YouGov have put out their first Welsh poll of the campaign, conducted for ITV Wales and Cardiff University. Topline figures, with changes from the previous YouGov Wales poll in January, are CON 40%(+12), LAB 30%(-3), LDEM 8%(-1), Plaid 13%(nc), UKIP 6%(-7). Fieldwork was Wednesday to Friday last week.

These are, it’s fair to say, fairly startling figures. A twelve point increase for a party over a relatively short length of time is extremely unusual, but the direction of travel is the same as Britain as a whole. GB polls had the Tories around forty percent at the start of the year, and have them pushing towards fifty percent now. As in Britain as a whole, the reason seems to be largely the UKIP vote collapsing decisely towards the Tories.

The result is remarkable though because of Wales’ history – it is a Labour heartland, even more so than Scotland was before the SNP landslide. Wales has been consistently won by Labour since the 1930s. The only time the Tories have won Wales in modern political times is the 2009 European elections.

If these shares are repeated at a general election then on a uniform swing the Conservatives would gain 10 seats (taking them to 21, an overall majority of the seats in Wales), Labour would lose 10, there would be no change for the Lib Dems or Plaid. The Tory gains would be much of North East Wales, including Wrexham, both the Newport seats and two Cardiff seats, pushing Labour back to little more than the South Wales valleys.

Roger Scully’s write up is here.

There was also a new ICM poll for the Guardian out earlier today, with fieldwork conducted between Friday-Monday. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 27%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 7%, GRN 3% – full tabs are here.


206 Responses to “YouGov Welsh poll – CON 40, LAB 30, LD 8, Plaid 13, UKIP 6”

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  1. @Carfrew

    Point well made..Yes you’re right but I don’t equate only earnings value to having good standard of living although many do.

  2. @ SEA CHANGE

    “That could allow the Tories to possibly win Brighton Pavilion”

    Well known bookmaker saying:
    Green 1/10 Conservative 11/2

    Interestingly, Green’s also favourites in Bristol West.
    Green 5/4 Labour 15/8 Liberal Democrat 2/1

  3. @REDRICH

    “A large section of Lab voters/supporters are completely demoralised – and having written off any chance of winning see the only silver lining being Corbyn’s removal and therefore calculate best to abstain/ or vote for another centre left party.”

    I think few would disagree that many Lab voters/supporters are completely demoralised and want to see Corbyn’s removal. But he has resisted going in circumstances that few other leaders would attempt – such as when most of his MP’s vote no confidence in him or terrible by-election performance such as in Feb. Simply abstaining now may not be enough. If Labour are going to lose anyway, the bigger the defeat the greater the chance of forcing the removal of Corbyn and his ilk from their powerbase in the party.

    Anecdotally those Labour voters I know locally are also fed up with Labour and will be voting LD. The seat is safe Tory with LD 2nd and Labour very distant 3rd.

  4. New thread guys

  5. baldbloke,
    “Anecdotally those Labour voters I know locally are also fed up with Labour and will be voting LD. The seat is safe Tory with LD 2nd and Labour very distant 3rd.”

    So you are saying that in an area where people tend strongly towards tories, Corbyn’s policies, generally considered further from those of the tories than labour mainstreams are, are not being well received? Is that a surprise, at any point in the last 100 years or so? Broadly, the argument how libs might benefit from the current situation has been that they are generally closer to tory views than is labour, so are a more natural alternative for those tory inclined?

  6. @Jonesinbangor

    I agree it is only an outside possibility. But on their current polling, it might be doable if it was sustained.

    @Redritch

    How can one not! :) All too predictable. Car Crash TV

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