There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.


394 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 47, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 8”

1 3 4 5 6 7 8
  1. @ TOH

    Yes I’d understood that your view was very much on the ‘no Deal leads to sunlit uplands’ side.

    But given that you and many others think that way, isn’t it a bit rich to complain about the EU’s stance which may lead to exactly that outcome?

  2. EXILEINYORKS

    I would normally agree with you but there is a high % of people saying they would vote Green 8.4% and I’m assuming most of them would vote for independence but one big caveat in the poll is the questioning.

    “Poll shows most Scots would prefer independence in Europe rather than face Tory rule in UK after Brexit”
    ….

  3. James E.

    I guess it’ll be a question of the degree of sunniness that the uplands experiences.

    “Things will be great, but they could have been greaterer if the dastardly EU has given us what we wanted as well.”

    It remains to be seen how many millichurchills of sunniness the UK experiences.

  4. Seems quite a lot of partisan posts recently – was under he impression this site was for polls and not which policies/tactics are right… quite off putting already

  5. @ AC

    The chart of VI published in the Daily Record includes 4.1% don’t knows – renormalizing for that would bring SNP VI to 41%.

    However, showing the chart with the DK included makes me suspicious that the data isn’t weighted by likelihood to vote.

  6. croy – hard to tell because an election has just been dropped on us! Here’s what we know

    YouGov are doing two polls a week, one for the Sunday Times (on Sat night/Sun mornings), one midweek for the Times.
    ICM are doing a weekly poll for the Guardian which is at the start of each week. They’ve also done polls the last two Sundays, but given they were for different clients (ITV and the Sun) I assume they were ad hoc
    Opinium appear to be doing a poll every Sunday for the Observer.

    ORB have done a couple for the Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph, but not clear how regular that will be
    Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard, but there’s no info on how frequent their polls are going to be during the campaign.
    ComRes normally poll for the Indy or Sunday Mirror – given they didn’t have one yesterday, I assume they aren’t doing it every week.
    Survation said they were doing a regular poll for “broadcast”, so are presumably doing something for a TV channel
    Panelbase and TNS/Kantar seem to be doing stuff for themselves, no sign of a timeframe
    GfK will be doing at least one poll… but no more info than that yet

  7. Those sunny uplands …

    It is one of those ethical subjects the ancient Greeks loved so much.

    The generations that actually make the decision won’t bear the cost of it, yet they have the responsibility to do it. Those generations that will suffer or enjoy the future have largely ignored the presence of the question, or could not participate. So the responsibilities and consequences are more blurred.

    It is in fact one of those invalid dichotomies, yet there is no political process to resolve it. So, the dichotomy will stay with us.

    One of the things that fascinates (and makes me switch off) in the Brexit debate is that it reminds me (by no means by all participants and all opinions) of the debates within and amongst Trotskyist organisations.

  8. ROGERH

    @”If you’re operating in a single market then your employment laws are a legitimate concern for your partners.”

    The EU has not established a functioning Single Market yet.
    most of of its GDP is in Services, in which there is still national protections of all sorts.

    Services account for 71% of EU GDP and two-thirds of employment. Yet, only 20% of the services in the EU are provided across borders, accounting for just 5% of EU GDP compared with 17% for manufactured goods. (Source: European Commission, services package, 2012)

    75% of trade in services concerns the supply to other businesses (B2B), hence their importance for the overall competitiveness of the EU economy. (Source: European Commission)

    National governments must commit to ensuring more ambitious implementation and stronger enforcement of the services directive, which alone can bring additional gains up to 1.8% of EU GDP. (Source: European Commission, services package, 2012)

  9. NEILJ

    Thank you.
    I think the polls are broadly correct and the reason is that Theresa May’s basic pitch and message is ‘Trust me…totally’.
    So far around 40% to 50% in England and Wales seem to buy that message/pitch.
    Some of these are from Ukip 2015 and some from Labour 2015
    Door to door, in the pub, leafletting canvassing in different parts of the UK seem to support this as of today.
    I do not have info on inner and outer London which was hardcore Remain land in 2016 so it may be out of step.
    Outside London the Libdem pitch of ‘Remain vote is LibDem box on the ballot’ seems to have only limited impact as of this weekend.
    So if over the campaign the ‘Trust me…Totally’ pitch falters, then VI can change and polls at each stage stll be accurate.
    If the Remainers decide that the LibDem pitch is credible (and not just a wasted protest vote) then the LibDem vote can potentially rise to new levels. So far it seems (outside of London) a failed pitch. Farron might be better to focus on Tory cuts, schools and hospitals, stop the war (any war).
    Ukip with a few very good weeks could get back to 12% which was 2015 election vote. But no evidence so far that the 2017 campaign is even a third cousin of the 2014, 2015 and 2016 Ukip resourced campaigns. At the moment polls look accurate at 6-9%.
    I think the polls have it right this time but VI is potentially much more volatile than 2015.
    I still think turnout is the thing to poll on. If 2015 level, then at the moment the voters will have voted/trusted Theresa May into bigger majority with a freehand on Brexit and tax and NHS and schools and military.
    If polls are accurate and vote today they will have mostly ignored everything Corbyn, Farron and Nuttall said in the campaign.
    That is if they voted today.
    If LibDems get some dreadful polls, consistently below Ukip then protest vote might go to Ukip.
    Labour core vote must be staggeringly strong to hold up above 25% and even 30% and withstand Labour MPs effectively campaigning against their own leader, and leader and party undermining each other on policy statements.
    If they had a ‘trusted’ leader, then the polls might be reversed. The voters seem to be looking for someone to trust broadbrush and to be spared the need to actively microscope the policy details.
    The main governing parties seem to have each inherited a reputation for having a legacy ideology but the present candidates are mostly incapable of expressing it. Maybe they do not understand it.
    The public have pragmatic concerns (immigration, zero hour contracts, classroom sizes, waiting time for GP, Accident and Emergency, surgery, crime and reduced police levels, tax and NI levels etc) but are struggling to find a party which clearly and consistently addresses their menu.
    As of this weekend, the Trust Theresa option seems to be wining by a big margin via polls, doorstep, anecdote, pub, etc
    Unless any of you know different…in which case I will read with interest.

  10. JAMES E

    “Yes I’d understood that your view was very much on the ‘no Deal leads to sunlit uplands’ side.”

    You clearly have not read my posts. I actually said no deal will mean economic pain for both the UK and the EU. However I agree that it is my belief that the UK will be better off in the long if we are outside the EU with or without a deal.

    I am not actually complaining about the EU stance it is actually what I expected, in the same way I expected May to say no money without a deal. These are just opening positions.

    Please don’t misrepresent my views.

  11. ANTHONY WELLS

    Thanks for listing the polls and timing of polls. Very helpful.

  12. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Any comments on the panel base figures I raised with you at 5.50?

  13. @Anthony Wells

    Thank you. :)

    I guess this is early on enough in the campaign whereby a clearer picture of polling plans of the papers and TV broadcasters will become available over th next week or two. But now at least I know what to look out for and when(ish).

    Again, thank you.

  14. One element of the EU negotiating position that I don’t really understand is the “No hard border with Ireland, or we won’t negotiate a trade deal with you”.

    It seems to me that the only way that we are going to avoid a hard border with Ireland is precisely by agreeing to a trade deal. The common travel area isn’t going to change. The people of the island of Ireland will still be able to move their persons across the border without restriction. The big question is, and has always been, what about goods? If there is no free trade agreement, surely the EU itself will want a border, in order to apply tariffs to UK imports into the Republic (and therefore the EU)?

    Exactly what agreement can the UK and EU come to, before trade talks have even begun, on the status of goods crossing the border?

  15. I am still pondering the calling of this election. In an earlier post i considered all the reasons, as i saw them, for the TM Volte Face,
    I wonder whether i gave sufficient weight to her fear that by 2019 a new political movement of left of centre might have emerged led by the comeback kid Tony Blair. A sort of Internet party. Remain in direction.TB has seen En Marche prosper in france and our very own UKIP. He would have had the financial support and a considerable number rof labour and tory members willing to build momentum (no pun) by resigning their seats sequentially.Backed by a London Newspaper and 4 former prime ministers and with brexit uncertainty at its height it might have worked.
    Although TB and myself do not politically see eye to eye I recognise that he is a brilliant performer and probably commands more influence with voters than social media allows. I think he would have beaten in 2010.

    That is now ifs and maybe since the die will be well and truly cast by 2022. IMHO this was fear of TM and perhaps a greater one than has been so far taken into account

  16. “beaten Cameron in 2010”

  17. S Thomas
    “Backed by a London Newspaper and 4 former prime ministers…”

    Presumably you mean Blair, Brown, Cameron and Major? Do you seriously think they could work together??

  18. Pete B

    yes.

  19. I presume that the various manifestos will be published soon. Though only a tiny minority will read the details, the main points will get publicised by the media. It will be interesting to see whether VI is affected. I suspect not much. Most of those likely to vote will already have pretty much decided which way they’ll go.

    Unlike Jonathan Stuart-Brown and others I think the overriding issue in this campaign is that the electorate just want to give May a mandate to get on with Brexit, and suffer or enjoy whatever else the Tories do according to their inclinations.

  20. I have suggested for several months that Brexit was nothing like as salient an issue in pure electoral terms as the commentariat and political anoraks would care to believe. Whilst I was contemplating an election much further down the line in 2019 or 2020 when making my comments, I do suspect that the failure of the LibDems to make progress since the election announcement tends to bear out my earlier judgement in that Remainers are not flocking to their banner. Already other issues are coming to the fore – Taxation – Education – NHS – and if this continues over the coming five weeks , I expect that the effect will be to detach many of the Labour Leavers from their present inclination to Vote Tory.

  21. @PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    That may be true at this point but the actual negotiations are yet to begin and while the current leaders of the 27 may all currently align at the moment once their electorates and Business start to exert pressure when they realise their market for goods may disappear that is when the cracks will show.

    This is especially true for the Germans, while they compete with us their car exports are massive comparatively, 1 in 7 cars made in germany are sold here and Businesses operate on very small margins and large volume so losing that could easy spell big trouble for all the German Manufacturers. However much the German elite may like the EU, the average man isn’t going to risk his job just to be vengeful to UK.

  22. Neil – there has been talk of electronic customs control on good via some clever technology?

  23. Jim Jam

    Sure, it’ll be yet another “Government IT System” which will work perfectly, on time and on budget as all “Government IT Systems” do without fail.

    I’m sure it’ll present wonderful opportunities….

    for those developing the systems (and those redeveloping the systems which aren’t fit for purpose and those re-re…)

  24. GRAHAM
    I think you would be right on Labour 2010 and 2015 returning to Labour from Conservative over NHS, schools, pensions if there was:
    a) aggressive media scrutiny of Prime Minister plans and new on the record promises or absence of pledges and abundance of fudge;
    b) aggressive soundbyte allegations and scrutiny of Prime Minister by Labour leader and frontbench;
    c) effective poster and online campaign;
    d) a set of Labour candidates who wanted to win rather than ditch Corbyn because in the main they see a Corbyn victory as the worst possible outcome;
    e) total pressure put on PM to have post 2010 and 2015 expected leadership debate ideally with 6 other candidates (who will all attack the clear favourite).
    As it is I see no evidence of any of the above and if this remains the case, May can rely on the present polls to hold up and be reflected on polling day.
    A wild card gamechanger would be Ukip coming out for capital punishment, doubling the police, building prisons in the Falklands for most serious offenders. They have gone for ban the burkha and end BBC Licence fee so a series of attempts at a hole in one could emerge if the polls stay below 10%.
    Other than that a nuclear exchange with North Korea, Argentina invading Falklands, a bank or supermarket going bust or similar massive news event are the only game changers I see outside of the political party campaigns.
    The polls are, IMHO and research among different party activists, broadly right if election were held this week.
    Local authority and Mayor elections will not reflect GE VI polls. Different universe.

  25. The Other Howard,
    “As I posted to RAF, all they show is that Juncker and co have no idea of the UK’s position. They still think we will be a pushover which is why I posted what I did earlier.”

    No. The best that you could argue is that both sides consider the other’s position to be unsustainable. Which is indeed a recipe for complete failure. The fact two sides disagree doesnt in itself tell us very much about which is correct.

    Neil Wilson,
    “So subject to guarantees there can be no liability on the UK when it leaves – because the UK is not the contracting party.”
    This might be a question of formal contractual liability, but in reality the Uk contributing to schemes it voted for while a member is simply one condition of any new deal. This is about what the Uk needs to get in a future relationship with the EU, and what it will give in return.

    The EU has chosen to structure negotiations by dealing with payments for past arrangements first. This strikes me as a belief on their part that the UK cannot refuse. However, while this is being protrayed as malice on their part, it is no different to how they would treat China in negotiations. Its their job to get a good deal for the EU and no longer

  26. oops, lost a bit off the end,

    ….no longer their job to try to help the UK.

  27. TOH

    Just catching up with the site. Any question unrelated to matters like “How do I fit our new Belfast sink. into the existing space, and run the plumbing?” are too much for my brain to cope with at the moment.

    Oh, and last year’s tomato blight seems to have spread to this year’s early potatoes, so I have a very negative view of the world at this moment!

  28. @Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    “As it is I see no evidence of any of the above and if this remains the case, May can rely on the present polls to hold up and be reflected on polling day.”

    I tend to agree. However, it feels to me that the election is hardly underway yet. I’ve yet to see a poster, any advertising stickers, and not been hassled by any canvassers. And I live in a constituency that’s quite likely to change hands, so ought to be a target. I guess I’ve never experienced a genuine ‘snap’ election before. Going to the country a year early, as has happened several times, is more predictable and preparations more advanced.

  29. @JS-B
    I agree with much of that but I’m afraid d) is Horlicks. Every Labour candidate wants to win, bar none. Every Labour candidate (perhaps bar one or two) sees a Tory landslide as the worst possible outcome.
    To the extent they don’t support Corbyn it is because they don’t think he can win!

  30. @Colin

    “only 20% of the services in the EU are provided across borders”

    Perhaps because the majority of services are in person? I don’t know about you, but I would tend to go round the corner for a haircut.

  31. Croy,
    “Could I ask other posters on this site if there exists a running timetable of sorts concerning when pollsters will or are likely to post poll results? (Sorry for the ‘newbeish’ question, hope it is OK to ask it.)”
    Nope, sorry. though polls have been coming thick and fast of late. This page has turned into an amazing debate of the forthcoming negotiations, which I assume means the parties are very nervous of anyone discussing polls just at the moment.

  32. @Pete B: “Unlike Jonathan Stuart-Brown and others I think the overriding issue in this campaign is that the electorate just want to give May a mandate to get on with Brexit, and suffer or enjoy whatever else the Tories do according to their inclinations.”

    The clever – and most ethical – approach would be for the Tories to promise an election on its due date in 2020 (or earlier) if all is done and dusted. Any further radical change requires a mandate in an election based on domestic policy.

    I would be sorry to see Grammar schools bumped back – but the government can only fight so many battles.

  33. AR558,
    ” the Germans have the most to lose especially in terms of exports (Cars Especially).”

    I fear I don’t follow your logic. the Gemans have a reputation for quality and expensive cars. Note, they are already practiced at successfully selling expensive cars on reputation. I strongly suspect the luxury cars import market will be the least hit by Uk consumers ceasing to buy. Just as likely that UK manufacturers will suffer low demand.

  34. S Thomas,
    “i just wish i was doing deal with the posters on this site. Many are beaten before they start and only see the strenghts of the opposite side.”

    You make a good point, I for one do not see that the Uk has any leverage to persuade the EU to change its view. But this is not a case of being ‘beaten’ before I start. My view of the relative strengths of the two sides is entirely open to being changed if anyone can come up with some credible facts indicating the UK’s position is stronger than it looks.

    We are all onlookers on this, analyzing possible outcomes just the same as predicting numbers for the election results. I think the possible spread on the outcome of this election is still huge, though the most likely outcome is a respectable conservative win. However, the situation is masively unstable and will definitely change between now and the next election. The only question is when, and whether it might possibly happen before this election.

    Returning to negotiations, I don’t see what has changed in the relative positions for a couple of years, except that more detail has been explored. The EU’s position has been clear for a long time. They cannot change their position, so it is rather unlikely that they will.

    “we can see already that on the EU side the talks will be spun, leaked ,
    be without principle or honour, and be confusing and illogical.”

    Spun, did you say?

  35. @DANNY

    My point was that 1/7 of German Car Exports come to the UK and if punitive tariffs were imposed this would cause serious issues to those companies viability as Vehicle manufacturers operate on high volume low margin basis so even a 10% drop in sales has a large impact on profits and therefore jobs.

  36. “CHRIS
    Seems quite a lot of partisan posts recently – was under he impression this site was for polls and not which policies/tactics are right… quite off putting already”

    Completely agree.

    I made my first post here in years the other day. That post was pending publication for days, despite being a pure discussion of the poll results and where I thought they might be headed, without partisan cheerleading, and wondering whether others agreed with my premise. But while my post was caught up in moderation for days I would refresh the thread to find partisan posts which contained zero discussion of the actual polls going up seemingly without having to go through any moderation.

    Was a disappointing experience that has put me off commenting tbh. I’ve since gone back to purely lurking, skipping over the partisan posts in search of the genuinely insightful ones.

  37. DANNY

    “….no longer their job to try to help the UK.”

    That presupposes that the EU’s negotiators ever thought it was their job to help the UK. Given their past performance, most leavers would doubt that they ever negotiated except for the original EU6

  38. @ S Thomas

    ‘I wonder whether i gave sufficient weight to her fear that by 2019 a new political movement of left of centre might have emerged led by the comeback kid Tony Blair. ‘

    I have no idea if that is the case but it had already occurred to me that Blair and Mandelson have yet again been thwarted in their plans for SDP2 in 2019. (Mandelson was reportedly hopeful of a new centre party led by David Miliband, in coalition with the LDs).

    No doubt, they will develop a new plan, aided by Osborne in situ at the Standard. However, Labour MPs likely to have jumped on board in time for the 2020GE are now in the invidious position of having to declare support (however weakly) for a Labour gov’t led by the lefties.

  39. @JS-B ” the Trust Theresa option seems to be winning”

    Not too surprising. “Trust me” options are never just that, but always “Trust me rather than …. [Corbyn, Farron, Nuttall, Caroline Lucas, Nicola Sturgeon (who is limited to 59 MPs.)] I suspect even Blair would struggle.
    What is TM to be trusted with?
    1. Negotiating Brexit. All the others are seen as wanting to derail or dilute it, but the die is cast. TM might not want a completely clean Brexit, but she makes the right noises to be backed by those who do. We now need the best deal we can get – her phrase.
    2. Generally running the country. Policies however attractive don’t cut it if their presenter is not thought able to carry them out.
    I suspect TM is probably seen as much the best of a poor lot, rather than the best since records began. I also suspect that people might not turn out, or enough people be attracted to the Labour promises for their vote to hold up fairly well, restricting the Tory majority to say about 40, but that will be enough.
    There is also always the question of who would we get if the current PM had to resign? At least the Tories have shown they could find someone else.

  40. The problem for the UK in negotiations is that all 27 parliaments must pass the deal. So there can be no behind closed doors stitch up to help i.e. German car manufactures – because clearly the other parliaments won’t go for it. I am not sure if it is possible to do a deal in these circumstances and I think that possibly this lack of understanding is because UK has already concluded they will have to walk away. The only route to a deal is the softest Brexit with the longest transitional arrangement but I am not picking up any desire for that in the Tory ranks or in anything May has said.

    The manifesto will be interesting then we’ll see how much May will box herself in to be sure of keeping the UKIP vote. If the Tories have concluded no deal then I would expect many red lines in the manifesto to be sure of a kipper aided landslide.

  41. Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    I also suspect that Labour could make progress by seeking on a regular ongoing basis to label May as ‘having a compulsive aversion to telling the truth’. It would gain from creating a sense that nobody can believe a word that she utters – as evidenced by the calling the election despite so many denials of any intent to do so. The ammunition is there to be fired should they wish to do so.

  42. Cooper 2802

    It is good to agree with you.

  43. Couper2802

    Agreed, there will be a lot of reading between the lines (from all sides) in the Conservative manifesto.

  44. From Michael Crick

    Interesting that in Scotland none of Lab MPs who lost in 2015 standing again, except Ian Davidson who switched from Glasgow to Berwickshire

    Davidson is a Borderer, so going home to (politically) pass away?

  45. @A558

    Punitive tariffs are in effect a tax on domestic consumers. And as a member of the WTO the UK would have to place the same tariffs on all car imports. And the UK exports just under half of all our exports to the EU while the EU exports about 8% of it exports iirc to the UK.

  46. ROBIN

    :-)

    You think that 70 % of EU GDP derives from Hairdressing??

    ……………I suppose its possible…………in Italy ?

  47. @Colin
    It has always puzzled me that statistics lump ‘services’ together, when they increasingly comprise the vast majority of the economy and include everything from the barber (round the corner) McDonalds (round the corner) Tesco (round the corner) Barclays Bank (round the corner) to PWC and Goldman Sachs. Even my notional BMW is bought from Joe’s Garage (round the corner), fuelled and serviced at Fred’s auto shop (round the corner) and washed by Laszlo and Dimitry’s hand car wash (round the corner). I could have leased it from Deutsche Bank and insured it via Allianz but it’s probably easier to go to their local branch office.

  48. Cynosarges,
    ” most leavers would doubt that they ever negotiated except for the original EU6″
    This is unfortunately true but wholly wrong. The EU is the EU we made and UK governments over the years pushed to get. One of the current problems is a belief as you describe, and maybe it is why people believe we have nothing to lose by failing to negotiate.

    AR558
    The WTO trade terms mean we cannot impose punitive terms on one nation, so the terms we give Germany will be the same we offer everyone in the world. And broadly we seem to be setting out on a low tariff free trade path. So we could end up in a position where we face EU import taxes but have none of our own. That is a consequence of our membership of the WTO, not of the EU. If we werent still a WTO member, likely matters would suddenly become even worse.

  49. GUYMONDE

    I think some key sub groups of Services could be highlighted. It is a bit of a dustbin at present & not very informative-I agree.

  50. Couper2802,
    ” The only route to a deal is the softest Brexit with the longest transitional arrangement but I am not picking up any desire for that in the Tory ranks or in anything May has said.

    The manifesto will be interesting then we’ll see how much May will box herself in to be sure of keeping the UKIP vote. If the Tories have concluded no deal then I would expect many red lines in the manifesto to be sure of a kipper aided landslide.”

    There are a couple of other possibilities. One would be we cancel Brexit, which arguably comes under your softest Brexit. Another would be a wholesale EU reform, the Stanley Johnson option. This would be tricky and require considerable delay before implementation but might be posible. Macron might get on board.

    For what its worth, my prediction is the maximum of tory vagueness on negotiations unless they start losing support. I agree some definitive hard line statements might be indicative of an expectation of ‘no deal’, but they might also scare the centre ground waverers. This is still a process of trying to appeal to everyone and taking the hard line might still be a net vote loser. At this point many UKIPPers would probably consider they have nowhere else to go.

    Oldnat,
    ” none of Lab MPs who lost in 2015 standing again, except Ian Davidson who switched from Glasgow to Berwickshire”

    Is this evidence they are party insiders who have abandoned what they had thought were safe seats in search of better ones? Doesnt sound like they had much conviction.

1 3 4 5 6 7 8