There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.


394 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 47, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. SThomas

    Admirably non-partisan!

    Not voting Tory this time then?

  2. @Dave

    You have a funny way of doing business.

    In my experience building a business is about developing relationships and partnerships; you only end up referring to the contract if your relationship with your JV partner has broken down.

    We have issues with our business partners all the time – it’s the nature of the business we are in. 95%+ are resolved by working together to get a good solution; sometimes we have to give a bit more, sometimes our partner, more often both.

    It’s rare to find a partner that would rather refer to the contract when a problem arises rather than try to work together to fix it, and frankly when we do come across them they are equally rarely worth the trouble to work with.

    I guess your experience is different…

  3. Bigfatron

    In the real world the EU is intent on beating and humiliating the UK. This is not about trade to the EC and Germany. i am afraid, to some, we need to be destroyed like Greece.
    This may well come close to a battle for national survival. Then we shall have to see who does.. and who does not… rally to the colours

  4. COLIN: nothing strange about internationalists believing that national governments don’t always protect against the tyranny of the majority. Most people accept, to a greater or lesser extent, a degree of universal jurisdiction in some areas (crimes against humanity being an obvious if extreme example). For those who value workers’ rights and environmental protections the coordination of these at European level has been a source of reassurance. The Brexiteers, of course, weren’t very keen on parliamentary sovereignty when they though that parliament might vote against Brexit.

  5. MACTAVISH

    “It’s understandable because we’ve been in the EU for a relatively long period of time. Had we left the organisation in 1992 after Maastricht treaty was signed, it would have been far less painful.”

    I agree with you there.

  6. JO

    There is certainly a case for supra -national rules & laws in some instances.

    Environmental Regs are arguably in that category for obvious reasons.

    But if the Laws of Employment aren’t a matter for National Governments , I’m not sure what is.

    Is the “Tyranny of the Majority” a concept that applies to every losing side in an election-or just Left Wing parties?

  7. COLIN (the real one)

    Absolutely, some remainers live on a different planet and clearly have no idea how negotiations work.

  8. @S Thomas

    The way we will end up with a really nasty fight with the EU is to ignore the other side’s priorities, shout insults at them and attribute the worst possible motives to them

    We (along with the other European powers) tried that before World War one and it didn’t end well, but I had hoped we had learned since then.

    I suspect the only person who wants a ‘national battle for survival’ is yourself…

  9. TOH

    :-)

    Well-as I tried to explain-I think they probably do-but in this instance they so desperately want the UK side to fail that every EU utterance is to be seen as understandable & merely a response to UK naivety .

  10. Patrickbrian

    Actually i have a lot of time for JC believe it or not. I like conviction politicians and he is good on the stump.He enthuses his core and i do not think that given the cards that he has been dealt anybody could have played it differently.

    I hope that is not too partisan.:-)

  11. S Thomas, well at least Corbyn has the advantage of always being anti EU unlike May.

  12. PATRICKBRIAN

    “You, on the other hand, seem to hope there will not be deal. it’s quite a difference.”

    None of my posts suggest that please point to one that does so. All I have been saying is that the EU are taking a hard stance and so are we. I think May is prepared to compromise on some issues, (but not controlling borders and the role of the EC) including some payments for joint programs, the EU give no sign of being prepared to do so. Hence my view that no deal is likely.

    All i have ever wanted is for us to leave the EU in the fullest sense, hopefully amicably.

  13. COLIN: I don’t think tyranny of the majority has been an accurate descriptor in the UK for a very long time – tyranny of the minority more like!

  14. COLIN

    I actually think it is EU naivity. They cannot believe that one country can stand up to the “mighty” EU, which is why people like Juncker are so bemused. I think Merkel is also at fault. History should have taught her that the British do not like bullying tactics.

  15. There are a wee bit too many ad hominem comments.

  16. @ TOH

    Where the Downing Street meeting is concerned we’ve only heard one side of the story but it has highlighted a couple of things:

    a) It proves once and for all who is really running the EU when Juncker goes running straight to Nanny Merkel to tell on that nasty British woman who says she won’t pay for all his toys.

    b) There will be a running commentary from the Brussels side after every meeting so we better get our PR in tip top shape to deal with this.

  17. Bgfatron

    This is what i do not understand. The EU leak detailed “records” of the Downing street meeting together with comments that the British Prime Minister is delusional and in a different Galaxy.

    Meanwhile she says nothing adverse about them at all.

    In your post you seem to suggest that it is we who throw insults. I think the evidence the “flak” is all coming the other way. why is Junckers not pillloried for this language?

  18. On balance I am a ‘remainer’, but I am not ‘desperately’ hoping negotiations will fail and the UK will have to go back to the EU cap in hand.

    However, I cannot share the rosy views of Great Britain pre- EU that some Brexiteers seem to have.
    My main memory of the British economy in the 60s and 70s is that the UK was the ‘sick man of Europe’.

    I worry that we will end up there again.

  19. I’m not worried from myself – I’m all right Jack – but I do worry about what the future will be like for young people.

  20. Oh Lord, I sense Godwin’s Law is about to come into play.

  21. BANTAMS

    I think that’s very fair comment. It does seem the EU will have a media campaign aginst the UK position during the negotiations. However the UK press have some knowledge of media campaigns so I don’t worry to much about it.

  22. @Valerie
    Spot on

    @S Thomas
    Juncker is a complete prat – I am very happy to agree with you on that.
    And he likes insulting people – very true.
    And surely the EU side knows this.
    So, I agree, the EU does not come out of that smelling good,

    None of that changes my opinion that we have started the negotiating process very poorly… the two views are not mutually incompatible.

  23. @ Val

    I think we will have a tricky period post 2019 but nothing too serious. We have a lot more business nous now than in the Wilson / Heath era and are far more entrepreneurial so I take solace in knowing this.

  24. S Thomas: “In the real world the EU is intent on beating and humiliating the UK. This is not about trade to the EC and Germany. i am afraid, to some, we need to be destroyed like Greece.
    This may well come close to a battle for national survival.”

    I think we’ll be hearing more apocalyptic, backs-to-the-wall stuff like this over the next 23 months. But what on earth does it mean?

    The worst the EU can do to us is to offer no trade deal, so that, in TOH’s words (and preference), we “leave in the fullest sense.”

    But it seems to be ST’s view that to leave without a deal will necessitate a “battle for national survival”.

    So which is it be, Brexiters and Brexitesses: no deal means apocalypse now, or no deal leads to the sunlit uplands?

  25. Bantams,

    “We have a lot more business nous now than in the Wilson / Heath era”

    Then why are we leaving the worlds biggest free trade area?

    Peter.

  26. @BIGFATRON
    I quite agree if you are building a business, it is about developing relationships and partnerships but then having developed a new relationship you would surely embody it in a revised contract?

    But “if someone involved in a joint venture wants to pull out or change the terms in a major way ” …. ” you only end up referring to the contract if your relationship with your JV partner has broken down.”

    Which situation do you think describes Brexit? Where did Mr Cameron’s attempt at a revised relationship fit into your scheme of things?
    Over 17 million people voted to leave. 17 million opposed a government policy generally backed by the Opposition on this major issue.

  27. TOH

    “I have always expected that a deal was unlikely which of course will mean real economic pain for both the EU and the UK. In the long term IMO the UK will make a sucess of leaving. I suspect that many thinking Brexiters like myself will have come to that conclusion before the referendum.”

    I took this to mean that you welcome a failure of talks because it will lead to the Full English Brexit that you warmly anticipate. Sorry if I got you wrong!

  28. @PETER CAIRNS
    “Then why are we leaving the worlds biggest free trade area?”
    Because the trade is not free. It comes with strings attached defining how it is regulated – in particular the whole structure of EU governance and law making.
    That is why evaluating Brexit on purely economic grounds does not convince those who think there are other things worth gaining by leaving.
    It is easier to take such a decision to leave if you are a net contributer.
    At this juncture, to obtain the promised economic benefits of staying in the EU means voting for Tim Farron and the LibDems. You may be happy to do that, but
    you see what I mean by ‘strings attached’?

  29. @COLIN: “But if the Laws of Employment aren’t a matter for National Governments , I’m not sure what is.”

    If you’re operating in a single market then your employment laws are a legitimate concern for your partners.

  30. @ Peter

    It should be a free trade area but it’s turned into a cabal. We have been getting the rough end of the deal for too long, the second highest net contributor and I suspect we’re the country with the highest trading deficit within the EU.

  31. Could I ask other posters on this site if there exists a running timetable of sorts concerning when pollsters will or are likely to post poll results? (Sorry for the ‘newbeish’ question, hope it is OK to ask it.)

  32. @Dave

    Re negotiating a new relationship, I think you are making my point for me.

    You are considering what the UK wants, which is just fine in itself from a political standpoint, but to be an effective negotiator you need to be at least as aware of what the other side wants out of the negotiation.

    This isn’t in order to give them exactly what they want, but to maximise what you get in return for conceding anything that you have to concede in order to get a deal done.

    Does that make any sense? I may not be explaining myself very well…

  33. @Bigfatron:

    I think you are right, as far as it goes. We can, for example, ask for proposals on identifying an “EU national debt”, and for a methodology on identifying our fair share. We can offer to make current EU residents in the UK equivalent to UK citizens until the decide to leave permanently. We could even do that for life.

    But I get the feeling the EU will simply reply: you have only given us what we are entitled to. But we also feel unconditionally entitled to more.

    It is the absence of methodology that concerns me – particularly with the EU, which claims to be being terribly principled, and that understands everything.

    There are surely two things:

    1. If the UK is not a member of the EU, what would everyone like instead? The current EU answer seems to be that nothing changes, except we don’t get to vote. So rephrase: if the UK had never been an EU member, what would we expect to exist? There would be a raft of routine uncontentious agreements of no special status, and doubtless some sort of free trade arrangement.

    2. But the EU can rightly say: but you have been a member of the EU, so can we first deal with unwinding that? So the EU’s point on dealing with the divorce aspects first is perfectly reasonable – except I doubt if they have any intention on addressing the future relationship as anything other than a diktat.

    Since March, I have been coming to the conclusion that there is going to be no deal as the EU is more interested in sending a message about exit than anything else. Having been reading what Varoukafis said about the Greek bailout negotiations, I think those in charge are only interested in sending a message about exit.

  34. Bantam,

    “It should be a free trade area but it’s turned into a cabal. We have been getting the rough end of the deal for too long, the second highest net contributor and I suspect we’re the country with the highest trading deficit within the EU.”

    But if we have all the Business know how you claim that shouldn’t have happened.

    As I have pointed out repeatedly, we trade both within the EU and Internationally under exactly the same terms as Germany (the largest contributor to the EU) but they are far more successful at selling to us and the wider world.

    As to Cabal, that really needs some evidence and smacks of someone who isn’t winning complaining about the rules.

    The reason we aren’t in the lead is not that they are running faster than us, it’s that we’re being held back by thicker air they have put in our way!

    Peter.

  35. STHOMAS

    As a “citizen of nowhere” which colours should I rally to?

    If I took it seriously, your vision of the future would make me even more keen to leave the UK rather than be lashed to the mast of HMS UK.

    “We should all suffer together” is hardly a good rallying cry.

  36. I think what remainers forget is if the EU are unreasonable and inflexible about their demands (>£10bn in exit fee, Freedom of movement etc) then they will just underline why the Leavers want to leave. My feeling is that the 27 will find it very hard to agree as they will have too many conflicts internally and will end up being pushed into whatever Germany wants as they will wield the economic power to get the others in line. That probably works in our favour as the Germans have the most to lose especially in terms of exports (Cars Especially).

  37. Good evening all from a damp Winchester Hampshire. Hope you’re all enjoying the bank holiday.

    Been checking my twitter feed and the Daily Record have a Google poll out for Scotland. The poll doesn’t have seat projections but I put the polling percentages into the Scotland votes website for a seat projection.

    SNP..39% seats 46 (-10)

    Tory 25% seats 8 (+7)

    Labour 18% seats 1 (-)

    Lib/Dem 6.2% seats 4 (+3)

    The Greens are at 8.4% which is quite high considering they’re not standing in all seats so this might boost the SNP in certain areas.

    The other interesting part of the poll shows 57% to 43% of Scots would favour independence with Scotland in the EU rather than face Tory rule after Brexit.

    Very interesting…

  38. SOMERJOHN

    My view has always been very clear; no deal will mean economic pain for the UK and the EU. Neither I, nor I would suggest, most serious commentators see it as apocalyptic, as some Remainers and some Brexiters do. The UK will recover from the short term hit and go on to a more successful future outside the EU IMO.

    I hope that answers your question clearly, not that you didn’t know the answer already. Hopefully as Sorrel has suggested in his earlier post sense will prevail but I wouldn’t put money on it.

    PATRICKBRIAN
    I hope that this further clarifies how people like me see things.

  39. Excellent question upthread from Somejohn.

    “So which is it be, Brexiters and Brexitesses: no deal means apocalypse now, or no deal leads to the sunlit uplands?”

    Does anyone really think that the possibility of having no deal with the EU would be the better option? At the moment, the two sides’ comment suggest that it is where we’re heading.

  40. re-read my own post. re:national survival.

    Bit too much hyperbole but you know what i mean.

  41. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Britain Elects were reporting very different findings from Panel Base on their website which is why I asked OLDNAT what was going on. Have Panel Base misreported?

  42. S Thomas

    Never knowingly understated! :)

  43. JAMES E

    I refer you to my post to Somerjohn. We want to leave the EU prefereably with a deal which is reasonable to both parties but if not without a deal, and the voters agree, see the last YouGov polling detail.

  44. @ Allan

    It says it’s a Google survey? What restrictions and weighting were in place?

  45. THE OTHER HOWARD
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    “Britain Elects were reporting very different findings from Panel Base on their website which is why I asked OLDNAT what was going on. Have Panel Base misreported?”
    __________

    Are you on about independence VI?

    I’ve not been polling trolling much lately due to moving house so catching up on everything. Just checked Britain elects and the figures they are showing…

    Independent & in the EU: 41%
    Independent & out the EU: 10%
    In the UK & out the EU: 48%

    (Panelbase 18-21/04)

    The Yougov poll has

    Yes: 45% (+1)
    No: 55% (-1)

    The 3 most recent polls have different figures but all have asked the questions differently.

  46. AR588,

    “My feeling is that the 27 will find it very hard to agree as they will have too many conflicts internally and will end up being pushed into whatever Germany wants as they will wield the economic power to get the others in line.”

    There is absolutely no evidence for that. It’s almost a year since the vote and despite most of the press searching for cracks and writing up any sign, the EU27 seem in pretty much unity.

    “That probably works in our favour as the Germans have the most to lose especially in terms of exports (Cars Especially).”

    This has been covered before.

    The calculation in Frankfurt will be;

    “Will the number fewer cars we sell to the UK, be more than the number of additional cars we sell domestically and across the other 26 countries if UK exports fall.

    Given that we and Germany are atwo of the largest car exporters in the EU German, the largest exporter would be well placed to benefit from a drop in UK exports.

    The “Germany will deal because they sell more to us.” Arguement forgets that they aren’t just a customer here, they are a customer and rival right across the EU and indeed globe.

    Peter.

  47. The Google “survey” just looks a bit odd. I find it hard to reconcile the unusually high 57% support for independence with the unusually low 39% support for SNP.

    Support for Independence and for SNP aren’t one and the same thing, but they are correlated. Voodoo poll?

  48. BANTAMS
    @ Allan
    It says it’s a Google survey? What restrictions and weighting were in place?
    __________

    Funny you should ask that. I’ve been asking myself this.
    The best answer I can find is from James Kelly, one of Scotland’s top political bloggers.

    “I’m not sure if the Record have abandoned Survation as their regular pollster, but for whatever reason they’ve commissioned Google to produce a Scottish political survey, which is apparently demographically representative (albeit on the basis of algorithm-derived ‘inferences’ rather than definite information). However, it’s not yet clear that it’s been politically weighted in the way that would be standard for a poll conducted by a BPC firm, so we should certainly be very cautious about the results”

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

  49. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    No it was the “In the UK & out the EU: 48%” which is a 9% lead for that view, the reverse of Gallop. Any comments?

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