As well as the Opinium poll I’ve already written about, there is also a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times tonight. In addition there’s a Panelbase poll of Scotland for the Sunday Times.

The ComRes poll has topline figures of CON 50%(+4), LAB 25%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 7%(-2), GRN 3%(-1). It echoes the same pattern we’ve seen in every other poll conducted since the general election was announced – UKIP dropping, the Conservatives increasing, and a huge lead for the Tories. The fifty point share for the Conservatives is apprently the highest ComRes have ever shown for anyone, though the last time any poll showed it was, I think, MORI giving the Conservatives 52% in 2008. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: YouGov‘s Sunday Times poll has topline figures for Great Britain of CON 48%(nc), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2) – changes are from the YouGov/Times poll in the week. UKIP are continuing to fall, 5% is the lowest YouGov have shown them for five years. According to Tim Shipman the Panelbase/Sunday Times Scottish survey is also very strong for the Tories, I’ll update when it appears.

UPDATE2: There is also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. Survation topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 29%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. Changes from the last Survation poll in January are Conservatives up two, Labour unchanged, the Lib Dems up one and UKIP down two. The hyperbolic Mail on Sunday headline about the Tory lead being halved appears to be based on comparing it to the ICM poll conducted straight after the election was called. As ever one should only compare polls from the same company conducted using the same methodology – otherwise it’s just as likely that any difference is down to different methodological approaches (there are significant differences between how ICM and Survation weight their data, model turnout and deal with don’t knows).

However, ignoring the Mail’s write up and taking the Survation poll on its own merits, it is showing a tighter race than the other polls – Labour and UKIP are a couple of points higher than other companies’ figures, the Conservatives lower. The fieldwork was a little later (conducted on Friday and Saturday), but time will tell if it’s because the Tory lead has peaked and dropped or just because of methodological differences. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Meanwhile the Survation/Sunday Post poll of Scotland has topline figures of SNP 43%(-7), CON 28%(+13), LAB 18%(-6), LDEM 9%(+1). Changes are from the 2015 general election – if repeated they would reflect a drop in the SNP lead and a very significant advance for the Scottish Tories, making them the clear second party in Scotland. A Panelbase/Sunday Times poll of Scotland is also due out overnight – I’ll update on that tomorrow.


129 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. OLDNAT

    The Scotland votes website has the SNP losing Perth and North Perthshire and Moray. I can’t see the SNP losing those two.

  2. Why is the Mail on Sunday commenting on an 11 point drop in Tory support by comparing polls by 2 different companies. Surely that is not a “fair” / accurate comparison?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html

  3. ROLL A HARD SIX

    “Good grief – I didn’t realise that all us enthusiasts for tartan politics were quite so fond of Scotland Votes. It is a good bit of fun”

    “You can’t beat watching the map change colour depending, on the wishes of your electorate”
    ____

    That’s true, just for fun I gave UKIP 100% and Scotland ended up looking like a big beetroot ;-)

  4. Prof Howard

    You asked about why the Tory vote was increasing. That trend has been obvious in polling since 2015, if you look at the tables that have been published – former SLab voters have been moving to SCon.

    Once we see the tables for these polls, we’ll be able to see that kind of detail about the drop in the SNP vote, and maybe get an insight into the churn.

  5. I’m assuming that there is not a ground swell of support for the Tories in Glasgow, Motherwell or Grangemouth. Therefore I presume the increase in Tory Scotland is concentrated in seats they are more competitive in?

  6. goaroundnow – Because they are crap at reporting polls :)

  7. New here…
    Hi!
    How do you get a post out of “moderation”?
    Cheers!

  8. I think it is out now!

  9. Why is the Mail on Sunday commenting on an 11 point drop in Tory support by comparing polls by 2 different companies. Surely that is not a “fair” / accurate comparison?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4436044/Tory-lead-slashed-half-tax-U-turn.html

  10. @anthony

    Thanks. Seems a little odd for a Tory leaning paper to engineer a negative headline when most other papers are reporting the strong leads.

  11. Anthony
    You’ve certainly been busy tonight! I went away for a few hours and there’s three new threads! After the recent relatively quiet time I guess it’ll be pretty busy from now on.
    ————————————————————-
    Anyway, I agree with those that are sceptical that the Tories will end up with 50%. It’s possible of course but the last time anyone got that %ge in a GE was 1931!

  12. The Sun also had a negative headline yesterday.

    Murdoch trying to make May clear she will need his support with some early shots across the bow?

    If May has a 100+ majority, influence over her will be much harder.

  13. Jamie

    “Therefore I presume the increase in Tory Scotland is concentrated in seats they are more competitive in?”

    They had better hope so!

    Under FPTP, picking up extra votes in the north of Glasgow does them no good at all.

    I suspect (though we need to see the tables0 that the anti-SNP tactical voting which was advocated by Unionists in 2015 didn’t work – because it wasn’t clear which Unionist had the best chance.

    If these voters are now clear that voting SCon is the best way, SLab and SLD voters may have moved disproportionately to SCon in the seats that Scotland Votes suggests they can win.

    Though with all seat prediction sites, we have no idea whether the algorithm they use is right.

  14. The Tory surge in Scotland is easily explained

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPvOhIWcH3w

    “Finally, there are also some indications that the SNP vote may be splitting along EU referendum lines. They only managed to retain 55% of their 2015 voters who supported Leave compared with 83% of their voters who supported Remain”

    Its those Scotland Brexit voters that want to make sure they get their Brexit, Then once they get their Brexit and England collapses they can get their independence.

  15. Re: Survation poll:

    It looks wrong. However, that’s only because the Tory score is too low and the Ukip vote too high. The rest of the parties’ scores are broadly in line with other recent polls.

  16. Richard

    Thanks for the link. I knew Wave 10 had been released, but hadn’t seen any analysis of it.

    That would explain the drop in SNP vote, but wouldn’t be enough on its own to explain the SCon rise – which remains strongly connected with capturing the Unionist vote.

  17. If there is a Tory swing in Scotland of all places, is there any reason to doubt the swing in the rest of the country?

    If Scottish seats come into play for the Tories, then it could be a very big win indeed. Doubtless a lot depends on where the votes lie, of course. But a doubling since the general election is going to have some effect in seats.

  18. @Oldnat

    Well if I was a die hard “I want Scotland led by Scotland”, not England, and not the EU, I would be voting Tory now for the reasons explained.

    1. The Tories guarantee a hard Brexit, so I get rid of EU rule, and
    2. A hard Brexit guarantees lots of economic pain as companies relocate, with corresponding Tory cuts in services to balance the books, so ensures a Yes vote next time round.

    Its simply a strategic vote.

  19. Conversation

    Tim Shipman? @ShippersUnbound

    Sunday Times Scotland/Panelbase poll

    John Curtice analysis of our poll shows Tories on course for 12 seats in Scotland.

    Labour wiped out
    10:40 PM · Apr 22, 2017
    566 RETWEETS
    319 LIKES

    Highly unlikely IMO

  20. I think all this big poll leads will do the Tories no good.

    If they want to increase turnout, and tactically squeeze Leave voters to them, they won’t want to give the impression they are coasting.

  21. I would say Brexit has simply reinforced a trend that began when SNP broke out in 2014/5, rather than broken anything.

    SLab isn’t different enough, so people were always logically going to switch to SCon once SNP’s advantage became embedded.

    I’d expect the Tories to hit the low-30s sometime soon.

  22. Richard:

    “Its those Scotland Brexit voters that want to make sure they get their Brexit, Then once they get their Brexit and England collapses they can get their independence.”

    I dare say there are some SNP voters who voted Brexit following Littlefinger’s dictum about chaos being a ladder to climb.

    But perhaps there are a significant number who actually don’t like the EU. There the Jim Sillars-types who always thought that independence in the EU was an oxymoron.

    Also, are the SNP-voting Leavers likely to be SNP-voting, but not Indy-voting? In which case there may be Scots about to make a one-off Tory vote, crossing their fingers, and hoping their hand doesn’t fall off in protest.

    I dare say there are studies on this, which others will know about.

  23. On Survation’s GB poll, if it is right it is because it has got its methodology right (and everyone else is wrong, which is quite possible.)

    But it won’t be because of the bad headlines leading to a sudden opinion shift. Opinion does not shift because the public does not pay that much attention. (This is probably the most important lesson this site has taught me.)

  24. Labour ended up with 40.7% in 2001 after having received huge leads in opinion polls during that year’s campaign.

    However, if there’s any hard evidence that makes me think the opinion polls really are closer to the mark this time, it is the Copeland by-election result from just two months ago: a 6.7% swing. Even during the 1997-2001 Parliament, Labour should have easily picked up Uxbridge, Beckenham and Eddisbury based on the poll ratings they were getting – but they did not.

  25. The Survation poll is interesting.

    Last time Survation polled was in January.

    There was no difference at that time between Survation’s results and other polling companies including YouGov.

    Is it possible that Survation has picked up ambivalence in Tory support – whether as a consequence of pensioner taxation fears or/and Brexit polarisation?

  26. For an incumbent government, this level of support is unprecedented.

  27. Mike Smithson has just clarified that the Survation GB poll was a phone poll, all other GB polls today were conducted online.

    Shy Tories?

  28. Tancred
    A bit of an exaggeration. It’s just the local chairman in one constituency. G’night all.

  29. Interesting article here from a rather obscure financial advisory company:

    https://www.capitalandconflict.com/brexit/theresa-mays-crafty-brexit-betrayal/

    They claim that May is actually planning a soft Brexit and will use her increased majority to silence objections within her party.

    I believe this is utter nonsense and think the complete opposite – that she will do the hardest possible Brexit and will silence opposition in the same way. I suspect that she wants to be remembered as the PM who took us out of Europe and this is her main motivation for her. The election was called partly to destroy Labour in parliament and partly to ensure that any internal dissent is silenced.

  30. cameron isn’t even in politics anymore, but his referendum has destroyed labour,increased cons vote even in scotland

  31. @RICHARD

    “Its those Scotland Brexit voters that want to make sure they get their Brexit, Then once they get their Brexit and England collapses they can get their independence.”

    I don’t agree. Ordinary voters are not sufficiently intelligent to work out such complicated strategies. The main reason the Tories in Scotland are reviving is that the Conservatives are now uniting ALL Brexiteers, and also because the Conservatives have a very low base in Scotland anyway, so they can only go up.

  32. Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 44% (-3)
    CON: 33% (+5)
    LAB: 13% (-1)
    LDEM: 5% (+1)

    (via Panelbase)
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2017

  33. Tancred

    Good to see that you still have lucid moments:-)

  34. ST/Panelbase Scotland poll
    Change from 2015

    SNP 44% (-6)
    Con 33% (+18)
    Lab 13% (-11)
    Lib Dems 5% (-2)

  35. The Panelbase numbers in Scotland are extraordinary for the Tories.

  36. Obviously compared to what they got in 2015. They can still narrow the gap with SNP even further IMO.

  37. For OLDNAT and ALLAN CHRISTIE:

    Scotland Votes says this could equate to –

    SNP – 46 (-10)
    Con – 12 (+11)
    LD – 1 (0)
    Lab – 0 (-1)

    Whereas Electoral Calculus says this equates to –

    SNP – 44 (-12)
    Con – 14 (+13)
    LD – 1 (0)
    Lab – 0 (-1)

  38. These polling numbers show to me that Scotland will become a Labour-free zone in June.

    A 3% swing Lab to SNP takes Edinburgh South.

  39. @MACTAVISH

    “The Panelbase numbers in Scotland are extraordinary for the Tories.”

    Not really. 38% in Scotland voted for Brexit – and this is the ‘Brexit election’.

  40. A lot of these 45%+ Tory VI’s are very gaudy but wont materialise in June. I think their ceiling is 42-43 and they need a perfect campaign plus some serious screw-ups from JC to make that, most likely 40-41 is where it will end up. Similarly, Labour will rebound to 28-29 likely and their hard floor is probably 26ish if everything goes wrong. Combined with some LD rebound it looks like giving the Con’s a 50-60 Maj. If the boundary review had happened it would have been closer to 90.

  41. TM will have noted the anti-tory headline in the sun and mail on sunday.She does not strike me as the forgiving sort. She may well have to remind them that this chap called Leverson wrote a report and inquire as to whether they have read it . She might care to remind them that she will have to take some decisions about it in the next parliament.
    they might also care to discuss her forgiving nature with some Guy who but 9 months ago was chancellor of the 5th largest Economy in the world and the annointed successor to be Prime Minister. Now ,this Guy, his name escapes me, is an ex minister,ex mp and is the current editor of a parochial London newspaper… oh i remember now.. Ozymandias or something beginning with O.

  42. I suspect the Survation survey is the nearest to the truth. They have a record of being so I seem to recall. Their results also tend to correspond with the “grapevine”… After the first shock response to the announcement of the election UKIP supporters, in particular, have had second thoughts and seem to be grouping around a policy of sending a strong message to Mrs. May. Add to that the own goals scored by Mrs May and Phillip Hammond over the last few days and it would be surprising indeed if the weird results from other polling organisations were even remotely close to the truth. I think closer scrutiny of WHEN the groundwork was done is worthwhile. I strongly suspect the Unionist message will work in Scotland for the Tories.

  43. @GOAROUNDNOW
    Re. Mail on Sunday

    You have to remember the Daily Mail and the Mail on Sunday have different editors and editorial policy. The Mail online does not clearly distinguish this..

    Geordie Greig (Mail on Sunday) is an ardent Remainer while Paul Dacre (Daily Mail) is the Brexiteer in Chief and now unofficial director of Tory Party policy…

    It was quite amusing in the referendum campaign to see six days of unremitting straight bananas, thieving Roma, small businessmen committing suicide because of EU regulations etc etc only for an friendly interview with David Cameron or some CBI Remainer to appear at 12.01 on Sunday morning!

  44. MacTavish

    “The Panelbase numbers in Scotland are extraordinary for the Tories.”

    Not altogether extraordinary.

    Since last month’s Panelbase Scottish poll, SCon have certainly made significant progress, from all other parties – but along the lines that we already knew of.

    Changes since March : VI : (seat predictions – gain/loss)

    SNP -3% (-8)
    Con +5% (+8)
    LD -2% (nc)
    Lab -1% (nc)

    Under FPTP, comparatively small changes in VI can significantly affect seat distribution (especially when a party on the rise gets near the “tipping point”).

    During the forthcoming campaign, that trend might continue, stay constant, or fall back a bit.

    But that’s why we follow polling!

  45. Tancred

    Or, to put it another way, this level of stupidity within the British people is unprecedented.

    I actually witnessed a collapse of a political system (and in my capacity I fought both for and against it, and I can assure you that blaming the electorate is a bad idea.

  46. Re: Daily mail – both the Daily and the Sunday are trying to downplay the Tory lead. The DM on Friday was full of stories about the polls being wrong, and this election is close, and the Sunday Mail continues the theme.

    explained here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour

    “The only cause for concern in Tory circles is the growing sense that the Conservatives are heading for a comfortable victory at Labour’s expense. Tory strategists fear this might tempt some floating voters to lose their “fear of Corbyn” and to choose other parties to ensure a more equal distribution of MPs in the Commons.”

    The Tories have a well rehearsed playbook from 2015 – fear of the SNP running the country, and apparently there is a whole dossier about top labour leaders waiting to be released according to the NS to spike the “fear of Jeremy”.

    That whole playbook falls apart if no one believes Labour is any threat.

    So paradoxically we are now going to be entertained with stories about how close this election is going to be, with facts skewed to make the case as in the case of the SM story.

    We have such good press in this country..free press and all…

  47. RAF – the Survation tables say it was conducted online: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/MOS-GE-Tables-I-2c0d7h2-2004SWCH.pdf

  48. Happy St George’s Day to those in England.

  49. Very different prospects for the Lib Dems in those two Scottish polls… The Survation poll has them gaining Edinburgh W and Dunbartonshire E…

    Neither looks very good for Sturgeon however..

  50. I’m not sure why people say that the conservatives had a bad start, apart from being forced off the Brexit thing. Everybody knows that the tax revenue must grow – and considering that it is vis a vis Labour’s propositions, it is quite neutral.

    As to Labour – the flurry of (kinds of) policy announcements in the first half of April suggests that they would have known May’s announcement well in advance, and in a (not very satisfactory) way it would explain Corbyn’s behaviour.

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