As well as the Opinium poll I’ve already written about, there is also a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times tonight. In addition there’s a Panelbase poll of Scotland for the Sunday Times.

The ComRes poll has topline figures of CON 50%(+4), LAB 25%(nc), LDEM 11%(nc), UKIP 7%(-2), GRN 3%(-1). It echoes the same pattern we’ve seen in every other poll conducted since the general election was announced – UKIP dropping, the Conservatives increasing, and a huge lead for the Tories. The fifty point share for the Conservatives is apprently the highest ComRes have ever shown for anyone, though the last time any poll showed it was, I think, MORI giving the Conservatives 52% in 2008. Full tabs are here.

UPDATE: YouGov‘s Sunday Times poll has topline figures for Great Britain of CON 48%(nc), LAB 25%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2) – changes are from the YouGov/Times poll in the week. UKIP are continuing to fall, 5% is the lowest YouGov have shown them for five years. According to Tim Shipman the Panelbase/Sunday Times Scottish survey is also very strong for the Tories, I’ll update when it appears.

UPDATE2: There is also a Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. Survation topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 29%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%. Changes from the last Survation poll in January are Conservatives up two, Labour unchanged, the Lib Dems up one and UKIP down two. The hyperbolic Mail on Sunday headline about the Tory lead being halved appears to be based on comparing it to the ICM poll conducted straight after the election was called. As ever one should only compare polls from the same company conducted using the same methodology – otherwise it’s just as likely that any difference is down to different methodological approaches (there are significant differences between how ICM and Survation weight their data, model turnout and deal with don’t knows).

However, ignoring the Mail’s write up and taking the Survation poll on its own merits, it is showing a tighter race than the other polls – Labour and UKIP are a couple of points higher than other companies’ figures, the Conservatives lower. The fieldwork was a little later (conducted on Friday and Saturday), but time will tell if it’s because the Tory lead has peaked and dropped or just because of methodological differences. Tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Meanwhile the Survation/Sunday Post poll of Scotland has topline figures of SNP 43%(-7), CON 28%(+13), LAB 18%(-6), LDEM 9%(+1). Changes are from the 2015 general election – if repeated they would reflect a drop in the SNP lead and a very significant advance for the Scottish Tories, making them the clear second party in Scotland. A Panelbase/Sunday Times poll of Scotland is also due out overnight – I’ll update on that tomorrow.


129 Responses to “YouGov, ComRes and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. Anyone want to increase their predictions? Ha!

    How many seats could this give them? 450?

  2. Really not good for our democracy.

  3. The figures at the moment need to be treated with a great deal of scepticism. Labour will end up with something like 30 percent of the vote

  4. It is rather like the 1997 capaign in reverse. There were quite a few polls giving Labour leads of 25% – 31%.

  5. Huge lead for conservatives opening up. Strong start to the campaign from TM and Cons.

  6. @ RUDYARD

    I don’t think you can say this isn’t good for democracy because this *is* democracy!

  7. The Tories will be closer to 40% than 50% when the votes are counted. It always happens that way.

  8. Harry

    Not necessarily. 50% of voters could mean 75% of MPs

  9. Yg no change except Lab up 1….a surge starting?!

  10. Really, this is not like like 1997. every indication is that this is on a different scale. The results are after Labour / JC did OK in the first moments after the anouncement.

  11. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (-)
    LAB: 25% (+1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)

    (via YouGov)

  12. Jamie
    If you wish to check the polling figures for the 1997 election, they are readily available on this site!

  13. Interesting that Yougov has Labour up by 2% over the last week whereas Opinium has them falling 3%.

  14. @Graham

    I suspect that Opinium is slightly behind the curve. Their latest figures reflect what the other pollsters were saying a few days ago.

  15. A 50% vote for the Tories would let them get most of the MPs. I don’t think they can hold this support at that level for the next few weeks unless Corbyn says or does something utterly stupid.

  16. This is a political system disintegrating.

    If the Tories get >75% of MPs on 50% of the vote with a deeply divided electorate that means big trouble.

  17. “According to Tim Shipman the Panelbase/Sunday Times Scottish survey is also very strong for the Tories, I’ll update when it appears.”

    Anyone know why the Conservatives are doing so well north of the border?

  18. I wonder how many of the UKIP-Tory movers where Labour in 2010?

  19. These polls might not be accurate for the election (many weeks to go yet), but if it ends up as a big Conservative win then people will remember them as being accurate.

    If, however, it is a narrow win or even something closer – then really people will not believe polls at all anymore.

    If I were the polling companies I would be cutting back on the ‘shy Tory’ effect, which might now be amplifying things in the wrong direction. Maybe the pollsters are fighting this election using the data adjustment figures which worked on the previous one. That might not be the best system to use this time.

  20. There is no doubt that LD / UKIP crossover has happened but it has been mainly caused by UKIP falling rather than LD rising as was happening a while back.

  21. Good evening all from a fine evening here in Stevenage. Babysitting duties on a Saturday night…Och aye…

    Anyway onto polling….Woooooooooooooffffffff this is a whopper of a poll for the Tories. I doubt they will poll 50% come June but all polls are showing the Tories well over 40% and Labour stuck in the mid-twenties, a bit like myself.

    Tim Ferret of the Lib/Dems must be wondering with the Tories polling this high where his gains are going to come from? If Labour do poll nearer to 30% and the Tories between 40&45% in June then the Lib/Dems may actually end up with less seats than they won back in 2015.

  22. Profhoward –

    I don’t *know*, but my guess is that it’s the main voting cleavage in Scotland moving away from the old economic and class divides that have normally defined British politics towards an Independence vs Unionist divide, and the Scottish Conservatives being seen as the most effective Unionist party. Ruth Davidson polls extremely well too

  23. AW

    The Scottish poll is already up.

    Opinium National Poll in Scotland SNP 43% CON 32% LAB 14% LDEM 8%

  24. ‘There is no doubt that LD / UKIP crossover has happened but it has been mainly caused by UKIP falling rather than LD rising as was happening a while back.’

    Similarly the jump in the Tory lead is largely due to an increase in Tory support rather than a Labour collapse. With Yougov Labour has been hovering around 25% since beginning of December.

  25. Prof Howard

    “Anyone know why the Conservatives are doing so well north of the border?”

    Because people who formerly voted SLab now intend to vote SCon.

    It’s the point that Anthony made on the last thread about FPTP elections.

  26. Allan Christie – nope, those are just the crossbreak from the Opinium GB poll, not a proper Scottish poll. There are supposedly two actual Scottish polls tonight, Panelbase and Survation.

  27. AC
    I think that is just a crossbreak.

  28. Graham

    Yeah there are some key differences though. The main one being that as we now know, at that time the Tory share was understated in the polls and labour over stated…. So the polls were wrong . The point being that those high leads in 1997 were ‘fake news’. There were other important differences. John Major is very different in standing to JC. Labour was in opposition.

  29. Britain Elects? @britainelects 3m
    3 minutes ago

    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (+2)
    LAB: 29% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-2)

    (via Survation / chgs with Jan

  30. Survation:
    Con 40
    Lab 29
    LD 11
    UK 11

  31. Odd result from Survation

  32. Survation poll shows Tory lead at 11% with Tories at 40% , Lab at 29%.

  33. Westminster voting intention for Scotland:

    SNP 43%
    CON 28%
    LAB 18%
    LD 9%
    OTHER 2%

    (Survation / Sunday Post)

  34. Allan Christie

    Those numbers are from the Opinium UK crossbreak. It’s been suggested that they also have a proper Scottish poll.

  35. I doubt an election campaign will make the SNP vote much smaller – a Westminster election is not going to make those who want independence vote for a unionist party. I think the politics now are Scottish constituency by Scottish constituency and unionist parties trying to argue they have the best chance of defeating the SNP in each seat.

    If there is much movement in how the SNP are polling…then I am wrong!

  36. ANTHONY WELLS

    Ok, it was Lord Ashcroft’s tweet I seen. Never realised it was a cross break.

  37. Westminster voting intention for Scotland:

    SNP 43%
    CON 28%
    LAB 18%
    LD 9%
    OTHER 2%

    (Survation / Sunday Post #GE17)

  38. Jamie
    There is a clear tendency for massive leads for one party not to fully materialise in the ballot box. I offer four examples – the elections of – 2001 – 1997 – 1983 – and 1966. Some would add Oct 1974 to that list. Will we see the same pattern in 2017? Time will tell.

  39. So the 4 polls tonight give an average of
    Con 46.75
    Lab 26.25
    LD 11.25
    UKIP 8.0
    Green 3.0 (from only 2 of them)

    With 2 with the Con / Lab figures very different

    Apologies for any errors due to too much wine.

  40. ROLL A HARD SIX

    Those Survation Scottish numbers would give (according to Scotland Votes)

    SNP 43 (-9)
    Con 8 (+7)
    LD 3 (+2)
    Lab 1 (nc)

  41. OLDNAT

    Yup – I suspect we were both having fun inputting the figures into Scotland Votes at the same time….!!

    R.A.H.S.

  42. Labour are in terrible trouble. One feels sorry for them almost, but is this is the Blair Legacy?

  43. A stellar set of results for the Tories across the board. They would surely gain a few in Scotland on that (and assuming their vote is concentrated in certain areas).

  44. Sorry

    SNP 47 (-9) (Bazinwales – I’m on Rioja!)

  45. Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 43% (-7)
    CON: 28% (+13)
    LAB: 18% (-6)
    LDEM: 9% (+1)

    (via Survation / chgs with GE2015)

    This is a proper poll..

    According to Scotland votes the following seats

    SNP…47 (-9)
    TORY…8 (+7)
    LABOUR…1 (-)
    LIB/DEM…3 (+2)

  46. Oldnat

    Would it be fair to say that the Survation poll suggests a drop of SNP support relative to 2015 ge and that this clashes somewhat with the answer you gave me whereby the rise of the Conservative vote is down to a switch from Labour s?

  47. @BazinWales

    The only thing I take from the Survation Westminster poll is that the Ukip fall is real. Survation were the pollster that accurately predicted the Ukip surge last time (although they may have overstated it).

  48. Off to bed now. Not much wiser about the likely election result except UKIP seem to be declining.

  49. Thomas, it’s obvious why Scotland will have at least double figure MPs in Scotland. Aside from the cities, they don’t want Independence. I’ve just returned from a Scottish holiday with friends in the rural west. We were there before the election was called. My friend was adamant then that the SNP and Sturgeon were reviled in all areas like his, and it looks like he’s right – returning Conservative MPs in Scotland will send a thumping message to Sturgeon, Corbyn and kill off the SNP for another referendum.

  50. OLDNAT / ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Good grief – I didn’t realise that all us enthusiasts for tartan politics were quite so fond of Scotland Votes. It is a good bit of fun.

    You can’t beat watching the map change colour depending, on the wishes of your electorate.

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