Opinium’s latest poll has topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 7%(-2) (tables here). The changes are from last weekend, though should be taken with a slight caveat – Opinium have added recalled 2015 vote to their weighting scheme. That changes means it’s hard to tell whether the four point increase in Labour’s support here is in line with the intriguing YouGov poll in the week, or just a result of methodology change. We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.

UPDATE: There is also an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8% – a Conservative lead of eleven points. No changes, as I think this is first proper ORB poll of the campaign, but it is clearly a lower lead than other companies are showing. The Sunday Telegraph themselves have gone rather over the top in their write up of the piece, focusing on the individual regional crossbreaks in what I assume is a normal sized GB poll and saying how remarkable it is that the Conservatives have a bigger lead in Wales than the South-East. This is not remarkable at all: it is because in a GB poll of a thousand people there will only be about 40 respondents in Wales, far too small to get meaningful figures from. A sample of 40 people would have a margin of error of +/- 15 points.


161 Responses to “Opinium and ORB voting intention polls”

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  1. Despite the caveats, it’s the same broad picture as the other polls. Large Tory lead over Labour and Libdem and UKIP roughly equal but a long way behind.

  2. Horror week for Farron….

  3. I think the Lib Dems will be hit unusually hard by a poor turnout resulting from election fatigue. Their younger voters will just not be as motivated to turn out as Tories. I expect them to struggle in their South/South-West targets.

  4. The changes aren’t methodology as the changes are similar in the raw data too

  5. I think ssimon has a point this may have an impact on seats like Bath where the students have gone home for summer

  6. Labour at 30%, I see.

    Maybe the LD focus on re-fighting the Referendum may not net then the kind of gains they expected.

    Maybe Labour’s policy approach to the post-Referendum reality isn’t a bad one after all.

  7. Labour at 30%, I see.

    Maybe the LD focus on re-fighting the Referendum may not net then the kind of gains they expected.

    Maybe Labour’s policy approach to the post-Referendum reality isn’t a bad one after all.

  8. SSSIMON interesting point. Any evidence ? even anecdotal evidence ? Turnout will matter.
    I welcome polls on whether people who voted in 2015 intend to vote again.
    Tories in safe seats may think why bother we have won anyway.
    Labour may not vote because of inability to vote against tribe and inability to endorse Corbyn as opposed to vote him out of leadership.
    LibDems who are ardent leavers and recall LibDem policy is de facto second referendum may not vote. Farron fans may be confused by flip flop mixed messages on Bible material.
    Tories may not be afraid of Corbyn unlike the more potent fear of Miliband-Surgeon in 2015 because of polls showing Corbyn has zero chance of getting power.
    Close contests usually lead to high turnout.
    This may be nearer to 2001 levels.
    Early on June 24 last year Ukip must have thought the next election was their big breakthrough. Then Farage quit. Aaron Banks money went as well. The punch up in Brussells, defection of Stephen Woolfe, then next leader quitting after 19 days, then Nuttal having a difficult start, well it may put off some but I suspect that a strong policy, big moment could swing a lot of Leave people back especially if any local race looks like Ukip candidate can win.
    Genuine scrutiny of Theresa May by the media or any of the other parties could be a game changer but so far there is zero evidence it will happen.
    This may be a symptom of election fatigue by the media as well. If they are not driving it, then turnout could dip to low 50s. A long way from the 1990s let alone 1970s.
    Any polls, info, anecdotes on turnout intention please from any part of the UK. Thank you.

  9. Jesse Phillips looks in real trouble in Birmingham Yardley and John Hemming looks like he could get the seat back.
    These are remarkably well known quantities in the constituency and based on reports of early canvassing and doorstep response.
    Not indicative of national trend other than some Labour spillage is down to Corbyn.
    Phillips has perhaps unfairly been perceived as being more interested in building a celebrity media career than Yardley local issues.
    Hemming’s vote is clearly set to rise and if Tories decide to indulge in tactical voting then Phillips is toast.
    But very few West Midland constituencies have anything like the high profile well known characters going head to head. Very many people who vote in the West Midlands can not name the candidate they voted for in 2015 because it was party brand loyalty.

  10. I have been reading these threads on here for several months and I cannot remember reading about ‘sitting government party incumbancy’ as a factor that may alter the final result of the GE.

    The reason I bring this up is because in the 2015 GE I seem to remember it being mentioned a fair few times.

    The problem as I see it at the moment is complacency may occur on the part of Conservative supporters but to counter this Labour could well suffer from depression in their supporters, both could contribute either singularly or together on the actual turnout.

  11. Jonathan Stuart-Brown

    There are a lot of ‘mays’ in your post – that’s may with a small ‘m’ for the avoidance of doubt!

    As regards turnout and likelihood to vote, I think the Tories have been doing fairly well in this respect – somewhere above 70% of those polled – but maybe those more regularly posting on this site will have more definitive information.

  12. Generally the Tory big lead, Labour at very best treading water and LibDem and Ukip volatile from 5 to 15% is my research in the West Midlands based on talking to people canvassing in each party.
    So polls seem broadly correct.
    Maybe just a hint on the doorstep that voters are not yet awake, engaged, and this could mean lower turnout or that polls are accurate today but will not reflect any change in late May/early June if result is very different.

  13. David West, thank you.

  14. I am amazed just how well the Tories seem to be doing. I am a Conservative voter but I still think that the idea of any party winning over 40% of the votes is quite amazing. However, the Conservatives have been scoring 40%+ for several weeks.

    I agree with Rob Sheffield that it’s been a horror week for Tim Farron. (Am I weird to associate him in my mind with chestnut dessert?) But I think he’ll recover from it. Rightly or wrongly, gay rights are not high on the electorate’s agenda. But, if gays are disproportionately likely to vote for the Liberal Democrats, then maybe the effect of his rather ineffectual “clarification” of his views on gay sex will remain.

    I think that the really interesting thing about this so far quite dull election is that it’s been called *before* the local elections. It will be fascinating to know how Thursday’s local election results affect public opinion, in particular, perception of the different parties.

  15. This is borderline redundant to say, but the SNP aside its looking like we’re seeing 50 years of rising third party voting unwind. I didn’t expect to say this but it’s looking like Labour might succeed in consolidating the anti-Tory vote (well, what remains of it) south of the Border (at least, outside of a few corners of Wales). It’ll be interesting to see how this would play out over the longer term, too…

  16. Interesting focus group of 16 floating voters from Slough:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-turning-off-labour-voters-in-slough-huffpost-uk-edelman-focus-group-finds_uk_5904443ce4b05c39767fcab0?jda

    It looks like the Conservative support is mainly down to Brexit, plus there is a personal vote for Mrs May. Once Brexit is done and Mrs May retires politics will go back to normal. The ghost of Maggie is there too – in the video about Mrs May, someone said, “she’s been compared to Thatcher, which isn’t a bad thing” – I’m not sure anyone in that focus group is actually old enough to have voted for Mrs T (they were all aged 30-59)!

  17. Erdington is going to The Tories for the first time since 1936.

    It looks like Tories will take Northfield and Edgbaston (Stuart was very popular locally).

  18. Labour creeping up?

  19. @ Candy

    Mrs T led the Conservatives into the 1987 election – anyone over 48 could have voted for her as leader.

  20. @ExileInYorks

    Watch the video – those eight women looked in their 30’s and early 40’s (they had school age children).

    It’s kinda interesting that the generation who came of age after Thatcher value her for the resilience she built into the economy, while some of those who lived through the transition are pretty bitter.

  21. @ Charles Stuart:

    As I said in a message on the parallel Scottish thread, the impact of the local elections coming before the GE will be to greatly help tactical voting.

    We now will know which party in our own constituency has the best chance of beating the SNP – either LibDems or Tory in ours. And many will vote accordingly.

    Similarly where there are local elections in England the voters will have help in deciding how best to beat the Tories.

    Local voting may have biases, but national opinion polls are poor guides in particular constituencies.

  22. Candy

    Thanks for the link – very interesting piece – there does seem to be a general desire to get Brexit over and done with, get back to normal Conservative v Labour politics with Corbyn gone. It will be interesting to see the extent to which the moderates in the Labour party such as Cooper and Umunna take part in the election – I suspect not much. They may see this as an opportunity to get back their party as is borne out by those Slough voters who are switching to the Tories. Nothing ‘shy’ about those particular Tories!

  23. Some thoughts..

    1. Is strong canvassing in the areas of local elections effecting the polls in a not ‘uk typical’ manor as they often fought highlighting local issues ? It’s surely reducing undecided’s
    2. The Tory campaign seems not to have started and they are either inept or in the process of planning a coordinated and timed and dare I say a ‘strong and stable’ campaign. However, I’m surprised they haven’t unleashed a major policy or an attack on Corbyn to help in the locals.
    3. Jeremy Corbyn is doing his thing and announcing popular policies each day, triple lock to pensions, unfreeze the NHS pay, increase minimum wage to £10, build 1M houses. This is helping his numbers. It will be interesting to see how it’s costed.
    3. Lib Dems , hard brexit / soft brexit , maybe another referendum, and the majority of Lib Dem MP’s in leave areas doesn’t look like a good strategy.

  24. @Candy

    I’ve never been convinced of the value of small focus groups.

    How people can be considered representative of more than, well 16 people, I don’t know.

    Why were those 16 chosen, Did more people express opinions, and the final views cherry picked?

    I’m a sceptic!

  25. David West – “Nothing ‘shy’ about those particular Tories!”

    Yes. They said some nice things about David Cameron too. There is a re-evaluation of Toryism going on, which is why Lab shouting “evil tories” and not offering anything else and simply expecting people to vote on that basis is a big mistake.

    Whoever follows Corbyn will have to come up with some genuinely fresh thinking, not a rehash of the 1990s, or 1970’s or 1940’s.

  26. A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.

  27. @CatManJeff

    I think they are representative of Slough and nowhere else!

    The reason people listen to focus groups is that the members tend to repeat what they talk about in their workplace, homes and pubs – what you are getting is a snapshot of the “received wisdom” in a certain place. The received wisdom in Slough is that Mrs May doesn’t stand any nonsense (probably a direct result of her sacking Osborne).

  28. @ Candy

    Judging age by appearance is very subjective. You quoted the age band yourself (30 to 59), so I imagine there are at least some in the upper half of that range. I saw a few likely candidates.

    @CMJ

    I share your scepticism

  29. Britain Elects? @britainelects 5m
    5 minutes ago

    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%
    LDEM: 10%
    UKIP: 8%

    (via ORB)

  30. “I think they are representative of Slough and nowhere else!”

    If that. You’d certainly never have guessed from that that 39% of Slough’s population was classified as Asian/Asian British.

  31. Candy

    I agree, and have long thought the same, that Labour make a massive mistake in saying ‘evil tories’ and using terms like ‘a morally bankrupt government’. They need Tory voters to switch to them, and that is not going to impress them to do so. Whilst they are not actually calling Tory voters ‘morally bankrupt’ Tory voters will make the association for themselves and will more likely consolidate their vote. The Tories will attack Labour for being economically incompetent, leaderless etc, but tend to stick to their policies rather than their morals.

  32. Labour’s big nightmare here is if they do actually recover in the polls and recover to a level higher than Milband/Brown.

  33. As i am not planning the tory campaign i imagine that:

    1. they were less prepared than labour because they believed TM;
    2. The electorate has already formed a view of Corbyn; laying into him early would appear like bullying;
    3.The Tories need a comeback by him to galvanise support;
    4. A comeback will squeeze the liberals;
    5. Operations will commence after the locals;

    Generally it is not Labour that has improved but Corbyn who has demonstrated , yet again, that he is a good on the stump. He may secure every vote in the parish but the parish is 30% tops.The nightmare for Labour is that he loses but loses well.

  34. Andywilliams

    apols for making the same point. By the way loved your christmas greatest hits LP:-)

  35. I’m not sure why a close defeat is considered a nightmare for Labour (as opposed to a catastrophic loss) – for most people in the party it will represent a vindication of what they’ve been saying: that if you give Corbyn a chance he can reach people. Kinnock was given two shots and 8 years at getting Labour over the line after taking over following 2 successive election defeats. If Corbyn manages to steady the ship following 20 years of decline in the Labour vote then he will have every right to stay on until the next election and see if “one more heave” can push them over the top.

  36. Both polls tonight are a bit odd but are we seeing the beginning of a Labour revival?

  37. Jo

    This is true depending on the view you take of whether he represents true labour or whether he is an aberation. However if one assumes that in 2022 labour will start from 170-180 seats Corbyn will be 102 before Labour could form a majority government.He may be more lucid then but he will probably have retired to Venezuela by then from where he will be able to extol the merits of their health system.

  38. Anthony

    National polling is helpful in confirming the overall Con/Lab position, but are we expecting any constituency polling – might be quite interesting for the LDs.

  39. @Nick

    I guess there will only be constituency polling if someone will pay for it.

    Last election Lord Ashcroft was willing to spend his squillions, but he gone rather quiet.

  40. It puzzles me as to why the Tory remainers are so loyal despite May’s policy.

  41. Jo – Labour Vote share increased by around 1.5% 2010-15 and by 2% or so in E&W.

  42. A report on Political Betting says tomorrow’s Yougov shows a 13% Tory lead – compared with 23% a week ago and 16% mid week. Precise figures not yet available.

  43. Looks like the lead is narrowing.

    And there’s a long way to go !

  44. I’m not surprised by Labour’s apparent slight recovery as their base support is solid. Time will tell as to whether this will continue to improve, but Corbyn needs to focus on where is strongest: the NHS and pensions.

  45. Come next Thursday May will go to the Queen, the election will be official, the gloves will come off in no uncertain terms and Lynton Cosby will destroy Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell very quickly by hoisting them on their own petards and absolutely trashing them in the media.

  46. There’s also not much of a Tory campaign going on. To me, in some ways, the bigger story may be the “cooking off” of minor party voters.

  47. David Welch
    “Similarly where there are local elections in England the voters will have help in deciding how best to beat the Tories.”

    Or how to help them. (As we are not supposed to be partisan here).

    NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN
    “…unfreeze the NHS pay…”

    It is a myth/propaganda that NHS pay is frozen. I worked in the NHS until a year ago. The point is, most NHS employees normally get 2 pay rises a year. One is for cost of living, and the other is a virtually automatic step up the ladder of your grade. Those at the top of their grade do not get the latter, but they are a minority, and can always apply for posts one grade higher to get round it (starting a year or two in advance if they have any intelligence). The cost of living component was frozen for one year I was there and in other recent years was limited to 1% (when inflation was about the same anyway).

  48. Further report from Deeside and the Dear Leader’s visit. It seems that the village hall which was not told what the booking was for ( booked as a children’s party by the local.MSP who’s family used to own the nearby Crathes Castle) may have breached its charitable status by promoting political activity soma referral to OSCR seems possible. And there is now a video of Ruth Davidson interviewing the Dear Leader rather than a journalist. The Scottish visit looks increasingly bizarre.

  49. It is interesting to see Labour focus on Corbyn as a more personable and approachable individual – taking the leadership bull by the horns.

    And my, how much leadership bull there has been!

    It would be difficult to get the message across over the heads of a too compliant media, but May’s ‘strong and stable’ pitch is really rather wide open to ridicule. Her policy flip flops are significant, along with unravelling budgets and other reversals. Stability is not a feature of her government to date.

  50. Tancrred: “It puzzles me as to why the Tory remainers are so loyal despite May’s policy.”

    1. A lot of Tory remainers are not terribly pro-EU, but were worried about the economic effects. Theresa May, Philip Hammond, and William Hague are all Tory remainers. Such people are unlikely to prefer Labour’s approach (which is either a plot to surrender or something incoherent) or the LibDems (which is to surrender – hard surrender, soft surrender, they don’t mind.)

    2. A lot of remainers on all side think you can’t go back. So they why should that sort of Tory remainer defect to Labour or Tory.

    3. Do not forget that the EU will extract a price for going back. They don’t like the idea of countries invoking Article 50, and then being able to wind the clock back if they get cold feet. There will be a price like the loss of the rebate, refugee quotas, Schengen membership perhaps, maybe even Euro.

    4. Even if the EU is really super nice, there will still be a price. We’ll have shown ourselves to be powerless and dependent. Maybe that is to reveal the reality – but having it so demonstrably proven will mean in future we do as we are told.

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