ITV’s Peston show had some fresh ICM polling this morning. Topline voting intention figures were CON 48%(+2), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc), GRN 3%(-1), so don’t show any significant change since their snap poll on the day of the election announcement, fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday.

Thre was also a poll in the Sunday Express. Voting intentions were reported as CON 42%, LAB 26%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. The poll was conducted by Norstat – a company that normally polls in Norway and Denmark, but who I don’t think have previously released British voting intention figures. There are not yet any details of methodology, how it was sampled or weighted, how turnout was dealt with and so on.

Finally, the YouGov/Sunday Times poll from last night is now up on their site here.


256 Responses to “ICM/ITV – CON 48, LAB 26, LDEM 10, UKIP 8”

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  1. COLIN

    “Anyway I will watch with interest his clash with French Unions as he tries to cut the Public Sector Headcount & relax Labour Employment Laws-then we will both know whether he is a Socialist or not :-)”

    I remember trying to close a factory in France when I was working. I retired before the job was finished!

  2. TOH
    Snap!

  3. The UK has always refused (as a member of NATO) to state that it would not use nuclear weapons first.

  4. I’ll tell you the reality of how this is panning-out in the real world.

    I am 60 years old. I am a member of Plaid Cymru and I go out campaigning for them etc etc and have been for the forth-coming council elections. I consider myself a traditional working class left-wing pro-welsh independence republican.

    I have never, ever, in my entire life ever even considered voting Tory.

    However, just this once I will be lending Theresa May my vote in June. BREXIT is far far bigger than party idealogies. We have gt to get on with it and we have got to be seen as having a strong pro-BREXIT government in power.

    And I know I’m not the only one that’s doing likewise. I know Plaid and Labour councillors, Plaid members and Plaid and Labour voters that will, in the secrecy of the booth, be putting their cross against the tory candidate. I even know some Lib Dems that will be doing likewise.

    Personally, I think the level of Tory support is understated.

    Leanne Wood doesn’t seem to have any idea what’s going on in her pwn grass roots support and I would be very very surprised if Plaid increased it’s seats.

  5. It seems that even with two elections due in the next 6 weeks, and opinion polls bursting forth like dandelion seeds, we still have to have a stale re-hash of the referendum debate.

    This will probably be the most extraordinary electoral period of my life. The unthinkable eclipse of Labour in Scotland may turn out to be the opening act for a dramatic decline in the rest of the UK. The Tories may potentially be looking at the greatest electoral triumph of the last century.

    Or alternatively the pollsters may be lining themselves up for another humiliating misstep.

    All of the debate about whether May is any good, whether Corbyn is any good, whether Scotland is on the verge of independence etc is about to pronounced upon by the voters. I am not all that interested in whether contributors agree with whatever the public pronounces.

  6. First time I have posted on here in more than a year.

    But having accurately predicted 2015 by – admittedly rather tongue-in-cheek – sticking my neck out, I believe I should do so again.

    Last time I felt the pollsters were underestimating the Tories and the strength of economic perception in defining elections. I now think that whilst the pollsters will be more accurate than last time, I don’t think the changes made will mean that they have corrected sufficiently to stop the Tories from being slightly underestimated again.

    My predictions are as follows:

    Con 50% (410 seats)
    Lab 25% (150 seats)
    LibDem 13% (14 seats)
    UKIP 4% (0 seats)
    Other 8% (76 seats)

    For my native Scotland:

    Con 32% (10 seats)
    Lab 14% (0 seats)
    LibDem 8% (3 seats)
    SNP 44% (46 seats)

    I make these predictions as somebody genuinely shocked at some of the people who have been telling me they’ll vote Tory in this election; people that have previously sworn at me on the doorstep for even knocking on their door with a blue sticker on.

  7. @Cymru Rydd,

    That’s fascinating. I presume you were a “Leave” voter? Or do you simply want to deal a death-blow to this interminable debate?

  8. Robin
    I may have dreamt it but I seem to recall that May was asked whether she would push the button if the UK was under nuclear attack, some months ago and by an SNP chappy. She answered unequivocally, ‘yes’.
    On this lunchtimes programme, the shadow defence secretary went out of her way to make clear what Labour policy was, is and will be but the irony of having the leader of the party openly disagreeing with the official party policy and refusing to carry it out, on such a critical issue, will not be lost on voters.
    His implication on Marr was that he would rather invite the aggressor round for a chat and a cream tea, (i.e. Surrender) before responding in kind.
    For Labour, the more they allow him on TV, the more of a disaster it will be for them on June 8th.
    Candy
    Agree with your earlier post. I posted yesterday that on average it takes 15 years for Labour and Tories to go from near annihilation to back in power. 2032 GE will be Labours, under Starmer, or a fellow centrist. By which time, the SNP will have declined and Scotland will also, once again be a battle between Labour and Tory. The start of the SNP decline is this coming election.

  9. @Peter Cairns

    If a country launches a conventional cruise missile attack that wipes out British command and control, then WW3 has already begun.

  10. Colin,

    The discussion at 37min.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08nxsbr/the-andrew-marr-show-23042017

    He says, the Commanders should await further orders and no first use.

    Both of which are perfectly logical coherent positions.

    Peter.

  11. @NEIL A
    That’s fascinating. I presume you were a “Leave” voter? Or do you simply want to deal a death-blow to this interminable debate?

    Both. However I was very pro-EU and even went out campaigning for Remain until about 10 days before the referendum when I suddenly realised the EU was nothing more than a scam..

  12. Imperium3,

    “If a country launches a conventional cruise missile attack that wipes out British command and control, then WW3 has already begun.”

    But it’s not yet gone nuclear and from the point of view of the Trident commander a Cyber attack could cause the same blackout.

    The problem with relying on a weapon of last resort ,with devastating consequences, is that it it’s no use when the is conflict limited.

    Are we going to Nuke Moscow because Terrorists, Criminals of Anonymous have temporarily taken down the computers that control our communications.

    Peter.

  13. CYMRU RYDD

    “Both. However I was very pro-EU and even went out campaigning for Remain until about 10 days before the referendum when I suddenly realised the EU was nothing more than a scam..”

    Glad you avoided being conned.

  14. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Glad you avoided being conned.

    So am I.

  15. PETER CAIRNS

    The answer to a question about use of nuclear deterrent-ie a weapon to be used in retaliation & defence-is not ” I would never authorise first use”.

    I conclude from that answer that either :-

    * He does not understand the strategic objectives of a nuclear deterrent.
    * He resorts to a non sequitur in order to avoid saying that he wouldn’t authorise uts use in defence either.

    It seems to me that either of the above place him in a difficult position -and I would suggest that similar obfuscation can be detected in his answers to the Al Baghdadi question. He refuses to say that he would authorise a drone kill-but says that “of course” the world would be a better place if he were “not around”. One is bound to conclude that provided someone else does the dirty work for him Mr Corbyn is happy to rest on his absolutist laurels.

    It remains to be seen what the electorate make of this version of “Leadership of The Nation”.

  16. CYMRU RYDD

    What an interesting contribution !!

  17. It’s fine to say ‘I am against nuclear weapons and if I am elected prime minister I will immediately and unilaterally disarm’

    But if you don’t say that you have to agree to ‘push the button’ and have to say the letter will contain orders to fire – on whom might be a little less certain so it is all a bit ridiculous – but you have to say it. You might actually write in the letter try and save yourself and what’s left of the world and under no circumstances fire the weapon – but you have to say you would fire them.

    The problem is Corbyn clearly would never fire a nuclear weapon so if he is PM we don’t have a deterrent – which is fine by me but not with his party.

  18. ITV have just put up the Welsh poll. Wow!

    Con 40
    Lab 30
    PC 13
    LD 8
    UKIP 6
    Green 2
    Other 1

    They say it equates to 10 gains for the Tories,

  19. @Cymru Rydd

    Wales poll coming up in 10 minutes – exciting

  20. CYMRU RYDD

    What you have posted is very interesting and is something that I suspected might happen and if it does, it will deliver a landslide for TM. I can imagine it happening in the Midlands and the north too. And it may never get picked up in polling because like you say, it will be in the privacy of the booth and you would never admit it in public, other than anonymously, like here.

    The majority of the country has accepted that Brexit will happen, they just want it to happen. There is no going back and a landslide result will send a message to the EU that the people are fully behind May and strengthen her hand considerably. As a consequence, my view is that turnout in the GE will be high, driven by the Brexit issue and I’m not sure that the locals, where turnout will be much lower, will predict the scale of what is to come. Time for a little bet perhaps? All in my opinion of course.

  21. CYMRU RYDD

    According to that ITV Poll, the “temporary” Tories you revealed just now are not so shy after all.

  22. @Robert Newark

    I meant to ask you – were you expecting Le Pen to top the poll in your comune? Or did people disguise their intent?

  23. ROBERT

    An interesting idea.

    Election night is going to be electric.

  24. Some of this polling is seismic:-

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-04-24/shock-poll-suggests-tories-ahead-in-wales/

    1918 was a long time ago !

  25. This whole ‘strengthen May’s hand’ stuff is nonsense. Most EU parliaments are PR it makes no difference to the EU May having a huge majority or not. Voters are being fooled again.

    What it will allow is May to escape scrutiny or opposition on the terms of Brexit and even more worrying the terms of the trade deals she is so eager to sign.

    I can understand why English and Welsh having voted Brexit want to get on with it and make it a success but think seriously about handing such power to a very right wing Tory government.

    The problem is that I can’t imagine people in the privacy of the polling booth thinking ‘no I can’t risk an unfettered Tory government I am going to vote for Corbyn’. Corbyn seems to be too unpopular. They might vote LibDem or Green.

    In retrospect it is a pity Labour didn’t split last year a new centrist party might have stood a chance.

  26. the zeal of the apostate is not a good measure of attitudes.

  27. COUPER

    Don’t think you’re being fair to May.

    She is strengthening her hand at home, so she can push through the type of Brexit she wants without risking opposition from a) the opposition and b) her own MPs.

    If she has a wafer-thing majority, as now, and tries to push through a ‘soft Brexit’ or a ‘hard Brexit, her Parliament might fight her tooth and nail on the nitty gritty. Her demands will be restricted by both the EU and her government.

  28. Reposted from Cardiff C thread. A point I have made before –

    The problem with Wales polling is that it does not take into account the different battles.-
    Lab v Con in the south and north-east
    Lab v PC in the north-west
    Lab v PC v Con in the north and south west
    LD v Con in Powys
    LD v PC in Ceredigion
    and the vast amount of tactical voting that goes on as a result (eg Tories voting LD in Ceredigion and PC voting LD in Montgomeryshire)
    .
    This poll is very good for the Tories and I would expect them to pick up quite a few seats but it does not really give a good guide as to which.

  29. @Kester Leek

    That is my point you are handing Tories untrammelled power for 5 years on a ‘red, white and blue Brexit’. No one knows the terms of Brexit or the terms of the trade deals.

    It is very likely that the NHS will be part of the trade deal with Trump, do you seriously not want any opposition to that?

    What about workers rights do you seriously want no opposition to repealing maternity pay or anything else the Tories decide.

    You are handing the Tories the power to shape UK in their image and after 5 years there will be no going back.

    The problem is even if you thought – ‘You know I’d like to peg her back a bit make sure it doesn’t get too extreme Labour is not a credible opposition’ – that’s the tragedy.

  30. Good Afternoon all from Bournemouth East Seat, where I think the Tory PPC, Tobias Ellwood is probably going to win on June 8th. IMO as we say here.

    The Welsh Poll news is interesting shall we agree?

    In 1935 just before the GE Mr Bevin (TGWU founder, and later on Churchill’s Minister of Labour and then Attlee’s Foreign Sec) destroyed Lansbury the pacifist from London; so ‘Clem’ got the post as PLP leader, saving the Party from a fate that might have been worse than 1931 for Labour.

    I think a similar salvivic act may not happen this year.

  31. @CYMRU RYDD

    I echo your comment and what you are finding. I am in the north and staunch long-time working class labour voters are switching their vote to conservatives for this election only. Because they voted brexit, they Trust May to deliver this and want to give her the strongest position for entering the brexit negotiations.

    They also think Corbyn is useless.

  32. @CYMRU RYDD

    An interesting perspective, thanks for the contribution. I have to say anecdotally I am getting the same feedback and from surprising quarters as well. Brexiteers appear absolutely committed to making this happen from across the political spectrum and Tory Remainers are, for the most part, staying on board the Tory Train. If this vibe continues the result could be seismic.

  33. COLIN.
    Hello to you.
    I am giving a presentation in my new school on the 1918 Coupon Election in the context of the 2017 GE.

    In my view: LG was prepared to destroy the party which made him in order to stay in power. The ‘Unionists’ as they were called South and North of ‘the border’ exploited the situation to stay in power, de facto, until 1940, with the exceptions of Macdonald’s minority administrations.

  34. COUPER2802

    I have a similar opinion. However, apart from spitting in the wind I have no power to influence Brexit so I am left with influencing how much Brexit affects me.

  35. @COUPER2802

    You lost the referendum. Remainer denial, interference and thrats to thwart and water it down have caused this election. Bask in it – you caused it. You reap what you sow and deservedly.

  36. CL 1945

    Hi-I’m sure your students will enjoy it.

    I know nothing about those events-but I get the impression that you see a repeat of the Kamikaze intent in the Labour Party today.

    It is certainly a very very interesting prospect-JC’s 9th June explanation of why he should continue as leader.

    This Election will be the most interesting I have watched-and there have been a few of them !!!

  37. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’ve been seeing/hearing the sentiment “there’s nobody else to vote for” quite often of late.

    The implication being that the Conservatives are currently seen as the only party capable of government and hence worth voting for. A 50% vote for them does seem within reach.

    Elections are always fascinating, but this one more than most.

  38. Candy
    The population of my commune is only 650’ish. Some of those are children under 18 and a good few are Expats, mainly Brits, who can’t vote in the national election. The top three were were fairly evenly split to be honest with her top. I don’t know what the turnout was, I’m not sure the website reported it by commune.

    This is a very agricultural area but part of what used to belong to England in days of old and also very close to the border between occupied France & Vichy France, during the war. It doesn’t surprise me that she was top, farmers are very conservative with a small c. That is, until they decide to have a barbecue on the motorway. Then they can be very radical.

    The locals are very well disposed to Brits. There is a sneaking admiration for the Brexit vote from some and it is a fact that overall, 49% in the country as a whole, voted for anti EU candidates. Whilst Macron will likely win the second round, it is by no means a foregone conclusion. It’s his to lose and he is a centrist with plans to get rid of the 35 hour week and reform the employment laws all of which is desperately needed. But She’s the one with socialist policies. Junker will not sleep easy just yet.

  39. Colin
    “It is certainly a very very interesting prospect-JC’s 9th June explanation of why he should continue as leader.”

    Largest party membership in Europe, elected by the members as per party rules, need to stay in order to pursue true socialism. Is that about it?

  40. @Colin, Pete B

    “Have achieved aim of making Labour the largest (ineffective) protest group in Europe”?

  41. PETE B. Good Evening to you. Your summary is it. IMO. Therefore there are three possibilities after JC 2 carries on as leader.

    i. The PLP votes to revert to pre 1972 situation when it was independent, legally, of the wider movement. (TIGMOO)- that stands for the rhetoric: ‘This great movement of ours’
    ii. K Starmer challenges JC and wins pre October Conference.
    iii. JC retires after Conference with the rule change under the McDonnell amendment to the Party Constitution. Under the ballot for the new leader K Starmer wins against a candidate from the ‘Socialist’ group in the Commons. (The amendment is seeking to reduce the % of nominations from the PLP and Peers)

  42. @Cymru Rydd

    Don’t worry about me I will be happily living in a social democratic,independent Scotland in the EU before the end of the next Parliament. My warnings are for England and Wales:

    To paraphrase a Welsh Labour Leader:

    If Teresa May wins in June, I warn you not to be ordinary. I warn you not to be young. I warn you not to fall ill. And I warn you not to grow old

  43. @Robert Newark

    Many thanks!

    Has Macron figured out how he is going to govern (assuming he wins), given he has no people in the French assembly? I understand his new party will be contesting all the seats, but how likely is it that they can oust the Republicans and the Socialists?

    If he can’t get anyone elected, I presume he’ll do deals with the other parties to get stuff through?

  44. Cymru Rydd: “You lost the referendum. Remainer denial, interference and thrats to thwart and water it down have caused this election. Bask in it – you caused it. You reap what you sow and deservedly.”

    Always good t see a new contributor here. So, welcome. But could I respectfully suggest that you read the comments policy?

    As for, “You reap what you sow and deservedly,” this is at least a view of Brexit which remainers can subscribe to.

  45. @Chrislane1945

    Any chance of Corbyn resigning straight after locals?
    It is risky but Keir Stammer can’t do any worse

  46. @Robin

    “Have achieved the aim of getting rid of the ‘Red Tories’ from the party
    (and in the process trashed the brand for a generation) “

  47. I suspect the turning point in the decision to hold a GE was the Labour party’s policy of voting against the Brexit deal in parliament.

    May doesn’t want the massive headache of trying to juggle a tiny majority (which may be subject to pressure from the expenses issue), a hostile opposition, a bolshy UKIP-lite faction and the disapproval of the Tory Remainers.

    Who can blame her? If Labour had put forward a more realistic basis for supporting the final Brexit vote, they might have saved themselves from the slaughter.

    Given that it was Sir Keir who put forward this policy… perhaps it is not completely unconnected that he is being touted as the likely eventual beneficiary?

  48. If the polls are correct (and by all evidence they are) on the nature of these elections, then Labour can’t really do anything. It hasn’t been able to move the debate to domestic politics (so, unless the Conservatives make the error, let’s say because of overconfidence), Labour has no chance as a result of its stance of Brexit (again with a conflict between the views of their leader and the PLP – it also seems to me that the most ardent JC supporters don’t know that he is pro-Brexit).

    As a scenario, it would be feasible to contemplate that on the 5th of May, after a catastrophic Labour performance Corbyn leaves, and the shock of somebody new prevents the landslide. But then it is highly risky for the new candidate – safer to wait.

    So, Tory complacence is Labour’s only hope (and the incumbency advantage – only 12 Labour MPs resigned).

    In my view Sturgeon outperformed Corbyn at the Scottish TUC conference – so, there goes radicalism too.

  49. @Neil A

    And Keir Stammer’s 7(?) tests for supporting her including ‘the same access to the single market as we have now’ which is not going to happen.

  50. @Couper

    Exactly.

    The Labour party has (effectively) committed itself to voting “No” to the final Brexit deal. This little reported fact changed everything, in my opinion.

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