I don’t think we’ve had any GB polls today (not doubt there will be the usual flurry for the Sunday papers tomorrow), but we did get a YouGov Scottish poll for the Times, their first of the campaign.

Topline voting intentions were SNP 41%, CON 28%, LAB 18%, LDEM 7%. At only 41% the SNP are lower than in the Survation and Panelbase polls last weekend, but YouGov also show the Conservatives doing significantly less well than that Panelbase poll that had them on 33%. If these figures were repeated at the general election then the Conservatives would take seven seats from the SNP, the Liberal Democrats would take two.

Voting intention on Scottish independence stands at YES 45%(+2), NO 55%(-2) (and that’s without 16 and 17 year olds, so reality might be slightly more pro). Asked about a second Indyref, YouGov asked both about the principle of it and the specific timing – on principle, 42% of Scots want a referendum in the next five years, 51% do not. Asked about specific timing, a referendum before Britain leaves the EU is marginally more popular than one afterwards: 37% would support a referendum once negotiations are complete but before Britain actually goes, 35% would support one after Brexit.

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56 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll”

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  1. For the above to make sense, and not be a contradiction of the previous sentence, I assume the 37% and 35% referred to are 37% and 35% of the 42% who want an Indyref in the next 5 years.

  2. BT
    Have a look at the Full Tabs.
    The figures are lower than the 42% (and the 51%) of the 5-year question, because more people ‘don’t know’ their answer to the questions.

  3. Does anyone else feel like the general election haven’t really started properly yet

  4. Dave

    You’ve missed my point. Both the 37% and the 35% want one in the next 5 years (after Brexit is the latest), so by definition they can’t be part of the 51% who don’t want a referendum in the next 5 years.

    The number of don’t knows to that question isn’t really relevant.

    I hope I’ve made it clearer now.

  5. With the polling from both Wales and Scotland showing big Tory surges, what can we say about the comparative increase in their vote share in England? Could it be that the increase in England is therefore not as large as might be indicated by GB polls as a whole?

  6. @ PANTHER
    “Does anyone else feel like the general election haven’t really started properly yet”

    No, it hasn’t. I suspect this election will mirror 2010, where the wind soon disappeared from the Tory sails. I still think they’ll “win”, but no significant increase. Any gains from hopeless Labour, running on their rims, will be offset by losses to Lib Dems.

    Scotland and Wales worth a push from the Tories though.

  7. Seems oddly incongruous that fewer would want an independence referendum within five years (42%), than would vote Yes in it (45%)?

  8. Geoff,

    Poll at the beginning of April showed the Tories slightly down in London, so that is offsetting big gains elsewhere. The last UGov crossbreak showed them about 1% up in London (with low accuracy)

  9. Reiver97: “Seems oddly incongruous that fewer would want an independence referendum within five years (42%), than would vote Yes in it (45%)?”

    I don’t find it so odd.

    I voted Leave, and have always been a supporter of that cause. But I didn’t want a referendum last year. 1. I though it was a bad time, and Leave could not win. 2. I think there are fundamental problems with the UK election, of which only the Ponzi scheme of mass economic migration is plainly an EU issue, although we could do with being in charge of our regional aid.

    The point is not whether I am any more right on my economic assessment than I was on my prediction for the referendum, but I am sure there are many Yes-voting Scots who have similar thoughts on the Referendum. If I wanted Independence, I’d say the best way is for very good trade deal between the UK and the EU making “independence” in the EU possible without setting up trade barriers with England and Wales. With the line being taken by the EU, if I were a Yes-voting Scot, I’d want to wait.

    Equally, I am sure there are No-voting Scots who support a referendum either to kill of the issue, or for democratic reasons.

  10. @jonesinbangor

    “No, it hasn’t. I suspect this election will mirror 2010, where the wind soon disappeared from the Tory sails. I still think they’ll “win”, but no significant increase. Any gains from hopeless Labour, running on their rims, will be offset by losses to Lib Dems.”

    Unlikely, unless the Tories really screw up the manifesto by dropping the triple lock or saying they’ll sacrifice 100 kids for every seat they win, they are going to gain in the region of 40 seats, possibly more if UKIP significantly cuts the number of seats it contests, the Lib Dems are in a nightmare position, running on Brexit when 8/9 of their MPs sit in leave majority seats, they’re going to rise from the ashes.

    As for Labour, their problems are well documented.

  11. @JOSEPH1832

    While I am a Unionist, I agree with your analysis that for Scots who wish to leave their future relationship with the rUK is way more important than the EU on almost every measure.

  12. Maybe someone can help me out. On the raw figures the SNP have lost less than 5% of their 2015 GE vote, which out to translate to a 47.5% VI. They have retained 95% but in the table retention is 77%? How does this work? Is it that the ones they have lost are being weighted up a lot for some reason? Or am I just not understanding something

  13. Nothing new in this poll,

    It simply confirms the Tories as the main opposition, on exactly the the same share of the vote as the Survation Poll showed last week. I myself never believed that the Panelbase Poll was accurate.

    I don’t think the further weakening of he SNP position is very significant, although it does suggest to me they have little chance of winning the remaining Labour seat.

    I’m expecting 47 SNP 8 Tories 3 Lib Dems and 1 Labour. So the addition of Scottish Tory MPs alone would double Mrs May’s majority in the House of Commons without her winning a single extra seat in England and Wales.

    She’ll also be able to point to the 41% SNP share of the popular vote and argue that Scotland has voted 3 to 2 against Independence in this General Election.

    To contradict that fact Sturgeon will have to explain how it can be that people who are pro Independence, are, nevertheless voting Tory Labour and Lib Dem. All of whom are determinedly Unionists.

    There’s no significance in the Independence numbers either. The fact that the poll might slightly understate support for Independence owing to 16 and 17 year olds being excluded, is likely to be offset by at least as big a general overstatement of Independence support.

    I think Support for Independence is the same as it was in the Referendum. If people want to vote for Independence they can vote SNP. But it appears only 40% or so of them are willing to do so.

  14. In view of the fact the boundary commission report was based on data that will be out of date by the time of the 2022 election, has anyone heard of any moves to update it’s findings. I know it was originally scheduled to report in 2018 but that was to ensure it was completed for the 2020 election.
    Bearing in mind we will have 5 years to do it now, is it likely that it will include the latest voter registrations. We have obvioulsy had a few, the Brexit referendum, the locals coming up and the General election in June. Seems to make sense to use the latest figures to base their decisions on.
    I have even heard reports that the current bumber of M.P.’s will be kept at 650.

  15. BT says
    “I assume the 37% and 35% referred to are 37% and 35% of the 42% ”

    I think we are simply at cross purposes. I understood your “37% of the 42%” to mean 15.5%, while it actually means 37% of the total, included in the 42% of the earlier question.
    My “figures lower than 51% ” referred to the 48% and 49% who opposed a referendum either side of Brexit. It would have been clearer either to have not mentioned the 51%, or to have spelled it out.

  16. Ignore my question in the middle of the night … I know it’s different people duh!

  17. The leadership approval ratings for Ruth Davidson show strong support across all the unionist parties. Con + 83, Lab +33 and LD +64.

    The contrast with Kezia Dugdale is quite stark: Con -25, Lab -3, LD -7.

    Time to resurrect the Conservative and Unionist party label?

    For those writing off Labour in E&W as having no future, the current performance of RD & SCon are a salutary reminder that recoveries from even the deepest of holes are possible.

    Effective leadership, clear positions on the salient issues of the day that connect with the electorate, and actually opposing the governing party are the main ingredients in the path back from the wilderness. Labour learned this lesson during the Thatcher era, they need to relearn it to find a path back to government

  18. 2015guide/boltonnortheast/comment-page-1/#comment-391328

    Is there a way to flag up posts that are in moderation? Mine has been there since 2nd April.

  19. Good Afternoon from a sunny Bournemouth East.

    Reports that Leeds Central is no longer a safe seat for Mr H Benn may be an exaggeration.

  20. Joseph1832 made some wise comments at 12.13 am.

    As a NO voter in Scotland, but meantime very concerned about how TM is pandering to the hard right, I am certainly keen on a second referendum soon.

    This would put pressure on TM to shift back towards the centre, and to give adequate funding to the NHS instead of pressing for £18 bn in efficiency savings; also it might stop the squeeze on benefits and local government.

    Unless TM changes her current stance, it is very likely that YES will win a second referendum.

    There must be many in Scotland like myself hating that our UK society is becoming so divided by wealth and geography, and hostile to foreigners, who could swither from voting to keep the precious Union into being glad to separate from the Southern English.

  21. The power of tactical voting seems to me to be magnified for people in Scotland by our local elections with STV coming shortly before the General Election.

    From the results of next Thursday`s voting we will be able to see for our Westminster constituencies which parties have the best chance of keeping out the Tories or keeping out the SNP, depending on our standpoint. And then vote accordingly on June 8th.

    There is also a greater chance that thinking about UK politics will affect our local vote.

    With STV we can vote for any number of candidates, 1 up to the total standing in our ward. Earlier in 2017 I had been thinking of voting for the three existing councillors in our 3-member ward because they all have done a good job, though of three different parties, LibDem, SNP and Tory.

    But now that TM has called a GE and also I have found the existing councillors are not standing, I plan to vote for just one or maybe two parties. If everyone chose to do that, there would be a clearer indication for June 8th.

    And I am baffled by how STV actually works and how we see in the results the actual votes cast. It seems some elected councillors may win regardless of a low number of 1st preference votes, but by securing votes a) from the losing candidates by transfer, and from b) the first winning candidate to exceed the “quota”.

    How the count people decide which votes of b) to transfer to 2nd choices isn`t clear, and could be decisive.

  22. I am finding it hard to come to any prediction about the Scottish result.
    For now I am pretty much on the about 50 for the SNP.

    I have two reasons for uncertainty.

    Firstly in a lot of seats where Labour was in and the SNP won, the Tories are just two far behind to mount a challenge this time. If the overtake Labour and come second then they might build on it, but not many wins yet.

    In the ones where the Tories are second or close it might be that the other Parties votes have already been squeezed and there isn’t enough left to boost it to a win.

    The is also the possibility that some of the Tory increase comes from Tories who voted Tactically LibDem or even Labour against the SNP, so going home to the Tories might conversely help the SNP in former LibDem seats.

    The second reason goes back to the BPC review of the 2015 General Election.
    As I understand it, put simply the main conclusion was that voters, particularly Labour ones, who answer polls were more likely to vote than those that wouldn’t so the Labour vote was over estimated.

    So if their are Ten Labour voters, Fiveanswer a poll and Three would vote a Sixty percent turnout but of the other Five only Two would vote, a Forty percent Turnout, then the poll predict Six Labour votes when in reality it would only get Five.

    Now I know most Polsters have made adaptions to try to better predict the outcome but it could still be that Labour voters in this election are still less likely to come out than predicted and even less likely to come out to vote Tory.

    On the other hand we still have likelyhood to vote in Scotland in the polls close to 10% higher than the UK figure, so perhaps people will come out in greater numbers. After all the polls predicted Scotland better than the UK overall and the higher the general interest in politics the less likely the uninterested are to be a decisive factor.

    Peter.

  23. ‘Unlikely, unless the Tories really screw up the manifesto by dropping the triple lock or saying they’ll sacrifice 100 kids for every seat they win, they are going to gain in the region of 40 seats, ‘

    They’ll gain 40 seat no matter what they say or do. You’re not living in the real world if you think this is going to be anything other than a landslide.

  24. Bernard,

    Weren’t Chelsea 13 points clear a few weeks back and on for a landslide?

  25. @petercairns

    It will be interesting to see if the experience of voting in Indyref1 will lead to more young people who were 16 or 17 then voting in this UK GE as for many this will be the first opportunity to do so.

  26. David West

    Oh yes of course Chelsea were- you are right!!!

    Plus let’s remember Trump wasn’t expected to win and- so I’m told- the polls never suggested a Bexit win…

    Oh. But. Jeremy-Corbyn-and-the-hard-left.

    Enough said.

  27. ,150 majority for the conservatives .it is a foregone conclusion.That mantra is the truth unlike any possibility of a coalition of chaos.Which undermines people’s sense of realty when politicians speak.

  28. Leaders of 27 EU countries have agreed the Brexit negotiating timeline and position within a few minutes. Tusk’s proposals unanimously accepted. Out is out, and no special conditions.
    It seems as if we’re heading for a very hard Brexit. Will this affect VI , if May has misled the electorate concerning the possibilities available?

  29. This general election has a long way to go.

    If I were Labour I’d unpick TM’s “no deal is better than a bad deal” standpoint, and focus on the mess in the NHS and public services.

    Some radical manifesto promises like getting rid of student tuition fees and introducing a graduate tax would be good, as well as abolishing the House of Lords.

  30. When of the oddities of May’s Scottish speech today (and to some degree the Leeds speech) was the avoidance of the world Labour, and all about Corbyn. In addition, as the DT reported, the words “Conservative Party” is removed from their posters for the North.

    In a way it makes sense, but a) can it be sustained: b) do they really think that traditional Labour voters would not notice that May is the leader of the Conservative Party?

    This morning I saw the first poster in a window (it was Labour, not surprising, considering the area).

  31. Apologies for the horrific spelling, missing words, etc. Smart phone …

  32. @Rob Sheffield “Oh. But. Jeremy-Corbyn-and-the-hard-left.
    Enough said.”

    But, but, but Jeremy was arrested for protesting against Apartheid.

    I hear this kind of temporary incarceration makes one Prime Ministerial material… apparently.

    In the same speech, Jeremy also attacked Theresa May as being “Presidential” for the way she tightly controls power and framed Tony Blair as a Tory.

    So that will cheer up Momentum but one wonders what is going through his brain if he believes calling TM Presidential is going to hurt her. In fact, it’s playing directly into the Tory script. His leadership relaunch speech (laughable as that sounds) will also inform all those Labour supporters and floating voters who did vote for Blair that they are best served by voting for the Tories.

    The mind truly boggles.

  33. Oh i would like to see the faces of the EU leaders if the on june the 9th TM simply announced to them that in 2 years time we are leaving and are content for WTO rules. No money , no back taxes. nothing.

    No meetings

    see how they run

    best negotiating tactics ever.

  34. Britain Elects

    CON: 47% (+2)
    LAB: 30% (+4)
    LDEM: 8% (-3)
    UKIP: 7% (-2)

    Opinium

    LD’s look too low for me.

  35. @S Thomas – the reaction would be rubbing their hands with glee and preparing for the influx of employers, I suspect.

  36. Polling question…phew,..

    The Liberal Democrats keep polling quite low and there are many comments on here that state it seems too low. Is there any reason it could be being underestimated or have they failed to engage with the electorate?

  37. BOBINNORFOLK.
    Good Afternoon to you from Bournemouth.
    I beg to differ with you over the Liberal Democrats; I think the 8% here looks high, and more LD and also UKIP votes will go to the Tories as will some Labour votes.
    Just my instinct, having observed every GE since 1964. Those were the days my friends..

  38. Alec

    I just dont like being threatened by Germany. and a load of politicians whose countries have lived high on the hog on the back of our payments to them and not a word of gratitude.

    Spain is a net recipient. Why?. I have travelled fantastic new spanish roads paid for by the EU ie Britain, germany ,france and Holland while i have to travel on pot holed tracks in the UK; Spain has its new High speed rail line paid for directly or indirectly by the UK taxpayer through the EU while i travel on slow overcrowded relics. If we devoted £20 bn a year to our infrastructure instead of contributing to the EU this country would soon be transformed. Couple that with overseas aid and very soon we are talking serious money.

  39. @BOBINNORFOLK

    ‘LD’s look too low for me’

    Or it could support a basic narrative of UKIP voters flocking to the Tories and the anti-Tory vote responding by going for Labour despite any negative perception of Corbyn – in most seats (obvs ignoring Scotland &NI) Lab will be the only viable alternative to the Tories.

  40. Those Opinium numbers look interesting.

    My You Gov analysis including the last poll shows a Labour uptick.

    I’ll update the charts after the next YG poll to see what they look like.

    Perhaps they are lifting a bit from their floor a touch.

  41. Penderyn: “Will this affect VI , if May has misled the electorate concerning the possibilities available?”

    That surely is a function of whether those currently leading towards the Conservatives would see this as:

    a) Leave supporters having been recklessly optimistic; or
    b) The EU being unreasonable.

    For many Remainers, the second possibility makes as much sense as saying “Everything I say is a lie”.

    I think we are either heading for no deal or surrender. The EU will raise its redlines until those are the options.

    Varoufakis gives an interesting account of EU negotiating: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/yanis-varoufakis-brexit-advice-theresa-may-avoid-negotiating/ and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/adult-room-yanis-varoufakis-tried-failed-win-forgiveness/

    For this to work, both sides need to say, “Because the UK is not in the EU, there are things the cannot ask from the EU, and things the EU cannot ask from the UK – lets respect that, and be friends.”

    The EU is not going to do that unless it climbs down massively. It starts off on current residents’ rights by saying, “You can’t be trusted – our court has to have jurisdiction in your country.”

    As per a recent exchange – I know that some thing that every demand of the EU is the height of reasonableness. Brexit is a “crime” – as Macron would put it – so anything short of asking us to send human sacrifices is just rational self-defence on behalf of the EU. But the views of those instinctively rally to the European flag on this issue are not very relevant, as they are not in a position to defect from the Tories. It is a matter of whether those who voted Leave, or Remain-voting Tories will see it quite the same way is another matter.

    Merkel’s recent rebuke to the UK was – as reported in the Guardian – as much aimed at Labour thinking that they could expect movement on free movement as part of the deal and their free trade objectives.

    I think it will turn out that Remain read far better how the EU would approach the negotiations – but whether this will turn into a view that the EU is a good thing is another matter.

    By the time the economic damage is done, it won’t be readily reversible – and the EU would hardly help us to reverse it. So Bregrets may well not lead to the result much of Remain still craves.

    And it will all be far too late to affect VI in this election.

  42. I think the Lib Dems will, they have no choice anyway, concentrate on the Twickenham and Dunbartonshire East seats where they have a chance. Their overall vote may not recover. I think people who are anti austerity and hard Brexit will indeed vote Labour if they are the only alternative.

  43. As i posted yesterday i gave the week to JC. he is a good on the stump and his supporters love him and his message.It polarises. When that happens the Liberals get squeezed. That is what is happening.
    Last year Labour was predicted by the experts to be in for a thrashing in the locals. it did not happen. It will not happen this time either. I think they will get t some momentum from the locals. Conversely the Tories will go up as well.

  44. “If we devoted £20 bn a year to our infrastructure instead of contributing to the EU this country would soon be transformed.”
    @s thomas April 29th, 2017 at 5:40 pm

    Ah, I can see it now [starts to dream…]

    Hello, Theresa May here, you know the scaredy cat who won’t talk to anyone who isn’t a Conservative without being surrounded by hundreds of bodyguards waving placards. Anyway, you know we are the party of good sense and economic prudence. Austerity and all that, what!

    Well I’ve another plan I’m going to share with you. We are going to spend £20bn a year on building new roads! Yes, how good is that? I understand they have some pretty good roads in Spain, and we want some too! So I have decided that when we stop throwing our money down the sewer that is the EU we will make good use of it and add two more lanes to the M25.

    Now tally ho! And don’t forget, we are the part of stability and… what was the other thing. Oh, never mind. You can trust us to do the right thing.

    Must dash. I have another crowd to hide behind. Toodle pip!

  45. I think that Tory Campaign managers may well need to tweak their strategy.

    Theresa May’s approach (walk around empty factories, speak surrounded by activists alone when the ordinary workers have gone home and not speaking much to the media) may come across perhaps distant, aloof and cold.

    I also think the repetition of certain phrases is very irritating.

    Just one view of course.

  46. S THOMAS
    If “No money , no back taxes. nothing.” means just that – no current contributions unless EU agrees to a more sensible negotiating position – then I agree on your judgement of negotiating tactics.
    Two can play hardball.

  47. The new Opinium poll has new methdology applied, It has been weighted for the first time on past vote and EU vote. Im guessing this has helped Labour and hurt the Lib dems. I cant believe Labour will hit 30% 1% less than 2015

  48. @LMXDEE

    Thanks for that.

  49. ST must not have seen all the infrastructure and projects in the UK that the EU has paid for, being that our country has got back every penny that we have paid in to the EU.

    I thought almost all voters knew that that number painted on the side of the bus was a myth. It seems not.

  50. Opinium have consistently had the LDs lower than other pollsters. Their last poll was an exception and I thought they were back in line with the rest. This may be a return to form for Opinium, or a real dip for the LDs. Other polls will show which.

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