Opinium’s latest poll has topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 7%(-2) (tables here). The changes are from last weekend, though should be taken with a slight caveat – Opinium have added recalled 2015 vote to their weighting scheme. That changes means it’s hard to tell whether the four point increase in Labour’s support here is in line with the intriguing YouGov poll in the week, or just a result of methodology change. We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.

UPDATE: There is also an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8% – a Conservative lead of eleven points. No changes, as I think this is first proper ORB poll of the campaign, but it is clearly a lower lead than other companies are showing. The Sunday Telegraph themselves have gone rather over the top in their write up of the piece, focusing on the individual regional crossbreaks in what I assume is a normal sized GB poll and saying how remarkable it is that the Conservatives have a bigger lead in Wales than the South-East. This is not remarkable at all: it is because in a GB poll of a thousand people there will only be about 40 respondents in Wales, far too small to get meaningful figures from. A sample of 40 people would have a margin of error of +/- 15 points.


161 Responses to “Opinium and ORB voting intention polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. It seems the polls jump around more in the UK than they do in France and vary more from company to company. I believe the French polls were pretty accurate across the board for each of the various candidates in round one.
    Is there any good reason for this?

  2. On the Telegraph survey, it suggests a big leap for the Tories in London and Scotland:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

    If that were so, and London would be very counterintuitive, then they must be going backwards or at least static in other areas.

    However, whilst opinion polls can be influenced by bursts of enthusiasm which prove shallow (e.g. Cleggmania), this site teaches us that public opinion moves slowly.

  3. Re the sacred cow of the NHS:

    The link is to an article about the status of the health service prior to the NHS. I found it very interesting.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3612806/There-was-never-any-need-for-the-NHS-to-begin-with.html

    The final few lines:
    ‘Healthcare in Britain was very substantial and impressive prior to 1948. Even the Labour Party pamphlet, which recommended a “National Service for Health” in 1943, could find little to criticise. There is mention of only one waiting list, for “rheumatic diseases”. That implies that there were no waiting lists for all the other specialties and no waiting lists to see consultants. There was no mention of any shortage of doctors (which is so chronic now) or, indeed, of nurses. There was no complaint either, about the quality of care.
    Why, then, was this system thrown out, to be replaced by a socialist model? Because, said the pamphlet, a good medical service should be “planned as a whole”.
    It is certainly true that pre-NHS medical care was not “planned as a whole”. On the other hand, it worked.’

    I believe that the Tories are actually ahead of Labour in England on the NHS. There is a lot of delusion and misinformation around. Anecdotally, I needed to use a chiropodist recently (not available on the NHS), and we chatted about the NHS. She seemed to be under the impression that if further privatisation went ahead, that we would have to pay to see a GP. When I pointed out that GPs were already private businesses, and always had been, she was nonplussed.

    If the Tories want to increase their lead on the NHS they do need to point out to the electorate how much of the NHS is already privatised, and always has been. I didn’t realise myself until I went to work for them

  4. @peteb

    You seem to be a bit confused regarding the difference between a service free at the point of use ( on the whole) and whether that is delivered by private contractors or by a public service. By interesting that the Tory commentators are opening up the possibility of abolishing the NHS ; do you think that will win votes?

  5. Marina Hyde (one of only two reasons for reading the Guardian, these days; the other is Gary Younge) suggests the Tories are playing a Jose Mourinho strategy – letting the other side make mistakes, don’t do anything yourself.

    With a commanding poll lead, it seems viable, but if Labour keep chipping away as recent polls suggest they are, the Conservatives might find themselves barely any better off than they were before May triggered this election.

  6. PeteB,

    It’s easy to have no waiting lists when sick people are afraid to go to the doctor, because of the cost, and so don’t get referred!

    Peter.

  7. Tancred – “It puzzles me as to why the Tory remainers are so loyal despite May’s policy.”

    A big part of it is traditonal respect for the democratic process (Tories are big on tradition). In 300 years we have never had a plebiscite overturned out of disrespect for the demos, (though we have come close a couple of times – the tension over passing the Parliament Act in 1911 (the Bishops came to the rescue and turned out in force to vote with the govt in the Lords to ensure that the King didn’t have to relinquish impartiality and choose sides) and the plots against Harold Wilson which the Tory opposition refused to endorse.

    People are proud that we respect the results of votes, unlike those dastardly continentals who get made to vote over and over till they get the result that their EU overlords want. When europhiles suggest we do the same here, your average Tory remainer recoils in horror – that way lies the slippery slope to dictatorship, much better to stick to tradtion and respect the results.

  8. @ JO

    I’m not sure why a close defeat is considered a nightmare for Labour (as opposed to a catastrophic loss) – for most people in the party it will represent a vindication of what they’ve been saying
    ————————————————————————–
    I totally agree with you. Sometimes the comments on here are less than neutral… However, it’s useful to know the diversity of ‘opinion’ even if there is a noticeable lack of Jeremy Corbyn supporters. It’s sometimes difficult to remember that Labour has 62k more members than all the other parties added together… (shields head waiting for the all the reasons why it isn’t significant).

  9. Hireton
    As usual, you seem to be deliberately misunderstanding me.

    You say “By interesting that the Tory commentators are opening up the possibility of abolishing the NHS”

    I assume that ‘interesting’ was a misprint for ‘insinuating’? But I was in know way insinuating that. I was simply trying to say that what seems to be the current meme that before the NHS the poor were left to die in the gutter was not true.

    Also, who the provider is is completely irrelevant to the user. The NHS is partly free at the point of use, though working people have to pay for prescriptions, dentistry, spectacles etc. There is no reason that would change if the providers were private. Oh! Just remembered! Most of them are private anyway.

  10. @ candy

    ‘People are proud that we respect the results of votes’

    Ironic in view of the lack of respect in the LP for Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

  11. I do not think it will happen but if May only gets the same majority she already has.It would seem to many a complete waste of everyone time and money.

  12. @SYZYGY

    Your average voter has a different sense of what is important from the “great and the good”… There is a genuine horror about not respecting elections, people rightly fear that way lies chaos.

  13. If people have data, research, even straw polls in the pub about whether those who actually voted in 2015 are (certain they are or are not) going to vote again, this would help a lot.
    Turnout may be the story of 2017.
    2016 was significantly above 2015.
    I am hearing there will be several no-voters this time. But I really value eyes and ears elsewhere getting a feel for the likely turnout.
    Once again the polls seem broadly in line with what i am getting from various people canvassing.
    Local elections will be better for Labour and Libdems than GE if both were held tomorrow. Tories clearly in a big lead in GE but seems a mile wide and an inch deep. More fragile support among those above the 2015 levels.

  14. @ Candy

    Your average voter has a different sense of what is important from the “great and the good”… There is a genuine horror about not respecting elections, people rightly fear that way lies chaos.
    ——————————————————————-
    I’m sure you’re right but I confess to being rather shocked by those who are clearly (by your definition) not ‘average voters’ who regard deposing Jeremy Corbyn by foul means as perfectly legitimate.

  15. It is a lost battle i know but the the nHS is not free at any point. services are “not charged for” at the point of delivery. But then they are not under a social insurance scheme either.Under the NHS you pre pay through general taxation and under social insurance through pre paid premium. I do not think one is morally superior to the other but may suit different groups to a greater or lesser extent.( you post pay as well)

    The use of the word free is a nonsense and stifles all debate on the subject. if we used the words “charged for” we might have the much needed mature debate

  16. Peter C
    “It’s easy to have no waiting lists when sick people are afraid to go to the doctor, because of the cost, and so don’t get referred!”

    In Birmingham pre-NHS, and I assume in most other cities at least, there were A&E departments available free to all. My own belief is that this is part of the reason for the pressure on A&E services today. There is folk memory that A&E is the first place to go.

    Anyway, I repeat that the Tories should try to convey some of this to the electorate in order to negate the Labour message though I understand it is not easy to convey (as evidenced by my own attempts here). Anyway g’night all unless I’ve had any further replies.

  17. @Syzygy

    That’s mostly people at Westminister and the political elite as far as i can see

  18. S Thomas
    “…services are “not charged for” at the point of delivery…”

    Yes they are, even if it’s not at market rates. If you are at work, you pay for prescriptions, dentistry and spectacles and, as I found out today, chiropody. This is on top of the taxation that you mention. Now really g’night all.

  19. “Healthcare in Britain was very substantial and impressive prior to 1948”

    Don’t believe everything you read in the Telegraph. You could do worse than refer to the 1944 White Paper that laid the foundations for a national health service.

    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v7n3/v7n3p12.pdf

  20. Pete B

    yes of course but my point was one of language/semantics.

    the services you mention are no more “free” than “non chargeable”

  21. @ BARDIN1

    That’s mostly people at Westminister and the political elite as far as i can see
    ————————————————————————–

    I’m afraid it’s not my experience that it’s only the ‘bubble’… in fact, there are quite a few much closer to home.

  22. To answer the previous rhetorical question: of course the number of members a political party has is **utterly irrelevant**

    It’s akin to thinking a ‘mass rally’ (sic) of 1,500 people on a Saturday afternoon in Sheffield- with banners representing far left groups from places such as Leeds and Manchester- was significant. When the population of Sheffield connurbation is around 500,000…!

    Same point John Golding made about Foot in 1983 campaign mistaking rallies of the faithful for (genuine) ‘mass’ support in the country. Labour managed a paltry 27.6% in that catastrophe.

    What *is relevant* is the number of votes a party gets in each constituency and the number of MPs they return to Parliament.

    Convincing other parties voters to vote for you is the key. Something the hard left refused to accept in 1983; and still don’t accept !

  23. bank holiday polls?

  24. And now the (anecdotal) news from the constituency everyone is talking about….Clacton! UKIP are finished. No Carswell, no UKIP. The Tories look set to return with a big majority, which is good news for all those who used to watch the sitcom, Bread, on telly as the Tory candidate is likely to be Giles Watling who played the vicar.

    Out canvassing for Labour shows the best response on the doorstep since 2001. Sharp division between those who think Corbyn is great and those who…er…don’t, but he does seem to be winning over more of the “normally don’t vote” electors than turning them off. Could be a hidden Labour vote there.

    Also a huge increase in Labour Party members and active members who are putting much more work in on the ground than I can ever remember.

  25. I’ll reiterate my view that there will be no landslide on June 8th.

    Clearly the Tories will be the largest party, my view is that the chief objective is to reset the election countdown to 5 years so that Brexit is sorted by 2022.

  26. Has there been many polls tonight

  27. YouGov

    Con 44
    Lab 31
    UKIP 6
    LD 11

    Dates 27-28 Apr

  28. With changes

    YouGov

    Con 44 (-1)
    Lab 31 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-1)
    LD 11 (+1)
    GRN 2 (-1)

    Dates 27-28 Apr

  29. @Syzygy

    I think there is a lot more sympathy for Corbyn and his views amongst the non-politically engaged than is given credence by those inside the tent, so to speak. We’ll see when the votes come in but I would be surprised if his Labour Party, despite the undermining of the PLP, got as many votes as Milliband, or close to as many.

  30. “wouldn’t be” – sigh!

  31. I see Nuttall is standing in Boston AND Skegness. Seems a bit cheeky but I suppose that gives him two chances to get elected.

    [Still a long way to go to catch up with ole Nigel’s number of attempts though].

  32. Looks like Labour has somehow managed to scrape back over 30%!

    I suspect Tory strategists won’t be unhappy though. If the lead is too constant and high, even the Daily Mail’s hyperbole about Corbyn winning won’t get the vote out.

    As another poster said, the big guns and relentless negative campaigning to destroy Corbyn probably won’t be wheeled out until after the local elections.

  33. Here are the updated EWMA charts (including tonight’s poll):

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDTkpXZ3hzYXJUelh0SVgtLXJkeUw5cVNTXy1z/view?usp=drivesdk

    Labour’s improvement looks genuine in the polls (two in a row). The last time they polled like this was September 2016.

    The Conservatives are still comfortably ahead.

    The Lib Dems look to be levelling off.

    UKIP falling like a stone.

    ***Note a small change in my methodology. I felt that the lambda value previously used (0.2) was a little too sluggish to pick up changes, especially as we are in the narrow time frame of an election. I have used a value of 0.4. This increases the significance of the most recent poll***

  34. I think that perhaps the Conservatives have been to reliant on running down JC and focusing on Brexit.

    They will need to find an improved narrative to promote for sure, based on policies, and engaging more with real people and the media.

  35. @ CATMANJEFF

    Exactly. A General Election is not a Presidential campaign.

  36. Hi Pete,

    Delurking because I have to disagree about the Telegraph’s revisionist rose tinted view of pre NHS healthcare. Here is good quote from the BMJ website for starters.

    http://www.bmj.com/content/345/bmj.e6378

    “How much better our healthcare system would surely be if it was based on those most noble human impulses—self help, voluntary effort, and charitable giving; reinforced, perhaps, with a diversity of providers troubled by the very minimum of regulation. Such a blueprint might be vigorously advocated by the think tanks currently commanding attention in Downing Street. But of course, just such a system existed in the UK before the NHS was founded, and the ramshackle, chaotic, and disorganised services it produced left millions in terror of falling ill.”

    Anyone that has ever had a beloved pet and no pet insurance will know the pain of having to choose to pay medical bills you can’t afford. Now imagine if that was your parent, child or spouse in need of expensive care.

    Now consider how litigious modern life is compared to 1930s Britain. This is part of why the US system is so expensive. Have a look at this international comparison of different first world health systems.

    http://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2014/jun/mirror-mirror

    Note how well the NHS compares both in quality and cost effectiveness to all other systems let alone the private US system. Now consider how unsuccessful and costly the many other privatisations have been and how much support there is for renationalisation of the natural monopolies like trains and energy. Privatisation of healthcare would be a renter wealth extractor as much as most others were. It would not produce a better service.

    I really can’t see this being a vote winner and a party that forces it through by deceit and misinformation will eventually suffer a backlash.

  37. ORB and YouGov both have Tory + UKIP at 50%, which is a dip on consistently higher levels.

    But it comes to a pretty pass when a 13% lead looks worrying for the Tories. They are where they have been for ages on the ORB and YouGov figures. A move from UKIP to Labour? Who knows.

  38. On the basis of tonight’s polls Labour may have a realistic prospect of coming out of the election with over 200 seats.

  39. these polls indicate that corbyn would get the same votes as miliband.

  40. @ CMJ

    I didn’t dare believe the polls but now I’ve seen your graphs :)

    @ Norbold

    Great to have your news from Clacton. It’s a similar picture to that in my Tory/LD marginal.

  41. @ Alberto

    I really can’t see this being a vote winner and a party that forces it through by deceit and misinformation will eventually suffer a backlash.
    ————————————————————————
    Agreed. I believe that the preferred model in the Conservative Cabinet is the Kaiser Permante one in California which is apparently free at the point of delivery. I don’t know the exact details of the scheme but I imagine that the slide into ‘rentier wealth extraction’ will be very gradual and masked by the perpetuation of the NHS logo and via James Galbraith’s ‘Predator State’ model.

  42. So, a serious question: If Corbyn were to equal or modestly improve on Milliband’s performance in terms of votes (say, 29-32%) but lose ground in terms of seats, what then? I could see a result along the lines of 45-32-4-11 based on some recent polling (and indeed such a result would be optimistic in terms of vote shares for both major parties). This might see Labour dumping 20-40 or so (a UNS shows the lower end but it’s /really/ hard to pin Scotland down at the moment, and I think there may also be some “sloshing about”, particularly in Labour/Leave constituencies.

  43. (Addendum to the above: A result like the above would also leave the LibDems quite thoroughly hosed…they might well net lose seats in England due to UKIP-Tory vote consolidation, and it’s anyone’s guess whether they can round up votes in Scotland to get across the line there.)

  44. Opiniums Polls are not reliable. This poll is overstating UKIP and understating the Lib Dems. Opinium was showing Labour much closer to the Tories than this only a couple of weeks ago.

    I have no idea what’s going on with ORB because it doesn’t seem to have offered any methodology.

    ORB’s polling figure for Wales is ludicrous. The idea that they are on 56% there is crazy. 56% would give them nearly every seat in Wales. Even taking into account the full 15% margin of error, 41% looks a bit too much as well. It would however still be a bit higher than the ITV Poll earlier on the week, which itself was supposed to be an earthquake,

    So it does seem to confirm a substantial rise in Tory support in Wales which should be able to take them past Labour, and make them the biggest Party there.

    One interesting feature in the ORB finding is that the Tories are well ahead of the Lib Dems amongst Remain Voters and the Lib Dems below 20% amongst the same group.

    If that’s right it’s a big boost for Tories. Attracting Remainer Tory votes was supposed to be the Lib Dems ‘cunning plan’.

    These figures might indicate that unlike the Remainer leadership and the Lib Dems in particular, the public itself has accepted the Referendum result, moved on, and now wants to get the best deal for the UK.

    This idea that Remain voters are so obsessed with the hope of remaining in the EU that they will flock to Remainer Labour Candidates, the Lib Dems, the SNP and Greens, is nonsense.

    These parties are making a big mistake in all piling in, to compete for a pool of voters which barely exists, and leaving the ‘lets get the best deal we can’ market solely to Mrs May,

    It’s often forgotten that Mrs May was a Remainer herself, and I don’t see much chance of her voting Lib Dem.

    I heard the SNP deriding her (and some Labour MPs) recently for ‘changing their minds’ on the EU. What the SNP actually mean however, is that Mrs May has accepted the result of an election.

    Voters in a democracy see that as as a basic requirement of any politician. The SNP however see it as something to be ridiculed.

    All that polls like these two, with their shaky predictions of a bit of a Labour revival are doing is giving the Tories ammunition to take to potential voters, who don’t want to give Mrs May a huge majority, but nevertheless want her to win, and enabling them to say ‘Every one of you must Vote Tory or you get Corbyn’.

    The idea that Opinium has now managed to correct its’ failure to apply proper weightings to the raw data by looking back to how the people surveyed, voted in 2015 is silly.

    Apart from Brexit, the principle issue in this election is that Corbyn is different from what was on offer in 2015, and by common agreement much less credible and popular.

    But having said that, if you apply these Opinium figures to the Basic Swingometer with adjustments for the situation in Scotland, it gives the Tories 415 Seats, Labour 170 and a Tory overall majority of 180.

    If you apply the ORB figures with the Scottish adjustment AND their 56% finding in Wales it would still give the Tories a majority of about 100.

    An interesting reaction (or non reaction), to both these polls is available in the Spread Betting Market.

    The anticipated share of the votes for the parties hasn’t changed. And in a market where people are risking their money and have a collective degree of expertise in interpreting these figures, that tells us more about what’s going on than the polls themselves.

    If anyone thinks these polls are anywhere near right they can and back up their judgement with their money. The profit they’ll make will allow them to retire.

    If as might be the case these figures are accurately showing a firming up pf Labour’s position, all that does is takes them back to where they were before the election was announced.

    The obvious explanation for that, is that the imminence of the election is fading from some people’s minds. But when the day comes there’s no reason to believe that they won’t go back to the position they took when they first heard Mrs May wants the election.

    We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.

    Having said all this however my view remains that the Tories will get an overall majority in the 50s. But that prediction is nothing to do with either of these polls.

    The only risk to the Tories is complacency amongst their voters. If they can get their vote out they have 100% chance of winning.

    I’m a Conservative Party supporter and when they day approaches i will be telling potential that things are neck and neck even if, in reality we are 20 Points ahead.

    That’s a great tactic for us. But the comical thing is that naive Corbynites who have no idea how to maximise their vote in elections will be doing he same thing and vote gathering for the Tories at the last minute.

    That, it appears. is the history of the Labour Party, they never learn.

  45. ssimaon:

    “Looks like Labour has somehow managed to scrape back over 30%!”

    —————————————————————————————

    Corbyn will be jigging his way into Number 10 if this continues!

    It is interesting to speculate what a good result will be for Labour. At risk of being tony Blair, if current polling is remotely accurate, they are not going to win or even form a coalition. So what is Corbyn’s number? What does he feel he needs to achieve to be able t say, on the 9th, “The fight goes on”?

    He’ll have a good case for claiming he is getting somewhere if he gets anything better than Milliband did. And while that isn’t great, he can (justifiably) say that things might have been better (see what I did there?) if some in the party had been more supportive.

    Also, I suspect this will be a low turn out election. Even I’m kinda over polls and votes and trying to find silver linings for Labour. Crucial question is, then, how much vote can Labour get out? Will there be a grim, determined desire to register a “Not in my name” vote against May? Or will the Red Hordes (I said hordes!) say at home and sulk?

    If Labour can get out its vote in good numbers, and Tories don’t bother because they see the result is a done deal, Corbyn may end up with a very flattering share of the vote, and the upper hand over his critics for pretty much the first time since he was elected.

  46. This is the phoney war, I believe it is pointless to start extrapolating results yet. Let’s see what the real campaigns come up with after the locals.

    It will be interesting to see how well the lib dems do in those locals as they are, at the moment, getting squeezed.

  47. @CATMANJEFF
    I think that perhaps the Conservatives have been to reliant on running down JC and focusing on Brexit.
    They will need to find an improved narrative to promote for sure, based on policies, and engaging more with real people and the media.

    Agree, also the constant use of the phrase ”strong and stable leadership” by not just the P.M. but by every Conservative spokesperson who is on the T.V. I think it becoming a standing joke.

    I also think this is being reflected in the recent polls, sooner or later they will have to break cover and say something with more substance. With the locals only 5 days away I do not agree that they should hold back until later in the campaign.

    A narrative is developing that May is frightened to face the press and real people and is reliant on soundbites, or should I say sound bite. If she really wants to be seen as a strong leader she needs to demonstrate it and not just say it.

    Having said all that think the Conservatives will still win, but talks of majorities of over 100 are just pipe dreams unless they can get their act together and actually start giving positive concrete policies for the way forward.

  48. @Norbold/Syzygy

    There seems to be a marked difference in the activity levels of the new members depending on where you are.

    In my neck of the woods they are largely invisible (if you discount the Momentum Facebook stuff which is heavily promoted and concentrates on criticising the Labour council). I’m out of town this weekend but last weekend we had one single new member out of about 30 out canvassing. Further, in my experience there are about 10 voters who express negativity about JC for every one who expresses positivity. My fear is that it will be hard to get these out voting, though they are still in the Labour camp for the most part.

    It’s good to see an upturn in the polls and perhaps the view of JC will take a turn for the better: there has been much more of a sellable story coming out of the leadership in the last week or two,

  49. @Guymonde

    From your previous posting also, it would appear London is a different place politically than the rest of the UK.

  50. Labour creeping slowly up but still miles away… impact of Johnson’s personal abuse and Syria bombing comments?

1 2 3 4