Opinium’s latest poll has topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 7%(-2) (tables here). The changes are from last weekend, though should be taken with a slight caveat – Opinium have added recalled 2015 vote to their weighting scheme. That changes means it’s hard to tell whether the four point increase in Labour’s support here is in line with the intriguing YouGov poll in the week, or just a result of methodology change. We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.

UPDATE: There is also an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8% – a Conservative lead of eleven points. No changes, as I think this is first proper ORB poll of the campaign, but it is clearly a lower lead than other companies are showing. The Sunday Telegraph themselves have gone rather over the top in their write up of the piece, focusing on the individual regional crossbreaks in what I assume is a normal sized GB poll and saying how remarkable it is that the Conservatives have a bigger lead in Wales than the South-East. This is not remarkable at all: it is because in a GB poll of a thousand people there will only be about 40 respondents in Wales, far too small to get meaningful figures from. A sample of 40 people would have a margin of error of +/- 15 points.


161 Responses to “Opinium and ORB voting intention polls”

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  1. Interesting report in the Sunday Times on one result of its Panelbase poll:

    “Most voters in Scotland believe the SNP would have the right to hold another independence referendum if the party wins more than half of the Scottish seats in the general election on June 8.”

  2. Re the early hours discussion of the NHS and charging.

    In fact pensioners do have to pay for NHS dentistry, though there is an exemption for those in receipt of certain benefits.

    Also, in the early 1980s my car came off the A1 one very wet night, and another motorist called an ambulance. I went to hospital and had a few stitches and my family came and took me home. A couple of weeks later I had a letter from the the hospital asking for a payment – from memory about £15-20 – which I paid willingly.

    I do not draw any general conclusion from these instances.

  3. Crofty – funnily enough UKIP were one of the last parties to pull that stunt before it was banned. Their MEP John Whittaker stood simultaneously in eight seats in 2005.

  4. Alister1948 – that’s the Road Traffic Act 1988 (or it was the early 1980s, presumably whatever act became before that which had a similar provision). Sections 157-159 set out the payments that should be made by insurers or drivers for treatment of injuries caused in traffic accidents.

  5. It always strikes me that the media and the Westminster bubble are totally preoccupied with brexit, while a substantial proportion of the electorate has had enough of it. “We’ve voted out now just get on with it” I here many shouting.

    Lib Dems and Tory campaigns based on brexit are starting to flounder as is UKIP. Labour aren’t mentioning it and are picking up in the polls.

  6. HIRETON

    “Most voters in Scotland believe the SNP would have the right to hold another independence referendum if the party wins more than half of the Scottish seats in the general election on June 8.”

    Not that interesting surely since Scottish voters, on recent polling don’t want another independance referendum and would vote to remain anyway. I could add the polls indicate a May government being returned with an increased majority which would mean that a legal referendum would not happen until 2022 at the earliest.

  7. Anecdotally there seems to be a lot more support for Corbyn amongst the less politically committed than most people think on the grounds that he’s not like the others.

    Personally I find it bizarre but there also does seem to be a move of previous Don’t Knows to Anyone But May. May isn’t a strong campaigner and what manifesto she has is exceptionally thin. At least Labour do have policies other than ‘Everyone do as you’re told’, even if those policies are often silly. This may be starting to tell.

    I can’t personally countenance the idea that Corbyn might improve on Miliband performance but if he did his position would be rightly secure whilst the PM would be in hot water. Assuming it was still May.

    You’d have to have a very weird set of electoral circumstances with a electorate determined to cause trouble though. Fortunately as we are constantly told the electorate never ever want to cause trouble for the Conservatives who are completely immune to popular discontent with the status quo and in fact benefit from it because of reasons.

    In any case May is going to win comfortably.

  8. Crofty,

    Is that the bard with the pups (would be adult bitches by now) from Barnard Castle doing a Roly and posting under a new name?

  9. Just got my first election leaflet from the local Lib Dem MP (Greg Mulholland).

    The interesting thing about it is that there is not a single mention of Brexit or Europe, which was a surprise given Farron’s heavy focus on it, and that the constituency is quite pro-Remain (~65% according to Hanretty’s estimates).

    Mulholland is quite clearly going for the “good local MP” angle and I wonder if other sitting Lib Dems are doing the same. Perhaps the Brexit line is being restricted to those London seats where the Remain vote piled sky-high and the Leave vote is small enough that alienating them isn’t a worry.

  10. Dez,
    ” if May only gets the same majority she already has.It would seem to many a complete waste of everyone time and money”
    Not at all. The conservatives would have two more years to get over Brexit difficulties, which could be critical next time.

    David Colby,
    “It seems the polls jump around more in the UK than they do in France and vary more from company to company”

    I always bear in mind that political parties would love to manipulate the polls for their own benefit, and I am sure they must try to do so. The question arises to what extent they succeed. Contributors to polls are to a large extent self selecting, so if supporters put themselves forward… We note concerns that the large conservative lead might put off conservative voters, and hey presto it starts to shrink. How could pollsters discount a tendency by supporters to lie tactically to them?

    lurgee,
    ” What does he feel he needs to achieve to be able to say, on the 9th, “The fight goes on”?”

    oh, 1 vote? Its a matter of principle, not winning.

  11. Polls all over the place at the moment. Using Election Calculus you get the following Tory majorities:-

    Opinium 128

    Orb 48

    YouGov 74

    Take your pick.

    I guess that labour won last weeks electioneering, they made lots of unfunded promises most of which sound all right to the voters whilst May is only taking the word to the faithful so having less effect. Certainly the YouGov polls show a sharp reduction in the Tory lead. I expect real campaigning will happen after publication of Tory and Labour manifesto’s.

    NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN

    I take your point about voter fatigue on Brexit but IMO it will still dominate come polling day. The EU yesterday were probably helping May without realising it, IMO of course.

  12. Theresa May on Andrew Marr today, will be interesting to see what she says.

  13. @NeilJ

    Theresa May on Andrew Marr today, will be interesting to see what she says.

    Perhaps ‘strong and stable government’ and ‘coalition of chaos’ ?

  14. @CATMANJEFF
    @NeilJ
    Theresa May on Andrew Marr today, will be interesting to see what she says.
    Perhaps ‘strong and stable government’ and ‘coalition of chaos’ ?

    :-)

  15. Thank you Anthony !

  16. Jim Jam

    Rosie and Daisie became disillusioned with politics after the last debacle so I have to post under my own name [one that I haven’t used since starring as a schoolboy footballer of little skill].

    This is a weird election and the polls are even weirder. Starting from such an astonishing high point may prove to have been bad for the tories given that the talk of huge majorities may not actually happen.

    If I was an NHS worker for example, instead of a retired layabout, I think I’d vote for a pay rise and stuff the consequences [assuming there are any apart having slightly more money]. There are probably a lot of people in that sort of position but I still think the thingy in the wotnot [can’t remember the exact expression] will be Corbyn’s defence “policy” and it’s almost certain negative effect on most voters. That plus the fact that, in theory, Labour could at any time vote in someone who is even lefter.

    That will surely be the narrative as we head towards the 12th round.

  17. Imperium
    I suspect the Lib Dem campaign in Leeds NW may be a little more sophisticated than you suspect…

    However my impression (working with many of his constituents) is that Mulholland does indeed have a pretty good track record as an MP and getting that across early in the campaign to all voters is a good plan…

  18. She did OK and only looked uncomfortable when challenged on school funding and at the end on Iraq.

  19. I reas something recently, not sure by whom or exact words but the gist was:

    -To understand what is going on with the polls you need to realise that people sponsoring the polls are seeking to influence the outcome not find out about it.

    Much clearer when you realise that truth.

  20. I read that the non self publicist Gina Miller and her Crowd funding team are considering giving support to the SNP in certain seats to reduce any Tory gains. This tactical genius is no doubt advised by the dinner party musings of Tony Blair.
    How supporting a party dedicated to the break up of the Union will assist the Remain camp in the rest of the UK remains to be seen.
    Having already inadvertently almost destroyed the Labour Party she now turns her attention to the Scottish situation with who knows what consequence. Of one thing one can be certain and that is that she definately does not

  21. Thought what was more interesting was what Theresa May didn’t say as to what she did say. In particular she would not give a committment to the triple lock or ruling out tax rises. Not sure how this will play in the election.
    Only new policy I heard was that they would be looking for greater protection for private pensions, but not too much detail on what it would actually consist of.
    Andrew Marr was gently making fun of the strong and stable leadership soundbite and to be fair she only mentioned it a couple of times. Think she realises it is becoming counter productive to just keep parroting it.

  22. @toh

    You might want to refer to AW’s excellent summary on polling in Scotland on a second independence referendum before spouting the Tory line on views in Scotland about that. You also thought that Remain would win the EU referendum as opinion polls were also indicating at the time.

    The view about democracy north and south of the border which is emerging in the Tory party and its supporters seems indicative that their confidence in a Tory resurgence is waning rapidly. May calls an election to get a mandate but if rejected in Scotland that doesn’t matter. The impact on polling of that approach will be interesting to see.

  23. @NickP

    I always noticed that those people who decry polls as fixed, biased and not telling the truth often criticise those which look bad for their own party, but jump up and down celebrate those that favour them.

    Funny that.

  24. @Catman Jeff and @neilj

    May apparently was taking a different tack down the road from me yesterday:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5hHsEsV-b8

    :)

  25. Update from my earlier post on Peston May seems to have ruled out any VAT increases, still no promise on N.I. or income tax

  26. Good morning all from a dry and mild Winchester.
    Finally made the move last week from Itchen Emmerdale Abbas to the bright lights of Winchester.

    Now, about this “strong and stable leadership”, it’s getting rather repetitive, so much so it will soon lose its intended meaning. Brexit means Brexit anyone?

    Moving onto the polls. There does appear for now to be a narrowing of the gap between the Tories and Labour but more disturbingly for the Lib/Dems there doesn’t appear to be any sign of Farronmania.

    So, are we seeing a long-term genuine narrowing of the polls and a none Lib/Dem revival?…. Now is the time for strong and stable polling.

  27. JIM JAM

    @”She did OK ”

    I disagree.

    She had two opportunities from Marr -Nurses pay, and School Funding-to say something like :-

    ” A lot of people have born a lot of financial pain since 2008 . Public Services have responded magnificently-but I realise that this cannot go on. As we eliminate the final elements of the massive 2010 Deficit, and move to Tax/Spend equilibrium, I want to start the process of correcting that necessary belt tightening-but of course we need a strong economy etc etc etc”

    But she didn’t-she waffled.

    The Downing Street Declaration is just hot air without policies to support it.

    She is very very lucky with her opponent-but needs to keep an eye on those Polls.

  28. Andrew Neil would have torn her to shreds on Public Services-presumably why she isn’t being interviewed by him.

  29. This is the sort of comment that I have increasingly noticed on social media:

    ‘I have been to two party meetings lately where we were told that Labour will not be trying to win any seats. All resources will go in to maintaining and we are not to mention Corbyn when canvassing, as he is a divisive figure, but concentrate on what is happening locally. Not even trying to take marginals. Claims we do not have resources to fight. Not exactly designed to win. We are only going to canvass those who have shown an interest in voting Labour as turnout is likely to be awful. So basically, give up on this, concentrate on keeping MPs in their job, and wait til next time for a win. Concerning. Wonder who decided this?’

    This seems to support the view that some in the LP (presumably from the Labour Right) may be intent on throwing the GE, in order to remove Corbyn. As I wrote earlier on the thread, I’m quite shocked that anyone could see this as being legitimate and not intrinsically anti-democratic. (Btw Labour is not short of funds given the massive increase in membership).

  30. S THOMAS
    I read that the non self publicist Gina Miller and her Crowd funding team are considering giving support to the SNP in certain seats to reduce any Tory gains. This tactical genius is no doubt advised by the dinner party musings of Tony Blair.
    How supporting a party dedicated to the break up of the Union will assist the Remain camp in the rest of the UK remains to be seen.
    Having already inadvertently almost destroyed the Labour Party she now turns her attention to the Scottish situation with who knows what consequence. Of one thing one can be certain and that is that she definately does not
    _____________

    Firstly I would say the SNP do have some pretty big donors and the party probably has a bigger war chest than any other party in the UK except that of the UK Tory and Labour party so I’m not sure her pocket money will actually make any difference.

    Secondly, we all know the SNP are going to smash the election in Scotland. They will lose a handful seats no doubt so again I can’t see this champion of the remain cause and her money having any impact in Scotland.

  31. CROFTY

    @”If I was an NHS worker for example, instead of a retired layabout, I think I’d vote for a pay rise and stuff the consequences ”

    Exactly.

  32. “The impact on polling of X will be interesting to see.”

    I’d like to see less of this sentence construction over the next few months, but I worry that I’ll see more.

  33. SYZYGY

    I have read that Labour is targetting two SNP seats – which rather contradicts your report. Beyond that , in some Tory marginals the behaviour of the sitting MP might lead to a negative incumbency factor so as to make a Labour gain distinctly possible. Telford comes to mind!

  34. I get a small NHS pension (small as I took it v early) as do many others. I ‘think’ that they are also linked to NHS pay and rise with salaries Labour’s pay rise pledge may impress this large group too.

    As for Pete B’s point about annual progression and pay rises, lower grades only have 2 progression points and most about five.

    They are paid in recognition of experience and it should be seen as progression towards the pay for the role as the person becomes fully experienced and receives ongoing training.

    Just had our first canvassers here in Bristol East, Labour lot.

  35. Sue,

    I have seen the same on my local LP facebook page reposted from a momentum site.

    My take is that the polls (plus Stoke and Copeland) suggest 30-50 Tory gains from Labour so it makes sense targeting resources at keeping as many of those as possible.
    Sadly, the claims such as that which you have quoted are part of positioning for the post mortem, I think members would better focused on the present up to June 08th.

  36. Colin – OK is not a ringing endorsement and imo she dropped no clangers. The Tories are so far ahead that all that they need to do is make no howlers.
    I agree that they are vulnerable on Public Services (schools in particular where protecting budgest is misleading and they know it) which is why some narrowing will occur imo from the 20% leads.

    NB) The last 3 polls is not enough evidence that the narrowing has started but another 2-3 would be.

  37. SYZYGY

    It seems like a legitimate strategy. Ignore the seats your definitely going to win, Ignore the seats your definitely going to loose and concentrate all resources on the ones that could go either way.

    The danger is if you start to loose seats you thought were definite holds as they were closer than you thought and resources weren’t used there.

  38. HIRETON

    Since I’m not a Tory why would I be spouting a Tory line? I’m actually spouting my own line. The polling in Scotland seems quite clear to me at the moment. Of course they can change if there is actually a legal vote some time after 2022.

    I notice that the SNP are a lot quieter on a new referendum since they saw the last round of Scottish polling.

    I do read AW’s summaries and they are usually excellent. That does not mean that I necessarily think he is correct all the time in the conclusions he draws.

  39. Whistling in the wind

    i suspect that in our heart of heats we all know the result of this election.

    a. The Tories will win. The only issue is by how much and as to whether a failure to secure a very large majority will be seen by the media as a defeat and conversely weakening TM. My prediction 50 seat majority. Neither victory or defeat.

    b. Labour will lose but do far better than than the nadir polling suggests. The enthused membership will get the vote out.The electorate likes conviction politicians-up to a point. I predict about 30%. The only question will be as to whether JC goes.He will not .he loves it.

    c. The liberals will make isolated gains but need not go away and prepare for government or ,indeed, opposition.

  40. @ S THOMAS

    “My prediction 50 seat majority. Neither victory or defeat.”

    Sounds like a victory to me.

  41. AC

    i agree about impact. Which rather goes to make my point as to their judgement? Why antagonise England for no effect in scotland. Still ours is not to reason why.

  42. Many Labour bods would take a 50 seats majority (Labour net losses 20 or so) as a decent result given the Brexit and leadership negatives.

  43. @RONALD OLDEN

    “One interesting feature in the ORB finding is that the Tories are well ahead of the Lib Dems amongst Remain Voters and the Lib Dems below 20% amongst the same group.
    If that’s right it’s a big boost for Tories. Attracting Remainer Tory votes was supposed to be the Lib Dems ‘cunning plan’.
    These figures might indicate that unlike the Remainer leadership and the Lib Dems in particular, the public itself has accepted the Referendum result, moved on, and now wants to get the best deal for the UK.
    This idea that Remain voters are so obsessed with the hope of remaining in the EU that they will flock to Remainer Labour Candidates, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Greens, is nonsense.
    These parties are making a big mistake in all piling in, to compete for a pool of voters which barely exists, and leaving the ‘lets get the best deal we can’ market solely to Mrs May,
    It’s often forgotten that Mrs May was a Remainer herself, and I don’t see much chance of her voting Lib Dem.”

    I don’t agree. There is still a strong pro-EU sentiment among remainers and your statement about ‘accepting the referendum result’ might be true with the ‘soft’ remain element but I don’t see any evidence of this as a whole. What I do see, on the other hand, is party loyalty, and the problem the LibDems have is that they are a small and centrist party with policies that are not necessarily going to attract Tories or socialist remainers. In addition to that they still suffer from the accusation that they reneged on manifesto promises by forming a pact with the conservatives in 2010.

    This election is just a rubber stamp for May. The ‘real’ election will be in 2022 when people realise – at last – what a mistake it was to vote to the leave the EU.

  44. The next election due in 2022 will under the terms of the FTPA take place on May 5th with Dissolution at the end of March that year.It follows that the Parliament elected on June 8th will actually only be for 4 years and 9 months!

  45. @GRAHAM: “The next election due in 2022 will under the terms of the FTPA take place on May 5th…”

    Although:

    “Under section 7(4)–(6), the prime minister is obliged to establish a committee to review the operation of the Act and to make recommendations for its amendment or repeal, if appropriate. The committee must be established between 1 June and 30 November 2020, and the majority of its members must be members of the House of Commons.”

  46. TANCRED1967 RONALD OLDEN

    There is a definite difference of opinion regarding how much effect brexit policies have on voting intention. Are more cosmopolitan areas more likely to think it’s important maybe?

    Is there any polling on exactly this?

  47. I think Labour’s operation varies a lot around the country. In one CLP in the Midlands (West) the factions are still fighting with each other, and do nothing about the elections. Around here they seem to have reached a settlement for the time being (although there are saboteurs from both sides).

    They have also come up with new (kind of) ways of campaigning (even if Liverpool is not particularly threatened in the GE, but the LibDems may win some council seats), which is commendable. Also, the new recruits (both leftist and centrists) are working quite hard, and actually bring new ideas.

  48. As others have said the next few polls may show whether there is a genuine closing of the polls. If so May could be hugely embarrassed if she returns in June with a similar majority to the current one.

    I also feel that, if the polls were to close, it would actually be an indictment on Corbyn. He recently said that, for the first and only time, he was going to talk about himself. But if you are aiming to run the government of the UK then it is essential that the people being asked to vote for you have some idea of who you are; and one that is not just seen through the prism of an antagonistic media. It could be that Labour’s policies are popular but that he is the person stopping them gaining majority support in June.

    I have mentioned his defence policy confusion [which he set in train immediately after he was elected leader]. He has never, to my knowledge, attempted to explain this to the public at large and at least try to win understanding and support for his views. Everything seems to be never ending committees [which makes me think of Soviet Russia and seems equally ineffective].

    If you don’t define yourself then others will define you – and his dire personal ratings demonstrate just how well this is working for him.

  49. COLIN

    In view of your comments on the last thread i watched May on Marr. For once we have to disagree. On Brexit she was very clear there will be no money terms agreed until a trade deal is agreed so a UK red line s also clear as i expected it to be.

  50. I was one of many who put too much faith in the polls last time around. Nonetheless, I still see them as valuable quantitative information.

    The big news of the first week of the phoney campaign was a bounce in Con VI and a corresponding collapse in UKIP. This “feels” real, as the announcement of the election forced UKIP supporters to ask themselves what is the best way to secure Brexit, and not surprisingly many have opted for a government that has nailed it’s colours to the Brexit mast, rather than UKIP itself. The high Con VI is underpinned by strong scores on economy and leadership (and most other issues) so looks very believable.

    So what of week two? This week’s main story has been a recovery in Lab VI. This is plausible against the flow of events. The LD’s had a difficult week with the media focus on Tim Farron’s personal beliefs. Boris Johnson (the boy who can’t say no to US military interventionism) and his petty insults was a reminder of what many disliked about Cameron and the Bullingdon set cronies. Add to this the fact that Con campaign was essentially no more than a couple of endlessly repeated slogans while Lab offered up policies, it seems quite plausible that Lab would attract some of the Lab leaning “undecided” back into the fold.

    I agree that the strong and stable leadership meme will become stale and eventually counterproductive if overplayed. However, this will happen more quickly amongst political geeks than in the general public. It has some mileage left in it yet.

    So as we are about to enter week 3, we see a comfortable Con lead , recovering Lab VI, stalled LD VI and collapsing UKIP. I don’t expect any significant change in strategy from any of the main players until the Local Elections are out of the way. Spinning the results of those will be a lever to change the narrative. Over the next few days I expect to see a continuation of the current pattern and trends, with perhaps a slightly better week for LD than last.

    As ever Scotland is a different story.

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