There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.


394 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 47, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. Interesting poll in the Evening Standard re Immigration amongst other things. I don’t have the tables but the top line information is here:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-will-not-hit-target-on-slashing-immigration-say-seven-voters-in-10-a3528181.html

  2. EXILEINYORKS
    @ AC
    The chart of VI published in the Daily Record includes 4.1% don’t knows – renormalizing for that would bring SNP VI to 41%.

    However, showing the chart with the DK included makes me suspicious that the data isn’t weighted by likelihood to vote.
    __________

    That’s true, it would bring the SNP up to 41% but also with the very high Green VI (8.4%) it could actually indicate stronger polling for the SNP than the poll suggests because the Greens aren’t standing in all of Scotlands 59 seats.

    My prediction for Scotland come June 8th is

    SNP 44% 48 seats (-8)
    Tory 26% 7 seats (+6)
    Labour 20% 1 seat (-)
    Lib/Dem 6% 3 seats (+2)

    I’ve not put the numbers into Scotland votes website. It’s based on my own prediction where I think the SNP will lose seats. The Lib\Dems are polling really poorly in Scotland but they will probably pick up East Dumbartonshire and Edinburgh West via tactical voting.

    48 seats for the SNP would still be an astonishing result and 7 more than what Labour had going into 2015 and remember when Labour held 41 seats in Scotland, the Tories and the media called Scotland a “Labour fiefdom”..Will be interesting to read the spin if the SNP win less than what they have now but more than what Labour held.

  3. @Guymonde – that JLR investment decision has been coming for a while. After the Brexit vote they were reported to be recruiting design people for an eastern EU base, offering UK workers relocation packages.

  4. This must surely put a huge dent into the Lib/Dems local election prospects.

    Mike Smithson? @MSmithsonPB 5m5 minutes ago
    More
    Mike Smithson Retweeted Steve Fisher
    I’ve learned from experience never to doubt @StephenDFisher and he’s predicting LD net LOSSES on Thursday.Mike Smithson added,
    Steve Fisher @StephenDFisher
    My English local elections seats forecast from polls
    Con +430
    Lab -315
    LD -30
    ……..

    Another interesting bit of news flying around twitter is the CPS report which will conclude before polling day.

    Mike Smithson? @MSmithsonPB 2h2 hours ago
    More
    Mark Pack on the major event that could yet derail this election http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/02/mark-pack-on-the-major-event-that-could-yet-derail-this-election/

    and finally…

    Mike Smithson? @MSmithsonPB Apr 30
    More
    New polling suggests that CON London strongholds could be vulnerable to Stop Brexit candidates http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/30/new-polling-suggests-that-con-london-strongholds-could-be-vulnerable-to-stop-brexit-candidates/ … via @MSmithsonPB

    At long last, this election is looking exciting. :-)

  5. Two things really bother me about the D. Abbot saga.

    1) Diane Abbot has stated that the policy is fully costed at £300million (after having said it was £300,000 and then £80million, no doubt she had the figure shouted at her repeatedly by Labour Central Office until she was able to remember it, finally). She then explains this as taking the average wage of a police officer (she says is £30,000 p.a.) and multiplying it by 10,000.

    Right my understanding is that £30,000 x 10,000 does equal the stated £300,000,000. Finally a tick on her homework for D. Abbot.

    However;

    – Where is the figures are the costs for administration of employing 10,000 new officers?
    – Where are the training costs for all these 10,000 new officers?
    – Where are the Employer Pension Contributions for these 10,000 new officers?
    – Where are the National Insurance costs for the 10,000 officers?

    The list could just go on and on, but I think it suffice to say that this ‘policy’ has not been accurately ‘costed’ at all.

    2) Th other problem I have with the Diane Abbot saga is that someone who does not even understand simple mathematics and doesn’t even realise just how stupid her answers were to the costs of this proposed policy actually gets to vote on such things as National budgets!

    And to think she is Shadow Home Secretary, the ‘shadow’ of one of the most senior and important roles in any Government, well………..

  6. Peter Cairns,
    ” this is symptomatic of Labours current lack of professionalism.

    Corbyn and those around him, in rejecting “New Labour” in it’s entirety seem to have decided that they don’t need any of that presentational stuff just fire in their bellies.”

    I agree they have a lack of professionalism, but I dont think it deliberate. I have watched the Abbott and Portillo show onTV for years, and Abbott has always been far less the professional politician good at presentation or mustering a sharp argument. The rise of Corbyn has meant they have had to do the best they can after the professional showmen refused to cooperate.

    Guymonde,
    “Not sure if you’ve spotted this but Jaguar Land Rover have just committeed £1Bn to build a new factory in Slovakia.
    And £100M for Birmingham.”

    Thats quite funny really. Its all become a bit of a farce. Something else funny I heard at lunchtime was the BBC finding a police spokesman who said the police did not need any more police officers, what with different sorts of crime nowadays.

  7. Just seen the latest guardian poll , tories 19 points ahead down just one labour up one on 28 , lib dems down two !!!. On which party has performed best in the campaign so far the tories are the only party with a plus rating , just maybe Theresa is on to something with her underwhelming strategy .

  8. Agreed. We cannot have a customs border within the island of Ireland, but why allow NI to thus stay in the single market and not Scotland? A customs border at Hadrians Wall would please both nations which voted remain – and would have historical precedence.. Although admittedly a very very long time ago! LOL

  9. Latest poll suggests that TM presidential style is working. Still expect to see Tories really go for JC and Abott especially if polls tighten in any real way after Council elections.

  10. THE OTHER HOWARD…..It doesn’t take more than a minute on YouTube to find a drunken Juncker carrying out his duties with hilarious results, my thoughts are, that since he commences imbibing whatever his tipple of choice is, when he arrives at work in the morning, by the time he met May he would be just about coherent , viewing the many YouTube videos of him in his cups is a joy. ;-)

  11. Eire

    Eire has a lot to lose in Brexit. It only joined because the uk did. It now bravely sees itself surviving outside but is that long term feasible?:

    a. It is geographically isolated, It is and never has been a continental power or attuned to them;
    b. Politically it can just about survive without UK cover in the EU but if the EU moves to more economic and political centralisation it may feel more and more powerless and irrelevant
    c.In any eU deal on immigration voting rights are bound to be an issue and reciprocity the key.Irish citizens have the right to vote in UK general elections whreas UK citizens do not have the same right in Eire. The UK may have to abolish that right for those not already here.
    d. The Irish Economy depends on the UK, Whether there is an internal border or an external border tariffs are a possiblity between Eire and the UK. Combine this with free trade agreements with America, Canada New Zealand etc and Irish Agriculture is going to be squeezed badly
    e. Ireland wants and needs tariff free trading with the uK. If it does not get it then it will be Eire and not the uK that will suffer. The EU cannot grant this while imposing tariffs elsewhere or Eire will become a manufacturing/industrial base magnet to the detriment of other members ie in the EU but with tariff free trading with the 5th largest economy in the world

    f. By 2030 Eire will be part of the sterling zone….IMHO

  12. @ Tony Dean

    I’ve been thinking about NI, why not leave open borders as they are and check outgoings more intensely at the airports, ferries etc? Illegal immigrants are much more likely to want to come to the mainland rather than stay in Ulster.

  13. @AllanChristie: a pure Brexit candidate might do well, but it is a hypothetical as any such candidate will come with political baggage unless of the Martin Bell variety. If such a party were formed… if it could find neutral but committed credible candidates… and how far can it be rolled out before falling into an implicit alliance with other parties.

    It does suggest there are biddable Tory Remainers, who would defect in an ideal world. But it would probably turn out to be a LibDem-Green front, which might ruin things.

  14. @Croy “The list could just go on and on” For example
    + London weighting £2373 + other regional allowances, + motor vehicle allowances and mileage allowances, + equipment costs ….

  15. In Europe, there is a huge and ongoing shift eastwards in car production which has nothing to do with being in or out of the EU. Since 2011, Volkswagon has assembled all cars below the Golf class outside of Germany . Audi have built the world’s largest engine factory in Romania.

  16. just seen 19 point tory lead in guardian icm poll

  17. @Peter Cairns “Other than “Ah but we’re British” why do you think this is going to end differently?”
    Because Greece is still in the EU, while in 2019 we are not.

  18. Paul H-J & Peter Cairns SNP.
    You shouldn’t take my comments about Juncker too seriously, I was actually joking in part although clearly he is a liability to the EU as some of the leaders have acknowledged in the past. However I do think that he does provide helpful comments to the Tories and indeed UKIP and personally I find him hilarious.

    Peter
    The UK is not Greece, if both sides adopt a sensible approach the parting of the ways could be reasonably amicable. Since I believe that May like myself wants to leave in the fullest sense because IMO she believes that’s what the people voted for, we obviously will not have a particularly favourable trade deal. As you know I believe we will more than make up for that elsewhere once we have left. Don’t forget that the EU’s share of World Trade is falling quite rapidly and is likely to be no more than 10% by 205on the latest projections.
    Will both sides adopt a sensible approach? I have my doubts. Who will the voters blame if it goes badly? Almost certainly the EU IMO.

  19. I see that Vauxhall diesels are now the most polluting European produced cars, complete with their, ‘ cheating ‘ emission control software. Surely, with the track record of fraudulent claims by the German car industry as a whole, it is time we examined, in detail, each car as it arrives from Germany, to verify the integrity of its operational claims.
    Our friends in France used a Customs point in Bordeaux to examine Japanese VCR’s as they entered the Country, with one officer assigned to the task.
    I know a German car enthusiast who would be more than happy to examine every Beemer, Merc., Audi, Porsche, etc., as they arrived here, with practice I would imagine he could handle 3 or 4 a day, on a 5 day week. ;-)

  20. Marco Flynn and S Thomas

    If you look at Anthony’s write up in this topic, the new ICM/Guardian figures are rather close to the figures in that.

  21. Guardian ICM details:-

    Cons 47
    Lab 28
    LD 8
    UKIP 8
    GRN 4

    Tory lead 19%

    Best Campaign
    May 41/22 +19
    Corbyn 21/40 -19

  22. Ken

    Yes, the guy is a real laugh, I’ll take your tip and look at the YouTube clips.

    Cheers.

  23. Peter Cairns SNP

    Sorry missed a zero that should read …………….no more than 10% by 2050.

  24. TOH,

    the EU share of world trade is falling because of the rise of India and China, both of which sell more to us than we do to them.

    I think your going to find that leaving the EU where we have a say in setting the rules and people stick by them to doing deals in Asia where they change the rules to suit themselves isn’t going to be the sunlit uplands you expect.

    We both think these people will be queuing up to do business with us, but I think as they line up and look at us they’ll be thinking… Raw Meat!

    Beyond the EU there are really two types of Country.
    One is prosperous and can already afford and buy what we make, can get it from elsewhere or make it themselves: Australia, Canada the US.

    Developing ones, who can’t make it themselves or buy it from us because they can’t afford it, so they get it from China and India who can offer far better deals than us.

    As far as I am concerned there is absolutely no evidence of any untapped market just waiting for us to turn up with our goodies or that we can get better or offer trade terms than the EU for top end products or undercut India or China.

    Peter.

  25. Peter Cairns – “Other than “Ah but we’re British” why do you think this is going to end differently?”

    Net recipient countries behave very differently from net donor countries.

    Our trade with the EU has been dropping steadily since 2008 and our net contribution has been rising, The EU could pick a fight with us and we’d then flounce out – but they then have to work out how to replace the money we send.

    The hold that the EU had over Greece was that the ECB could withhold lender of last resort rights for the Greek banks and turn their economy into a barter system, and also withhold loans, so that they simply couldn’t operate (as they couldn’t raise the money from the markets either),

    What is the EU going to say to us? “We’re going to teach you a lesson by not taking any more money from you and putting up the contributions from Germany, France and Netherlands, so there”.

    We’d just laugh, and the fear of that scenario is why they’re doing the “we insist you put £60bn into our begging bowls before we talk trade” routine.

    Also, it is now 10 months since the referendum – no doubt it came as a shock to many businesses, but they have now had time to prepare. Many have been dusting off the WTO’s rules of origin guidance and have twigged that they need to source more suppliers in the UK to meet the criteria (which also has the added benefit of reducing their currency risk). There is a lot of adjustment going on beneath the surface. The more the EU plays hardball, the more likely businesses will hurry their adjustments, which means that by the time we walk we will have disentagled our economy from the Europeans.

  26. I notice the Guardian and Osborne in the Evening Standard taking the mick out of TM’s campaign.

    Looking at the ICM polling on the campaign so far, I suspect she is the one laughing.

  27. @S Thomas

    Regarding Ireland, the deal that Michael Collins agreed with David Lloyd George went through both houses of Parliament and received Royal Assent in 1921, and has never been repealed. So all it would take to revive it is a referendum on the Irish side.

    But would they want to do it? I think No, as they are very proud. The only scenario where they would rejoin the kingdom is if on the anniverssary of Michael Collins death, there was a reappraisal, and they did it <ifor him.

  28. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    I totally disagree with your last post, but i suspect that’s no surprise.

  29. The LD’s must be worried by the trend in the ICM polls since 18th April they have dropped steadily from 11% to 8% in the latest poll. Don’t seem to be making progress nationally, they must be hoping their targeting is going better.

    The next YouGov will be fascinating is their a divergence between YouGov and ICM and will it get bigger?

  30. CANDY…….The last para. of your 5-18pm post, very elegantly put. Now don flak jacket and hard hat ! ;-)

  31. @TOH – “I notice the Guardian and Osborne in the Evening Standard taking the mick out of TM’s campaign.”

    That will only help Mrs May. Her entire popularity is based on the sacking of Osborne, and the more he pops up the more people are reminded of it.

    Cameron was liked, but Osborne was loathed across the spectrum.

    (Mrs May is lucky in her opponents – the more Blair pops up, the more determined the kippers become to switch to Tory. And the more poor Dianne pops up the more determined remainer tories are to stick with the conservatives).

  32. TOH
    Interesting that your daughter is in Coventry South. That’s where 2 of my children live. Another lives in Coventry northwest. They are on a 3 line whip to vote (from me) as they are likely seats which will turn blue at the GE. Robinson and Cunningham are in for early retirement I think. In fact it only requires ukip voters to vote Tory to do it.

    Getting pretty fed up with the way the uk media repeats parrot fashion, without any question, the nonsense coming out of Brussels about the dinner with May, by people who were not even at the dinner. The BBC & the Times in particular are guilty of this. I cannot believe that the EU really is as stupid as it is painting itself. It seems that their idea of negotiation is, “these are our red lines, accept them”. Known as the FIFO principle. (Fit In or F*** Off) it is not really conducive to sensible negotiations or ongoing harmonious relations and the EU seems to be going out of its way to be as belligerent as possible. Well TM says she is going to be a ‘bloody difficult woman’ and I expect her to respond in like kind, including threatening to withdraw co operation on issues such as security and intelligence and banking where they depend on the uk. I hope her stance will be, ‘well I would prefer friendly negotiation but if you want hardball, then you can have hardball.’

    A small part of me would even like to see Le Pen elected just so these people could experience reality.

  33. CANDY

    “The more the EU plays hardball, the more likely businesses will hurry their adjustments, which means that by the time we walk we will have disentagled our economy from the Europeans.”

    Talking to old friends who still have connections with industry this appears to be happening in many areas of activity.,

  34. @ Bantams

    Yes, that would deal with any migration problems but I was thinking more about goods. If we don’t have free trade with the EU an unregulated open border is not a runner. So, if you have to have a border somewhere better to allow NI (and perhaps Scotland) remain in a single market area with Eire & the rest of the EU. To stop goods that have not had the appropriate tariff levied, there has to be a customs border somewhere!

  35. Agree re: Osborne, fancied himself as PM and now throwing the toys out of the pram.

    If the current “leaks” are attempts by the Eurocrats to influence the UK election, then they are foolish. They must regret not giving Cameron a few more concessions now. Let them string themselves up in their bureaucracy and process.

  36. MARCO FLYNN.
    Good Afternoon to you from Bournemouth East where I think that the Tories look likely to retain; Tobias Ellwood is the PPC, so his personal vote will count, IMO.
    In terms of election tactics I think the Tories will wait to see if Labour make any mistakes. This repeats what they did in 1959, 1983, 1987 and in 1992.
    There are also the things that Corbyn and his allies said and did in their younger days when they really did not expect to be on the Front Bench. Politics is a ‘rough old trade’ as John Major used to say and the next five weeks will show that is true.

    The phrase ‘bloody difficult woman’ contra the ‘Eurocrats’ will not hurt the Tories in the sight of the ‘Brexit Labour people, IMO.

  37. TOH,

    “I totally disagree with your last post, but i suspect that’s no surprise.”

    Even less surprising is that as ever you ducked out of backing up your claim with facts.

    if your so sure their are big new markets out there where people with cash would rather by Jaguars than Mercs or where they would pay double for jeans made in Sheffield not Shanghai lets here where it is.

    But you can’t because all you have is blind faith, you really only have “Ah but we’re British!”

    Peter.

  38. @S Thomas,
    You write: “Irish citizens have the right to vote in UK general elections whreas UK citizens do not have the same right in Eire.”

    You are mistaken. UK citizens DO have voting rights in Irish general elections. The only Irish election they can’t vote in is the presidential election (which has no UK equivalent); they also can’t vote in Irish referendums.

  39. Candy [re T. May]

    ” Her entire popularity is based on the sacking of Osborne.”

    A bit of an exaggeration surely??

  40. RP

    then i stand corrected. Can Irish citizens vote in UK referenda?

  41. @ RP. Is it also true that if I wanted to hold an Irish passport all I would need is an address in Ireland?

  42. THE OTHER HOWARD

    Thanks for your post from earlier in the afternoon, and interesting to hear about your son, his voting intentions and why. It probably confirms that whatever else arrives on the table during the election campaign, Brexit will dominate and, as you say in a later post, the hostile comments of the EU leaders will likely add votes to the Conservatives (or at least solidify the current VI).

    My own son – an economics student – voted to leave (worse he supports a different football team – where did I go wrong?), but basically we are agreed that the government should be given a mandate to get on with the job. My experience of speaking to others (on either side) has been that their votes were cast after giving it a good deal of thought and cutting through the extremes that came from both sides during the campaign.

  43. PETER CAIRNS ( SNP )…..Jaguar Landrover growth in China, USA, and Europe, in percentage terms, is easily outstripping Mercedes, even though JLR is a premium product Company, and Merc are now the UBER vehicle of choice at the mass market end, thanks to massive discounting. Personally, a Jag would be my preferred Uber, but they’re still a bit too upmarket for fleet managers, whereas I wouldn’t buy a Merc since it’s such a nuisance being hailed constantly by drunken EU bureaucrats on their way home from really important meetings. ;-)

  44. @S Thomas,
    Yes, at least in terms of the brexit referendum (though the fact that the franchise for that referendum was debated in Parliament may indicate there is not yet a generally agreed rule): the franchise was identical to that for a UK general election, so Irish and Commonwealth citizens were enfranchised. (Of course, Irish referendums are usually on binding constitutional amendments, a bit different from the consultative/advisory referendums we have in the UK.)

  45. I do not agree with Danny that Mrs May expected what she said to be leaked. Why,then, would she ask for the negotiations to be kept confidential? I do not expect the Conservative manifesto to say more than the White Paper. There is a strong desire in government, it seems to me, to prevent people of the UK from learning anything about Brexit negotiations.

    We know something of how it will end. After Brexit the UK will be a “third country”. It can choose to follow Norway, Switzerland or neither. Earlier, it looked like neither. That seems to me to still be the case. A bespoke deal is what is wanted. My guess the UK will be treated like any other third country.

    As to Ireland this might be how it goes.

    http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/brexit-and-island-ireland

  46. It is interesting from the ICM/Guardian poll just how many people are MORE likely to want to vote Labour if they are CERTAIN that Jeremy Corbyn will NOT be PM! Clearly their heart is to vote Labour, but even they cannot bear the idea of JC winning.

  47. No wonder Nick Clegg was in such a foul mood this morning. The ineptitude of the EU in the deliberate leaking of comments insulting the British Prime minister defies belief. Old Nick sees the prospect of reconciling the EU to Britain becoming ever more remote and the Liberal strategy of leading the Remain insurgency ebbs away as remainers are made to look more like collaborators then resistance fighters. The fact that they say that Britain is only one state against 27;the fact that they say we have no option but to agree to their negotiating stance;the fact that they say we are led by a delusional woman from another galaxy reminds us of our history.

    There was a time in living memory that these same states instead of baying for british blood were glad of its sacrifice; there was a time when we were outnumbered when logic screamed to a different course when we were grateful for “a bloody difficult” leader.
    They misjudge our national temprament. We,i suspect,are never happier than being outnumbered and being up against it and i suspect that as Old Nick Clegg sat there this morning he knew this more than anyone else.

  48. David West

    Thanks for sharing your own and your son’s experience. They seem to be very much like my own.

  49. So with the latest poll still showing a healthy lead for TM it would appear the mini bump in the road is over.

    More good news for the Tories is that they will be able to match the Labour figure of 10,000 extra police officers as they managed to find £42 down the back of the Downing Street sofa.

  50. @Tony Dean,
    No, not true. If you were born in NI before 2005 you are eligible for Irish citizenship. You can also be eligible through descent, or you can move to the Republic of Ireland for five years and become naturalised. So if you merely bought a house there that would not be enough. You would have to actually live there (for five out of the nine years prior to your application); otherwise your application might be considered fraudulent.

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