The Standard released their first Ipsos MORI poll of the campaign today. Topline figures with changes from MORI’s last pre-campaign poll are CON 49%(+6), LAB 26%(-4), LDEM 13%(nc), UKIP 4%(-2). Like other companies there is a obvious shift towards the Conservatives and a drop for UKIP, though MORI tended to show significantly lower UKIP support than other companies to begin with, meaning there wasn’t far to fall. It seems almost redundant now to reel off the list of the records broken, but for the record it’s the biggest Tory lead MORI have shown since 2008.

Theresa May’s lead on who would make the most capable Prime Minister is now 61% to Corbyn’s 23%, the highest MORI have recorded since they began asking the question in 1979 (Thatcher hit 48% against Foot, Blair 52% against Hague).

For methodology geeks, note that Ipsos MORI are the only company still doing their voting intention polls by telephone… and that it does not presently appear to be making much difference.

Panelbase also put out their first campaign poll today. Topline figures there are very much in line with other companies, with topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 5%. Tabs are here

Finally, there was bit of a social media fuss over graphic from Clive Lewis’s campaign earlier on this morning, which originally claimed to show an ICM constituency poll for Norwich South (since corrected). Alas, this was not the case: ICM have not done a Norwich South poll.

In fact it was based upon a poll of all Labour seats ICM did for a group called Represent Us, back in January. The figures on Lewis’s graphic are a projection of what the situation might be in Norwich South given the swing amongst Remain and Leave voters in ICM’s poll (though given the unusual politics of Norwich South, with the Greens narrowly ahead of the Lib Dems, I have doubts about whether that’s a useful approach in this specific seat). But really – don’t mistake it for a poll of Norwich South, it isn’t one. Time will tell whether we see any actual constituency polls at this election.


133 Responses to “New Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. We all know that since the last election all the polling companies have changed their methodology, but given all the tables produced, is it possible to reverse engineer one of the current polls to the prior methods, to see what sort of numbers they would have predicted using 2015 methodolgy? Presumably modern polling methods tend to shift more Tory than the prior (which you would expect given that they underestimated Conservative support) – having this info might give us some idea about how much worse the Labour position really is now than it was in 2015. Would today’s 49/26 poll have been reported as 45/30 a few years ago, or would it have been even closer?

  2. @Millie

    I can hear them saying: ‘I campaigned without once mentioning Corbyn positively, he did not appear in my literature, and my supporters made it clear they were voting for me, not for Corbyn. My electorate voted for the traditional social democratic values that Labour once espoused. They did not vote for the Hard Left.

    I think that is a high prob if he does not fall on his sword immediately. I am sure there will be those on the left who will attempt to spin the result along the lines of ‘MP betrayal’ etc but an orchestrated attempt to continue on the same path by him staying on in order to hand over to his chosen successor will split the party.

  3. Sine Nomine

    Like me, CMJ is a supporter of PR. Our system is completely broken, but those that benefit from it of course do not recognise that.

    Germany seems to manage perfectly well with PR. They are also far more economically successful that us.. Angela Merkel has been Chancellor sinec 2005 continuously! Exactly how is that unstable??? Same with the Dutch, the Danish, and more or less all N European states with PR…

    If the Tories or anyone else manage to get the support of the majority of people than they get a majority of MPs… What can be more simple than obvious than that? At the moment they are close to getting that! But in Germany they believe in stable coalitions and voters know what will happen before the election if they vote for smaller parties that represent their views best

  4. Redrich, I assume that if it plays out as badly for Labour as things currently stand and JC chooses not to resign that there will be another leadership contest.

    I agree he would probably loose in that eventuality.

    I dont think a split is likely.

  5. Millie
    IIRC Labour MPs who voted against the Iraqi war did not get any credit for doing so in the subsequent GE, based on pattern of seat losses.

    I suspect local attempts to dissociate from Corbyn will have similarly minimal effect. I wonder how many of Woodcock’s constituents know he has a long and consistent record of dissing Corbyn?

    Perhaps it’s a case where it really matters how many doors candidates knock on and how good they are at persuading voters to give them a hearing?

  6. Millie,
    Well, Hard Brexit sound bad and Soft Brexit sounds good… Doesn’t really matter if people understand it.

    But the Lib Dems will campaign to stay in the Single Market, especially now Labour have made it clear they will not.

    But in a world where over 50% of people think Theresa May is competent despite her general record of failure (according to the targets she set herself) as Home Secretary, convincing teh electorate of anything will obviously be a hard ask.

    What you say is essentially what Labour have just said, and means nothing. The Lib Dems will get nowhere with that line, but have the distinctive positions of Single Market membership (ie accepting Freedom of Movement because it leads top prosperity for the country as a whole), and offering another referendum.

    No-one in the Lib Dems thinks that the majority of people currently agree with them, but a lot more than 10 % do…

  7. @MARKW

    A lot will depend on the ‘lessons’ from this election and how members of the ‘selectorate’ respond. If you listen to what voters are saying – in particular ex-Labour voters – then its clear both Corbyn his style and mix of policies are unelectable. My experience of momentum members makes me conclude they will not be persuaded by this and will continue on the same path regardless.

    Therefore, if he goes immediately his section of the PLP are likely to struggle to get a sufficient number and the moderates will regain control of the leadership. However, if he somehow stays on the ballot or one of his close allies gets on it then the momentum vote will come into play in the party election and given past experience will win. This, in my mind will split the party. Candy is right about the difficulties of setting up a new party etc – but many may feel that route is shorter than staying within the current party structure.

  8. Scottish Exceptionalism

    The SNP has called for a referendum on independence on the basis of the pro-remain scottish geographical result in the Brexit referendum. However,cross breaks in the mori poll show:

    a. That Scotland is not the most pro-remain region of the Uk. Judging it on the difference between remain and leave the most pro remain area was London (14% to 20% );
    b.Social class was almost more important than geographical region (ABC1 difference remain to leave 13% to scotland 14%);
    c.Age (18-34) is massively more important than geographical region.
    (male -44;female 37 pro remain difference)
    d. Geographical region is therefore an artificial construct in this debate. On the cross breaks it is ABC1 males from London who ought to be having a referendum
    e. Further if the situation were reversed and the UK now remained in the EU on the scottish geographical model all but London and Yorkshire of the English regions had the same or greater difference between remain and leave except in the opposite direction. Presumably on the SNP model all those regions should hold independence votes if the UK government decided to stay;
    f. Indeed Wales vote prediction on remain or leave is the mirror image of Scotland.Presumably if there is no hard Brexit wales should have a referendum to leave the UK.

    The conclusion i draw from this is that the call for a scottish referendum on the back of the brexit vote is artificial. Across the UK as a whole other factors such as age and class are more relevant than geographical region.Indeed if geographical region and a 14% disparity were the key factor almost every other region of the UK could seek to leave a UK which had decided not to bother with Brexit.

  9. Catmanjeff,

    “Campaigning not on the basis a series of polices, but on the personal characteristics of people, and using this this to say ‘give me more power’ is not how I see a representative democracy working.”

    Traditionally, it was exactly about personal characteristics, but rather those of the MP…

  10. @s thomas

    you’re missing the key point that Scotland is not a region but a country with its own democratically elected parliament

  11. Bardini

    I thought you lost the referendum. On that Criteria so is wales. Scotland voted to remain part of the UK and the people resident in scotland took part in the referendum as citizens of the UK. Scotland as a country had no “locus” in the brexit referendum. it is just a convenient way of measuring results or making political points

  12. Candy,

    “But I guess all those who regularly denigrate govts as being unrepresentative because they haven’t won the majority of the popular vote will be happy :-)”

    Not at all – “The Tories haven’t won a majority of the electorate’s vote! So it’s unrepresentative. Most people CLEARLY oppose the Tories…”

  13. The LibDems need to rack up votes in the South West and their old Scottish seats. But their Remain stance is unlikely to help in either place.

    1. The South West is not a hotbed of staunch Remainers.
    2. In their Scottish seats, they are up against the SNP, who don’t even have to pay lip service to accepting the referendum.

    If they are having a small increase, they are liable to racking up votes in places of minimal consequence to the Tories. Sure, Bath and Twickenham and a few more, but there need to big changes in the polls.

  14. @s thomas

    This is not really the place to debate the independence issue, or whether you are correct that Scotland is a region not a country – there are plenty of forums where this can be done. But just on a point of order, “I” didn’t lose the referendum, I didn’t even vote as I live in England, and have done for most of my life. Unless you mean the Brexit one where my side lost.

  15. @Bill Patrick

    :-)

  16. Politics is going to get very nasty over the coming weeks, I am sad to say.

    Let us all try to conduct ourselves in a civil manner as discourtesy and anger are no answer to the world’s problems

    As we go about the General Election, spare a thought for the peoples of Syria, South Sudan et al who would cherish the comforts we have on this island.

    The world has many problems and, for a lot of people, is a cruel, unforgiving place.

  17. It’s an interesting question when a country get swallowed up by something larger, what is it? Bavaria for example was a country until quite recently. It has a national dress, a distinct dialect and a very old parliament with lots of power. It even has its own (ex) royal family (who’s current head would be king of Scotland (and possibly the rest of the U.K. too) if the Stuart’s were to be restored), but hardly anyone considers Bavaria a country anymore.

    Within the EU it is not a coincidence that the term ‘country’ has been binned; they are all referred tor as ‘European states’, NEVER countries, which begs the question whether UK itself is even a country (currently). Within the European states, there are ‘regions’. EU regional aid is never handed out to the ‘states’ which is why Wales for example is a region and definitely not a country when it comes to subsidies. If it were a country, it would not qualify. Neither would England for that matter, or Northern Ireland or Scotland.

  18. @RedRich

    The PLP will not want to lose the Labour brand. I suspect that the PLP will elect t’s own leader and get that leader confirmed as official leader of the opposition by the Speaker. From there to keeping the Labour brand without a leadership election is a fraught path which may include the courts.

    Rather than split the party the PLP could split from the party…

  19. I believe that the fact that the national football leagues of England Scotland Wales and Ireland were created prior to the creation of FIFA has played a massive role in keeping the notion of separate nationhood alive in the uk. When ‘countries’ start to share borders and currencies and parliaments, a football (or rugby) team is pretty much all that’s left. Perhaps Bavaria would be more of a ‘country’ if it had its own football league.

  20. @ Andrew111

    “But in Germany they believe in stable coalitions and voters know what will happen before the election if they vote for smaller parties that represent their views best”

    The do know what happens. If they fail to make the 5% threshold their votes are thrown out and ignored. The FDP demonstrates the perverse result of the system. In government, and holding power in excess of its vote share from 1949 to 1998 (with the exception of 57-61) Since then, they’ve been out of power.

    Why? Their vote has remained fairly stable. The two major parties’ vote has remained fairly stable. So, what happened? The green’s vote crept over the 5% threshold and changed the dynamics of fixing the coalition. Prior to ’98 it was roughly 40-40-10 and 10% in the bin. The FDP was always in power. Post 98, it was roughly 35-35-10-10 and 10% in the bin. Suddenly there is a grand coalition and the FDP is never in power. (I’ve simplified, but this is sufficiently close to be illustrative)

    How anyone can call German PR representative, when a single vote could deliver over 20 MPs, or the loss of that vote could cause millions of votes thrown into the bin, puzzles me. Even more puzzling is the fact that there is no voter input into the most important part of the German system – the negotiations between politicians to fix the next coalition.

  21. COUPERR2802
    Hello to you; I agree that the PLP majority of the rump that is left will form a larger group than which supports Corbyn.

    The PLP split the the wider Party will take us back to the situation which existed before Tony Benn’s reforms in the Heath Years 1970-74.

  22. Re: Bavaria
    What many people fail to realise, because they view other polities through a British perspective, is that the Federal Government in Germany is quite limited by the constitution and that Germans see the Lande as being the core of government: it is not well known that the Lande are able to prevent the Federal Govt. carrying out certain actions without their approval.

  23. @COUPER2802

    In terms of the brand value and the extent to which a break away PLP would be willing to jettison it I guess would depend on the extent to which it is tarnished by this election. The numbers of voters who will vote Labour just because its Labour appears to be an ever dwindling number.

    I would think the greater concern would be funding from the unions – they would have to assume Unite would stay with the Corbyn faction, but could they persuade other unions to go with them?

  24. @Millie

    John Woodcock is sitting in a marginal constituency with a majority of 800. I will be amazed if he is still an MP after this election.

    Perhaps that’s why he’s taken such a loud anti-Corbyn line throughout…

    As for a Labour breakaway, well, others have highlighted the issues associated with forming a new party. I would like to add that I think it very unlikely they would be able to join forces with the Lib Dems. For one thing, there are stark differences in ideology between the Lib Dems and the right of the Labour Party (the latter are decidedly illiberal on issues like security). For another, such a Labour breakaway would likely outnumber the parliamentary Lib Dems heavily, so this would be less like a merger or alliance, and more like a takeover of the Liberal Democrat brand by an outside force.

    On the other hand, I could see them taking the opposite approach, where they seek to end the election of the party leader by the membership and essentially cut ties if their demands aren’t met. This could get very messy though, since the unions seem to be mostly supportive of the Corbynites. The PLP would need to find a new source of funding after the loss of membership dues and probably most union backings, whereas the unions may look to back another party (either a rump of leftwing MPs, or the Greens?).

  25. Anecdotal evidence from the pub.

    Normally at this time, in an electoral cycle down at the pub the same sort of people generally mention the same sort of views. Whether they are what you expect or otherwise. However overhearing a discussion from three guys at the bar, I found out a number of things.

    1. They all voted Labour last time.
    2. One of them intends to vote Labour this time but doesn’t think Corbyn is up to much and is doing it through gritted teeth – and might not vote at all.
    3. One of them is definitely 100% going to vote for May for a number of reasons, but mostly stemming from the idea that she will stand up to Europe and get a much better deal than Corbyn ever could.
    4. One of them is torn between voting Ukip and Voting Tory.

    Now anecdotes aside and a little bit on the polling, as a student, in a area naturally erring on the side of Labour/Green/Lib Dem ((Oxford in case anyone was wondering))

    The polls definitely fit the feeling that I have been seeing both on doorsteps and in the pub, and this is for a number of reasons not least because the narrative from the media is so strongly Conservatlive I don’t believe that Corbyn will get the traction required to overturn the deficit in the polls.

    I don’t think that the polls have started to overstate Conservative support – in essence overcompensating for the mistakes of 2015.

    I do however feel that it is very unlikely that the Conservatives will breach 50% of the vote, the toxicity associated with the Conservative party will make that very difficult indeed.

    So as a long time lurker and reader of UKPR, I think i’m also going to use my first post to make a prediction for the election – subject to change of course.

    Conservative 45-47%
    Labour 23-25%
    Lib Dem 13-20%

    Leaving the remaining 12-8% to be divided amongst Ukip/Green and SNP.

    However I don’t think the Conservative lead in the polls will necceseraily translate to the sort of landslide that Blair achieved in 1997, the reasoning being that I don’t think the financial/manpower resources available to run a campaign broad enough to swing the seats that for example electoral calculus think are likely to be gains with these sorts of voteshare.

    Bristol East for example.

    Regarding the debate on whether the Labour party might split, if Corbyn stays on… I actually think its rather more likely that a mass exodus of members occurs – those people thinking that Corbyn is the second coming and that the polls are fabrications of the Tory dominated MSM will likely desert when they realism how dire the situation is, so I see it much more likely that the side of the PLP and membership that is Pro-Corbyn actually leaves Labour as opposed to a Blairite/Moderate ((Some might say electable)) side of the Labour party may remain. Though this is all supposition.

  26. WB
    Very true.
    CYNOSARGES
    I agree. It’s turning into a bit of a mess. If you keep voting, and keep getting a grand coalition of the two main parties, sooner or later you have to ask ‘what’s the point?’

  27. Polling average by party:

    Conservatives leading by 20 points.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/857202869648412673

    In comparision, Trump was down only eight points at his low point in early August after the Democratic party convention ended.

  28. S Thomas,

    The SNP stood on a platform of calling a Referendum if needed post Brexit in the Holyrood election last May, a month before the Brexit vote.

    The SNP made that clear and campaigned on it and the other Parties were clear in opposing it. The SNP was returned as the largest Party.

    Subsequently the Scottish Parliament has debated the issue and voted in favour of holding one.

    That’s democracy.

    You might not agree with the arguments but the decision was openly discussed and then made by those the people of Scotland elected to represent them!

    Peter.

  29. @Andrew111:

    In a FPTP you at least get a governing party that some of the electorate voted for. It might not be the majority choice but it is the most popular choice.

    In PR you get a government that no one voted for; instead you get a coalition concocted by politicians behind closed doors.

    Yes, Germany may successfully produce stable governments, just as they have tended to be successful in most things for decades, but elsewhere PR produces all kinds of bizarre combinations, often with unsavoury constituents.

  30. @ Couper2802

    The PLP will not want to lose the Labour brand. I suspect that the PLP will elect t’s own leader and get that leader confirmed as official leader of the opposition by the Speaker. From there to keeping the Labour brand without a leadership election is a fraught path which may include the courts.
    —————————————————————————

    There was a lot of discussion of this prior to and after the PLP coup… and it really doesn’t seem to be very possible. They can certainly elect their own leader but it would mean losing the Labour whip and sitting as independents. They would not take the Labour name and furthermore, John Bercow said that he would not accept such a new grouping as the official opposition because they would not be registered as such with the electoral commission.

    IIRC there was a suggestion that the 29 (?) Co-op MPs could sit under the Co-operative Party banner but even that was rejected by the Co-operative Party.

    So the choice would be to sit as independents for 5y and lose the Labour name. Doubtless some constituency members might choose to break away from the LP in support of their MP but the remaining membership would operate under the LP and be entitled to pick a new PPC for the next GE.

    There was indeed some idea of going to the courts to establish ownership of the Labour name but nothing has so far materialised… and looking at the rule book, it seems a bit far fetched.

  31. Corbyn now giving May a free pass on hte TV debates, saying he won’t take part without her. Is there any decision he takes which isn’t designed to minimise the Labour vote?

    Take this morning’s radio interviews on the NHS. Instead of focussing on the appalling state of the service, Labour’s statements turned the issue into a question of “how would Labour pay for it”.

    The campaign is already turning into a shambles. There is a serious danger that we will hit a post-war low for share of vote and number of seats. I think the only thing that can avert that is if turnout is higher than expected (and modelled) in the under-40s, for whom (amazingly) Labour reproducibly show a lead in crossbreaks.

  32. Thanks for the responses.

    I had rather anticipated a ‘fix’ within Labour, as WB suggested, with a deal involving Watson and McDonnell. It could have been done.

    But the election has changed everything, and has chucked a mighty spanner in the Labour works. Anything could now happen, rather like it did post-EU Referendum.

    It might get interesting after the locals.

    @Imperium3

    Yes, Woodcock obviously realises he is ‘dead meat’, and probably thinks two things – I might as well speak my mind, and you never know, it might work!

  33. @ROBIN

    “Corbyn now giving May a free pass on hte TV debates, saying he won’t take part without her. Is there any decision he takes which isn’t designed to minimise the Labour vote?”

    I’m no admirer of Corbyn. In fact, I think he’s an idiot. However, avoiding the ‘debate’ is a sane decision on his part. The Tory lead appears impregnable, and being in a debate with Farron could only lose Labour votes. Refusing to debate without May destroys the debate (who would listen to a debate between the seven dwarves when Snow White and the evil witch are missing), so avoiding Farron taking votes from Corbyn, and still allowing Labour to claim that May’s chicken.

  34. @Cynosarges

    I think Corbyn could have insisted on an empty chair/podium as a condition of his participation. That would have focussed attention and made the debate about May’s no-show. That could only have damaged her “strong leadership” meme.

  35. It always astounds me that people are quite happy to be governed by a Party opposed by 63% of voters but if anyone from the 48% who voted Remain dares to suggest that people might have got it wrong they are publicly vilified, called unpatriotic, undemocratic and much worse.

    The day that Theresa May calls for PR is the day I will accept the result of the referendum and stop campaigning for a way back to common sense for Britain..

    Meanwhile I see all the tired old arguments against PR are being wheeled out here again. Really! If people don’t like Merkel they can vote her and any parties that support her out. Here most people live in seats where they have zero influence over the Election result. .. 5 % threshold is a bit brutal but look at FPTP which can deliver almost every seat in Scotland to the SNP?

    At the end of the day PR is about democracy and anyone who does not support it is anti-democratic! Sorry about that folks!

  36. Corbyn is scared of losing yet more votes to the Lib Dems in a debate with Farron

    Very understandable!

  37. @Syzygy

    “They would not take the Labour name and furthermore, John Bercow said that he would not accept such a new grouping as the official opposition because they would not be registered as such with the electoral commission.”

    ~~~

    This seems a bit strange to me. Surely the official opposition is whichever the largest group of MPs in Parliament is that declares itself to be so? After all, political parties don’t have much in the way of legal standing once inside the walls of Westminster.

  38. ANDREW111

    “Corbyn is scared of losing yet more votes to the Lib Dems”

    He should look on the bright side – he has third place in the bag

  39. @Robin

    “I think Corbyn could have insisted on an empty chair/podium as a condition of his participation. That would have focussed attention and made the debate about May’s no-show. That could only have damaged her “strong leadership” meme.”

    In my view JC has made a smart move. It’s pointless for him to attend and be the target of the the ire from smaller Parliamentary parties. In ant event, the Broadcasters would never have empty-chaired May.

  40. Think this idea that Labour M.P.’s will split with the Labour Party after the General Election just a little absurd. They have been there before and the lesson of history is that groups that split from the Labour Party don’t do to well. The other lesson is that Corbyn is one man, pretty much as Michael Foot was, when he went the Labour Party turned to Neil Kinnock and then Tony Blair. It is cyclical and just as Labour got rid of Militiant in the 1980’s, if Momentum are found to be acting not in the best interests of the party they will be driven out to.
    But in reality as I have said before if it is a disastrous election for Labour there will be a challenge for a new leader and I suspect a more voter acceptable candidate will win through, probably some one a lot younger witout to much political baggage.

  41. Re my post above, should of included the late John Smith between Kinnock and Blair

  42. I also think Corbyn would be right to reject the debate without May.

    It is clear that effectively all parties expect to gain from Labour’s voting base (today’s reactions from LD, SNP, PC, GRN showed), which ok, but then he would be the only target.

    So, even if this move is not a vote winner, at least it is not a vote loser.

  43. @Imperium3

    The Leader of the Opposition is a post defined by statute which also gives the Speaker discretion to decide who that is if there is any dispute about which is the largest group on the opposition benches.

  44. @SYZYGY

    Oh well that plan bites the dust

  45. MILLIE
    NEIL J
    etc

    I’d be amazed if JC resigned without an anointed left-wing heir being nominated for election by the PLP. And the rules can’t be changed before the party conference, so that seems unlikely unless an awful lot of centre left MPs lose their seats,and Corbyn supporters don’t.
    But i don’t see the likes of Chuka Umunna or Yvette Cooper leaving the labour Party either. So it’s hard to see anything other than another lengthy, messy stand-off.
    Still, most predictions are wrong and I hope to be surprised. I would dearly love to have a pragmatic centre left party to support again. And I’m sure I’m not the only one.

  46. @IMPERIUM3

    This seems a bit strange to me. Surely the official opposition is whichever the largest group of MPs in Parliament is that declares itself to be so? After all, political parties don’t have much in the way of legal standing once inside the walls of Westminster.
    ———————————————————————
    According to John Bercow, he could not recognise a group that was not registered with the electoral commission, and a break away group of MPs could not register whilst being Labour MPs.

  47. I should add that , if he stood, I think Corbyn would win again. Round here, at least, party members really love him. He has given them hope and belief, and a sense that they matter.

  48. @ Imperium3

    Here’s an interpretation according to a comment on another site:

    Ministers of the Crown Act 1937.

    ‘If the rebels won’t take the whip but remain in the Labour Party then Corbyn remains Leader of the Opposition because the Labour Party remains the second largest party. Section 10(1) includes a definition (which codifies the usual situation under the previous custom) -” “Leader of the Opposition” means that member of the House of Commons who is for the time being the leader in that House of the party in opposition to His Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in that House”.

    The Speaker can under Under section 10(3) designate the leader of a different party – and the rules quite specifically state ‘party’ – which means that:

    if the rebels don’t leave Labour, Labour remains second largest party and Corbyn remains leader of the Opposition.

    If the rebels do leave Labour but don’t form a fresh party then who so ever is bigger – rump Labour or the SNP, form the Opposition.

    If the rebels do leave Labour and form another party, registered with the Electoral Commission n time, then they will form the Opposition.

    Mind you, if the rebels continue then they will face almost certain immediate expulsion from the party anyway – which at least saves the problem of them being deselected. The only thing that remians unanswered is whether people on a 75K salary with a massive expenses entitlement, can find anything in life to behave in an even more childish way than they are already.’

  49. @PATRICKBRIAN
    I’d be amazed if JC resigned without an anointed left-wing heir being nominated for election by the PLP. And the rules can’t be changed before the party conference, so that seems unlikely unless an awful lot of centre left MPs lose their seats,and Corbyn supporters don’t.

    But of course he does not need to resign, all it needs is some one to challenge him, which they will. If the election is a disastrous for Labour as some think I cannot see him getting re-elected and under the present Leadership election rules there is unlikely to be a candidate as left as he was.
    So chances are the next Leader will be more akin to Milliband in terms of his politics than Corbyn.

  50. @NeilJ

    ‘But of course he does not need to resign, all it needs is some one to challenge him, which they will. If the election is a disastrous for Labour as some think I cannot see him getting re-elected and under the present Leadership election rules there is unlikely to be a candidate as left as he was.
    So chances are the next Leader will be more akin to Milliband in terms of his politics than Corbyn.’

    The optimal outcome for Labour would be for Corbyn to quit and a compromise leader to be found to start rebuilding the party. However Corbyn won’t as in a political sense he is fundamentalist true believer in the ’cause’, as are many of his supporters. If he stands again he will win – if they change the rules and his anointed successor is on the ballot they will win.

    This would mean Labour has made itself un-electable for the 15-20 years. Faced with that the anti-Corbyn MP’s will really have nothing to lose, so why stay flogging a dead horse?

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