Opinium have a new poll in the Observer this evening. Topline voting intention figures with changes from a week ago are CON 45%(+7), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 11%(+4), UKIP 9%(-5).

Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.

Full tabs are here.


16 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 45%, LAB 26%, LD 11%, UKIP 9%”

  1. first? many ukip voters will vote tory to secure brexit … bit of a nightmare for labour.

  2. Without a real prospect in front of them, most people are not thinking too much about electoral politics (election junkies excepted). It’s not surprising then that polling about an actual election can produce very different results to questions about an hypothetical one.

    The commentary by Opinium quoted in the Guardian makes sense – UKIP voters are falling in line behind Conservatives (“job done”), while Labour is losing its remain voters to the LibDems.

    What will be interesting next, is what happens to the previously high number of “don’t knows”. Usually, they fall in line with their past voting history. With Labour facing an electoral disaster, they may have a problem persuading their previous supporters to fall so readily into line.

  3. Opinium catching up with the rest.

    Again we see the Tories appearing mainly to gain from Ukip. It’s still not clear to me that this does then a lot of good.

  4. Wait till we get a poll from that was done after the 20th, Corbyn and labour have had a good start, May and the torys pretty awful. Even the sun attacking them on the front page today. Though I doubt it will make much difference could take a couple of points off the torys

  5. @ RAF

    Ukip votes will not help much if they are in the south but if they are in the north…

  6. LDem up four is interesting too – unless Opinium have changed their methodology this would indicate other pollsters may show 14-15%, as Opinium have been consistently 3-4% behind the others for LDems…

    Also ‘Others’ are down two – could SNP/Green be dropping back a bit?

  7. Agree with RAF. Opinium now falling into line. I suspect a change of weighting or methodology. LD clearly above UKIP now.

  8. In my patch (Batley and Spen) the seat is looking like going to the Conservatives. In part the 9,000 UKIP votes in 2015 turning blue are very important in achieving this.

    Dewsbury is also a likely Labour loss too.

  9. BFR

    Green -2 in this poll

  10. BazinWales – There is no sign of any, though Opinium really don’t include much methodology detail in their polls these days. BPC rules are now that we are supposed to flag up whenever there is any change in our methods since our previous poll.

  11. At the last election, a lot of people were slow to catch on to how few seats the LibDems were going to get. The assumption was that their strongholds would perform differently, but the reality was that the lost votes had to be coming from somewhere, and this had to include where they used to have a lot of votes.

    I think many who are saying that the current polls might not benefit the Tories much in terms of seats are falling into the same trap. The votes cannot all be going to nice safe seats where the LibDems couldn’t touch them anyway. It will include movements to place them out of reach of tactical voting, or to overturn Labour majorities. Also, the modest increases in LibDem polling are unlikely to be sufficiently targeted.

    Of course, the polls may change radically. Tory Remainers might defect tactically in great numbers, as per Richmond. That would be the main threat to Theresa May.

    However, one awkwardness for Labour is that in an election campaign it is not enough to criticise the government. They are going to have to set out their strategy for negotiating with the EU if they are elected. That will include where they would disagree with the EU. That may be awkward – as, other than Saddiq Khan and the now retired Andy Burnham, I haven’t heard anything close to that from important Labour Remainers.

  12. LMZDEE

    Really!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! JC has been appalling even for him and Dawn Butler – well no chance,

    I am predicting 395 Tory seats and perhaps 12 for the LD’s just can not get any good odds on the latter.

  13. @BOBINNORFOLK

    Yes very bad start for the torys, May lost 2 spin doctors, refused to debate, banned journalists, Refused to rule out tax hikes, Won’t guarantee the tripple lock which effects there core older voter, Keeping 0.7% aid budget. Even the Sun and Mail have been attacking her.

    If they keep this up the poll gaps will come down and I think we might see a small difference in any polls done after the 22nd.

  14. Ukip have already said they won’t be standing in most seats this time round, which means all hardcore brexit going to the Tories.

  15. I now make the average of the latest polls from the 4 companies that have reported in April

    Con 46.25
    Lab 25.0
    LD 11.25
    UKIP 8.25
    Green 3.5

    With all the companies being well within the margin of errors.

  16. Unweighted figures, small sample crossbreaks and all that, but it’s interesting to look at the comparative UKIP drift to Labour from 2015 voting.

    From the whole sample of 1948:

    UKIP -> Con 88; Con -> UKIP 4 (Nett. +84 for the Conservatives)
    A loss of 31% of the 2015 UKIP share/gain of 15% of the 2015 Con share.

    UKIP -> Lab 7; Lab -> UKIP 23 (Nett. -19 for Labour)
    A gain of 7% of the 2015 UKIP share/loss of 3.5% of the 2015 Lab share.

    So, while the crossover of potential Con/UKIP voters may be bigger than Lab/UKIP, so there’s more to play for if you like, Labour are the ones who seem to have a “UKIP problem” at the minute, even if it’s a relatively small percentage of their overall vote base.

    In that sense in pragmatic political terms they might be very wise not to push their position any more pro-EU than it is at present, even if a majority of their supporters, or indeed voters, would wish it.