  5. @CANDY

    I’ve tried watching it in French but I can’t keep up with all the interruptions. The English translation is terrible with too much literal translation and pauses that aren’t there. I dare say it’s hard to do. I certainly couldn’t. What comes over most is their mutual dislike. You have to admire le Pen’s ability to brush off all criticism and try to frame Macron as Holande junior then blame him for everything Holande has done or not done. All with a straight face.

    If TM is watching she will be even more sure that live TV debates suck.

  6. Well front pages on local election polling day are Theresa May outside Number 10 being tough standing up for UK.
    Lead story on news night before polling day.
    Good job it was not raining. Strong image.
    Will local undecidededs be swayed by national news or vote on local issues ?

  7. @rmj1

    I was struck by how much German bashing was going on. Will this resonate?

  8. The Kantar/TNS poll is interesting insofar as it does not show any increase in the Labour share, despite others having some so.

    A house effect? We shall see.

  9. RAF

    I am not sure why you are so insistent about this. The UK would certainly expect to pay something as part of the negotiations and to help secure a decent trade deal, but they are not floating any particular figure other than to say they would not expect it to be in the sort of area suggested by the EU.

    The EU has floated specific figures of 60 billion and 100 billion and want to agree whatever figure is agreed prior to the start of trade negotiations. To me this is more of a ‘demand’ than the UK position.

    But does it really matter what we call them?

  10. PETER CAIRNS ( SNP ) ……..I don’t share your glee, in fact I dispute just about everything you assert. But, then again, I’ve never been a loser, perhaps that’s my problem, what’s your excuse ? ;-)

  11. @CANDY

    Unfortunately it will to some extent. Quite a lot of French people don’t much like the Germans despite the politicians trying to keep close to them. It’s a wound that really doesn’t need any more salt.

  12. Just been watching Panorama about the disapparance of Madeleine McCann. Not relevant to us, except there was a cameo appearance of Theresa May appearing on oath to the Leveson enquiry, talking about this. Panorama, or their witnesses, alleged that May lied about the explanation she gave how the government came to send British police to investigate. OK, politicians are always claiming credit for doing things which seem vote winers, but Leveson was about the behaviour of the press and whether on balance it was justified. May, home secretary, could be seen to have deliberately lied so as to discredit the press.

    Not the main thrust of the program at all, so probably wont get picked up. But there it is, another small chip in the PMs reputation.

  13. Somerjohn

    It’s also an estimate of the gross amount, the net amount was still the 60Bn number. I suspect the FT are having a bit of a giggle at the way it’s played out.

    Peter Cairns

    Great… Now I have Brexit: The Jeff Wayne Musical Version stuck in my head.

  14. @petercairns:

    I think the EU are asking for things for a reason. 1. Establish we enter negotiations in the spirit of Homer Simpson: Before you say anything I want to make it clear I am desparate to sell and will take any price. 2. Jurisdiction of ECJ, no one accepts jurisdiction of a foreign court – and the ECJ has a record of political bias comparable with US judges, except all one way. 3. The reason they want the ECJ is they say they don’t trust us – fantastic start to accept that.

    It is more in the line of bait and switch than meat grinder.

    Anyway, if the Guardian coverage is right the main EU protagonists have been like Joe Pesci in the restaurant scene in Goodfellas, where he suddenly laughs and it’s all a joke.

  15. Peter Cairns,
    “I think the UK is being played and expertly.”

    Liked the analysis. Not sure I entirely agree, because I see it far more as the UK inventing an enemy and having done so, then exhausting itself fighting futilely against it. The EU didnt ask the UK to leave, and it has made no changes to its normal procedures about what has happened now. Its all England engaged in picking a fight and then fighting against itself.

    But I have always thought the net result will be an economic benefit to the remainder of the EU. Part of our relative decline in trade with the EU is probably because some of our benefits from membership – as the poor nation joining, which we were – had already worn away as we became richer, but we have certainly chosen to throw away those that remain.

  16. @rmj1

    If that’s the case, Merkel is a fool for interfering in their elections (first for Sarkozy in his fight against Hollande in 2012 and now for Macron). What is going on in her head?

    I’m glad Mrs May has not made any comments about any of the continental elections.

  17. TintinHaddock (from previous thread)

    Welcome to the madhouse!

    John Chanin’s response to you was fair. I’d just add that every pollster is aware that their methodologies can introduce distortions, so they try to weight the responses differentially to compensate for that.

    Some, whether internet, phone or face to face may be more successful than others.

  18. Peter Cairns

    Taking your HG Wells line, can you remind me please, who won in the end, the Martians (read EU from your paraphrasing) or the people of Earth (read UK, again from your paraphrasing)?

  19. One thing seems clear from these discussions regarding the EU. If the Europeans would prefer the UK remain then the Lib Dem proposal for a referendum on the final deal with the options being to approve it or remain in the EU would only encourage the EU to offer only the worst possible deal to the UK therefore ensuring it is rejected.

  20. Interesting update from Kantar. As I suggested yesterday, following “that” interview, the Conservatives will see a poll bounce. On a point of interest, I know many responded yesterday that the interview would have little impact.

    I beg to differ because it was that bad. In my workplace, where politics receives little mention ever (despite my best efforts!) this morning everyone was talking about the infamous interview. On the BBC news website on their related blog to the story, there were about 4,000 posts – I’ve never seen a reaction like it. It may be a temporary bounce but a bounce there will be, and Labour can’t afford it because there isn’t much time to claw the bounce back.

  21. New thread guys

  22. Ken,

    “..I don’t share your glee!”

    There’s no glee on my part. The prospect of the U.K. getting turned over by the EU is certainly not one I want or look forward too.

    However I do think that the EU wants to focus us on fighting over things that don’t matter to them for as long as possible to encourage business to switch gradually towards them over the next five years…..

    Two till Brexit and then, “because it’s in everyone’s interest” another couple to make sure we get the right deal.

    Peter.

  23. Macron versus Le Pen a low scoring draw I think. Each would please their own supporters and that should suit Macron who is a long way ahead. What that means for the UK we have yet to find out. There was too much trading of insults for my liking and not much policy except in very broad brush terms.

  24. Well, two things in life seem certain:

    First, that all Tory PM’s quickly become infected by the Brussels paranoia virus, and second, that whenever water companies warn us that a drought is on the way, summer will be wet.

    So it looks like we are in for a wet summer with the PM thrashing about, frothing at the mouth and madly denouncing those stupid foreigners who are trying to undermine her in some kind of Hitleresque Downfall parody. It’s a bit pathetic really.

    Somewhat alarmingly, it also demonstrates a total failure to understand what has gone on. In her rant she blamed the Brussels bureaucrats, appearing to draw a distinction with the 27 heads of state who she says we can deal with.

    She’s behaving like such a complete numpty that she hasn’t even spotted that the bureaucrats original draft negotiation plan has actually been toughened up after the consultation with the 27 heads of state.

    Daft, with a capital D, even as election stunt.

  25. David

    I agree totally with your point.

    Further I think it is instances like this that remain in the electorates subconscious, this far out from the election they may not by themselves play an apparently deciding role in how a swing voter may decide on the day, but it will temper how such voters view other information about the candidates and will therefore play a major indirect role in how such voters vote. The problem here for Labour is that it may also add to the weight of reasoning Labour votes decide not to vote at all. Either or both are likely to be a disaster for Labour at this present time, and more affecting the outcome than any possible apathy on the part of Conservative voters not to vote.

  26. Do pollsters keep the raw data in an unaggregated form?

    I ask because one of the issues pollsters seem to have is with getting the right turnout figures as there is disagreement within the community as how to weight by turnout.

    I think I recall that Yougov does a recontact style of poll at elections so that out of the people contacted, you know who actually voted and who didn’t.

    What sort of accuracy do you get in terms of predicting who would vote and who wouldn’t? I suspect that the answer to the question “Will you Vote” will only be only of many factors which will be significant with regard to the event of someone voting or not.

  27. Via Britain Elects:

    ” Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (+4)
    LAB: 29% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (-1)

    (via @YouGov / 02 – 03 May)
    Chgs. w/ 28 Apr “

  28. @ANdrew111

    Re voters: actually you can tell the Express that I actually love the little bleeders.

    My irreverence probably comes from my boss during the 90’s when I worked in a highly competitive business to business sales environment. We sold to dealers and had only 20 or 30 of them so each one was pampered and we got severe rollickings if, say, a delivery was late.But boss habitually referred to customers as punter-wallies.

  29. That Kantar poll is pretty brutal for Labour – if it wasn’t for younger women Jeremy Corbyn would be completely wiped off the map. As it is they are going to save his skin – he will only get smashed out of sight.

  30. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    I don’t blame the EU at all. They hold the cards. Sure, Theresa May and ConKip will enjoy HUGE unprecedented support from the country against these blasted foreigners but the EU holds the cards and will be stitching us up good and proper. We joined them it’s hopeless to pretend we can leave without a good beating.

    After all, we import a lot, and sell off a lot. Not just the EU but everywhere. What do we own these days? What do we make? Most of our shops have been sold to foreign companies… football clubs, London Buses, Cadburys, hotels, airports, London taxis, car companies, Tetley tea, Boots, channel tunnel, supermarkets, care homes, energy companies, even the blooming lottery. The list is huge.

    If Spain has a frost, our supermarkets run out of salad ingredients. Most of which could be grown here (and perhaps will be again after Brexit – but will cost more).

    The ones we kept we allowed the government, media and executives to undermine and destroy, e.g. MG Rover (always wondered why we’re so good at designing things but awful at management).

  31. Thee reason the Tory lead is declining is because people are no longer thinking about the election as carefully as the were the day after was announced.

    Corbynite sympathisers, which comprise a higher percentage of obsessives will be as committed as they ever are, but the more agnostic segment of Mrs May’s support with better things to do than think about politics day in day out have now gone quieter.

    The Tory lead will reassert itself closer to the day. In any case by far the best Opinion Poll is being conducted today at the local elections.

    Unencumbered with Corbyn and Farron, Labour and the Lib Dems should perform far better in these Local Elections than they will at the General election.

    Do if the Tory lead is anything like 17% today Corbyn is set to be obliterated on June 8th.

  32. Although others have said it, Anthony, a big thank you for an incredibly useful summary to quote at the usual scoffers about polling.

    I have just read Yanks Yourofakis in the Guardian. What a frightening analysis of the EU. To think we have been a participating member of such an undemocratic-pan-european conspiracy for so long. I was Remain, but if what he believably writes is true we must walk away or get an off the shelf style deal as he proposes for the transition period.

  33. Yanis. ….not Yanks courtesy of my blessed predictive text!! Sorry

  34. @Tony Dean:

    The bit about leaning on China not to buy bonds was extraordinary. Like Crassus bribing the pirates not to transport Spartacus and his followers out of the empire because you want to crush them.

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