Just to follow up on the voting intention polls yesterday, there was also a new YouGov poll in this morning’s Times. Topline figures were CON 44%, LAB 23%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 10%. The twenty-one point lead is the same as the weekend’s ComRes poll and the largest YouGov have given the Tories in government (it also equals the highest the Lib Dems have hit since the election).

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104 Responses to “YouGov/Times: CON 44, LAB 23, LDEM 12, UKIP 10”

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  1. Is this the lowest Labour have polled in opposition?

    Correct me if I’m wrong, as I might well be (doing this from memory).

  2. Kester Leek

    Labour are in opposition? Doesn’t seem much like it.

  3. Two 21 point leads in a week, from different pollsters. Starting to look more than a blip

  4. I detect the emergence of a pattern. Purely my own theory but if Brexit is having any effect (and why wouldn’t it?) then leavers may feel that the Government is doing well in carrying out their mandate whilst remainers may regard the LDs as their best allies.
    I’m afraid that Labour are getting increasingly squeezed. They don’t adequately represent either of those two constituencies and might be becoming increasingly irrelevant, as are UKIP whose raison d’etre has been delivered on.

  5. Tragically, Labour are not being listened to.

    The country has turned away.

    It doesn’t want to know.

  6. With polling like this I wouldn’t be surprised if Corbyn turns out to be the baddie in Broadchurch!

    Peter.

  7. The ORB tables from their poll for the Torygraph are now available via their ORB DAILY TELEGRAPH POLL APRIL 2017 – PUBLIC APPROVAL FOR BREXIT PROCESS INCREASES IN WAKE OF ARTICLE 50 BUT FOCUS ON IMMIGRATION FALLS.

    As mentioned on the previous thread, the 54.7% approval is not for Brexit but for the Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations?

    Unsurprisingly, the tiny Scottish cross-break shows 36.9% approval.

  8. Rudyard

    In 2015, Tom Harris (ex-Lab MP) said that in Scotland “No one is listening to us any more”.

    He was right, of course. If nothing worth while is being said, why should anyone listen?

    Seems like the same thing is now happening in England – but unless the Greens or LDs can step up to the plate, it looks like you are destined for Tory hegemony for some time to come.

  9. Barbazenzero

    Thanks for the link.

    I noted the summary –

    Public approval of Brexit negotiations up 18% since November • Public confidence that we can actually reduce immigration has fallen • Free trade seen as priority over immigration control for the first time since November

    So it may be that the increased support for the negotiations is because some have come to recognise that the UK Government may be moving away from the xenophobic to the practical?

  10. Labour also hit 23% with Audience Selection in the 1983 campaign!

  11. OLDNAT
    So it may be that the increased support for the negotiations is because some have come to recognise that the UK Government may be moving away from the xenophobic to the practical?

    Let’s hope so!

    The Scottish cross-break is of course tiny, but I doubt it is wildly wrong on the p3 question:

    I think the Prime Minister will get the right deal for Britain in the Brexit negotiations

    GB: Agree 40.8% Disagree 35.0%
    Scotland: Agree 26.7% Disagree 52.1%

  12. Oldnat,

    Can you confirm those Scottish cross-breaks look suspiciously good for the Lib Dems at 10%? (almost the same as Labour and twice the Green vote). That might have pushed them from 11 to 12% overall? (That is to establish relevance on a non-tartan thread!)

  13. Well, there really were plenty of warnings, but what else is there to say?

    Abbot doing her slightly loopy best by suggesting Labour would be under 10% if it wasn’t for Corbyn.

    Daft, and getting dafter. Such a shame, and nothing but contempt for the man’s arrogance.

  14. If Labour is not prepared to act to save itself, it certainly does not deserve to be entrusted with office and the responsibilities associated with it.

  15. Turns out it wasn’t Corbyn after all.
    So he’s not to blame for everything then!!!!

    Peter.

  16. Andrew111
    Do you mean the YG crossbreak showing the LDs on 10%?

    That puts them much the same as rUK from Wales/English Midlands northwards. (also establishing relevance).

    While we all know that small non demographically balanced samples are, at best, indicative, it wouldn’t surprise me if the response to the family cap and rape clause had moved some opinion away from SCon to SLD among the more civilised part of the Unionist community.

    It certainly seems to be an issue that has energised many here compared with rUK.

    http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=195077

  17. Andrew111

    If the Family Cap has had an effect on VI in Scotland, it is notable that Kez was very supportive of Alison Thewliss’s campaign – but stayed very much in the background.

    An odd tactic, but one which might help to explain why the SLDs (and SGP outwith Westminster polls) may gain more votes than the remnants of SLab.

  18. JC comes in for a lot of stick on this site but i suggest that it is not so much Corbyn as Labour itself which is the problem. None of the alternative leadership candidates (original) could have dealt with a split party over EU membership or called it to a different effect. Once Gina Miller interfered they were always going to be damaged. Their best bet was to have let TM proceed under the prerogative and avoid exposing the schism that always was there between party and a large % of its core support.on top of that the quality of Labour Members seems to have declined as union influence in selection has increased although that might be a value judgement on my part.
    What is not in dispute is that the Corbyn analysis of Labour prospects of power has some validity. He will have looked at the electoral history and concluded that labour has not won a GE except under Blair since 1974 a period of 43 years and has lost under 5 other leaders.If he stood in 2020 under yet another tory lite manifesto he is entitled to believe that he would lose again.The only chance of a Labour victory in 2020 is if Brexit goes wrong and if he does win he will have the chance to put forward the only agenda he believes in.I would think less of him if given the opportunity he simply put forward policies he did not believe in.However ,this analysis implies a belief that there is no progressive alliance in the UK,indeed quite the reverse, and that Labour as a moderate left of centre party cannot come to power again

  19. JC (part 2)

    Nor was it JC who lost scotland for Labour.You do not hear much criticism for Milliband but it was clear even at the time of the election that scotland was a battleground. He preferred to fight the election on twitter with that t****r Brand. He also set up the electoral system which enabled JC to come to power.He could have simply adopted the killing machine that is the Tory process but oh no ! The mistakes of this “moderate” are legion and yet he escapes the criticism of JC who is at worst earnest but incompetent.

  20. S Thomas

    I’m presuming that you are using the term “progressive” the sense of being anti-Tory (or at least, mildly left of centre)?

    The term has been discussed on UKPR before, and it is something of a “Mom and apple pie” term.

    However, like others before me, I find myself in the surprising position of agreeing with much of your analysis!

    If ELab (or any other left of centre party in England) can’t bring itself to work with the SNP then, obviously, there can be no “UK” progressive alliance.

    More importantly, in UK terms – given the numerical dominance of the English polity – can any party construct an electoral appeal to sufficient of the English electorate in key seats, to produce a majority of MPs in the HoC when, the Tories are less popular than they currently are?

    People often vote for the party that they see as “least bad”, and ones that don’t demonstrate the capacity to form a competent government are likely to be seen as “more bad”.

  21. S Thomas

    Oh goodie! I can disagree with you again! :-)

    “it was clear even at the time of the election that scotland was a battleground”

    If you are talking about 2015, then Scotland was already lost to Labour – and the MPs who lost their seats would confirm that.

  22. old nat

    I had assumed that the family cap was a form of contraception rather that a benefits policy.:-)

  23. S Thomas

    Your assumption doesn’t surprise me.

  24. I must admit I am surprised to see this. I was thinking 25-26% was Labour’s floor. It seems worse than it was in the early 1980’s.

    I am seeing this “nobody’s listening to Labour” meme more and more. What a fate for a party that almost twenty years ago won a huge landslide.

  25. I wonder how much of a drag Cameron and/or Osborne were on Tory VI, if any. Seems without the ‘Bullingdon Effect’ the Tories are more able to woo traditional Labour votes, irrespective of Brexit considerations. Milliband was able to hold up the English VI against Cameron, doubt he would now.

    So Labour’s problems are not just Corbyn & Co., obviously. Though Corbyn is himself a born unpopulist, as his poll numbers show.

  26. LOOSERER

    I think you make very good point about the advantage for Con. VI of May rather than Cameron.

    Presumably a comparison of May’s & Cameron’s Approval ratings will tell the tale. This is very rarely quoted -TM v JC being the constant source of interest.

  27. Cameron was popular for quite a while. May will become unpopular in due course. Changing leader has helped the Tories, but the gaffes over deporting students etc show May is not as competent as people currently think..

    If if was Labour I would be taking out Facebook ads pointing out how poor her record was on actually reducing non EU immigration, her number one aim as Home Secretary.

  28. Oldnat
    Thanks. You are correct that the two child policy and rape clause did not resonate much in England for some reason. As often with these policies hard cases highlighted in the press in due course will make it unpopular in a year or two

  29. Colin,

    You are right, the polls show the story. Cameron’s approval ratings were poor in 2015/2016, even worse than Corbyn’s:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/08/camerons-ratings-now-lower-corbyns/

  30. Andrew111,

    The problem with immigration as an attack line for Labour is that people who are angry about that don’t believe that Labour would do/want to do any “better” than the Tories.

    The Tories used to have the same problem on the NHS and education under Blair/Brown.

  31. So enjoying the demise of Labour. If this continues, there will be even fewer Labour MPs to choose a leader from at the next election.

  32. OLDNAT

    Some may see right of Tory as “progressive” at least economically.

  33. @Looserer
    @Colin

    I agree – May is much more acceptable to ‘non-Tories’ than Cameron. This probably explains why the LDs have not benefitted that much from disaffected Kippers and Lab supporters. A surprising number have gone directly to the Tories.

    Meanwhile, Labour woes continue, and it is hard to see a way back. Clearly a new Leader will help, and a bounce will follow, but the problems are deep-seated. Britain needs a party to speak up for the vulnerable, disadvantaged and dispossessed, but that cannot be its only focus. Labour’s credibility with Mr. and Mrs. Average is shot – its as simple as that. Nobody is listening…

  34. I’m trying to remember the poster who used to tell us regularily that 38% was Labour’s moral core vote. Gave up posting after many arguments about morality in politics.

    He or she must be very upset at the moment.

  35. Just a note on methodology, and a question I have raised before – and go shot down for doing so!

    The questions regarding which party is best suited to addressing ‘the problems’, I am still of the opinion that there is a methodogical problem in that not all the ‘problems’ are dealt with by the same governments.

    For example, health, education and law and order are all devolved issues and I would humbly suggest that Yougov and others ought to divide their polling accordingly, making it clear to those being polled that their opinion is being sought either at a UK level or at the level of those who make policy.

    At the moment it is unclear as to whether those being polled are being asked for a UK wide assessment, or for an assessment of those actually charged with implementing policy at the devolved level (including, of course, England).

    As regards views expressed by others, like Old Nat I find myself in agreement with S Thomas, but also with ON’s comments on ST’s posts.

    Re: Milliband and Labour’s failure in 2015, I cannot have been the only person north of the Border who had been very willing to vote Labour (in suppport of a good local MP) until Milliband said that he didn’t care a fig what Scotland thought and his only concern was with Middle England. At that point I switched my vote.
    I shall be voting for Labour candidates in the forthcoming Local Elections, and for our excellent former SNP, now Independent, candidate, who was dropped by the SNP because he insisted on the freedom to vote as he saw fit, and not always in accordance with the party line.
    We need more people like him (in my humble opinion).

  36. May to make a no10 announcement at 11.15am. Election, war, death of the Queen or something entirely innocuous?

  37. My guess is an nhs announcement. Surely the current decline is politically dangerous for the gov.

  38. Rumour has it, that Theresa May will announce that she will resign as PM on completion of the 2 year Brexit period and that the Conservative party will elect a new leader in the run up to a May 2020 election.

    There has been media speculation saying this over the weekend, so perhaps May just wants to confirm it.

  39. @ S Thomas

    JC comes in for a lot of stick on this site but i suggest that it is not so much Corbyn as Labour itself which is the problem. None of the alternative leadership candidates (original) could have dealt with a split party over EU membership or called it to a different effect.
    ————————————————————————–

    I agree. Brexit is the gift that keeps on giving… unfortunately for the LP and tbh Andy, Yvette and Liz should thank their lucky stars that they didn’t pull the short straw.

  40. BBC saying GE according to guardian. Oh my nerves.

  41. No surprise that May wants to call a GE. She is stunnnigly ahead in the polls and people are being wonderfully conned about the joys of Brexit. All this while working age benefits and public sector salaries are frozen.
    Oh well – at least the LibDems will win a few more seats.

  42. snap election-Noooooooh!!!

  43. I think it is reckless when the country needs calm. And I havent recovered from the last ge and the US shocker yet.

  44. GE on June 8th – Labour stuck with Corbyn – the PLP will be having kittens now as they ponder how many seats they will lose – the end is certainly nigh for someone ????????

  45. Perhaps some in the PLP my be ruing their anti party tweeting and briefing too.
    If this challenge cant galvanize common purpose in the party surely nothing will.

  46. The good news for Labour is that although they will be smashed in the election, at least Corbyn will go.

  47. 2017 election.. see 1983.

  48. At least the frequency of polls will now increase – No rest for our host.

  49. Latest ICM
    Con 44
    Lab 26
    LD 10
    UKIP 11
    Grn 4

  50. I was thinking of anything positive formLabour, and perhaps there is one (maybe two).

    While UKIP polls around 10-12%, they had very few candidates for the local elections, and they have financial problems. So they may not be able to get anything like their polling figures.

    The other is the Tory-LibDem contests.

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