ICM’s weekly poll for the Guardian today has topline figures of CON 47%(nc), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday, and clearly don’t show any meaningful change at all. The sharp narrowing in the Tory lead that YouGov was showing last week is clearly not echoed in ICM’s polling, which shows only a tiny drop from 21-22 points in their two polls last week to 19 points in their two polls this week. The full tabs are here.

ICM also had some questions on the campaign so far. Asked about whether the leaders were running a good or bad campaign Theresa May was the only one to get a positive rating (41% good, 22% bad). Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings were almost a mirror image (21% a good campaign, 40% a bad campaign); Tim Farron was 17% good, 28% bad; Paul Nuttall was 8% good, 31% bad. Most of these answers were, of course, rather partisan – Conservative voters think May is doing well, Labour voters think Corbyn is doing well, but it’s a useful reminder of how people interpret campaigns through their existing partisan filters. People are very forgiving of the failings of their “own side”, all to ready to see the missteps of the “other side” as disasterous.


140 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 47, LAB 28, LD 8 UKIP 8”

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  1. S Thomas,
    you seem to have missed the most obvious explanation. The EU has consistently stated its position, which has not changed while this entire saga has been going on. Why do you believe it will change now, or do you not?

    I would imagine the EU already has contingency plans on how it wants to deal with the Uk simply walking away. probably had them ready at the time of the referendum, since they seem a lot more organised.

    By the way, you perhaps ought to chill a little. As I see it, Brexit is descending into total farce, what with one thing and another. If its not May and Davis holding a dinner party its Dianne on mathematics.

  2. S Thomas
    I agree that the latest EU leaks will only strengthen Leaver (and hence Tory) resolve. I wonder if their tone will change when they realise that if the EU budget is to be kept near it’s current level, that a lot of countries will change from net beneficiaries to net contributors?

  3. Danny
    What has Abbott’s terrible interview to do with Brexit?

  4. Pete B: “How do you know that [Bigotgate] didn’t dent Labour, and that we ended up with a coalition rather than a Labour majority?”

    There was no shift in the polls. This was an election where conventional wisdom was that lots of traditional Labour supporters were very unhappy on immigration, and Labour was trying to promise that it was taking the matter seriously.

    Then there is something all over the news which strongly suggests that the Labour leadership still thinks that concerns about immigration is for bigots. Certainly, Labour thought it was potentially disastrous at the time.

    Yet, no movement in the polls. Just like Bullygate – which was a somewhat manufactured scandal, but gave Brown very bad write ups for days on end. No movement in the polls.

    It may be that the EU can generate relentless bad predictions on the outcome of Brexit and attacks on May that Leave-voting morale collapses in the next five weeks. I think despite the hiatus in negotiations, there will an awful lot of comments from the EU. But then you read what Charles Grant is quoted as saying in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/02/may-juncker-will-find-me-bloody-difficult-woman-in-brexit-talks), they might be in danger of jumping the shark.

  5. Joseph1832
    “A draft of the EU’s main negotiating text suggests that Barnier will spell out on Wednesday that the ECJ will be Brussels’ arbiter of choice”

    And who will be the UK’s ‘arbiter of choice’ I wonder? Reading that article, we might as well walk away now. They seem to have short memories of how the British people don’t like to be bullied. If this stuff has any traction at all with the voting public it can only strengthen Tories/UKIP IMO.

  6. Pete B,
    “I agree that the latest EU leaks will only strengthen Leaver (and hence Tory) resolve”
    I think they will work on both leave and remain. The recent polls have seen steadily increasing polarisation between labour and conservative on leave and remain, and I imagine this will increase as we proceed.

    “What has Abbott’s terrible interview to do with Brexit?”
    There were several posts above about this. We are only having an election at all because May cannot get through Brexit on her current mandate. Labour have no policy on Brexit either, most of them have taken their toys and refuse to play. The whole thing is more of a farce than a grown up political debate, which was my point.

  7. @CROY

    “But the cost to the exchequrer (and police authorities) should include these costings”

    ———–

    Ideally yes. Whether that’s the norm is summat else. But you only mentioned expenses and I just wanted to piling out there can be savings or earnings too, indeed its possible for such policies to be a net gain.

    (It’s possible for them to be a disappointment too, of course…)

  8. piling = point

    More on the partisan thing.

    Peeps May at times reach the conclusion that there is much partisanship about and peeps are reluctant to change, because of assorted peeps not changing their vote.

    But it may be some actually find themselves persuaded by Green policies, but still vote Labour because more likely to form a government. Or they might be persuaded by LD policies but LDs are nowhere in their constituency so they keep voting as before for the party in a better position to win.

  9. Danny
    “We are only having an election at all because May cannot get through Brexit on her current mandate.”

    Thanks for your reply. You may well be right about the mandate. There have been many reasons proposed for the early election. I think one of the most important reasons was that if Brexit is in the manifesto, the Lords shouldn’t oppose it, whereas they could before because it wasn’t in the 2015 manifesto.

    G’night all.

  10. pete B,
    ” They seem to have short memories of how the British people don’t like to be bullied”

    Again, this cuts both ways. I think the EU has decided it will not follow Cameron’s example, where he said he was afraid to use the worst case scenarios for fear of being disbelieved. The EU plans to put the case for remain by pointing out what will happen. It is not a bluff, and never has been. It is pretty obvious why their position has to be as it is. Either you obey the rules already in place and get the perks, or you do not and dont.

    But…when the current kerfuffle dies down and real negotiations begin, They will also have helped May’s position if she announces she cannot proceed with Brexit. Someone has to make the case why it is prohibitively costly to do so. (and I do not mean the leaving bill when I say cost, but future trading opportunities)

  11. Carfrew,
    “Or they might be persuaded by LD policies but LDs are nowhere in their constituency so they keep voting as before for the party in a better position to win.”

    So a falling lib vote share just might be indicative that tactical voting is working, and lib gains are still on the cards. As I said, the whole thing is simply Alice in wonderland. A pollster might despair.

  12. pete B,
    “if Brexit is in the manifesto, the Lords shouldn’t oppose it, whereas they could before because it wasn’t in the 2015 manifesto. ”

    Another optimistic hope i think. The absence of detail over Brexit will inevitably give their lordships much wriggle room, even if they accept the convention not to interfere- which they might not. Their lordships want reform.

  13. I.e. The nature of the voting system forces peeps to vote in ways that disguise their willingness to change their view.

  14. @ Danny
    “……cannot proceed with Brexit”

    This is just never going to happen! I was Remain, but all these putative scenarios for not leaving just don’t ring true to me. I suspect There’s a May already knows what is going to happen. A post Brexit UK will initially be more difficult for most – even with an EU-framed deal. So politically it would be better to crash out and blame unreasonable johnnie foreigner and she can play wounded and wronged Britannia – most of the electorate will buy this strategy better and still back her, rather than admitting voting leave was a mistake.

  15. @Danny

    “So a falling lib vote share just might be indicative that tactical voting is working, and lib gains are still on the cards. As I said, the whole thing is simply Alice in wonderland. A pollster might despair.”

    ————–

    A falling Lib vote share could even be associated with more people liking the Lib Dems.

    Because your priority might be to eject or limit Tories or Labour if you think they’re being especially bad at the moment. So you might vote for the party best-placed to do that, which might not be Lib Dems, even though you might prefe LD policies etc.

  16. Regarding turnout for this election: part of the reason the opinion polls got it wrong on Brexit was that they were expecting general election levels of turnout, but the referendum turnout was substantially higher (72% vs 66% in the 2015 general election).

    My feeling is that Leavers will turn out in force again to get the Double Democratic Lock on Brexit. Which means that if there is a drop in turnout it will be on the Remain side for various reasons.

  17. Tony Dean,
    ” most of the electorate will buy this strategy better and still back her, rather than admitting voting leave was a mistake”

    Who knows. Either they will or they wont. If Brexit goes well, then all is fine. If it doesnt, then the conservative party will switch to remain. I am scepticcal that voters really have as much skin in the game as you suggest, such that they will not change their minds. Clearly Leave believe that they have not won yet or they would not be fighting so hard now.

    Extraordinary as it might seem, hardly anything about Brexit has happened yet.

  18. “There was no shift in the polls.”

    —————

    That doesn’t necessarily mean Labour weren’t affected by Bigotgate. It’s possible for example that they were set to recover some ground but this was wiped out by Bigotgate…

  19. I’m curious about something. The British press seems to hate and revile Emmanuel Macron. Non-stop critical editorials, non-stop negative headlines, non-stop negative headlines. And then the Guardian, which is left wing, seems to have this non-stop fascination with his wife and their unusual relationship rather than any reporting on the election. Can anyone explain to me why this is?

  20. At least the House of Lords has been exposed for the ermine clad anomaly that it is.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if Gina Miller is a Baroness by 2019!

  21. Candy – that is the question will the non-GE voters who voted leave in the referendum vote Tory in the GE based on Brexit means Brexit and how many Lab leavers will vote Tory (or abstain). Few Tory remainers seem prepared to move their vote?

  22. @Soccal

    The Leave-supporting press are so obsessed with Brexit that they’re desperate for France to elect a fascist to harm the EU. Their entire collective moral compass has disintegrated. At some point they’re going to twig, but not just yet. The Guardian meanwhile has been having a year-long nervous breakdown and just assume the worst about everything.

    Also, Macron has come as a huge shock to everyone and nobody is quite sure what to do or say about him. The scenario for 4 years was supposed to be Le Pen wins first round, Fillon the second. Everyone from Le Pen on up has been thrown into chaos. Note the constant focus on Le Pen voters and none on Macron voters. Nobody is actually bothering to ask why people voted for him. He’s outside the assigned narrative. Our press is generally pretty right wing and they’re appalled and bereft that the French voted for a Europhile centrist and are terrified that the UK electorate might stop doing as they’re told and get their own ideas so they’re ignoring him and hoping he’ll go away. I predict he’ll be the target of more lies in our press than Merkel. And since the Germans found that the Mail and the Express were the two biggest online sources of fake news about Merkel, that will be a lot of lying.

  23. EU negotiating tactics

    I post this because the topic may well affect VI.

    The tactics of the EU are puzzling. If one takes 3 current topics,namely

    a. That TM is delusional;
    b. That the divorce bill doubles overnigtht to an unpalatable sum;
    c. That the EU prohibits TM from negotiating.

    while that may be the position the fact that those matters are put out there during an election cannot be other than deliberate.

    Making the big assumption that they have not taken leave of their senses and this is part of a strategy there are 3 possible reasons for this:

    a. They have taken the view that the UK will wallk away from all negotiations (save citizen rights) after the election and are getting some prejudice in first;
    b They are not interested in a negotiated settlement themselves and are provoking the UK to walk away;Perhaps they consider that this willl break up the Union and fits this uk punishment agenda.They will be able to say that leaving the EU smashed Britain!
    c. They are confident that the UK will pay £100bn to the eU and TM will absent herself from negotiations at their command.

    Tricky times. where is D Abbott when you need her:-)?

  24. There has been quite a lot in the French press about Macron and his private life but the French are not judgemental on such things. He is regarded as something of an outsider but it is often pointed out that his route to the top is in many ways quite conventional. If he had waited a few years and then made a bid to represent the centre left, then he would have followed the normal path. He has decided that he is not comfortable with the centre left parties because he is a capitalist at heart so has taken a different path. He has been applauded for taking the risk, which may, if he had flopped badly, have ended his political career.

    Marcon gives both the centre left and centre right some comfort but he is very pro Europe so wants the reforms he proposes to be Europe wide with France leading the way. A bit like Tony Blair? Possibly in his early years. The French quite liked Blair and don’t much care about the British press.

  25. Macron is a French Nick Clegg.

  26. @Tony Dean

    “….most of the electorate will buy this strategy better and still back her, rather than admitting voting leave was a mistake.”

    Possibly in England and Wales I’m not so sure about N Ireland and Scotland which will suffer the most from a “no deal”.

  27. @Carfrew:

    I can’t rule out Bigotgate coinciding with a possible revival. Lots of people about to change opinions, but don’t. But it would have to be very precise in timing.

    But such things are long term damaging. A part of the accumulated picture on immigration which no Pledge Cups or Edstones can reverse.

    But it is as AW says, supporters look sympathetically on what their side does. Take the EU apparently (per FT) adding €40bn to its financial demand:

    1. Clegg & Co will say the EU just going deeper into calculations.
    2. Leavers will just say that the EU is being greedy, and there’ll be no end of additions.

    But if the EU are hoping to affect UK public opinion, they risk playing to their own gallery of loyalists in the UK. The strategy can only work if they create a collapse in Leaver morale – so expect daily horrified announcements. Anything short of escalating to the nuclear no-deal option will just affect opinion too slowly.

  28. I’m a newbie and was wondering if someone could answer some basic questions for me. As polling is mostly done over the internet do these figures reflect just those voters who engage with politics online? Don’t these voters tend to be more committed and partisan? How does YouGov reach the tranche of Labour voters who don’t engage with politics online? Are these the ones who are more likely to be swayed and switch? Is the Tory vote being underestimated? Thanks.

  29. @SThomas:

    The EU wants to raise the price of a deal until either it amounts to surrender or the talks collapse.

    They are right that May cannot be part of Brexit talks about EU leaders – one of the things made clear in A.50. Like talking about the future framework, and EU law ends when the member state leaves. Only the EU has pretty much deleted the things that it doesn’t want.

    The interesting thing was how they made even a statement of clear legality and common sense sound like a threat. I expect they wanted an angry response before HMG thinks about it, so they can but us in our place.

    Still, there are some who believe that, if the EU does it, it cannot be unreasonable.

  30. There is much speculation as to why TM called the GE. Only the most intimate members of her inner circle know the true reason(s) but I would speculate that it is no single issue, rather a cumulative number of issues, of varying importance. I would imagine that being unable to get through her budget because of the existing manifesto under which she operates must be near the top, combined with Opinion Polls being just too good to ignore, goading by Nicola Sturgeon, expenses, giving herself breathing space post Brexit and before next election, an increased majority enabling to face down the awkward squad on the Back Benches, and an assumption that at some point in the next 3 years, had she not called an election, the Opposition may have become more effective.

    Having called the election, for which the Tory Election Machine was clearly ill prepared, I think her Mohammed Ali tactics (lean against the ropes, and watch the opposition exhaust themselves trying to land punches, before, coming out with one’s own assault) has been a masterstroke. The recent survey showing the Tories, thus far, running the best campaign is justification of the tactic – they are winning the campaign without campaigning. Yesterday classic example, TM did a few staged visits in South West, but what dominated headlines? Diane Abbott and EU possibly increasing divorce settlement – one possibly contributing to loss of a labour vote or two, and one increasing Tory vote.

    But how long will Tories dare stay on the ropes, watching the opposition trying to land punches and exhausting themselves? Perhaps when their manifesto is launched they will counter attack, but if opinion polls don’t shift too much, why should they risk exposing their manifesto policies to close scrutiny? Why not stay schtum if the punches are ineffectual?

    The main problem is it that didn’t end too well for Mohammed Ali in later life!

  31. Regarding Diane Abbotts interview I agree it was terrible but thecosting of 300m seems about right to me. We are talking about new police officers, they start on £19,773, by their fourth year they are on £24,975, so lets say around 22,500 a year average salary. Even if they were all employed at once it would be 225m, but as we know they will be employed over 4 years so it will be significantly less than this and even with incidentals like training, uniform, employer National insurance contributions I doubt it woukd be more than 300m pounds a year.
    ( in the Met they do get a £2,373 allowance but it would make only a small difference to the overall picture)

  32. We are leaving and no matter how painful, short of a Weimar style collapsewe aren’t going back, because no one ever does.

    That’s why talk of Ireland joining the UK is wishful, if not wistful thinking.
    Virtually no nation that has voluntarily sought Independence has ever gone back, even when it seemed to make sense.

    It could be down to National Pride or Loss Aversion, but it sparsely ever happens, indeed Although their may be some I can’t think of example.

    So as Bilbo said;

    “I don’t know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve…….This is the End. Iam going. Iam leaving Now. goodbye”

    Peter.

  33. “Conservative voters think May is doing well, Labour voters think Corbyn is doing well, but it’s a useful reminder of how people interpret campaigns through their existing partisan filters. People are very forgiving of the failings of their “own side”, all to ready to see the missteps of the “other side” as disasterous.”

    Very true. I’m dealing with some Corbyn style folks right now who are supporting an incompetent and completely unqualified candidate to be Chair of the California Democratic Party. She’s got no idea what she’s talking about and has some proposed some truly bad ideas. But she’s got a cult-like group of supporters and she’s building this interesting coalition. The most psychotic/mentally unhinged Bernie Sanders supporters with a couple of opportunistic regular Democrats who are seeking to make a power play. It’s Corbynism.

  34. Britain Elects? 
    @britainelects
    Follow

    More
    Our polling average update:

    Con: 46.1% (+8.3)
    Lab: 27.3% (-3.9)
    LDem: 10.3% (+2.5)
    UKIP: 7.2% (-5.7)
    Grn: 2.8% (-1.0)

    Chgs w GE2015 result

    6% swing Lab – Con but I am not sure if this includes the latest poll which has Lab a bit higher and LD a bit lower.

  35. Lots of entertaining stuff here about the machinations of the dastardly EU. But I think there’s a much simpler explanation. The way Britain, its politicians and its press are behaving have had the effect of severely undermining the residual goodwill towards the UK that exists in most European countries. The scales have been dropping from eyes, and what is revealed is not appealing. Thus attitudes in the EU27 have hardened, not in the direction of ‘punishment’ but towards indifference. Who can blame them if they simply want to see the back of us? And if we’re saying that no deal is the preferred option, then I suspect they are becoming intensely relaxed about facilitating that.

    That is just my surmise. I haven’t been able to find recent surveys tracking public perceptions of the UK amongst EU27 electorates.

  36. @ Chris Riley

    “The Leave-supporting press are so obsessed with Brexit that they’re desperate for France to elect a fascist to harm the EU. Their entire collective moral compass has disintegrated. At some point they’re going to twig, but not just yet. The Guardian meanwhile has been having a year-long nervous breakdown and just assume the worst about everything.”

    This makes sense. The American media was terrible with Dump until he was selected by the electoral college and showed off his true fascist leanings. Then suddenly, they no longer gave him free passes on everything. You know what the problem is? A more dishonest politician than Dump you could not find. But because he is so willing to go out and say extremely bigoted things, he gained a reputation as “honest” and “trustworthy.” It reminds me of a joke my brother once told about how every racist joke (with white people) begins.

    Brexit vote is a completely self-inflicted and unneccessary wound. But if you’re against the stupidity, you don’t have much of a choice in leadership right now. IMHO, the only one in the UK who’s leading a party and actually a leader worth voting for wants to leave the UK and only fields candidates in one part of the country. :(

  37. Extending my previous post, the mirror image effect seems to be taking place in the UK. An increasing number of Brits, in the current climate, simply want to see the back of the EU.

    It all seems to be moving inexorably towards Brexit without a trade deal. That will be disastrous for Britain and a minor hiccough for the EU, but we’re gathering speed on a slippery slope and I accept there’s no going back. Poor Britain.

  38. Danny
    So a falling lib vote share just might be indicative that tactical voting is working, and lib gains are still on the cards. As I said, the whole thing is simply Alice in wonderland. A pollster might despair.

    Has polling ever been done to perhaps ask which party a voter is most ideologically aligned with and also who they intend to vote for? That might be quite revealing.

  39. @ Robert Newark
    Heartily agree with your last post. I was Remain, but have since been appalled by arrogance of EU leaders. It makes me think “who the hell do they think they’re talking to, San Marino?” They cannot regard the UK as separate entities, economic, counter-espionage/terrorism capability, nuclear military power. They seem to want to ignore the last two and treat us just as a wobbly economic power giving us no credit for the protection we help provide them with via the latter two. I think May will make them realise that the UK should be treated in the round, all three aspects – and they really don’t like that because then they cannot bully us into a punitive deal. If I think this, as a Labour member, what must uncommitted voters be thinking right now?

  40. @NeilJ and Somerjohn
    1. Police pay scales http://www.polfed.org/ranks/3277.aspx
    2. Plus various allowances, + pension and national insurance
    3. Equipment, support, supervision

    But most importantly, it is presumably not intended to sack them all at the end of the 4-yer recruitment period?

    @Carfrew “a proper costing would take into account potential SAVINGS as a result of less crime, and then multiplier effects of putting extra money into the economy, etc., as peeps spend more in the economy, attracting business investment etc.”
    The effects on the economy as a whole of employing 10,000 people as police officers rather than as something else are to say the least hard to quantify and overshadowed by the uncertainties affecting the economy as a whole.

    As Croy said “They reached these costings by taking the 10,000 (number of proposed new Police Officers) by the average salary of £30,000 per annum. Which in itself gives the figure of £300million.
    What Labour has obviously failed to do is ‘cost’ all the other expenses into the policy itself that these new Police Officers would incur on the public budget.”

    C- on costing; D for failing to consult the police on whether this is the best or even a desirable use of extra police resources; Z for presentation.

  41. @Robert Newark
    bit of history: The stands alone position was forced on the country after the invasion of Poland (with whom we had a mutual defence treaty) prior to that there had been 6 years of appeasement under Baldwin and Chamberlain: it was the minority of Tories including Churchill in combination with the Labour opposition that changed the position, up until that point during the phoney war Lord Halifax was trying to get us out of the possibility of conflict. Things are never simple!

  42. @Somerjohn
    Indeed. Like, I suspect, most of the Brexiteers on here I can console myself that I’m old and well-off enough to be pretty confident that the unfolding catastrophe will have little effect on me personally.
    As for younger people who are financially and politically oppressed by my generation, the only one who seems to have a potential solution on this board is @Alan!

  43. @ guymonde
    @Somerjohn
    Indeed. Like, I suspect, most of the Brexiteers on here I can console myself that I’m old and well-off enough to be pretty confident that the unfolding catastrophe will have little effect on me personally.
    As for younger people who are financially and politically oppressed by my generation, the only one who seems to have a potential solution on this board is @Alan!

    Don’t be so sure: I am of the view that a no deal situation will prove incredibly damaging economically for a number of years, with the UK unable to meet its food needs without imports inflation will spiral out of control unless rationing is introduced, TM will never do this and therefore even the very well off will be at significant risk of an economy spiralling out of control.

  44. I agree that over 35 years the average pay of a police officer would be around 30,000, but the figures given were the extra cost in year 4. In that year the average for the police officers recruited over the 4 years would be around 22,500 a year.
    As the years go on obviously the paybill would go up, but I did not hear or give or even asked for the cost over the 35 plus years the police officers concerned would be employed.
    Certainly Abbott should be criticised for not having the figures but the figures now given seem to be about right.
    The bigger question is whether the promise of the extra police officers (that even when done will stil mean 10,000 less than 2010) will have an impact on voting.

  45. Bantams, & Neil A

    “If that is really true (re: trying to engineer a close UK election) then the EU’s understanding of UK voters is even poorer than the UK government’s understanding of the EU.”

    I think all they demonstrate every day is that the british voters were wise to vote as they did in the referendum. The sooner we leave the better. Of course what it really shows is how desperate they are for us to change our minds IMO. The EU bureaucrats give me a laugh most days at the moment.

  46. I concur with Anthony’s point that each side points out the failures of the other whilst ignoring their own.

    Labour’s sums on the Police are a bit weak, but no more so than, for instance, the Tories on Education spending.

    However it took a genius in Dianne Abbott to score such an impressive own goal on this topic!

    The problem is that this puts in serious doubt Corbyn’s judgement in terms of selecting his team – she is barely competent and yet appears to be a fixture in a highly sensitive role.

    Is it a case of loyalty and political alignment counting for more than competence? it wouldn’t be the first time for all parties, but it often comes back to bite you…

  47. CATMANJEFF

    “Someone who clearly expresses potential issues with their model is a good egg in my view.”

    Yes, nice to see the explanation and the realism.

  48. Danny

    ” They will also have helped May’s position if she announces she cannot proceed with Brexit.”

    I think the chances of that happening are much, much worse than Labour winning the GE with a majority of 400.

  49. WB
    Thanks for the history lesson, which I already knew and which was not the point of my post, which you have missed. The point I was alluding to was that, despite the disaster of the BEF (of which my father was part) in 1939/40 and the following Battle of Britain, when a far superior German Air Force was faced down and despite the blitz on London, Coventry, York and many other cities, the Germans found that they couldn’t not break the will of the British people.

    That it is the Germans who are trying the same tactic again is ironic. “You will do as we say, or you will suffer”. Ok, suffer economically this time, rather than physically but the sentiment is the same.

  50. Can anyone hazard a guess as to what might be Michael Portillo’s, ‘Moment of the Week’, on the , ‘This Week’, programme, on Thursday?

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