Opinium’s latest poll has topline figures of CON 47%(+2), LAB 30%(+4), LDEM 8%(-3), UKIP 7%(-2) (tables here). The changes are from last weekend, though should be taken with a slight caveat – Opinium have added recalled 2015 vote to their weighting scheme. That changes means it’s hard to tell whether the four point increase in Labour’s support here is in line with the intriguing YouGov poll in the week, or just a result of methodology change. We’ll have another YouGov poll for the Sunday Times later tonight which may shed some light.

UPDATE: There is also an ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph. Topline figures there are CON 42%, LAB 31%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8% – a Conservative lead of eleven points. No changes, as I think this is first proper ORB poll of the campaign, but it is clearly a lower lead than other companies are showing. The Sunday Telegraph themselves have gone rather over the top in their write up of the piece, focusing on the individual regional crossbreaks in what I assume is a normal sized GB poll and saying how remarkable it is that the Conservatives have a bigger lead in Wales than the South-East. This is not remarkable at all: it is because in a GB poll of a thousand people there will only be about 40 respondents in Wales, far too small to get meaningful figures from. A sample of 40 people would have a margin of error of +/- 15 points.


161 Responses to “Opinium and ORB voting intention polls”

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  1. @ Crofty.

    Nice to see you posting again.
    Hope pups have grown into nice young ladies. We don’t use the ‘b’ word around here :-)

  2. Thanks Valerie and yes, they are always referred to as the girls or the babies. Dunno what they think of ole Corby but I think they would be a frightened of Mrs May if we met her on a walk.

    Or perhaps that’s just me……………………

  3. @Tancred

    From a practical perspective it matters not a jot how pro-EU some voters may be if it’s not an issue that leads them to change their vote. And based on polling evidence, the number of Remain voters who are changing their vote based on this issue is very small indeed.

    As for 2022, your faith that in time everyone will come to see the error of their ways and vote against Brexit has more basis in religion than fact. That simply isn’t how politics works. Even if you are right and Brexit does prove to be an utter disaster, voters are more likely to blame the Tories for screwing it up, than decide that they were wrong and support reunion with the EU.

  4. MarkW
    “I get a small NHS pension (small as I took it v early) as do many others. I ‘think’ that they are also linked to NHS pay and rise with salaries Labour’s pay rise pledge may impress this large group too.”

    There have been several versions over the years, so what you say might be true for you, but mine goes up by CPI the previous September round about this time of year.

  5. Feedback from door knocking for locals in Durham , Brexit is just not an issue!

  6. the Other Howard,
    “On Brexit she was very clear there will be no money terms agreed until a trade deal is agreed so a UK red line s also clear as i expected it to be.”

    I assume it is an aim of this election to secure a working majority for the conservatives for the next 5 years. So that whatever they have to do in the negotiations, they will have this time to sell it to the public. All promises to the electorate now will be cancelled, in light of the changed reality resulting from negotiations.

    I do not see anything from the government pinning them down to one course of action, and indeed their rhetoric has been all about obtaining maximum flexibility. Therefore I can see every potential outcome still possible, ranging from the Uk leaving this year to not having done so in 5 years time.

    Taken literally, when the Uk refuses to pay a departure settlement, negotiations could be over very quickly. In which case, May will face a parliamentary revolt whatever the outcome now, but assuming she is able to face it down we can expect an immediate rough economic ride. She would then need all the 5 years to hope to have a stable economy by the next election.

    This option might be becoming more attractive since there are signs of a softenting of the pro Leave vote. We shall see if this is just noise, but to consider the government’s situation if this were to happen, how could they proceed with departure if polls were showing 60/40 remain? But equally, how could they not? My experience thus far has been that the remainers have been the more accepting of having lost the vote, whereas some leave supports have seemed quite confrontational at the merest possibility of a re-run.

    There is a potential risk that were the government to choose to Remain after all, there could be civil disobedience. Or, departing in the face of falling public support could produce deep electoral unpopularity. Neither one a good scenario to be happening at an election time.

    If the government felt either one of these two scenarios was possible, and in particular if it was an either/or outcome, they might well be tempted to depart immediately and risk the milder charge of following their mandate unaware of future consquences. Or alternatively of stringing out negotiations until ten years time and another electoral cycle.

  7. test

  8. Danny

    This option might be becoming more attractive since there are signs of a softenting of the pro Leave vote.

    What evidence is there for this?

  9. All very interesting, but none of it helps with solving my problem as to how to best run the plumbing while I refit the kitchen this weekend.

    Few voters are political geeks, and even those (like me) who are, take time off from politics for the more mundane aspects of life.

    (Not that life will be worth living if I haven’t got the kitchen back into working order by the time Mrs Nat comes home tomorrow night!)

  10. Car crash of an interview by Abbott, it’s 1997 all over again,”things can only get better” :-)

  11. Regarding Diane Abbotts interview I agree it was terrible but thecosting of 300m seems about right to me. We are talking about new police officers, they start on £19,773, by their fourth year they are on £24,975, so lets say around 22,500 a year average salary. Even if they were all employed at once it would be 225m, but as we know they will be employed over 4 years so it will be significantly less than this and even with incidentals like training, uniform, employer National insurance contributions I doubt it woukd be more than 300m pounds a year.
    ( in the Met they do get a £2,373 allowance but it would make only a small difference to the overall picture)

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