The Standard released their first Ipsos MORI poll of the campaign today. Topline figures with changes from MORI’s last pre-campaign poll are CON 49%(+6), LAB 26%(-4), LDEM 13%(nc), UKIP 4%(-2). Like other companies there is a obvious shift towards the Conservatives and a drop for UKIP, though MORI tended to show significantly lower UKIP support than other companies to begin with, meaning there wasn’t far to fall. It seems almost redundant now to reel off the list of the records broken, but for the record it’s the biggest Tory lead MORI have shown since 2008.

Theresa May’s lead on who would make the most capable Prime Minister is now 61% to Corbyn’s 23%, the highest MORI have recorded since they began asking the question in 1979 (Thatcher hit 48% against Foot, Blair 52% against Hague).

For methodology geeks, note that Ipsos MORI are the only company still doing their voting intention polls by telephone… and that it does not presently appear to be making much difference.

Panelbase also put out their first campaign poll today. Topline figures there are very much in line with other companies, with topline figures of CON 49%, LAB 27%, LD 10%, UKIP 5%. Tabs are here

Finally, there was bit of a social media fuss over graphic from Clive Lewis’s campaign earlier on this morning, which originally claimed to show an ICM constituency poll for Norwich South (since corrected). Alas, this was not the case: ICM have not done a Norwich South poll.

In fact it was based upon a poll of all Labour seats ICM did for a group called Represent Us, back in January. The figures on Lewis’s graphic are a projection of what the situation might be in Norwich South given the swing amongst Remain and Leave voters in ICM’s poll (though given the unusual politics of Norwich South, with the Greens narrowly ahead of the Lib Dems, I have doubts about whether that’s a useful approach in this specific seat). But really – don’t mistake it for a poll of Norwich South, it isn’t one. Time will tell whether we see any actual constituency polls at this election.


133 Responses to “New Ipsos MORI and Panelbase polls”

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  1. first? labour in deep do do… looking like a rout.

  2. Devastating polling for Labour – just how low can they get ?
    The polling for the Tories is quite astounding – looking like the opposition will be even worse than now – not good for our democracy indeed but it’s still interesting to watch of course but I’m sure very painful if you are Labour !

  3. Sure is, but I fear for the world too at present. That seems even worse.
    I fear bigger military conflicts are likely on the world stage.

  4. Markw

    Well if JC is the answer to these conflicts then i think we might be asking the
    wrong question:-)

  5. Mornning all from a chilly PSRL

    @Peter Crawford

    ‘labour in deep do do… looking like a rout’

    Did anyone really expect anything else with Corbyn as leader of Labour?

    I guess I’m not alone in thinking that the polls are probably overstating Tory VI and understating that for the LD’s, but to what extent?

    Its getting really hard to envisage any probable scenario for this election that doesn’t end in a Tory landslide.

  6. Labour supporters need to keep the faith.

    Hope is key.

    A long way still to go in this election.

    Always believe better times lie ahead.

  7. S thomas, I didn’t suggest JC was the answer. It is Donald Trump who causes my existential dread.

    As you bring it up, JC has a strong record of working for peaceful solutions to conflicts but I dont think the Donald is listening to anyone much.

  8. Jeremy is a very reasonable man – he just needs to cut through to the British public.

    Alas, at the moment, I feel the British are in one of their “buggeration” moods.

    It’s all blitz spirit and “very well alone”. The press seems to whip this up and therefore, it’s difficult to get Jeremy;s message across.

    He can but fight the good fight.

  9. I have no dog in this fight, but the scale of shift of power that looks like heading for Theresa May makes me personally very uncomfortable.

    Campaigning not on the basis a series of polices, but on the personal characteristics of people, and using this this to say ‘give me more power’ is not how I see a representative democracy working.

    Checks and balances are vey important, and I don’t imagine too many of these being in place after the election.

    The whole nature and process of this election confirms to me that an electoral system that can make such dominance possible must be reformed.

    I really have a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach when thinking about it. To quote Star Wars “I have a bad feeling about this”.

  10. @Rudyard

    Are you Jon Lansman in disguise? ;-)

  11. I ran the poll numbers on this site and it gave

    Labour 155
    Tory 420
    Liberal Democrat 10
    SNP 43
    UKIP 0
    Others 22 (1 Green, the rest Northern Ireland parties.)

    Parliament will be a Conservative poodle for the next few years at least.

  12. I’ve always thought that the baseline level for Labour support was about 25%. There doesn’t appear for there to be much more room for them to fall.

    If it does drop further PC’s deep do do comment may well prove to be something of an understatement.

  13. “Theresa May’s lead on who would make the most capable Prime Minister is now 61% to Corbyn’s 23%,”
    Mrs May’s record high presumably depends on Corbyn being low?
    Is Corbyn the lowest ever official opposition party leader?

    @CATMANJEFF “an electoral system that can make such dominance possible must be reformed.” It’s hardly the fault of the electoral system if a major party commits suicide.

  14. Thomas

    The figures don’t allow for both tactical voting and local variances. I can see the LD’s taking more than 10 seats, and taking them off of both Labour and the Tories.

    But unless some drastic happens the large majority you predict is very much on the cards

  15. @Catmanjeff

    I’ve got to agree with Dave that such a landslide result would be down to voters’ choice rather than the electoral system.

    Furthermore there is a good chance that Tory dominance of the House will fall apart at the next (post-Brexit) election, since much of their current support is essentially “borrowed” from Leave voters who want to ensure Brexit happens. That of course will depend on how the left picks itself up from the coming defeat, and on “Events, dear boy, events!”

  16. JOHNCT10

    I tend to agree with your last post. I also think the LD’s will do better than the national polls suggest but at the moment not enough to stop a large Tory majority.

  17. @Thomas

    Is there enough room on one side of the house to sit 420 MP’s (serious question).

  18. REDRICH

    You may be right in saying that the polls are overstating Conservative support.

    On the other hand they may be understating it.

  19. It is looking a serious possibility the Tories could poll over 50 percent. Has that happened before?

    If, as looks inevitable, there is a landslide, it would probably be more palatable if this happens as , for once, the majority would tyrannise the minority rather than the other way around. . .

  20. (Splitting post in two because of moderation. Sorry Anthony.)

    I’d be astounded if polling weren’t understating Labour support.
    That said, worth considering that in the last two elections Labour only managed 29.9% and 30.9% respectively.

    30% (which a small over-correction towards Conservatives gives us) wouldn’t be in any sense a disaster – except insofar as the Lib Dems and UKIP have bled to the Conservatives.

  21. On the subject of LD support, interesting to see that the bookies expect them to take about 25 seats.

  22. Thought Corbyn did better than May on-air. As the Guardian says, “conventional wisdom has it that you cannot repeat these slogans too often (although May seems to be testing that theory to destruction)”.

    If she keeps this up I’ll be shocked if she retains public trust. People don’t like to know they’re being manipulated.

  23. @Thomas

    You can’t use a uniform swing the Tories are actually doing even better in England & Wales as the Scottish crossbreak is SNP 46 Tories 26

    Which would give SNP 54 and Cons 4

    You should take the E&Wales % which would possible give Cons a bigger majority.

  24. @Kester Leek

    Thought Corbyn did better than May on-air. As the Guardian says, “conventional wisdom has it that you cannot repeat these slogans too often (although May seems to be testing that theory to destruction)”.

    Well all of the Tory’s I have heard recently have banged the same line – and they are being very disciplined atm (reminiscent of Labour in ’97). Seems to be working for them.

    @David West

    ‘You may be right in saying that the polls are overstating Conservative support.

    On the other hand they may be understating it.’

    Given the current situation both are definitely within the bounds of probability – but former more likely IMO.

  25. @REDRICH

    Quite. But we’re barely a week into the campaigning. Another six weeks of this and I would hope to see people wonder why she’s saying little else.

  26. Ding dong the witch is back will be making a revival very shortly.

  27. I suspect that there will be a reaction against a landslide, so I anticipate a modest decline in the Conservative vote, probably in the last two or three days. This happened in 1983 to the Tories and in 1997 to Labour.

    Probably this reflects the public accepting that the outcome of the election is a foregone conclusion. Inevitably this reduces the incentive to vote Tory – what is the point, except to increase their hubris and sense of superiority ( many would suggest they have that in abundance anyway )?

    In this new atmosphere, an enormous number of factors then come into play, that would otherwise be discounted for fear of affecting the result. Voters will be ‘free’ to pursue other agendas. These might include local issues, personal perceptions of individual candidates, a desire to send all kinds of messages to the victorious side. In this election, there might be a significant desire amongst Labour supporters to put Corbyn to the sword, and bring about a change of leadership or a realignment of the centre/left.

    My point is that the decision-making behind voter choice may change significantly once the outcome is effectively already known. If I were Farron I would already be shaping my campaign in anticipation of that moment. I would start every speech with ‘It looks very likely that the Tories are going to win easily…’

  28. Catmanjeff’s point, which I agree with entirely, is that when on 48% in the opinion polls THE TORIES SHOULD NOT BE HEADING FOR A MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT.

    Sorry to shout.. It is just that people don’t seem to follow simple %

  29. Millie I agree Farron on every occasion should state that the Tories are going to win easily which is the truth.

  30. Millie,

    yes, I agree, and I think the Lib Dems will go that way. He will hope that the 30% of people who still deeply resent the result of the referendum will feel liberated from traditional loyalties by the prospect of a landslide..

    It is unlikely to give the Lib Dems many Tory seats outside London, but I would be keeping my eye on some Labour seats that might go Lib Dem in the way Tory seats did in 1997

  31. Any thoughts on why the Survation polling is so out of kilter with other companies?

    I’m more inclined to agree with their estimates; but I know this is just my bias showing.

  32. Additionally, does anybody know top-of-head which company was least-wrong in 2015? (Aware methodologies have changed significantly.)

  33. Morfsky – “It is looking a serious possibility the Tories could poll over 50 percent. Has that happened before? ”

    Since universal franchise, just once in 1931 when they got 55.5%. But they were running as the National Conservatives, and lots of National Liberals didn’t run against them. (The Liberals split into National Liberals, Liberals and Independent Liberals, and of course there was Labour in the mix too).

    After that the results were as follows:

    Baldwin got 47.8% in 1931
    Attlee got 47.7% in 1945
    Attlee got 46.1% in 1950
    Churchill got 48% in 1951 (with Lab on 48.8%)
    Eden got 49.7% in 1955
    Macmillan got 49.4% in 1959

    But those were three-party races with the Liberals struggling to get over 10% of the vote.

    It would be unprecedented to pull it off in a seven party system (Con, Lab, LD, SNP, PC, Green, UKIP).

    But I guess all those who regularly denigrate govts as being unrepresentative because they haven’t won the majority of the popular vote will be happy :-)

  34. I was struck by May’s attitude at PMQs today. She thundered on about “A vote for ME is for strong and stable government, a vote for HIM is a recipe for chaos” or words to that effect. It seemed that she is almost trying to turn the election into a presidential race. I know that perceptions of the leaders are and always were important, but it just seemed a bit arrogant.

    Will this perceived arrogance seep through to the voters and affect VI? Probably not, but you never know.

  35. If I was Farron I would also be talking a lot about “u-turn May”

    Single Market, Heathrow, NI contributions, election date.. Does she EVER mean what she says?? Well Brexit means Brexit I guess!

    It is very very hard to know what Theresa May really intends but I think the test of “what benefits Theresa May 1st and the Tory Party (if led by Theresa May) 2nd” is the most useful…

    Tory Party donors are very important to that aim, and I think it is quite probable that a lengthy “transition deal” of single market membership that will greatly upset the Kippers about to vote Tory is quite possible. But of course that is not what she is saying now…

    A good example of an EU transition deal is this one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_rebate
    Renewed every 7 years…

  36. There appears to be a lot of people who think that Corbyn will carry on in the event of an overwhelming defeat. He may well stay in place at least until the rule changes in September.

    So what happens if his party is reduced to 140 seats, and the LibDems get to 25 seats with a similar percentage of the vote, around 20%?

    It will surely be tempting for 60 members of the PLP, faced with Corbynite dominance of the Party for years to come, and probably deselection, to join with the LDs to create a new group in Parliament and became the official Opposition.

    I can hear them saying: ‘I campaigned without once mentioning Corbyn positively, he did not appear in my literature, and my supporters made it clear they were voting for me, not for Corbyn. My electorate voted for the traditional social democratic values that Labour once espoused. They did not vote for the Hard Left.’

    John Woodcock has effectively taken this stance and it will be most interesting to see how he fares.

  37. The sense I get from the doorstep suggests that this election will show solid Labour support where there is a real presence in the area. Our significant activist base must surely count for something? We should be able to mobilise our support as well as anyone.

    Will there be an underdog factor kicking in at some point?

  38. Millie – “It will surely be tempting for 60 members of the PLP, faced with Corbynite dominance of the Party for years to come, and probably deselection, to join with the LDs to create a new group in Parliament and became the official Opposition. ”

    I expect they have thought about this already – many would have wondered last year whether that was a better option than challenging Corbyn to his second leadership election.

    The issue is who gets to call themselves “Labour”. The brand still has a level of affection attached to it, and still has some tribal voters.

    When Lloyd George split the Liberals, he struggled to get traction for his “Independent Liberals”. That was probably down to brand name – most voters would not have been following politics closely and probably had no idea who the Independent Liberals were.

    The breakaway group would need to build up a grass-roots support from scratch, and that would be hard – after all we saw in two leadership elections that they failed to persuade the public to join and help them in their fight against Corbyn. Lab’s problems are deeper than Corbyn – the anti-Corbynites arn’t enthusing anyone either.

  39. I would expect if the Labour Party gets as well beaten as polls are predicting, Corbyn will either resign or more likely there will be a leadership challenge. In that case I cannot see Corbyn pulling off another win. Many Labour Party members may feel loyallty to him but am sure many more, including the Unions, will be looking elsewhere, thinking we gave him a go but it didn’t work.

  40. Candy,

    National Liberals, actually…. A lesson for Liberal leaders who go into coalition with the Tories which sadly was not learned well..

    I don’t think there is the slightest chance that 50 Labour MPs would join the Lib Dems, if you scenario happened. They would try to form SDP mark 2, but would more likely try to replace the Lib Dems rather than ally with them.

  41. @Candy

    Yes, I think that you are right – the idea must have been discussed, and branding is key. The Centre Left Party??

    And a plausible leader without baggage.

    It is all desperately difficult, but they are desperate.

    Quite a few might just join the LDs especially where the LDs have come a close second in the constituency. In which case a by-election might not be much of a risk.

    I am quite certain that if Corbyn stays in charge, there will be defections and/or (even more) open warfare.

  42. @MILLIE”Probably this reflects the public accepting that the outcome of the election is a foregone conclusion. Inevitably this reduces the incentive to vote Tory”
    Inevitably? Have you heard of the phrase ‘jumping on a bandwagon’?

    @NEILJ and if well beaten in the polls happens locally on 4th May?

  43. Anyway, one feature of the polls that Anthony does not mention for some reason is that the Lib Dems are up 4% in the Panelbase poll as the last of the companies that had them down below 10% comes into line with the rest.

    Since the others including Mori do not show any significant increase then this is more likely to reflect rubbish methodology by Panelbase and Opinium than any real shift in opinion. But the Lib Dems will be able to point to a gradual increase in the Britain Elects poll of polls

  44. Have enjoyed this website for several years, but never posted before;-) …………. could Anthony do a study comparing what the polls said at “50 days out” , compared to percentages on actual polling day. ………….. or is there a link, to where such a study has been done before?………… good luck everybody.

  45. DAVE
    @NEILJ and if well beaten in the polls happens locally on 4th May?

    I suspect regardless of what happens on May4th Corbyn will carry on and it would be too late to arrange and complete a leadership election by then, even if they could who would want to take over in those circumstances.
    But if they have a similar bad result in the General Election then I think he is toast. At the very least there will be a leadership id before anyone thinks of starting a new party. I just cannot see Corbyn being third time lucky in those circumstances.

  46. I have a feeling the 4th May will prove much better for theTories than predicted by Rallings and Thrasher, much worse for the Lib Dems (small gains at best), and absolute disaster for Labour.

    These local elections are not entirely immune from the national polls…..

  47. @Andrew

    As you are active in the LDs perhaps you could explain to Farron that 80% of the electorate do not know the difference between a hard and soft Brexit. The other 20% are arguing about it.

    So talking about hard and soft Brexits as if it matters is pretty pointless. Far better to say: ‘If you voted Remain, vote for us. We can’t turn back the clock, and Brexit will happen, but we will fight for the constructive and friendly relationship with Europe that we know you want.’

    People know whether they voted Leave or Remain. They don’t understand the technicalities of soft and hard Brexits.

  48. @Andrew111 – In our FPTP system why wouldn’t the Tories be heading for a huge majority with 48% of the vote – that’s how our system works.
    Blair got a huge majority in 1997 on a smaller figure so why not the Tories ?
    I presume you mean under a different system they wouldn’t get a majority – in that case nobody would which is why our present system gives us majority and workable governments whereas any other system we would have a continuous concocted coalitions – no thanks ????

  49. @Millie

    I think the Lab people will try to stick it out and win back control of their party rather than split.

    If Lloyd George, the man who introduced state pensions, couldn’t persuade voters to follow him to his new party, what hope does some nonentity from Lab have to pull it off?

    Of course new political parties do get traction, but it takes decades. UKIP was invented in the 1990s (by a Liberal!). Lab was invented in 1901 and it took them till 1923 to make a breakthrough. The SNP was invented in the 1930’s but didn’t break through till this century.

    Any new party would be facing a minimum of two decades to break through, which takes them to 2037.

    It would be so much easier for them to have the mother of all barneys and force the Corbynites out of Lab.

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