YouGov have put out their first Welsh poll of the campaign, conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures, with changes from the previous YouGov Wales poll in January, are CON 40%(+12), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 8%(-1), Plaid 13%(nc), UKIP 6%(-7). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday last week.

These are, it’s fair to say, fairly startling figures. A twelve point increase for a party over a relatively short length of time is extremely unusual, but the direction of travel is the same as Britain as a whole. GB polls had the Tories around forty percent at the start of the year, and have them pushing towards fifty percent now. As in Britain as a whole, the reason seems to be largely the UKIP vote collapsing decisely towards the Tories.

The result is remarkable though because of Wales’ history – it is a Labour heartland, even more so than Scotland was before the SNP landslide. Wales has been consistently won by Labour since the 1930s. The only time the Tories have won Wales in modern political times is the 2009 European elections.

If these shares are repeated at a general election then on a uniform swing the Conservatives would gain 10 seats (taking them to 21, an overall majority of the seats in Wales), Labour would lose 10, there would be no change for the Lib Dems or Plaid. The Tory gains would be much of North East Wales, including Wrexham, both the Newport seats and two Cardiff seats, pushing Labour back to little more than the South Wales valleys.

Roger Scully’s write up is here.

There was also a new ICM poll for the Guardian out earlier today, with fieldwork conducted between Friday-Monday. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 27%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%, GRN 3% – full tabs are here.


206 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll – CON 40, LAB 30, LD 8, Plaid 13, UKIP 6”

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  1. Candy,

    I would have thought external polling would be quite sufficient to convince Sturgeon that things are not going as well for her in Scotland this time…

  2. O.K this is purely anecdotal but never the less a sample of real world intentions whilst out the other night with some friends the inevitable subject of the general election and voting intentions crop up . After much discussion I reluctantly came to the conclusion that as a anti Corbyn labourite who desperately wants to see the back of him but has no issue with the defending labour m.p who was a remainer and thou initially a Corbyn defender has distance themselves from him since the referendum and has a somewhat vulnerable looking 7000 majority to defend my vote, among my immediate family all labour 2015 voters there has appeared to be a collective decision not to vote this time, one friend a life long labour supporter is seriously disillusioned with Corbyn but said he would vote labour has he falls into a ultra safe tory seats and knows is vote doesn’t count but amongst his family all previous labour supporters his wife will not vote , his father a labour voter since 1987 but a thatcher voter in 1979/ 83 will revert to the tories as he likes may , his mother a life long labour supporter will abstain , his brother and sister in law will change there vote from labour to lib-dem , another friend who voted brexit will cross over from labour to conservative , another friend and his wife intend to transfer there vote from labour to the lib-dems.

  3. “Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £20.0 billion to £52.0 billion in the financial year ending March 2017 (April 2016 to March 2017), compared with the financial year ending March 2016; this is the lowest net borrowing since the financial year ending March 2008.
    The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast that public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) would be £51.7 billion during the financial year ending March 2017.

    ONS

  4. COLIN

    Thank’s for the ONS figures, I had missed those.

  5. It seems that all parties but one has a rebuttal unit.

    No reward for guessing the exception.

  6. Some interesting comment on the TNS poll from a reasoned pro-independence blogger and its approach to weighting:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/drama-as-no-friendly-tns-poll-finds.html

  7. Not sure anecdotal evidence is very compelling. I have a different experience. I am Labour and will always vote Labour but my family is Tory and always has been. Several friends who are borderline Tories and voted Conservative last time are really worried about a Landslide for May and wont vote conservative this time. Whether they will vote Labour I don’t know.

  8. What still amazes me is that Corbyn keeps saying he “wants a fair and equal society” and believes it’s an no brainer and it is what every single person wants. WRONG!

  9. Living standards falling, a crisis in the NHS and social care, school crisis. IMO the real reason the Tories are doing so well is Corbyn. It’s actually quiet frightening how poor he and his team is, bar Starmer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/25/brexit-economy-living-standards-are-falling-as-the-snap-election-looms

  10. Pete
    The last two paragraphs of the report you linked to say
    “Compared with economists’ forecasts, there was a worse-than-expected performance in three of the eight categories. Two were better than expected, with three as forecast.

    Stock markets remain near record highs and the pound has been given a fillip by news of the election, with investors predicting the result will strengthen May’s position in Brexit negotiations with her EU counterparts. ”

    It doesn’t sound too gloomy to me.

  11. Hi Hireton

    You can understand what that article is saying?

    Can you explain it to me?

  12. “[1] It’s always worth bearing in mind that, for many in England, the terms England, Britain and UK are synonymous – which they aren’t among Scots, NI or (perhaps some) Welsh folk.”
    @oldnat April 24th, 2017 at 10:36 pm

    And also that the economies of Canada, Australia and New Zealand are large enough to counterbalance the rest of the world.

  13. Good afternoon all from a cloudy PSRL.

    @Marco Flynn

    My anecdotal evidence is painting a similar picture – although with some dyed in the wool Labour voters considering green as they don’t want to be seen as condoning Corbyn.

    General dynamic appears to be for trad Labour voters who are pro-Brexit its the main determinant of voting intention and it will over come any concerns/arguments about trusting May/NHS/Schools etc. There is no evidence of a corresponding shift in Tory remain voters willing to allow their views on Brexit to override their views on other issues, such as economic management in determining their vote.

    A large section of Lab voters/supporters are completely demoralised – and having written off any chance of winning see the only silver lining being Corbyn’s removal and therefore calculate best to abstain/ or vote for another centre left party. The extent to which some of these will actually return to fold in the privacy of the ballot box in unclear, and as many are likely to be of the opinion that better an ineffective Labour PM than any Tory you would expect some of them do so. This points to it being unlikely that Lab will get into the upper 20ies in terms of vote share.

  14. ‘What still amazes me is that Corbyn keeps saying he “wants a fair and equal society” and believes it’s an no brainer and it is what every single person wants. WRONG!’

    A ‘fair and equal society’ has no real substantive meaning, because the words ‘fair’ and ‘equal’ mean completely different things to different people.

  15. Okay if we are going for anecdotal I have to report a large number of my freinds, aquaintances and family are either voting Liberal for the first time or returning to them after they felt betrayed by them. Many of them voted remain and were consrervative voters but also some of them were Labour voters and feel they cannot vote for Labour either because of their unclear stand over Brexit or the Corbyn factor.

    That is why I think the polling reports of 10-11% are way off, but time will tell.

  16. Via Britain elects:

    “Westminster VI:

    CON: 46% (+7)
    LAB: 24% (-2)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 8% (-3)
    GRN: 4% (-3)

    (via Kantar TNS / 20 – 24 Apr)
    Chgs. w/ Aug 2016”

  17. @Robin @RMJ1 @Colin

    Equality of opportunity was a bit of a Blairite invention as long as the disadvantaged have the opportunity to go to private schools, private schools are OK.

    Equality of outcome is more associated with left wing and social democratic societies. For example closing the educational attainment gap is an example of equality of outcome. It is a policy pursued (with limited success so far) by the Scottish government. If the goal is equality of outcome then the state must intervene to advantage the disadvantaged. I would say that is left wing thinking.

    The problem with ‘fairness’ is it is very subjective and people are easily manipulated to believe others are being treated better than them ie ‘the immigrants are getting the best houses’. I don’t think the Right pursue fairness but rather use ‘unfairness’ to advance the Right’s agenda

  18. @MACTAVISH

    Thanks for that.

    Not sure if this has been mentioned but Corbyn is likely to squeeze the Green vote as their beliefs are quite similar.

    It’s quite possible that Lucas could be threatened by losing votes to an improved Lib Dem showing and to Corbyn.

    That could allow the Tories to possibly win Brighton Pavilion

  19. On equality/fairness: Anatole France

    “La majestueuse égalité des lois, qui interdit au riche comme au pauvre de coucher sous les ponts, de mendier dans les rues et de voler du pain.”

    or “In its majestic equality, the law forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, beg in the streets and steal loaves of bread.”

  20. I know you have always said never to read too much into one poll.

    That said, if accurate, this would be the single most startling poll I can ever remember. I more or less believed the SNP landslide when I saw it (there were a few Lib Dem and Labour seats I was stunned to see fall, but I believed SNP 2015 would take more seats than Labour 2010). However I really struggle to believe this one. Will refrain from making predictions given that it’s simply ignorant to make predictions on gut feeling whilst completely disregarding the data available, but will be fascinated to see how this pans out.

  21. Mactavish
    That’s yet another poll confirming the pattern, but is that a new low for Labour?

  22. @Coups

    “If the goal is equality of outcome then the state must intervene to advantage the disadvantaged. I would say that is left wing thinking.”

    ———-

    According to rightward peeps, that never happens though. Instead, you only hold back the advantaged, while the disadvantaged are never assisted to help them catch up. It is inevitably unfair because it’s always levelling down, not levelling up. No one knows why…

  23. “A ‘fair and equal society’ has no real substantive meaning, because the words ‘fair’ and ‘equal’ mean completely different things to different people.”

    ———–

    Precisely why we discuss such things, to home in on summat that most can accept. (Excepting autocorrect, which is impossible to appease, natch…)

  24. @Pete B

    No Corbyn managed 23% a week or so ago. 22% is the new target.

  25. :-)

  26. Neil maybe Tim Farrons thoughts on Gay issues do not sit well with many who are socially liberal.

  27. @Sea Change

    No Corbyn managed 23% a week or so ago. 22% is the new target

    You really are enjoying this aren’t you? ;-)

  28. Ukip were on 22% in 2015, so Corbyn’s 22% target might be rounded down on actual ballot box count to 12%. In fact if he behabves reasonably, if May blows it by hubris and refusal to dbate on tv, then he might do Ed Miliband territory in England and maybe Wales. Fascinating contest this time.

  29. Where have the Labour voters gone?

  30. Hireton

    i am surprised that you link to that site in your post of 2:44.

    A look at the comments section shows that members of the racist mentally challenged community have bought a group ticket. I cannot believe that you contribute to it.

    It paints a very unattractive picture of Scotland

  31. @Redrich
    You used to say P(S)RL: now you say PSRL but your posts suggest we are heading for the PTHL (Plutocrats’ Tory Hegemony of London)

    My anecdotes come more from the doorstep and so far I have found very few switchers except between L and DK/WV

    Lab have no chance at the national level but as I’ve said before I think we have an outside chance in this marginal constituency on the basis that because Corbyn has no chance there’s no risk supporting our extremely hard working and popular local MP, who was strongly remain and is now very much for a softer Brexit. Not clear whether the greens will bother standing, which would help, LD are lacklustre. Let’s hope we get a strong Kipper (not very likely, I know)

  32. Evening all from Bournemouth East. I hope no rules of bias apply when I say I think that the Tories have a good chance of retaining this seat on June 8.

    Graham will check this I hope and expect, but I think that Feb 28 1974 GE is the only GE in my life time (born May 1955) when Tories performed worse than the polls suggest and went backwards in terms of popular vote during the campaign, as measured by polls.

    I think Tories lost ground during the 1951 campaign,

  33. @woody

    Essentially that in weighting the their sample TNS have done two things which may lead to the No vote being reduced disproportionately: firstly, in its apparently unusual treatment of did note/cannot recall 2016 vote respondents and in its down weighting of those who said they voted SNP. This could explain why it is so different from three other recent polls which have found no significant change.

  34. Hireton

    OOh touchy touchy.

    still i feel your pain at polling suggesting that all is not well in the Scots Nat camp.as you know all political careers end in failure but for some we wish it would happen quicker than for others.
    The scots Nats must be concerned that TM gives the scots tories all the back up and resources they need to kill 2 birds with one stone

  35. As others have noted when talking with friends in their village/towns or local pub, I too have found the same.

    When at my local Conservative Club last night I could not find one person that was willing to vote for Corbyn, he is doomed.

  36. HIRETON

    Ms Thomas’ response seems to confirm your theory.

  37. He certainly is Bob ,however which previous labour did they like in the conservative club ?

  38. David Cameron?

  39. Bluebob
    Nice.

    According to the polls, the swing in Wales seems to be largely due to direct switching from GE15 Labour to Conservative, and to a lesser extent to the LDs.
    But in England there seems to be very little direct switching. Con gains seem to be from GE15 UKIP. Relatively small Lab falls go mainly to LDs.

  40. @Colin
    @Couper
    @carfrew
    & others

    Fairness is only a part of the picture when it comes to looking at inequality.

    The culprit when it comes to life chances, length of life and and quality of health enjoyed seems to be cortisol.

    Susan Everson studied the effects of hopelessness on depressed Finnish men.She found that the more depressed from the group were more likely to suffer greater carotid artery thickening than the less depressed. She surmised that cortisol was the actor.

    A longitudinal study in Harvard looked at the effects of “toxic” stress on the development of children. Toxic stress arose from dysfunctional families, abuse, the effects of accumulated economic hardship. The effects of chronic stress persisted into adult life affecting physical and mental health as well as life chances.

    Michael Marmot studied civil servants in Westminster. Within the groups examined, Marmot found the “social gradient”. The higher ranked (and better paid) civil servants lived longer and had better health than those of lower grades. Men in the lowest grades – messengers, doormen – were 3 times more likely to die of a heart attack than those in the highest -administrative – grade

    High blood pressure at work was associated with job stress – lack of clarity, lack of skill utilization, tension . The higher blood pressure among the lowest grades was found to be related to the highest job stress scores.

    Marmot has written about the importance of health inequalities in the Guardian. It is worth a read.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/sep/11/health-inequality-affects-us-all-michael-marmot

  41. @ChrisLane

    ‘Graham will check this I hope and expect, but I think that Feb 28 1974 GE is the only GE in my life time (born May 1955) when Tories performed worse than the polls suggest and went backwards in terms of popular vote during the campaign, as measured by polls.
    I think Tories lost ground during the 1951 campaign,’

    In 1983, the last poll before the election as called was 45% for the Tories, the first after it was called was 49%, the end result was 43%.

    Other than that, I think you are right…

  42. Chrislane
    The Tory share of the vote also fell in the course of the 1983 election with some polls putting them over 50% . They ended up on 43.5%.The 1987 campaign did show Tory leads as high as 18% and 14% in the first few days compared with the final result of a lead of 11.8%.
    There is also clear evidence from postwar elections that massive poll leads for any party fail to fully materialise as exemplified by – 2001 – 1997 – 1983 – 1966 . Some might also add Oct 1974 to that list.
    Perhaps worth mentioning that this is the first ‘snap’ election since February 1974. It will also be the longest campaign period – 7 weeks -since the advent of universal suffrage. Both 1974 elections were limited to a 3 week campaign. In some ways, therefore, we are in uncharted territory.

  43. Neil Wilson
    “The government has an infinite amount of money. It owns the Bank of England. It has the authority to command the resources of the nation for the public good. ”
    Money is only infinite in amount if the currency can be devalued without limit.
    The resources of the nation are not infinite.
    “Which is incidentally how we fight wars (notice nobody worries about money when there is a war to fight). ” You should read Churchill’s history of the Second World War, and consider the exchange of West Indian naval bases for 50 obsolete destroyers (UK unable to buy and so needing to barter) and what Lend Lease did for the UK and US economies.

  44. @Sam

    If you read stuff like The Spirit Level, then there are indications that the stress resulting from inequality can even affect those at the top of the economic pile as they have to increasingly wall themselves away in their rich ghettos.

    There is also the question of what is economically advantageous. If you have some duffers like me getting plucked out of the council estate school and given enhanced opportunities at public school while other talented pupils at the same school on the estate didn’t receive similar opportunities and might not get to contribute all they could.

    Still, at least I wasn’t one of the oh-so-fairly remunerated banksters who earned squillions for taking down the economy. Fairness abounds under capitalism and the wondrous market mechanism!!! Ask any paramedic, saving lives daily, yet struggling to survive in London, while others earn a mint for fleecing the vulnerable…

  45. “What still amazes me is that Corbyn keeps saying he “wants a fair and equal society” and believes it’s an no brainer and it is what every single person wants. WRONG!”

    My point is I want to study hard work hard, be rewarded for calculated risks in business and end up with a better standard of living than someone who does’t.

    The time may come when I need help and support but I don’t aspire to need it. That goes double for my kids.

  46. For those who somehow haven’t encountered the Spirit Level and thus have missed out on the lively debates that have resulted about the net, here’s a handy graphic to chew over

    http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2009/03/13/inequality.pdf

  47. Neil Wilson
    On your second point: should “scarce doctors and scarce teachers” (trained at public expense?) be compelled to work in the public sector, and forbidden to seek employment privately, or going to work abroad? That would shield them from the immorality of offering their services either to the highest bidder or to those offering better working conditions than the state sector.
    Of course, if the government does have an infinite amount of money, it could easily match in the state system whatever was on offer in the private health and education sectors, without increasing taxes – or at least compensating those subject to tax increases with a variety of government grants and subsidies.

  48. “My point is I want to study hard work hard, be rewarded for calculated risks in business and end up with a better standard of living than someone who doesn’t”

    ———–

    Most people get that. The problem is…

    – it’s possible to earn a lot while contributing V. little, or even making things worse…

    – Even if you earn a lot of money by actually doing summat worthwhile, the money confers advantage.

    You will then be in a position to keep your position at the top of the pile, regardless of further merit, while even holding back others who would have contributed. Whether it’s securing preferential education, healthcare etc., or behaving anti-competitively towards business rivals. And then undeserving offspring use their inheritance to continue to hold back others.

    This is the problem that quite a few on the right or left often don’t get their head around. The catch 22 of providing incentive by letting peeps earn more, but then this results in holding things back as they use the proceeds to stack the deck…

  49. I’m about to put up a new post anyway, but can I draw a line under this inequality debate (or, indeed, debating whether you are personally think doctors should be compelled to work). As ever, this isn’t a venue for debating each other’s views on policies.

  50. NORTHERNRURALMODEOMAN

    My point is I want to study hard work hard, be rewarded for calculated risks in business and end up with a better standard of living than someone who does’t.

    I’m afraid it is not within your will power (or anyone else’s). Standards of living in the UK have nothing to do with hard work/study what have you – hence the fallacy or the conservative, liberal and social democratic arguments. You can’t have both market economy and your wish (unless we introduce 100% inheritance task, uniform education, housing, income, etc for everyone so that the next generation could meet your requirements).

    Also, you are making the assumption that the free riders are such because of their choice or personality. It is not true even even for kids, let alone for adults (although some people may fall in the category).

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