I don’t think we’ve had any GB polls today (not doubt there will be the usual flurry for the Sunday papers tomorrow), but we did get a YouGov Scottish poll for the Times, their first of the campaign.

Topline voting intentions were SNP 41%, CON 28%, LAB 18%, LDEM 7%. At only 41% the SNP are lower than in the Survation and Panelbase polls last weekend, but YouGov also show the Conservatives doing significantly less well than that Panelbase poll that had them on 33%. If these figures were repeated at the general election then the Conservatives would take seven seats from the SNP, the Liberal Democrats would take two.

Voting intention on Scottish independence stands at YES 45%(+2), NO 55%(-2) (and that’s without 16 and 17 year olds, so reality might be slightly more pro). Asked about a second Indyref, YouGov asked both about the principle of it and the specific timing – on principle, 42% of Scots want a referendum in the next five years, 51% do not. Asked about specific timing, a referendum before Britain leaves the EU is marginally more popular than one afterwards: 37% would support a referendum once negotiations are complete but before Britain actually goes, 35% would support one after Brexit.

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56 Responses to “YouGov/Times Scottish poll”

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  1. “I cant believe Labour will hit 30% 1% less than 2015”

    Why can’t you believe it, though? Because of other opinion polls?

  2. @catman jeff

    The Stable and Strong Dear Leader was just down the road today at Crathes Village hall on Deeside. Quite a lot of murmuring among the local party faithful that they didn’t know about it and weren’t invited and wondering who did get invited and why. The booking secretary at the hall is not apparently best pleased.as they were told it was for a children’s party. So I’m not sure that May’s tactics even enthuses the local party.

  3. The ”stable and strong leadership” routine is not only getting stale it is becoming a joke. She needs to move on and put forward some positive policies or atleast hire a different scriptwriter to come up with new lines.
    It does not take much for the voting public to move from what she is saying is a joke to that she is the joke.

  4. New thread.

  5. It was a Children’s Party!!!!

    Peter.

  6. I think there is a scenario in which Brexit doesn’t happen:

    1. Talks make little headway during the first year. Even basic things are not agreed. No prospect of trade talks any time soon.
    2. Business frustration, sterling weakness, rises in inflation, falls in consumer confidence. Start of recession
    3. Polls show 70%+ of the public don’t want to leave any more, clear that there will either be no deal or any deal would not get public support anyway.
    4. EU member states are concerned about the budget and behind the scenes talks agree that if the UK holds another referendum and changes its mind we would be allowed back in
    5. 2nd referendum showing 60%+ now want to stay

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