There is also a new ICM poll for the Sun on Sunday. Topline figures there are CON 47%(-1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 8%(+1), GRN 4%(+1), conducted “at the end of the week”. Changes are from the ICM poll at the start of the week. While the Tories are down one and Labour up one (and the Conservative lead therefore dips below the twenty point mark), it’s a far smaller drop than we’ve seen in the YouGov polling this week.


394 Responses to “ICM/Sun on Sunday – CON 47, LAB 28, LDEM 9, UKIP 8”

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  1. @Jack Jones “It is interesting from the ICM/Guardian poll just how many people are MORE likely to want to vote Labour if they are CERTAIN that Jeremy Corbyn will NOT be PM! Clearly their heart is to vote Labour, but even they cannot bear the idea of JC winning.”

    I’ve read several Labour sources who want Labour returned in Opposition without taking too much damage. Even they cannot bear the idea of Jeremy and Diane at the controls!

  2. On closer inspection, it looks like the EGTC would apply to EU countries. It still might act as a model to follow. That is going to be difficult to achieve – much more involvement from the rest of Ireland

  3. Peter cairns SNP

    “But you can’t because all you have is blind faith, you really only have “Ah but we’re British!”

    Your actually very wrong on that but as you know I can’t be bothered which seems to upset you and Somerjohn. I’m afraid you will just have to learn to live with it, or not.

    I liked and agree with your “Ah but we’re British!”

    :-)

  4. THE OTHER HOWARD

    What – he also supported a different football team?!

  5. CHRISLANE1945

    “The phrase ‘bloody difficult woman’ contra the ‘Eurocrats’ will not hurt the Tories in the sight of the ‘Brexit Labour people, IMO.”

    Afternoon and totally agree with you.

  6. DAVID WEST

    We are both Rugby vans. He supports Wasps, I support Harlequins. So in the boardest sense , yes!

  7. Seems to me everyone who expressed distaste that brexit continues to be discussed is now raring to do so. Funny how things change, but this will continue to dominate politics until there is a final resolution, which could at worst case be decades.

    This election would seem to be about whether we should leave or not and if so on what terms. But with a phoney campaign where everyone refuses to say what they really believe. Absolutely extraordinary that something so important to the future of the nation is what all politicians dare not talk about in detail. Talk about democracy in action.

    If this election goes to tory plan, what next? Can the tories survive brexit? May intends to buy them two more years, but this will not see any kind of recovery from a bad brexit. Yet what options will the other parties offer? Will any of them dare to campaign to rejoin, assuming we have left by then? Or will the ongoing process of brexit be again the subject of the next election, with tories asking for a mandate to return to the eu?

    Breathtaking strategy if they could pull it off. Ken Clarke for caretaker PM?

  8. Given that the figure for people less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn has a chance of becoming PM is almost identical to the figure for those more likely to do so… Is it really that easy to read much significance into these figures?

  9. Sam,
    Presumably Mrs May would ask for talks to be confidential precisely because she knows they aren’t. If she felt they already are, no reason to ask.

  10. @danny

    Diplomatic negotiations are traditionally private. Leaking contents to the press laced with contemptuous language is against all diplomatic practice. A polite reminder was in order.

    Anyway, latest Guardian poll is showing a mega lead.

    Labour needs 18 months of polls to be reversed in 5 weeks. Only a massive collapse in Brexit morale could achieve that. Oh, is that an EU negotiatir satirising May’s strong and stable mantra? I think the EU may literally go for broke in the course of the elections.

  11. ROBERT NEWARK

    @”A small part of me would even like to see Le Pen elected just so these people could experience reality.”

    Me too !

  12. Car crash of an interview by Abbott, it’s 1997 all over again,”things can only get better” :-)

  13. Strong and stable 19% lead my bet looks good 150 majority .Forgone conclusion nothing will change never does in the campaign.

  14. Why should the Brexit negotiations be kept secret from UK and EU voters? They are going to have to be regularly discussed in the open by national/regional parliaments, as it is essential that they all be in agreement.

    Is it simply to avoid exposing the reality of Brexit?

  15. S Thomas,
    I have no idea how May plans to square the mess the nation is in. There is a whole range of possible outcomes and courses of action. Maybe she has a spreadsheet of options and maybe one day we shall see it.

    One possibility is certainly that we leave, but I agree it is by no means certain. However, if we do leave then it raises the question of either short or long term campaigns to rejoin. This is pretty much inevitable given there are as many committed remainers as leavers. There will inevitably be a nostalgia for the good times of membership just as there has been about the good times before membership.

    More than that, there has always been the significant chance of immediate bad consequences of brexit causing an immediate lurch in opinion against brexit. Everyone here knows it, and it is why we are having this conversation. Brexit has not happened and may never

    But if it does just happen before such a change of national heart, then brexit might well be followed by an immediate return. Even one spearheaded by the conservatives. But probably not by May. So my wildcard prediction is conservative landslide on a brexit ticket followed by conservative landslide on remain ticket. Nothing if not pragmatic.

  16. The ICM poll implies a Tory majority of 120 – 130.This assume that their post 2015 polling adjustments are correct.

  17. TOH,

    “Your actually very wrong on that but as you know I can’t be bothered which seems to upset you and Somerjohn!”

    If you do any more ducking you’ll need to start putting quacks in your posts.
    Another of your standard responses; I have the answers but Iam keeping them to myself.

    KEN,

    Landrover Jaguar has done very well in terms of oversees growth with it’s latest models but let’s not get carried away. Firstly as I pointed out yesterday it’s owned by Tata so it’s an Indian company.

    Secondly,

    Jaguar Landrover: Revenue £22bn Profit £1.3bn
    Damlier AG: Revenue £127bn Profit £6.7bn

    Then there’s Volkswagon and BMW to add to that.

    Peter.

  18. Danny well they are pragmatic the conservatives if they change to remain with a different leader because public opinion has changed it would not surprise me.

  19. @Dave

    I’m afraid your last post confirms my view. You originally spoke about the Republic of Ireland rejoining the UK. It isn’t going to happen.

  20. I see the Britnats are on again about the poor little Republic of Ireland and how essential the UK is to its trade and economy.

    Some useful facts here:

    http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/irl/

    The USA and the rest of the EU are overwhelmingly.more important to the Republic than the UK.

  21. PETER CAIRNS……But Jaguar Landrover haven’t been cheating their customers for years with deliberately fraudulent emission figures, German car companies are like drug taking athletes, they outperform the competition by ly*ng, and abusing trust, having achieved a competitive advantage they leverage their status and benefit from enhanced revenues as a platform for improvement. Unlike cheating athletes, they don’t get banned, and carry on with even more sophisticated cheating systems, a few billion $ fines are easily absorbed.
    We need to examine each car forensically to ensure a level playing field, if Sunday’s Times is to be believed, they’re still at it.

  22. S Thomas

    Rejoining the EU would definitely be worth it purely to read your apoplectic response!

  23. Hireton
    the Republic of Ireland rejoining the UK. It isn’t going to happen.
    …………………………………
    Never ?
    So if by 2020 the EU set up an EU army with three years compulsory military service to solve both their defence and unemployment problems, the Irish will still never consider leaving the EU…and at that stage look for realistic economic and political alternatives.
    The free trade and mostly free movement of the early 1900s is not the world of 2020. USA probably not interested in Ireland being 51st State now Latino block has leapfrogged Irish vote.

  24. Peter Cairns – “as I pointed out yesterday it’s owned by Tata so it’s an Indian company.”

    It doesn’t matter who owns it, what matters is where the components are made.

    According to the SMMT, in 2012, only 31% of the components of cars assembled in places like Sunderland were British. That jumped to 41% last year. But they’re trying to get to 55%, because they know that most trade deals with the rest of the world (and perhaps even the EU) will demand 55% as part of the “rule of origins” to prevent cheating with cheap components from say China.

    IMO that is the reason for the eye-catching rise in UK manufacturing since the referendum. Lots of businesses (not just car manufacturers) are switching to UK suppliers to a) increase the British content of their stuff to 55% and b) to reduce currency risk.

    Successive govts of various types have been trying to rebalance our economy for decades, but it took a decisive vote from the citizens to force businessses to pay attention. Maybe voters should get stroppy more often!

  25. Candy,
    “It doesn’t matter who owns it, what matters is where the components are made.”

    Unfortunately, it does matter. It matters very much who gets the profits from the parent companies. That is the root of the widening wealth gap in society which has led to effects like Trump, Brexit and Le Pen.

  26. Candy,

    “IMO that is the reason for the eye-catching rise in UK manufacturing since the referendum.”

    What as opposed to a 15% currency devaluation, an upturn in the economies of our major trading partners and all the delayed orders and investments put on hold during the referendum campaign being made and coming to fruition.

    If we see sustained growrh in manufacturing as a share of GDP or GVA that isn’t just down to higher costs being passed due to a weak pound or a rise in raw material costs you could be right but we won’t know that till nearer 2020.

    “Successive govts of various types have been trying to rebalance our economy for decades”

    I think it’s far more that they have been playing lip service to it while both Tory and Labour Governments since Heath have had no industrial policy to speak off and have left it to the market, with the end result that their is more to be made from repeatedly selling the same houses for more each time than actually making things.

    “t took a decisive vote from the citizens to force businessses to pay attention.”

    Yeah, like pushing someone out a top floor window to get them to see if they could fly!”

    Peter.

  27. @Danny

    Most of the suppliers who provide components for Nissan or Jaguar etc are small businesses. The question is, should they be British small businesses with employees who are British and profits that are British and taxed here, or European small businesses.

    Which is why it is so important that the big auto companies are encouraged to increase their British content to at least 55%. I’m pretty sure that any trade deal with the USA will insist on a 55% British content minimum, so if Nissan wants to export those Qashqais to the US tarrif free, and Tata wants to do the same for Jags, they need British suppliers…

  28. andrew111

    I think i would explode:-)

  29. @Danny “we leave, but I agree it is by no means certain”

    As I get older, the years seem to pass more quickly. 30 March 2019 will be here surprisingly soon. Assuming no agreement, but that the EU is unanimous in wishing to continue talks (by no means certain) does parliament vote on whether we agree?

    Incidentally, who were you agreeing with?

    @Hireton “It isn’t going to happen.”
    What is sure is that I don’t expect to see it.
    But if UK had voted Remain, both countries would be in a body on a path towards unity – single state unity. They would share a common language, ability to vote in each other’s elections, geographical closeness and a pretty porous border between, and a lot of incentive to work closely together. One or two other posters (Candy, S Thomas) can see at least some benefits in closer relationships, while one suggested obstacle was national pride (which I think is perhaps really long memories of misrule from London).
    Never is a long time.

  30. Candy,

    “If Nissan wants to export those Qashqais to the US tarrif free, and Tata wants to do the same for Jags, they need British suppliers…”

    Nissan already have three manufacturing plants in the Eastern US, Jaguar are considering opening one in the next four years and if not they could always supply the States from their plant in India.

    Peter.

  31. @Danny

    Regarding Ireland – David Lloyd George negotiated a decent package. He was a bit corrupt in his fund raising, but he was quite fair in his other dealings. Ireland would have had the same status as Australia or New Zealand, sharing a monarch, plus defence (with the Navy having access to some ports), but Ireland in control of everything else, with a separate parliament.

    Michael Collins thought it was a good deal too – and they killed him for it.

    In order to rejoin the UK, they’d have to admit to themselves that they killed Collins for nothing, and all the 5000 that died in their civil way died for nothing.

    IMO it’s very hard for anyone to admit that, so they won’t, and they won’t rejoin the UK. Unless they decide they are going to do it to honour Collins, but that is a long shot, how many Irish people care about his memory these days?

  32. @Peter Cairns

    The only places Nissan makes Qashqais is Sunderland and in Japan.

    They could retool one of the American plants to make them as well, but why bother when they should be able to export their Qashqais from the UK if they get the 55% British content bit nailed?

  33. Candy,

    Why bother getting to 55% UK content in Qashqais to send to the US when they can send them from Japan where they already have over 55% domestic content!

    As to retooling, I think there is a Guy in the Whitehouse who’d be keen on that!

    Peter.

  34. @Peter Cairns

    Because the US puts heavy tariffs on imports from Japan? The japanese have no trade agreement with the Americans (TPP was going to scrap the tariffs, but Trump then scrapped TPP).

    It’s more likely that the UK will get a tariff free deal with the US than the Japanese will…

  35. There is actually a perfectly plausible scenario for rejoining the EU sooner rather than later

    1) It is abundantly clear we will not have a trade deal in two years. Probably we will not even have agreed the divorce settlement, let alone who gets the kids. May says she will leave with no deal, but rich Tory donors will be whispering in her ear “no way Mrs May”. Besides, what she says and what she does have become about as disconnected as if she was Vladimir Putin, so I honestly have no idea what she wants other than the best for Theresa May

    2) The EU will offer us a transitional deal of continued full membership of the Single Market, like Norway. The Tory donors will whisper “Good idea Mrs May, I’ll put the cheque in the post”. Theresa will suddenly remember how her heroine invented the Single Market and would be turning in her grave if we ever left it..

    3) transitional deals in the EU are infinitely extendable.. Remember the “temporary” Thatcher rebate

    4) as we remain in the Single Market demographics will gradually shift public opinion to >60% Remain. At that point we will rejoin…

  36. Andrew111

    You Forgot…

    5) SThomas Explodes.

  37. Candy,

    “It’s more likely that the UK will get a tariff free deal with the US than the Japanese will…”

    Why?

    Don’t tell me; “Ah but we’re British! ”

    Peter.

  38. @Dave @ Jonathon Stuart Brown

    I’m afraid I also don’t subscribe to Brexiter paranoia about the development of the EU into a single state or one which introduces conscription for an EU army.
    They can be filed with Turkey join in the EU. Ireland is not going to rejoin the UK.

  39. Hireton,

    If May gets 100+ majority I think I know which of the EU or UK would be most likely to have conscription!

    Peter.

  40. @Peter Cairns/Candy

    I think the guy in the White House would probably prefer Nissan to carry on making Qashqais in Tennessee and calling them by a Great American name like Rogue rather than importing them from the UK or Japan with a dodgy foreign name.
    After all, they’ve already made 10 million of them in Tennessee!

  41. @Peter Cairns

    Because the Americans are irrationally hostile to the Japanese (who are the only people in a century to have attacked them apart from terrorists, and haven’t yet been forgiven).

    There was a reason Mrs May spent more time addressing the Republicans in Congress than talking to Trump, and that’s because Congress controls trade deals, and they are more favourable at the moment to doing one with us than doing any favours to the Japanese.

  42. I think there is a scenario in which Brexit doesn’t happen:

    1. Talks make little headway during the first year. Even basic things are not agreed. No prospect of trade talks any time soon.
    2. Business frustration, sterling weakness, rises in inflation, falls in consumer confidence. Start of recession
    3. Polls show 70%+ of the public don’t want to leave any more, clear that there will either be no deal or any deal would not get public support anyway.
    4. EU member states are concerned about the budget and behind the scenes talks agree that if the UK holds another referendum and changes its mind we would be allowed back in
    5. 2nd referendum showing 60%+ now want to stay

  43. The entire EU trade talks will come down to a moment of realisation when huge numbers of European workers get wind of the fact Brussels plans to self harm their sales with the UK.

    This is the moment the whole debate gets a Human face, and abstract Brussels political ideals take a hike.

  44. Here’s one example of many I have of the real dynamics at play that WILL ensure UK EU trade is never hampered;

    Flemish rally to avoid a hard Brexit

    Of Belgium’s exports to Britain, 87 percent come from this Dutch-speaking region. In total, 9 percent of Flemish exports head to the U.K.

    Flemish Minister-President Geert Bourgeois insisted that Europe would need a “trade deal-plus” that would privilege British industry over other countries outside of the EU.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/flanders-fabrics-face-brexit-backlash/

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