ITV’s Peston show had some fresh ICM polling this morning. Topline voting intention figures were CON 48%(+2), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc), GRN 3%(-1), so don’t show any significant change since their snap poll on the day of the election announcement, fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday.

Thre was also a poll in the Sunday Express. Voting intentions were reported as CON 42%, LAB 26%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. The poll was conducted by Norstat – a company that normally polls in Norway and Denmark, but who I don’t think have previously released British voting intention figures. There are not yet any details of methodology, how it was sampled or weighted, how turnout was dealt with and so on.

Finally, the YouGov/Sunday Times poll from last night is now up on their site here.


256 Responses to “ICM/ITV – CON 48, LAB 26, LDEM 10, UKIP 8”

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  1. May ahead of Corbyn on NHS !!!
    ( You Gov Poll)

  2. Seems that May’s threat to cut pensions might have moved the Tories from the high to the low forties.

  3. Anthony

    Is that “Total in England” column new? and will YG continue with it. I approve!

    Con 52% : Lab 26% : LD 13% : UKIP 6%

    I’m assuming that these rounded figures hide the decimal points which make that a perfectly proportioned set of numbers?

  4. “Seems that May’s threat to cut pensions might have moved the Tories from the high to the low forties.”

    Indeed- ’48’ is “low forties”… :-) !!

  5. I think he means the 42% quoted above in the Sunday Express

  6. May hasn’t threatened to cut pensions – she’s suggesting the triple lock is removed (which was and still is opposed by Labour and the Lib Dems anyway). This will result in them not being cut, but only rising as fast as the government sees as prudent.

  7. COLIN

    “May ahead of Corbyn on NHS !!!
    ( You Gov Poll)”

    I posted the same earlier. I could not believe it. It would appear that at last the voters are beginning to understand that there is no simple answer to solving the NHS problems.

  8. Bluebob

    Sorry to hear about your rotovater. I use spade and shovel mysef. I actually enjoy digging.

    We can both look forward to two nights of election coverage in the next six weeks.

  9. I think there was an occasion late autumn when the May was ahead of Labour on the NHS.

    If you look at the table, it is mainly a split between left and right combined with remain and leave, glazed by a toxin called Corbyn.

  10. well election night will be boring with a landslide exit poll.
    the council elections could be a bit more interesting

  11. Im still saying wait for more polls done after the 21st, Might see a Tory drop. With the very poor start they have had and if in continues this election will be much closer than everyone expects which will make for a very boring election night with very little changing hands. The torys need to keep the tripple lock and come out with something better on tax hikes.

  12. @Albert

    I don’t think anybody could accuse the 1983 or the 1997 landslides as being boring. Big names falling, the swingometer going crazy, angry tirades.

  13. @ TOH

    At my age I have to look after myself, im 46 this year :)

  14. Repeated due to moderation:
    Does anyone know where I can get a spreadsheet with all the GE 2015 constituency results on?
    I downloaded one last time round, and fancy trying to look at the effect of the various swings by constituency.

  15. Survations Scottish voting intentions for Westminster Glasgow sample of the poll SNP 45% Tories 24.1% Labour 19.1% LibDems 7.7% Other 4.1%

    Surely not!!

  16. bobinnorfolk

    Based on Anthony’s previous strictures, I think he would prefer comments on Scottish polls to be confined to the Saltire thread.

  17. Glasgow used to have Conservatives.

    Theresa May sounds sometimes like she wants to return to the old style type of working-class Tory supporter that one used to encounter in Liverpool and Glasgow and places like that; perhaps this pitch has fallen on fertile soil north of the border??

  18. Glasgow used to have Conservatives.

    Theresa May sounds sometimes like she wants to return to the old style type of working-class Tory supporter that one used to encounter in Liverpool and Glasgow and places like that; perhaps this pitch has fallen on fertile soil north of the border??

  19. Oops. I apologize for those remarks pertaining to north of border; please think of them as being more about the working class point than a north of border point.

  20. Many things can change in the weeks leading up to election day but it’s starting to look quite ominous for any party that is not Tory or SNP.

  21. BLUEBOB

    When you get to my age (77) your actually greatful that you can wield a spade & shovel.

    :-)

  22. BLUEBOB

    If the Tories do make a few gains in Scotland I would not have thought that the First Minister will be that happy.

  23. BLUEBOB & OLDNAT

    Sorry i should not comment here about Scottish politics.

  24. Electoral Calculus have a predicted result of Conservative majority of 170, with Labour down to 161. I think we can safely say any party getting over 45% these days is due a landslide victory.

    Interesting to see a new polling company this time (Norstat): I think it a good thing that we have as many polls and differing methodologies as possible, after all that gives a better chance of one of them being right.

    As for that place north of England, I will just say that a rising tide lifts all boats. Unless they’re red.

  25. These are exciting times.

    I didn’t think I’d ever see TM ahead on the NHS. Maybe they should just go ahead after the election and break up and privatise the entire system.

    It would potentially detoxify the health issue for them and once it’s done I can’t see Labour ever reversing the change.

  26. Cloudspotter – There is one on the British Election Study’s website and one on the Electoral Commission’s site

  27. If these Polls are a) correct & b) sustained , this GE is going to rival 1983.

    I still find these numbers hard to believe.

  28. TOH
    ‘Sorry i should not comment here about Scottish politics.’

    I could be completely wrong but I do not think all talk of Scottish politics is banned in non Scottish poll threads, the problem I saw was that every new thread was being taken over/bickering that was not making this site an enjoyable place to visit.

    As I say though, could be way off the mark and only AW can answer that.

  29. I had assumed the ” Scottish” distinction was whether we are discussing Westminster Politics -or Holyrood Politics.

    We can hardly discuss Westminster Polling without mentioning the 59 northern most constituencies of the United Kingdom.

  30. May following Milliband policies seems popular capping energy prices.When labour announced it in 2014 was seen as nearly communist.However it does look like a reverse of 1997 in seat numbers.It seems it is all about leadership not policies as ever.Blair was a great salesman.

  31. Blue Bob

    ” I do not think all talk of Scottish politics is banned in non Scottish poll threads,”

    That’s my understanding too – but also that, where there is a Saltire thread, that’s where discussions about specifically Scottish politics should be held.

    Your comment I saw as being fine, as you were just referring to the 2 parties in GB that looked like having lots of MPs!

    If Anthony gets his scythe out, we’ll know we were wrong!

  32. Colin

    “We can hardly discuss Westminster Polling without mentioning the 59 northern most constituencies of the United Kingdom.”

    To be fair, many (probably most) of the comments here do precisely that! :-)

    There’s even less mention of the constituencies in that other big island to the west, or the bit the Roger Scully keeps us informed of.

  33. OldNat/BlueBob/Colin – don’t worry about it too much. It’s a problem when there’s not much happening and conversation drifts, in the midst of an election campaign when there are lots of threads, lots of stuff to talk about, probably not so much.

    That said, anything very specific about Scottish politics it might be an idea to put on the Scottish thread so it doesn’t get lost in GB discussion!

  34. Macron v Le Pen

    Established Parties rejected.

  35. France

    First official estimate after extraordinary campaign: Macron (23.7%) and Le Pen (21%) through to 2nd round of French presidential election

  36. Anthony

    Thanks for that.

  37. Colin

    Harris Poll says she came 3rd. Exit polls not in agreement with each other.

  38. BAZ–This is from France 24 live-it isn’t an exit poll-it is based on actual votes counted in early counts .

    France has moved to the right according to France 24.

    Pollsters look like they got it correctly.

  39. It seems appropriate that the Conspiracy Theorist candidate Jacques Cheminade came last with less than 0.5% of the vote.

    it was, of course, a conspiracy!

  40. Good evening all from a sunny Itchen Valley in rural Hampshire.

    Poll after poll after poll after poll and still no Lib/Dem surge!!
    The Lib/Dems were delighted to have an early election because they saw it as an opportunity to make some gains on the backs of disgruntled remain voters, well if anything the voters are snubbing them Dems en masse.

    The UK election in Scotland (see how I snuck in UK election in Scotland as not to upset a none Saltire thread) ;-) looks interesting and I think it’s inevitable the SNP will lose some seats but I’m sure they will hold onto at least 50 + seats. There is a heck of a lot of undecided voters in Scotland and would working class Labour voters in Scotland really tactically vote Tory?

    It’s all fascinating stuff but the big one in Scotland must surely be if the SNP can boot Labour out of Glasgow, that really would put the shutters down on the Northern bit of the UK Labour party.

  41. Colin

    Looks like Macron, a staunch europhile then for president, as he is expected to beat Le Pen in the second round That won’t help TM when it comes to the negotiations, but not a surprise.

  42. OldNat
    ‘It seems appropriate that the Conspiracy Theorist candidate Jacques Cheminade came last with less than 0.5% of the vote.

    it was, of course, a conspiracy!’

    That tickled me far more than it should have :)

  43. KEITHP
    Electoral Calculus have a predicted result of Conservative majority of 170, with Labour down to 161. I think we can safely say any party getting over 45% these days is due a landslide victory
    ____________

    That would be quite a result. The Con’s majority would be larger than the actual main opposition party in terms of seats.

  44. Allan Christie

    “would working class Labour voters in Scotland really tactically vote Tory? ”

    Down Ibrox way, the Lodge had their working class Tory voters voting tactically for Labour, for years!

    Now, they can go home (and I don’t mean to Belfast) :-)

  45. Keith,
    Forgive my pedantry but EC don’t predict results they say what it would produce based on current polling?

    Can’t see over 45% myself but if the Election was this coming Thursday it would be close to that level.

  46. OLDNAT

    “Down Ibrox way, the Lodge had their working class Tory voters voting tactically for Labour, for years!”
    _________

    Speaking of Ibrox, great result for the Hoops and on course for the domestic treble…

    It would be more palatable for working class Tories to tactically vote Labour but working class Labour voters switching to Tory would really be another nail in the coffin for northern Labour.

    Over the next seven weeks, I reckon the main political news will be Labour’s demise in Scotland in terms of local and Westminster elections, the size of the Tories majority and stalemate for the Lib/Dems.

  47. Allan Christie

    I was at Hampden yesterday, and hoping to get a ticket for the Final – can’t see us stopping Celtic getting the treble, though.

  48. It’s a real shame that the weighting and regionalisation of these numbers is IP. Were it public domain then there might actually be some true insight to be had from the numbers.

    In the mean time, I’d be more inclined to believe smaller agencies as they’re less likely to stick with their gameplan and biasing that ‘worked’ for the last 40 years (assuming you miss out all the times it didn’t like Brexit in 2016 or Election in 2015 or Scotland in 2014 when they thought it was a knife-edge)

    My cartoon for the election
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GoLcuEhcZo

  49. The French opinion polls got the first round pretty right. If, as they predict, Macron (centrist Europhile banker) wins the second round, the Brexit negotiations will become very painful indeed. Macro will be targeting the City of London no doubt about that at all.

  50. @Colin

    [Geographical pedantry]

    Sitting here in Durham, north of the bottom bits of Scotland and still with an hour-and-a-half’s drive north to the border at Berwick, and roughly level with Carrickfergus across the North Channel, I’d just point out that the northernmost 59 constituencies have a good degree of overlap with Scotland, but they’re not directly analogous.

    ;)

    [End geographical pedantry]

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