ITV’s Peston show had some fresh ICM polling this morning. Topline voting intention figures were CON 48%(+2), LAB 26%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), UKIP 8%(nc), GRN 3%(-1), so don’t show any significant change since their snap poll on the day of the election announcement, fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday.

Thre was also a poll in the Sunday Express. Voting intentions were reported as CON 42%, LAB 26%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. The poll was conducted by Norstat – a company that normally polls in Norway and Denmark, but who I don’t think have previously released British voting intention figures. There are not yet any details of methodology, how it was sampled or weighted, how turnout was dealt with and so on.

Finally, the YouGov/Sunday Times poll from last night is now up on their site here.

256 Responses to “ICM/ITV – CON 48, LAB 26, LDEM 10, UKIP 8”

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  1. @AC

    12% of the vote and 12 MPs represents the low end of my expectations for the LibDems in this GE. The high end is 20% and 20 MPs.

    The difficulty is deciding on what is a good comparator and I am inclined to look at 1987 or 1992 as the closest similar elections. In the former the Tories were expected to win easily; the latter was less clearcut at the time, but in hindsight Labour could be seen as not having completed their journey to electability. In both those elections the Liberal/SDP Alliance (1987) and the Liberal Democrats (1992) polled just over 20% and returned around 20 MPs.

    Your assumption that the LibDems should be picking up much of the Remain vote is dubious, because most people will be voting in this election on the basis of a Party’s entire manifesto, not on a single issue. We had a single issue election in the EU referendum last year. For many Remainers on the left, the LibDems are still toxic because of their association with the Tories in the Coalition. They may vote, as in Richmond, to get rid of an even worse Tory but firmly holding their noses when they do so.

    It is also simplistic to assume that the LibDems can quickly get back to their 50-60 seat level that they were at between 2005-2015. I suspect that to do so will require extensive tactical voting, which can only come when Labour have realised that they could be out of power for decades unless they embrace electoral reform (even the Roy Jenkins AV+ model) and come to an agreement with other left-of-centre parties like the LibDems and the Greens not to stand against each other in constituencies where another party has a better chance of defeating the Tories. FPTP works well when there are two parties in each constituency. That realisation will not come until after this election, and perhaps not until after 2022.

  2. I think Corbyn will stay on to the end and drag Labour into the depths of election despair.

  3. Candy
    “Has Macron figured out how he is going to govern (assuming he wins), given he has no people in the French assembly? I understand his new party will be contesting all the seats, but how likely is it that they can oust the Republicans and the Socialists?
    If he can’t get anyone elected, I presume he’ll do deals with the other parties to get stuff through?”

    Well Le Pen has only 2 MPs. I guess he hopes that, with his movement on the march as it were, he will win seats in the assembly elections. If the worm has turned (against the ruling elite) then why would it not produce MPs for him, as well as his own election as President? He has policies which would appeal to both left and right, so he might manage ok if he didn’t win many seats but there will be a lot of horse trading and then does he become part of the ruling elite? Interesting times.

    He seems a very personable individual, sort of Blair like he was in 1997 (not as now). If the LDs had someone like him to lead them, instead of the happy, clappy, chappy, with the everlasting grin, they might be getting somewhere.

    As for Macrons effect on the eu. Expect to see a ressurection of the Franco/German axis, which will not please the Eastern European countries, or indeed make TMs job any easier in the negotiations.

  4. The second leadership election allows Corbyn supporters to blame the PLP for creating disunity and for not advocating his platform with sufficient vigour.

  5. joseph1832,
    “I would be more worried about papers like the Guardian who positively welcome every sign that the will be uncompromising.

    In terms of language and tone, Macron said that Brexit was a “crime” that will bring us “servitude”.”

    In this era I find it rather early to be counting Macron’s victory, just as I do May’s. But the tone from Europe appears to be one of greater unity because of Brexit. I havn’t followed Macron’s campaign, but I suspect the quote you ascribe to him is the same he would predict for France were it to choose Frexit. My understanding is that the French think so too.

    It would appear that Macron would likely mean a more united and europhile negotiating team over Brexit, but while some have argued this is bad news for UK hopes of a good outcome, rather I see it as essential the EU team be united, otherwise there will be no agreement on any deal for the UK.

    “As for my last line, most of the EU has made it clear that want us to be poorer.”

    This is completely wrong. Of course they do not. Trade will continue, and the poorer we are the less we will buy. But those economic issues are irrelevant, The key issue is what it has always been, that the EU is a club with rules and either it continues to exist along with all its rules, or it does not. They have no option to break their own rules to give the Uk a special deal. Leave seem unable to grasp this.

    “We’ve already had the reckoning. It was Brexit.”

    No. Brexit was a promised solution, not a reckoning. The reckoning will come if the solution fails to be one.

    “Well voters have already decided on a direction – they want to return sovereignty to Parliament which then frees the current Parliament and all future Parliaments to make decisions based on the conditions of the day. They feel this is the most flexible arrangement for the long term survival of the nation.”

    Cant say I have ever seen either a voter explain this, or even a pollster making such a complex conclusion based upon research.

  6. Corbyn’s real problem is Labour members/voters have already given up. They know he has literally no chance. And they know a large Tory majority is a certainty.

    So, you might find a situation where Labour voters actually want as big a Tory majority as possible, just to get rid of Corbyn. So they can start again.

    Reminds me very much of 1997, where huge numbers of lifelong Tory voters, voted for Blair, because they were that desperate to get rid of the Tory leadership

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