This week Phil Cowley at Queen Mary University of London released some new YouGov polling of London. Topline voting intention figures for London are CON 34%(-1), LAB 37%(-7), LDEM 14%(+6), UKIP 9%(+1) – changes are since the general election in 2015.
The most useful way to interpret regional voting intention polls is to see whether it is behaving similarly or differently to the country as whole. Does it suggest that any change in support is the much the same as everywhere else, or does it show a party is doing better or worse than in other parts of the country? There is often an assumption that London is the core of Jeremy Corbyn’s support and that’s where Labour will being doing best. In fact the polling suggests Labour are doing about as well in London as elsewhere. YouGov’s GB polls tend to show Labour at around 25%, down six points since the general election. This poll suggests a very similar seven point drop for Labour in London.
The more interesting figures are the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Across the country as a whole the Conservatives have gained support since the general election, but this poll suggests that’s not reflected in London. Equally, while many national polls suggest an improvement for the Lib Dems since 2015, it’s not as much as the six point increase this poll suggests has taken place in London. It’s not particularly surprising to find the Conservatives doing worse and the Lib Dems doing better in the one region of England that voted to remain in the European Union, but it’s nice to have evidence to actually back it up.
Full tabs are here.